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It's Back! 538 2020-21 Player Projections


NBASupes

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2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

The minute distribution seems way off on this, no?  I cannot imagine a scenario where Gallo and Hunter only play 17 minutes per game as they are projecting.  Cam gets 20 min a game?  And Kris Dunn gets no run?  Something is off there.   

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On 12/17/2020 at 3:53 PM, NBASupes said:

Hunter and Reddish projections aren't terrible but it's mucking up our projections because neither are expected to be much better than Prince or Tony Snell next year. If they are good or very good players. We should be one of the best teams in the NBA. 

Gwu > Reddish

Dunn > Hunter

Etc.

My eyebrow is raised.

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3 hours ago, AHF said:

Gwu > Reddish

Dunn > Hunter

Etc.

My eyebrow is raised.

Dunn is not shocking. He appears a lot more favorable than Hunter in all analytics because Hunter was overmatched for his role as he needed a year to adjust to the new position and then we played him far too many mins. 

Gwu > Reddish makes a lot of sense. Reddish had a negative rookie year. Gwu matches up favorably to rookies who had a lot of success as rookies. Once again, Reddish like Hunter didn't have good years as rookies. 

I didn't think much about it. I expected. I expected it to be even worse than it was, especially for Hunter. 

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On 12/17/2020 at 5:23 PM, gurpilo said:

I agree with their projections, is what I predicted as well. I think team is too young and we will have our ups and downs, we are not going to play to our full strength all games.

After watching all three preseason games. I think 8th-9th seed is fair but if Trae is what he was last year offensively with his new found defense, we are special. 

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On 12/18/2020 at 7:53 PM, NBASupes said:

Dunn is not shocking. He appears a lot more favorable than Hunter in all analytics because Hunter was overmatched for his role as he needed a year to adjust to the new position and then we played him far too many mins. 

Gwu > Reddish makes a lot of sense. Reddish had a negative rookie year. Gwu matches up favorably to rookies who had a lot of success as rookies. Once again, Reddish like Hunter didn't have good years as rookies. 

I didn't think much about it. I expected. I expected it to be even worse than it was, especially for Hunter. 

It is a failing of the metric to not account properly for growth at least IMO.  Reddish had a brutally terrible 2019.  Reddish had an excellent 2020.  (Same to a lesser degree for Hunter).  The metric can't track that develop and its projection likely gives the same weight to games in November as it did to games in February despite the very different context (the November games with someone who had been hurt for quite a while and was naturally rusty after missing the summer and preseason and the other a better reflection of his getting healthy and making an adjustment to the speed of the league).

Again, my eyebrow is raised for how much to rely on that metric for young players.

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Just checked on Trae who was in basically the same exact position as Reddish with a terrible 2018 and vastly improved 2019 (although no injury factor).  The metric couldn't distinguish between taking his lumps adjusting to the league in 2018 and the more meaningful baseline of play once adjusted in 2019.  It projected him at 2.7 WAR for the 2019-20 season.  Then gave him an actual rating almost 3x better at 7.2 WAR for the actual season.  

Projected him for a -0.5 RAPTOR and then he actually put up a +1.8 RAPTOR.

Those are both huge swings.  

Granted it is always going to be tough to project younger players but my eyebrows remain raised on how accurately it is going to project growth for our youngsters.

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On 12/17/2020 at 4:53 PM, NBASupes said:

Hunter and Reddish projections aren't terrible but it's mucking up our projections because neither are expected to be much better than Prince or Tony Snell next year. If they are good or very good players. We should be one of the best teams in the NBA. 

interesting!

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On 12/21/2020 at 11:58 AM, AHF said:

Just checked on Trae who was in basically the same exact position as Reddish with a terrible 2018 and vastly improved 2019 (although no injury factor).  The metric couldn't distinguish between taking his lumps adjusting to the league in 2018 and the more meaningful baseline of play once adjusted in 2019.  It projected him at 2.7 WAR for the 2019-20 season.  Then gave him an actual rating almost 3x better at 7.2 WAR for the actual season.  

Projected him for a -0.5 RAPTOR and then he actually put up a +1.8 RAPTOR.

Those are both huge swings.  

Granted it is always going to be tough to project younger players but my eyebrows remain raised on how accurately it is going to project growth for our youngsters.

Just looking at 2021 early metrics:

Trae while having little improvement on defense, has been much worse than his top 10 offensive status till more recently improving it of late. This makes him a top 70 player via WAR and a 100 overall for the RAPTOR. He is tied at 12th Offensive RAPTOR with LeBron James and Luka Doncic. 

Hunter who was one of the worst players in the NBA last year at 242 at the WAR and 237 RAPTOR. This year, he's been 24th overall at WAR and 34th overall at the RAPTOR. 

Cam improvement has been nice but nothing close to Hunter. His WAR is 116 and is a 132 at the RAPTOR. Last year, his WAR was 225 and his RAPTOR was 225. 

JC RAPTOR and WAR are on pace for this best in his career as well as Capela. While Gallinari WAR isn't impressive, his RAPTOR is the best on the team and 9th in the NBA for anyone playing more than playing more than 41 minutes this season. 

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