Snell will be squeezed out of minutes upon DAH & Cam's return for this reason

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

If there was ever any doubt whether there is correlation between eyeballing Snell's defensive performance and eyeballing his DRtg numbers, just go watch that highlight reel from the Suns game.

Torched, then torched some more. When he's not too far away from the shooter to have any effect, he's closing out and over-committing and watching the other guy rush right past him to the basket. Can't say it enough--he seems to have the body/build of so many decent-to-very-good wing defenders, but his lateral movement and his instincts are super sucky.

Coach is going to continue to start him, just a heads up. 

[sturt]

[AHF]

57 minutes ago, sturt said:

I'm happy you are both optimistic enough about the health of Dunn, Cam and Hunter and the level of play of everyone that you think Snell will be squeezed out of minutes!  That would be a very good thing for this team indeed.  I'm not counting on having a full range of choices anytime soon.

When we do have our full crew (although I can't even put Dunn in that mix yet given how difficult this return has been for him), I still think he will be a meaningful member of the rotation.  Of course having Hunter and a range of SG options including Dunn, Bogi, Huerter and Cam will mean fewer minutes than right now but I believe pretty strongly that he'll remain a significant part of the rotation.  There is a reason he averages 22 mpg for his career and it isn't because Bud, Dwayne Casey and Nate have no idea what they are doing.

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

There is a reason he averages 22 mpg for his career and it isn't because Bud, Dwayne Casey and Nate have no idea what they are doing.

SNAP!

[sturt]

Check your pms boys

[AHF]

15 hours ago, sturt said:

Check your pms boys

Replied briefly there but will be more than happy to discuss it in full here.

[AHF]

18 hours ago, AHF said:

I'm happy you are both optimistic enough about the health of Dunn, Cam and Hunter and the level of play of everyone that you think Snell will be squeezed out of minutes!  That would be a very good thing for this team indeed.  I'm not counting on having a full range of choices anytime soon.

When we do have our full crew (although I can't even put Dunn in that mix yet given how difficult this return has been for him), I still think he will be a meaningful member of the rotation.  Of course having Hunter and a range of SG options including Dunn, Bogi, Huerter and Cam will mean fewer minutes than right now but I believe pretty strongly that he'll remain a significant part of the rotation.  There is a reason he averages 22 mpg for his career and it isn't because Bud, Dwayne Casey and Nate have no idea what they are doing.

Based on our discussion in PM, I'm confident that you would say here that Bud, Casey and Nate (along with his other coaches) have all given Snell significant minutes every single season of his career because they have determined he is better than alternatives on the roster.  I think that will remain the case here.  If he was one of the worst players in the league, this would not be a situation where every single coach every single season determines he should be a major part of their rotation.  

On our team, we have had significant injury issues opening up playing time and I expect that will continue.  In an ideal world, I could see Snell getting squeezed largely out of minutes at SG where Bogi is playing like he is now, Huerter is playing like he did earlier in the season (and not like he is playing now) and Cam plays like he did Jan - March of 2020.   I can't see him being squeezed out of minutes at SF.  He will continue to be better than the alternatives behind Hunter at that spot enough to continue to get steady minutes throughout the season.  The only guys who I think would be better than him are guys that Nate would prefer to have in the SG role for their minutes.

But I do think health is going to be a continuing challenge as well and Snell has been a rock there over his career and since his return.  Those injuries will guarantee Snell's role.  JC is out now and even if everyone else on the roster was perfectly healthy then Hunter would be picking up some of the minutes at PF during JC's absence, opening more time for Snell.  If Huerter or Bogi go out, it will mean major minutes continue regardless of the rest of the roster.  

Snell is just a low maintenance, positive impact guy on offense and credible enough on defense that his coaches haven't demoted him out of the rotation regulars.  Ever.  Again the defensive metrics vary from terrible (the drtg that you are solely focused on being the extreme on this end of the spectrum) to mediocre.  All of that data is worth considering (including the terrible drtg) but all of it should be discussed and not just one given the very raw state of publicly available defensive metrics.

The bottomline is that I still think he will be good enough as a net player that he keeps a regular role on the team.  From age 22-29 (ytd), he has played a major role on every team. 

Over the last 4 years, he has been:

2016-17: #2 on the team in total minutes

2017-18: #5 on the team in total minutes

2018-19: #6 on the team in total minutes

2019-20:  #3 on the team in total minutes

So the notion that he will be squeezed out of minutes means that this team is dramatically different than those teams in terms of the quality and availability of alternatives and I just don't see us being that much better.

This year he will finish lower than the #3 he did last season given the health issues he had at the beginning of the year.  That said, just eyeballing it he appears to be in that same range if you focus on February and March (when he was closer to full health).  When Hunter and Cam are back (sending healthy thoughts your way, guys), his minutes should drop from 28 mpg or so he has been averaging lately but I still see him as a regular in that second unit.

I'm up for a bet that from April 15 to May 16 that he will be in the top 8 in total minutes over that period as long he doesn't miss more than 3 games during that window.  I would not condition the bet on the health of the rest of the team because we all know there will be injuries over that time and there is no use discussing hypotheticals when we have enough data to show that this team is going to be dealing with guys missing time for the rest of the season.

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Replied briefly there but will be more than happy to discuss it in full here.

Thank you for cutting out the high school bs of “check you PM’s”... seriously what has he done on our PM’s beside chastised    us to agree with his narrative. At least that’s what I got, I don’t need to be reprimanded by you and your passive aggressive ways. It kind of stinks and I’ll leave it at that. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

Thank you for cutting out the high school bs of “check you PM’s”... seriously what has he done on our PM’s beside chastised    us to agree with his narrative. At least that’s what I got, I don’t need to be reprimanded by you and your passive aggressive ways. It kind of stinks and I’ll leave it at that. 

My conversations on PM have been interesting basketball discussions that were not a problem at all.  No one has ever gotten in trouble on the squawk for talking basketball.  Nobody got in trouble for making the case for or against Marvin, for or against LP, for or against the ASG, etc.  The ideas he shared in those PMs were good, thoughtful content that I think should be shared with the board as a whole as that is the entire focus of the Homecourt and this is even a thread that he started.  

sturt is welcome to engage with people via PM but the same rules apply to PMs as apply to open posts.  If a post is going to get you in trouble on the forum, it will get you in trouble in a PM.  Personal shots at other posters are the most frequent source of conflict and action needed on the board and that doesn't matter where it is posted if it is anywhere on the Squawk.  That is why my golden rule is to address the post but not the poster.  So Spud if you think sturt is doing something wrong, let the mods know but otherwise just feel free to disengage from that as we don't all have to buy into the same ideas or narratives. 

Conversely, talking basketball never has and never will get anyone in trouble on this board and we all benefit from the exchange of ideas.  

So my comment wasn't calling anyone (including him) out, and I won't bar anyone from engaging via PM as long as they are treating each other with the common courtesy we expect everywhere on the site.  Just want to talk basketball here.  sturt started a good debate on Snell's future role with the team this season and about his career to date and I'd like to focus my personal discussion on that topic on his thread where everyone can participate.

[Spud2nique]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

My conversations on PM have been interesting basketball discussions that were not a problem at all.  No one has ever gotten in trouble on the squawk for talking basketball.  Nobody got in trouble for making the case for or against Marvin, for or against LP, for or against the ASG, etc.  The ideas he shared in those PMs were good, thoughtful content that I think should be shared with the board as a whole as that is the entire focus of the Homecourt and this is even a thread that he started.  

sturt is welcome to engage with people via PM but the same rules apply to PMs as apply to open posts.  If a post is going to get you in trouble on the forum, it will get you in trouble in a PM.  Personal shots at other posters are the most frequent source of conflict and action needed on the board and that doesn't matter where it is posted if it is anywhere on the Squawk.  That is why my golden rule is to address the post but not the poster.  So Spud if you think sturt is doing something wrong, let the mods know but otherwise just feel free to disengage from that as we don't all have to buy into the same ideas or narratives. 

Conversely, talking basketball never has and never will get anyone in trouble on this board and we all benefit from the exchange of ideas.  

So my comment wasn't calling anyone (including him) out, and I won't bar anyone from engaging via PM as long as they are treating each other with the common courtesy we expect everywhere on the site.  Just want to talk basketball here.  sturt started a good debate on Snell's future role with the team this season and about his career to date and I'd like to focus my personal discussion on that topic on his thread where everyone can participate.

Sounds cool.

[ATLHawks3]

@Peoriabird you owe Bogi an apology man. This guy is good!

[Peoriabird]

Just now, ATLHawks3 said:

@Peoriabird you owe Bogi an apology man. This guy is good!

We will see...Numbers are still Huerter like

[sturt]

Occurred to me today to look at this comparison... a veritable Easter basket of different flavored jelly beans... the good stuff, and those evil licorice flavored things.

 

[macdaddy]

On 4/2/2021 at 10:43 PM, Peoriabird said:

We will see...Numbers are still Huerter like

?  I guess they are 'like' them but better.  

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

?  I guess they are 'like' them but better.  

A little bit better but Bogi is 28 and Huerter is 23.  Heurter's salary is 2.6 mil while Bogi is making 18 mil per season.  They should be a lot better but they aren't

[Atlantaholic]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

A little bit better but Bogi is 28 and Huerter is 23.  Heurter's salary is 2.6 mil while Bogi is making 18 mil per season.  They should be a lot better but they aren't

One is on his second contract, the other on his rookie contract. You can compare every player on a rookie contract to any vet and point at a huge gap, it doesn't say anything. If Heurt had been a free agent last offseason it's a safe bet he would have gotten something in the 11-15 range. 

[Peoriabird]

5 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

One is on his second contract, the other on his rookie contract. You can compare every player on a rookie contract to any vet and point at a huge gap, it doesn't say anything. If Heurt had been a free agent last offseason it's a safe bet he would have gotten something in the 11-15 range. 

My only point is that they might be the same player.  Sure Bogi has helped out during all of these injuries no doubt. Especially on the road trip but long term his contract might be a problem.  If the team was fully healthy, I can't imagine him getting more than 18 minutes per game unless the coach want to completely shut down players like Huerter and Reddish which I don't recommend.

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

My only point is that they might be the same player.  Sure Bogi has helped out during all of these injuries no doubt. Especially on the road trip but long term his contract might be a problem.  If the team was fully healthy, I can't imagine him getting more than 18 minutes per game unless the coach want to completely shut down players like Huerter and Reddish which I don't recommend.

That's crazy Bogi has averaged 18-4.5-4.5 per 36 min his last 14 games (21-5-6 in April), on close to 50% shooting, that's better numbers than Huerter has ever put up at any 14 game stretch in his career. He's also a much better defensive player than Huerter despite the terrible and-1s he has given up. If we were fully healthy it's a safe bet Bogi continues to start and get bulk minutes while Nate plays hot hand and matchups with Cam and Huerter off the bench. The lineup of Trae, Bogi, Hunter, Collins and Cap could argueably be the most complete 5-man lineup in the entire league. There is zero chance Cam or Huerter would start over Bogi atm, zero. 

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

That's crazy Bogi has averaged 18-4.5-4.5 per 36 min his last 14 games (21-5-6 in April), on close to 50% shooting, that's better numbers than Huerter has ever put up at any 14 game stretch in his career. He's also a much better defensive player than Huerter despite the terrible and-1s he has given up. If we were fully healthy it's a safe bet Bogi continues to start and get bulk minutes while Nate plays hot hand and matchups with Cam and Huerter off the bench. The lineup of Trae, Bogi, Hunter, Collins and Cap could argueably be the most complete 5-man lineup in the entire league. There is zero chance Cam or Huerter would start over Bogi atm, zero. 

Bogi is still a streaky shooter and that has played out throughout his career.  Sure he has had a good stretch but so has many of the Hawks.  Cam is a better defender and is probably more valuable to the team once he gets coached up by Nate.  Everybody was ready to leave Okongwu for dead until Nate coached the guy up.  I would rather see a CAM-Hunter wing combo

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Bogi is still a streaky shooter and that has played out throughout his career.  Sure he has had a good stretch but so has many of the Hawks.  Cam is a better defender and is probably more valuable to the team once he get coached up by Nate.  Everybody was ready to leave Okongwu for dead until Nate coached the guy up.  I would rather see a CAM-Hunter wing combo

He is streaky, but Heurter is even more streaky, and his cold streaks are way worse than Bogi's cold streaks. Bogi may be in a hot streak right now but the fact is he has scored over 20 points in 5 out of his last 10 games VS. Huerter who has scored 20 or more points in 5 out of his last 50.