John is not stepping up like a max player should

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

Correct.  It is a huge no-brainer.  

I'm not certain about that.  The market didn't dictate max contracts for Sabonis, Julius Randle, Myles Turner, and Clint Capela. 

Conversely, it did drive max contracts for Pascal Siakam, Brandon Ingram and Tobias Harris.

Seems to be in a bit of a gray area to me.  I think it is going to be interesting with JC.  My personal view is we have to keep him regardless of what other teams offer.  (I would not consider a 5 year max.)

A lot of it is timing and circumstance - how many teams with capspace and who has a need at a specific position, how many other FAs etc. first or second contract, team standing (playoffs or lottery).

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

A lot of it is timing and circumstance - how many teams with capspace and who has a need at a specific position, how many other FAs etc. first or second contract, team standing (playoffs or lottery).

With his raw counting numbers down materially this year at 17.8 ppg and 7.5 rpg it is going to be very interesting.  I can see it going either way. (Blocks and steals are also down.  All of these are down on both a per minute and per game basis.)  His improved defense is the main salary lifting development for his own game.  The weak talent available on the market should also work in his favor with his restricted status working against him.

[bleachkit]

20 minutes ago, AHF said:

Correct.  It is a huge no-brainer.  

I'm not certain about that.  The market didn't dictate max contracts for Sabonis, Julius Randle, Myles Turner, and Clint Capela. 

Conversely, it did drive max contracts for Pascal Siakam, Brandon Ingram and Tobias Harris.

Seems to be in a bit of a gray area to me.  I think it is going to be interesting with JC.  My personal view is we have to keep him regardless of what other teams offer.  (I would not consider a 5 year max.)

The is quandary NBA teams face with secondary or borderline stars. Do you over pay or let them walk? Usually teams decide to overpay. 

[AHF]

Just now, bleachkit said:

The is quandary NBA teams face with secondary or borderline stars. Do you over pay or let them walk? Usually teams decide to overpay. 

That is the right mover for us, imo.  I haven't always felt that way like with THJr or Bazemore.

[bleachkit]

Just now, AHF said:

That is the right mover for us, imo.  I haven't always felt that way like with THJr or Bazemore.

THJR was mostly about timing for us, he's been productive and worth his contract. Bazemore was an obvious overpay. Considering JC's youth and athleticism, I think he's a safe bet to continue his current level of production. He's not perfect, he does have off nights. But he can have monster games where he gives 30 and 10. Not easy to replace that. It's hard to get team friendly deals on good young players, that's just how it goes.

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

THJR was mostly about timing for us, he's been productive and worth his contract. Bazemore was an obvious overpay. Considering JC's youth and athleticism, I think he's a safe bet to continue his current level of production. He's not perfect, he does have off nights. But he can have monster games where he gives 30 and 10. Not easy to replace that. It's hard to get team friendly deals on good young players, that's just how it goes.

Agree on this other than THJr.  This is his best season and he is 9th on Dallas in WS/48 for 19M.  His first two seasons in NY shooting 31.7% from 3 or 38.8% FG% were even more clearly not worth it.  Maybe just agree to disagree with him.  In my view, it was right to let him go regardless of timing because he just isn't a move the needle guy over the course of the season despite the $18-19M price tag the last couple years.  Decent volume scoring with nothing else.  Eh.

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Agree on this other than THJr.  This is his best season and he is 9th on Dallas in WS/48 for 19M.  His first two seasons in NY shooting 31.7% from 3 or 38.8% FG% were even more clearly not worth it.  Maybe just agree to disagree with him.  In my view, it was right to let him go regardless of timing because he just isn't a move the needle guy over the course of the season despite the $18-19M price tag the last couple years.  Decent volume scoring with nothing else.  Eh.

Yes you're right. He's been solid in Dallas, but in NY he was struggling, which is why they traded him. 

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Yes you're right. He's been solid in Dallas, but in NY he was struggling, which is why they traded him. 

Even in Dallas I don't really see him living up to the contract.  Year 1 with them he shot 32% from deep.  That improved dramatically the next two seasons but he still wasn't great.  Year 2 he was 11th in PER and 12th in WS/48 but #2 in salary.  This year (year 3) he is 6th in PER and 9th in WS/48 and #2 in salary again (50% more than the #3 guy).

Jalen Brunson's metrics are much better despite costing 1/12th of the price.

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Even in Dallas I don't really see him living up to the contract.  Year 1 with them he shot 32% from deep.  That improved dramatically the next two seasons but he still wasn't great.  Year 2 he was 11th in PER and 12th in WS/48 but #2 in salary.  This year (year 3) he is 6th in PER and 9th in WS/48 and #2 in salary again (50% more than the #3 guy).

He's probably get paid again too, teams covet shooting. But the salary thing is skewed because their best player is on a rookie deal. Also, PER tends to favor bigs. I honestly don't know how WS is determined. 

[MarylandHawk]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

Correct.  It is a huge no-brainer.  

I'm not certain about that.  The market didn't dictate max contracts for Sabonis, Julius Randle, Myles Turner, and Clint Capela. 

Conversely, it did drive max contracts for Pascal Siakam, Brandon Ingram and Tobias Harris.

Seems to be in a bit of a gray area to me.  I think it is going to be interesting with JC.  My personal view is we have to keep him regardless of what other teams offer.  (I would not consider a 5 year max.)

Agree hut the big difference this year is that there are no other bigs on the market this year that would take top dollar. John will be the best free agent on the market. 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

Quote

It had to be John Collins. It wouldn’t have been as fitting if it was anyone else on the roster. This new era of the Hawks all started with him when the team decided it was going to build through the draft.

After a first-round exit in the 2016-2017 playoffs, the Hawks turned in Collins’ name with the 19th overall draft pick. He was an athletic big man out of Wake Forest who was raw, who was a tweener four-five on the basketball court and who certainly wouldn’t have been in a position to make the shot he hit with 24 seconds remaining in Wednesday night’s playoff-clinching win over the Wizards.

He attempted one 3 in college. It was a heave. He didn’t shoot any 3s in high school. Being on a rebuilding team where the wins came second to development allowed Collins to find his shooting touch. He attempted 47 in his rookie season; he’s attempted over 200 in Year 4 and is shooting 39 percent after shooting over 40 percent last season.

The Hawks won 24 games in his rookie season, then 29, then 20. By now, Collins said he would have already had his summer vacation plans locked in and where he was going to train in the offseason.

Not this year.

The longest-tenured Hawk hadn’t attempted a more meaningful shot in his career until that moment.

“I saw Trae driving in and I knew he was going to pass it to me,” Collins said. “I stood on that angle of the court where I just hit a 3 a couple of possessions earlier. I was so locked in. I couldn’t hear anything. I just remember me releasing the ball thinking, ‘please go in,’ and it went in. I couldn’t even process anything. I was just so locked in on that moment that I wanted to make the shot and I did.”

 

[JayBirdHawk]