The Truth about Lloyd Pierce (Insider Thread)

[marco102]

5 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Lemme try that.  There were some intense discussions before that draft about who to go after.  4 players were hotly debated on this board with several ring leaders.

NBASupes (Bagley)

Me and a few others (Young)

AHF and posse (Luka)

KB21 (Jaren Jackson).

 

there were 2 arguments presented on the Luka/Trae comparison that stuck out.

Me - Luka is a Euro and will get beaten up in the NBA. 

Others - Trae's too small and his game won't translate to the physical game of the NBA.

 

AHF and I were in direct opposition but much politer to each other than Supes/KB21.  At the same time, there were fierce debates about spending our money to rebuild, not tank (something we eventually did by the way). One of the arguments I made was about the value of trading down for more assets. The Dallas pick wasn't thought to be a lottery pick the next year and didn't come with enough protection. That pick led to Cam. There was also disagreement about what role Luka would play in the modern NBA. We were ready to move on from Dennis Schröder who angered teammates, local law enforcement and was only popular with a select few. We needed a point guard to pair with Collins and of the 2, the consensus was Trae was better suited to be a point guard and lock up that position. That we ended up with Cam Reddish out of it is an unforeseen bonus.

 

I still have doubts about Luka. He has a lot of miles on that body and can be lazy in the offseason (came into camp 10lbs overweight). Time will tell who made the right move, I'm just glad we didn't take Bagley or Jackson. Both are good players but neither of them is Trae Young.

I've seen enough of Luka to have no doubts.  The kid is the real deal.  You may be right about his work ethic though, but you can't be as good as he is without some work.  

I was Luka supporter numero uno during that draft and wanted nothing to do with Trae Young.  I do remember you talking about his passing and vision and after researching him a little more I saw what you meant.  I'm glad he's here now and wouldn't trade him for Luka.

[thecampster]

Just now, marco102 said:

I've seen enough of Luka to have no doubts.  The kid is the real deal.  You may be right about his work ethic though, but you can't be as good as he is without some work.  

I was Luka supporter numero uno during that draft and wanted nothing to do with Trae Young.  I do remember you talking about his passing and vision and after researching him a little more I saw what you meant.  I'm glad he's here now and wouldn't trade him for Luka.

Yah its not a "knock" thing either. That draft was so top heavy, you weren't going to make a bad choice. Jackson is good, very good. Bagley is good and still learning. Luka is pretty damn impressive. But for a team, for winning, I liked what Trae had. It always works no matter how old the player. Using screens, eyes up, knowing where everyone is. It always works. At the end of the last NY game, Trae walked up every time looking intensely at what NY was doing defensively. There was only 3 minutes to go, we had the game won but Trae was still making sure every possession counted. That's infectious. When you PG cares, everyone cares. When your star cares, everyone cares. When your PG is your star, it matters even more.

[NBASupes]

29 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Lemme try that.  There were some intense discussions before that draft about who to go after.  4 players were hotly debated on this board with several ring leaders.

NBASupes (Bagley)

Me and a few others (Young)

AHF and posse (Luka)

KB21 (Jaren Jackson).

 

there were 2 arguments presented on the Luka/Trae comparison that stuck out.

Me - Luka is a Euro and will get beaten up in the NBA. 

Others - Trae's too small and his game won't translate to the physical game of the NBA.

 

AHF and I were in direct opposition but much politer to each other than Supes/KB21.  At the same time, there were fierce debates about spending our money to rebuild, not tank (something we eventually did by the way). One of the arguments I made was about the value of trading down for more assets. The Dallas pick wasn't thought to be a lottery pick the next year and didn't come with enough protection. That pick led to Cam. There was also disagreement about what role Luka would play in the modern NBA. We were ready to move on from Dennis Schröder who angered teammates, local law enforcement and was only popular with a select few. We needed a point guard to pair with Collins and of the 2, the consensus was Trae was better suited to be a point guard and lock up that position. That we ended up with Cam Reddish out of it is an unforeseen bonus.

 

I still have doubts about Luka. He has a lot of miles on that body and can be lazy in the offseason (came into camp 10lbs overweight). Time will tell who made the right move, I'm just glad we didn't take Bagley or Jackson. Both are good players but neither of them is Trae Young.

Spot on. I will say, once Bagley was gone and once it became clear Luka would be around at 3, both @KB21 and I agreed. Our guy was Luka. The pick should be Luka but I was fine with Trae. I also remember @Spud2nique was all in on Trae as well. 

 

KB didn't believe Luka would be available at 3. I didn't believe it either honestly. He was the best player in the draft. 20-5-5 out the box. Lol, the Kings would have had Bogi, Buddy, and Luka. Lol!

Bagley still has my highest draft grade since AD. 

Edited June 4, 2021 by NBASupes

[JeffS17]

9 hours ago, NBASupes said:

This is a thread about LP and his time in Atlanta and what was good and bad and the real truth. 

He's gifted.
Tremendous eye for talent
Work ethic
He understands the modern game exceptionally well
He knows what works and how it should be implemented.
Player development
Coaches planning prep

LP did a lot of good things that we still use to this day. The problem was his communication with players, using them to perform at their best and not to fit his system and most importantly, his gameday coaching was ass. He needed a lot more coaching development even though his talent level is tremendous.

Let's get real with LP

1. Why did LP get the job? He killed interviews, he fit what Atlanta wanted in a rebuilding coach and he wanted to implement a modern style to the game. 

2. Who that we signed or drafted that LP was critical for? Everyone we signed or traded for that impacted winning, LP signed off on. LP didn't sign off on guys like Parsons and Turner but those guys were from Travis long term vision. Draft wise, while Kevin was liked by LP, he was Travis's guy. The scouts loved Omari and Travis did too. LP didn't care for him as much. Trae would likely not be in Atlanta if it wasn't for LP. Tony liked Luka and even the hometown kid Sexton more, scouts liked JJJ, Travis and Peterson leaned JJJ but loved Trae as well. LP worked out JJJ, liked him but he fell in love with Trae. The org did as well. While TS will say that they was going to take Luka at 3, I never believed it. They knew Dallas and Memphis wanted him and used him as bait.

LP was critical for Hunter. Travis wanted Culver but LP worked out both and promised Hunter. LP didn't like Clarke who TS loved as did I. LP and TS loved Reddish but LP wanted both Reddish and Hunter while TS wanted to see him he could get Barrett who he liked more than either player. Our scouts also was in love with Hunter. LP felt he could develop into K. Leonard. Both felt Reddish had PG potential but LP felt Cam was ready to play right now, TS wasn't so sure nor were the scouts. Bruno was loved by all of them. Okongwu was more of TS call but LP liked his long term potential. Both wanted Haliburton the most. Hali turned down the Hawks and wanted to go elsewhere. 

3. The good? His rookie HC year was a massive hit. His creativity was the star of the league. A lot of teams were stealing his plays. He got a team that many felt was awful to overachieve and he coached well. This got him invited to the USA coaching staff where he was the star performer. This is where the coaching fraternity seen him as the future and the it guy. Everyone fell in love with him. His work ethic and knowledge was 2nd to none. He was honest and his player reports was a hype of legends. Coach K sung his praises as did Pop and Boehiem. He bexame that guy 

4. The bad? He was honest and he was a big part of the reason Trae was cut for Derrick White, not Pop. Trae actually played well at that camp. LP had extremely high expectations for Young. He didn't feel like Trae was playing winning Basketball and until he did, he was a hard ass on him. When he spoke to other coaches about Trae, almost everyone would agree, including our guys. I mean everyone. LP wasn't seen as a liar but he didn't go to bat for his guys. 

5. Trae wasn't one of the 40+ players invited to USA camp in 2020, why? LP told them he doesn't deserve it. Still hasn't changed his style of Basketball. This is a fact that LP did this. LP also told Trae I was told and it was the beginning of the end. Trae didn't mind the tough love but when LP did this, Trae felt LP crossed the line. 

6. Trae didn't make the ASG in Atlanta because LP told coaches not to. This is not true. LP didn't tell coaches not to vote for Trae but LP told the coaches about how Trae is like and they kinda was not impressed with him even if the stats were good. The narrative was there and it wasn't going nowhere. 

7. Collins hated LP. This is NOT true. Collins liked LP and wasn't super happy when he was fired. He just didn't like LP not listening to him when he said he could be a post up player and he didn't like LP unwillingness to listen to the players but he was the #2 option. He also didn't like that LP said, we don't run plays for JC. He felt that was disrespectful to the work he puts in. I would say JC was not the reason he got fired. JC role actually has gotten smaller since Nate took over. 

8. Reddish. While LP loved the idea of Reddish, he didn't really like him as a player. He didn't like the fact that Cam has all of the talent in the world and he was playing soft. He didn't like the fact that Cam's confidence would come and go. He didn't like that Cam wasn't a natural fit as a spot up guy which LP wanted Cam to develop into. He did love his defense and felt it was critical considering how Trae is. LP was hardest on Trae, Cam, and Hunter. While Cam had an amazing offseason in terms of production and earning his peers respect at runs he didn't come back overly better at anything while Hunter improved on everything LP asked him to improve on. Like Trae, Cam was targeted a lot by LP as he went to bat for them and wanted to see growth from them. A big part of the reason he was fired was due to Cam but Trae was probably the biggest. 3rd was the record and Atlanta had to make a change or Tony was going to do it himself. Within the org, many still Cam has the potential to be a superstar but they want to see him make a true commitment into improvement and not earning respect from peers because the NBA is a lot different than runs and you have to fit rules in the NBA. Defense is not enough for a player in 2021. 

9. Trae. While Trae is the biggest reason why LP is gone. When I say the league felt he was the reason and questioned him, including ALL of our guys, even Nate. This really hurt Trae's name and stock within the league. Everyone felt LP was spot on for Trae, even Nate and our coaches did. Truth is, LP system while modern didn't work for Trae. He can't play in a really fast pace. He plays too reckless and LP system was like Houston. He wanted his wings to be DPS but they had to stand in the corner and be reactors. Bogi struggled mightly at it. Cam sucked at it. Kevin was inconsistent at it like he is with everything. Nate changed the pace and ran actions for Bogi and what do you know. The Hawks are good. Honestly, Nate almost rurned down this job and he thought LP was doing an excellent job and he suffered due to injuries and a failure to finish games. Nate massively improved the squad but he's still running the LP system, but with Nate's style.

10. Did others hate LP? No. From what I was told, he was liked but Bogi wasn't a fan of his role with LP. LP used him to play like a PG. Nate just using him to his strength. Kevin loved LP. Hunter really loved LP. Clint really loved him too. It really was Trae and Cam which make sense, he went the hardest at those two the most, especially Cam. 

11.He wasn't' without flaws. His system did not fit his personnel so instead of listening to the players. He wanted them to fit his vision for them. This limited Trae, Cam, Bogi, and Gallo. Just by running actions and getting the ball to Bogi in quality position, he massively improved. Gallo massively improved. Cam had his best game v. Boston with Nate. This is what ended LP in my book. 

12. LP will have an uphill batter to get another job so soon. LP is extremely popular, even he game and money. He still beloved by the coaches so he will get a chance sooner than later. 

Interesting stuff, not sure what to make of it other than Nate is just a better fit for what we need.  If it's true that LP was undermining Trae for spots on national camps and stuff, that's a red flag.  Tough love doesn't work on everyone but even when it DOES work, it has to be tough love to the individual, and going to bat for them otherwise.  I really don't blame Trae for taking that personally if it's true that happened.

I can only really relate to the corporate world that I work in, but in my experience, nothing works better and more universally than being positive and encouraging while also having high standards and holding people accountable.  It's a healthier work environment to create a positive atmosphere that allows people to fail, get better, and keep improving without distractions.  Look at the difference between a team like the Warriors, where Steph/Dray are the leaders, where they are encouraging the young guys, helping them, being good role models and setting good examples -- versus any Lebron team where Lebron is constantly showing poor body language, giving up on plays, giving up on his team, pouting, etc.  There's a reason every time a young player gets traded off a Lebron team they suddenly flourish.  Didn't mean to make this about Lebron but hopefully LP learns from this experience and finds success elsewhere. 

It sounds like LP might be better off in an assistant coach role if he cannot handle player-relationship issues.  The HC is the team leader, and leadership / interpersonal skills are much different than Xs and Os, play design, etc.  Not everyone has both.

[bleachkit]

Dallas was going take Bamba if Luka wasn't available. Talk about a reversal of fortune, good lord.

[NBASupes]

Just now, bleachkit said:

Dallas was going take Bamba if Luka wasn't available. Talk about a reversal of fortune, good lord.

Wendell Carter Jr. That's who they were going to take. 

[bleachkit]

Just now, NBASupes said:

Wendell Carter Jr. That's who they were going to take. 

I read it was Bamba, but WCJr isn't much better. A lot of luck involved in these things.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I read it was Bamba, but WCJr isn't much better. A lot of luck involved in these things.

Memphis was going to draft Michael Porter Jr. if JJJ and Luka was off the board. Luka was their top prospect in the draft. They actually called SAC but SAC wanted too much to move down. This was a top heavy draft. Teams did not want to trade a future top pick for anyone outside of Dallas. Most though this was a four player draft and Trae wasn't one of the guys. LMAO! Bamba, Ayton, Bagley, and Luka was universally top guys. Trae was a top guy on some boards, not many. NY, ATL, Orlando, and several others loved Trae. Orlando wanted Trae at 4 but Memphis didn't want to move back from JJJ. Dallas would have picked him if he fell. 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, Jdawgflow said:

This is you talking in circles.  Or at least that is what I am reading.  Luck, skill, better, not better.  
 

I am of the opinion that Nate is a significant upgrade over LP.  Not due to luck but skill as a coach.  Therefore, to me Nate is a much better coach.  LP May be a good coach one day but right now he is not.

One has 15+ years of coaching experience, the other not so much....just like most things in life.  The more you do something, the better you become at it. (that is the hope at least).

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

We saw with TS when he didn't include Bud, he took JC and Dorsey. Dorsey was a massive mistake. They didn't even workout JC, he fell to them and he was the highest value on the board.

I'm  gonna disagree with some of this here:

Quote

The Hawks interviewed him at his Pro Day before Schlenk joined the organization. He said he trusts the Basketball Operations group, including head coach Mike Budenholzer who is no longer the President of Basketball Operations after the organization's restructure. But Schlenk said he was very much involved in the pick.

"It doesn’t do us any good to take a guy he doesn’t like, so he’s got a voice for sure," Schlenk said.

 

It is the first NBA Draft for Schlenk. He was the assistant general manager at the Golden State Warriors prior to joining the Hawks. He said going into the Draft his strategy was to select the best player available regardless of team needs.

 

The Hawks attempted to move up in the Draft to take a player they were targeting, but were unsuccessful, according to Schlenk. They thought about trading back, but when they saw Collins was still available, they threw that idea out the window. Collins' drop to No. 19 overall surprised Schlenk and the Hawks.

 

One of the team's owners, Mitt Shaw who is a former Demon Deacon, told Collins that the Hawks would take him if he was still available.

"He was always hinting and nudging, ‘If you’re around at 19, we’re definitely going to take you.' He came through on his word," Collins said.

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Luck - the things that happen to a person because of chance : the accidental way things happen without being planned. It wasn't planned that this team would become this good because of these changes. 

Nate slowed things down because that's his style even if the system is LP's. He does that everywhere he goes. Look at Portland, Seattle, Indy, and now the Hawks. 

Yes, he did. He got lucky. Even when he takes over for the fired HC, he hasn't really changed their wins that much. When Paul Westphal got fired, they won one more game that season than the previous season. Nate also had a higher win percentage as a HC in Seattle but nothing significant. 

In Portland, he won 6 less games than the previous season. 

In Indy, he won 3 less games than Frank Vogel in the previous season. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/coaches/mcmilna01c.html

Nate is a tremendous gameday coach, hell I would say elite, but overall, he's been a good coach. Nothing special. Not elite. LP has a lot more coaching talent, everyone in the coaching circles knows this as well. Nate simply got lucky.

He was a perfect fit for this squad like Steve Kerr for the Warriors. 

 

In just 3 games that LP was out, Nate was 2-1 against Boston twice when healthy and Denver when healthy. These were tough games and he just fit perfectly. 

Let's talk about what we mean by "luck". 

Coin Flip Luck.  The most simple form of this would be to say that a team has a certain % chance to win games and that this % was roughly the same under both coaches but one got lucky and the other didn't.  The analogy here would be to flipping a coin.  One person might flip a coin 20 times and get heads 13 times while the other flipped the same coin 20 times and got 7 heads.  If heads are wins, you would be looking at a 13-7 record with a 65% win rate and a 7-13 record with a 35% win rate.  Because the odds of "winning" any particular coin flip are the same, the difference in those records are purely a matter of luck.  

I reject the notion that this definition of luck applies here.  The difference in winning % is so great that it is incredibly unlikely to be the result of simple randomness.

Roster Luck.  Another way to look at it would be to say that things outside of the coach's control determined the difference in record.  For example, a team might have made a trade that affected roster strength such as the Lakers acquiring Pau Gasol midseason and a coach who had the stronger roster would be expected to have a better record.  Another angle on this could be health.  When San Antonio started the 1996-97 they expected to be contenders but they lost David Robinson and Sean Elliot (and tanked) such that Brian Hill had a very different roster that year than Pops did the following year.  So attributing the difference between what Hill did with an injured roster to what Pops did the next year with a healthy roster that also included Tim Duncan would be missing a huge part of the picture.

I reject the idea that roster luck applies because I don't see any big changes in roster or healthy under the two coaches.  The roster was almost identical and health issues were prevalant for both coaches.

So what are the drivers and are they something I would call luck?

• Scheme - The slower pace and some other tweaks made a very meaningful difference, imo.  That is a coaching choice and not luck.
• Chemistry - Nate got along better and had the respect of his players more than LP.  I don't view this as luck.  Managing egos is part of the job.  Phil Jackson gets named on the short list of best coaches and this was his primary strength.
• Time - This is something I'd acknowledge as luck.  New players take time to integrate and LP got the short end of the stick in getting the games where the newbies were less adjusted as compared to Nate.  Bogi is the prime example with him having both recovered from injury and had more time with  his teammates to blossom.  But I don't view this as the primary driver here and Bogi is likewise a perfect case.  It is clear that the way Nate utilized Bogi had a huge impact on his and the team's success and I would posit that this made at least as big a difference as Bogi getting adjusted.  (Bogi also was hurt under Nate).

So overall, I have to say it isn't luck and Nate earned the results.

[Jdawgflow]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

Yup.

Good news is the backup center issue should be solved for next year with the extra 5 inches of height and 40 pounds of muscle noticeable from the tv with him in street clothes.  

[thecampster]

45 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Spot on. I will say, once Bagley was gone and once it became clear Luka would be around at 3, both @KB21 and I agreed. Our guy was Luka. The pick should be Luka but I was fine with Trae. I also remember @Spud2nique was all in on Trae as well. 

 

KB didn't believe Luka would be available at 3. I didn't believe it either honestly. He was the best player in the draft. 20-5-5 out the box. Lol, the Kings would have had Bogi, Buddy, and Luka. Lol!

Bagley still has my highest draft grade since AD. 

That was by far the most hotly contested draft I'd ever seen on any message board. Thread went like 250 pages, over 5000 posts.

[NBASupes]

Just now, thecampster said:

That was by far the most hotly contested draft I'd ever seen on any message board. Thread went like 250 pages, over 5000 posts.

Everyone saw stars in that draft unlike last year at #6. It was war. I remember everyone was attacking everyone. There was people who didn't see it with Luka. People who didn't see it with Trae. People who didn't see it with Bagley. People who didn't see it with JJJ. People who didn't see it with Bamba. Ayton was the only one that had a clean name in the top tier grouping but that was probably because he was a lock to go #1. 

[JayBirdHawk]

@NBASupes  since you are spilling stuff, you might as well tell us about the

....that didn't happen. 

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@NBASupes  since you are spilling stuff, you might as well tell us about the

....that didn't happen. 

I can't for now. Maybe this time next year depending how the summer goes. 

[Lurker]

Since I see some 2018 draft talk above, the Kings were definitely the biggest losers of that draft. They could've had two guys who have been stars but instead they picked Marvin Bagley III.

Luka goes #1 in a 2018 redraft but I'm quite happy with Trae. 

[KB21]

If I remember correctly, my top 5 in that draft were Luka Doncic, JJJ, Trae, Ayton, and Mikal Bridges.  I did not like Bagley at all.  I wasn't big on Bamba.  Their flaws were just too much to overcome, IMO.  

[RedDawg#8]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

If I remember correctly, my top 5 in that draft were Luka Doncic, JJJ, Trae, Ayton, and Mikal Bridges.  I did not like Bagley at all.  I wasn't big on Bamba.  Their flaws were just too much to overcome, IMO.  

Oh yeah, Bamba.... some posters were all about that guy and his size.

At least half of this board wanted Bagley but word got out that Sac was taking him. Almost everyone hoped that Luka went before we picked so that we didn't have to make a decision on the guy. Nobody knew he would turn out this good, it was pure hype and speculation back then and Hawks fans knew, we would be damned if we did and damned if we didnt take him, which is why we wanted him off the board to alleviate that pressure. To flip him for Trae and a 1st round pick was always seen as a huge win for us, because we at least knew that we got the guy we wanted, and not the guy we were forced to draft.

[JayBirdHawk]

@NBASupes @thecampster  is Cam still slotted in as a SG?