We've NEVER had a team with an aggregate ceiling this high

[sturt]

Almost hate to bring it up because the topic likely just raises expectations to something just insanely high and unreachable by any practical, sober measure. But it's off-season, so I'll allow myself the luxury.

So, using the tiers that Vecenie (The Athletic) uses in his draft guide...

... among our "young core" (ie, draftees under Schlenk under age 25), I've got these "ceilings" as we sit here in mid-August 2021:

• Trae Young: Superstar upside
• Kevin Huerter: High Leverage Starter, outside chance of All-Star upside
• DeAndre Hunter: High Leverage Starter, plausible All-Star upside
• Cam Reddish: High Leverage Starter, plausible Superstar upside
• John Collins: High Leverage Starter, plausible All-Star upside
• Onyeka Okongwu: Potential Starter, plausible High Leverage Starter
• Travis Mays: 2nd Round Flier, plausible Rotation Player
• Jalen Johnson: Potential Starter, plausible All-Star upside
• Sharife Cooper: Rotation Player, plausible High Leverage Starter

 

The question is, has there EVER BEEN an NBA team with an aggregate ceiling this high?

Probably.

But I'm honestly not sure. Maybe it's homer-ism shielding me, maybe it's just ignorance shielding me... maybe there's been some NBA teams in history that, at some point, every one of the nine most recent draftees still on their roster were not only trending upward, but reasonably could be projected to have such high ceilings.

And of course, they don't give you any trophies simply for "ceilings" and potential.

Once the season starts, it's a near certainty that there will be some regression, and maybe even a lot of regression for some number of these guys.

I remain especially shy to presume too much of our brand new guys because there's no denying you have to see guys play actual NBA caliber competition and over the course of at least a half-season before you can make any well-grounded assessment of what they can truly become.

But sitting here today, I suppose the bottom line conclusion and purpose of this OP is to say there truly has never been a time in all my Hawks fan years to be more bullish on this team's future.... and to the point that I'm truly failing to recall a time when any team's fans had a greater reason to be bullish on their team's future.

I suppose the reaction of some would be to say, "But there have been teams that won a championship, and then added to their roster a superstar asset, setting them up so high on the totem pole as to be unreachable"... eg, Durant going to GSW.

So, yes. I suppose I should qualify it by saying among NBA teams that had not recently won a championship. (Not very many of those occasions to count, though.)

Will it matter? Odds are, it won't. Odds are that between injuries and personality conflicts and coaching mistakes and guys simply failing to develop to their potential... all the negatives that so often intervene for any given team anytime ever... will leave us as a very dissatisfied, disappointed fan base. But it's just worth noting... and worth bookmarking for future reference... a fan base's grandest dreams have rarely if ever been so seemingly rationally within reach.

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Travis Mays: 2nd Round Flier, plausible Rotation Player

....Who? 

[JayBirdHawk]

All I'll say is this.....I don't think the Hawks have ever had this much combined young talent on one team and any point.

It makes me nervous .....Like I can't believe it nervous, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop....I hate the feeling. 

[NBASupes]

This has to be the year we win it all because we are likely to lose Bogi, Wright, and Gallo next year. Maybe even Capela. 

[kg01]

I'll say this.  Practices gonna be

33 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

This has to be the year we win it all because we are likely to lose Bogi, Wright, and Gallo next year. Maybe even Capela. 

[Diesel]

46 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

All I'll say is this.....I don't think the Hawks have ever had this much combined young talent on one team and any point.

It makes me nervous .....Like I can't believe it nervous, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop....I hate the feeling. 

We  have to dispel the myth that Young players don't win. 

[RedDawg#8]

The athletic put out an article series with the top 125 players in the NBA broken down by tiers.

https://theathletic.com/2762817/2021/08/13/nba-player-tiers-lebron-james-kevin-durant-giannis-antetokounmpo-rank-atop-tier-1-as-leagues-very-best/

Here's the link and I will try to post the list for those without a subscription.

But long story short, the Hawks had the most players on the list than any other team with 7 (Trae, Capela, Bogi, Dre, JC, Gallo, Kev in that order)

The majority of the good/playoff teams only have 5. With the notable exception of teams like the Lakers who only had 3 (Lebron, AD, Russ) and Bucks who had 4 (Giannis, Middleton, Jrue, Lopez) but their best players are so high up on the list it carries them. For instance, they have Trae in the 3rd tier with Jrue Holiday, Donovan, Booker, etc... behind Middleton in tier 2 (overrated), and Giannis in tier 1.

Our best player may not be on the same level as Lebron, KD, and Giannis who are defined as the cream of the crop. Or even Curry, Harden, Leonard, Jokic, who round out bottom of tier 1.

But our aggregate talent is very high and very deep. And to think, names like Cam, OO, and Lou could be top 5 players on other teams rosters as well.

Per my count, the teams with the most names were:

Hawks with 7, then Utah and Pheonix with 6 each.

Notice anything with those other 2 teams? They were the top 2 seeds in the West. Consolidation of assets for salary cap purposes may make fiscal sense, but there is a trend forming where aggregate talent acquisition may eventually trump this whole big 3 era as the blueprint to success.

Hawks can lead that new wave. Hopefully maximizing on this window we have with the vets still around

[Gray Mule]

BIG IF:  If this Atlanta team can play decent defense, rebound and hit their free throws, they have an opportunity to go far this season.

Can they get their shots to fall?  Can they remain healthy?  So many serious questions.  Yet, in spite of all this, we really expect the Sky Hawks to be great.  Oh, yeah.  Atlanta too!

[Guest]

I'm sorry, but there are just too many thoughtful, articulate, and optimistic posters on this thread.
 

Someone please return us to our regularly scheduled programming ...

[swanlee]

This is a REALLY talented young team and probably the deepest team in the NBA. We will see if this team can over come the ATL curse of choking at the worst possible time. 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

19 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

But long story short, the Hawks had the most players on the list than any other team with 7 (Trae, Capela, Bogi, Dre, JC, Gallo, Kev in that order)

Surprised we have the most. I've gotten so used to not being in these types of conversations from these 'experts' (though they're often wrong about everything Hawks).

[AUhawksfan]

It is crazy the amount of depth on this team from top to bottom.  I think that was so key to us last year during a shortened injury riddled season for almost every team.

I'm so used to having at least 4-5 scrubs on the team.  Now it's just Solo and at least that dude can play the goofy uncle role with some good tweets for side entertainment.  Everybody is bringing something!

[RedDawg#8]

11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Surprised we have the most. I've gotten so used to not being in these types of conversations from these 'experts' (though they're often wrong about everything Hawks).

Oh trust me, they still shafted us by having Trae in their 3rd tier and under a guy like Kris Middleton, but they really did a good job of showing love to Dre and Kev who most casuals wouldn't be able to speak on at all

[AHF]

42 minutes ago, Diesel said:

We  have to dispel the myth that Young players don't win. 

We already dispelled the myth that this Young player is just a stat guy and doesn't win during the playoffs this year.

[REHawksFan]

7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Surprised we have the most. I've gotten so used to not being in these types of conversations from these 'experts' (though they're often wrong about everything Hawks).

I know we've discussed it already in other threads, but it bares repeating that Venecie seems to underrate Trae heavily. Part his own personal bias, but also partly because he's using, in part, metrics that aggregate 3 years worth of data.  For any Hawks player that played on the team the last 2 years (Trae's rookie and sophomore seasons), they are going to skew HEAVILY downward.  So in this regard, I'd also argue most of the Hawk-drafted players are underrated based on how bad the teams were they played on in their early seasons.  

I think the point here is a good one - that the Hawks likely have more depth than any other team in the NBA.  But I also think the overall ratings likely undersell just how good that talent actually is.    

[RedDawg#8]

Here is the full list. Keep in mind they are ranked only in tiers and sub-tiers, not individually 1 thru 125. Names are alphabetical within each sub tier.

 

2021 NBA Player Tiers: The Top 125

TIER 1A: 1-3

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Durant
LeBron James

TIER 1B: 4-7
James Harden
Kawhi Leonard
Nikola Jokic
Stephen Curry

TIER 2A: 8-10
Anthony Davis
Joel Embiid
Luka Doncic

TIER 2B: 11-14
Damian Lillard
Jimmy Butler
Paul George
Rudy Gobert

TIER 2C: 15-19
Bam Adebayo
Chris Paul
Jayson Tatum
Khris Middleton
Kyrie Irving

TIER 3A: 20-23
Devin Booker
Jrue Holiday 
Trae Young
Zion Williamson

TIER 3B: 24-30
Bradley Beal
Donovan Mitchell
Ja Morant
Jamal Murray
Karl-Anthony Towns
Mike Conley
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

TIER 3C:31-36
Ben Simmons
Draymond Green
Jaylen Brown
Pascal Siakam
Russell Westbrook
Zach LaVine

TIER 4A: 37-56
Brandon Ingram
CJ McCollum
Clint Capela
De'Aaron Fox
DeMar DeRozan
Domantas Sabonis
Fred VanVleet
Gordon Hayward
Jerami Grant
Joe Harris
Joe Ingles
Julius Randle
Kemba Walker
Kyle Lowry
LaMelo Ball
Malcolm Brogdon
Myles Turner
Nikola Vucevic
Robert Covington
Seth Curry

TIER 4B: 57-79
Aaron Gordon
Al Horford
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bojan Bogdanovic
Brook Lopez
Caris LeVert
Christian Wood
Deandre Ayton
De'Andre Hunter
Derrick Rose
Dillon Brooks
Jae Crowder
John Collins
Jonas Valanciunas
Jusuf Nurkic
Klay Thompson
Kristaps Porzingis
Marcus Smart
Michael Porter Jr.
Mikal Bridges
OG Anunoby
Spencer Dinwiddie
Tobias Harris

TIER 5: 80-125
Alex Caruso
Andrew Wiggins
Anthony Edwards
Blake Griffin
Bruce Brown
Buddy Hield
Cameron Payne
Collin Sexton
D'Angelo Russell
Danilo Gallinari
Danny Green
Davis Bertans
Dejounte Murray
Dennis Schröder
Derrick White
Devonte' Graham
Duncan Robinson
Evan Fournier
Gary Trent Jr.
Harrison Barnes
Immanuel Quickley
Ivica Zubac
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jarrett Allen
Jeff Green
Jonathan Isaac
Jordan Clarkson
Kelly Olynyk
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Kevin Huerter
Kyle Anderson
Lonzo Ball
Marcus Morris Sr.
Nerlens Noel
Nicolas Batum
Norman Powell
P.J. Washington
Patrick Beverley
Reggie Jackson
Richaun Holmes
Robert Williams III
Steven Adams
T.J. Warren
Terry Rozier
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Tyrese Haliburton

Edited August 16, 2021 by RedDawg#8

[RedDawg#8]

Here is the snippet about Trae and Jrue specifically, I needed justification on their reasoning, but it sounds like the list maker was a self admitted Trae hater who is both admitting he was wrong about him, as well as acknowledging that he is still holding out from including Trae in the upper echelon of stars for now.

Tier 3A: Players 20-23:

PLAYER	TEAM	TIER	LAST YEAR	BORD$	EPM WINS	RAPM RANK
Devin Booker	PHX	3A	3A	$35.0	6.3	50
Jrue Holiday	MIL	3A	3A	$34.7	9.4	19
Trae Young	ATL	3A	3B	$39.3	9.1	344
Zion Williamson	NOP	3A	3B	$37.5	10.2	77

If you’ll permit me, here’s what I wrote about Jrue Holiday when placing him in Tier 3A a year ago:

For my money, the most underrated player in the NBA. Every time I have done this or a similar exercise over the last few years, Holiday jumps out as a production monster.

After being a simply massive part of the Bucks’ title run in his first season with the franchise as well as being an absolute defensive terror in Team USA’s gold medal performance in the just-completed Olympics, Holiday doesn’t need me to sing his praises as if he is some underappreciated gem. It has become obvious for everyone to see.

Holiday holds a strong claim to being the best defensive guard in the NBA. He was just named to the All-Defensive team for the third time, First Team for the second. For the three seasons for which NBA.com has detailed information on defensive matchups, no player (minimum 5,000 total possessions) has guarded opponents with higher average usage rates. Among players with above-average offensive loads themselves, he is one of only two players who has spent more than a third of his time on “primary” scorers with 25-plus usage rates (Dillon Brooks is the other). He has averaged at least two steals/100 possessions every season of his career.

He’s not merely a defender, ranking 19th in three-year RAPM, including 21st place in offensive RAPM. This past season was the most efficient of his career, setting a career high in true shooting (59.0) alongside a career low in turnover rate — one of his main weaknesses as a player has been looseness with the ball with a career average of 4.1 turnovers/100. Though he is a very good offensive player, some of his limitations on that end are what keep in him Tier 3 instead of in the more exalted, All-NBA range of Tier 2.

He’s a solid but unspectacular shooter, 35.8 percent from 3 for his career. He’s been about average in terms of knocking down uncontested 3s (39.0 percent compared to league average of around 38.5) while slightly below on contested attempts (31.4 percent). He is not quite the off-the-dribble threat as the lead guards higher up the pyramid, and though he is a very good midrange shooter — 42.3 percent on 2-pointers outside of 10 feet — his shot selection can be adventurous at times, which explains why his eFG% has only been above league average twice in his career (including last year of course).

But digging too much into the numbers can obscure his fundamental ability to just make basketball plays. Single-game plus/minus is a treacherous stat to use well, but sometimes it can help paint a picture. In Game 4 of the NBA Finals, Holiday was 4-of-20 from the floor. Yet the Bucks outscored the Suns by eight with him on the floor for just under 44 minutes, a testament to his ability to influence the game. And of course, one of the indelible images of the just-completed Finals was Holiday snatching the ball from Devin Booker’s hands before lobbing to Antetokounmpo for a dunk on what was the key play in Game 5 and perhaps the entire series.

• My skepticism of Trae Young has been well-established. However, at this point, it’s probably best to cut my losses, take the L and anoint him as the kind of archvillain (for fans of 29 franchises) the NBA genuinely needs.

Whether it was Nate McMillan’s coaching, the natural maturation and jelling of the Hawks’ roster, a reaction to being left out of the 2021 All-Star roster galvanizing him or most likely a combination of all three, Young started to rein in some of the excesses in his game that gave pause as to his overall effectiveness. They haven’t completely vanished, but the early-clock, zero-pass, 30-foot pull-ups have decreased in frequency.

While he still has a tendency to deactivate when off the ball, Young did show some willingness to use screens during the postseason. And speaking of the postseason, by far the biggest question prior to last season was whether his slight frame and, shall we say, foul-provocative game could stand up to the physical and competitive rigors of the playoffs. After Young led the Hawks to a blistering of the Knicks and a somewhat stunning upset of the Sixers, it’s safe to say those questions have been answered.

Whether Young can ascend into Tier 2 will depend on a number of smaller improvements. Can he continue to refine his shot selection? Will he find ways to be slightly less of a defensive liability than his 755th place ranking (of 755!) in three-year dRAPM suggests he has been? Can he become a more effective player off the ball to allow the talents around him, such as Kevin Huerter and John Collins, to shine a little more? Having learned my lesson, I’m no longer betting against him being able to do so.

[sturt]

Just to draw the distinction... the OP mainly is forward looking and at ceilings, not so much looking at current status... and specific to just our young core, not players who are likely at or past their ceilings--and concurrently, reasonably less likely to be on the roster in a year or two or three.

Agree with the assessment above that we truly have a critical opportunity this season, and it gets a little more challenging each season thereafter. But to the degree that more of these guys fulfill very much of their ceiling, that can serve to mitigate that. Know we're all anxious to see that happen.

[thecampster]

3 hours ago, sturt said:

Almost hate to bring it up because the topic likely just raises expectations to something just insanely high and unreachable by any practical, sober measure. But it's off-season, so I'll allow myself the luxury.

So, using the tiers that Vecenie (The Athletic) uses in his draft guide...

... among our "young core" (ie, draftees under Schlenk under age 25), I've got these "ceilings" as we sit here in mid-August 2021:

• Trae Young: Superstar upside
• Kevin Huerter: High Leverage Starter, outside chance of All-Star upside
• DeAndre Hunter: High Leverage Starter, plausible All-Star upside
• Cam Reddish: High Leverage Starter, plausible Superstar upside
• John Collins: High Leverage Starter, plausible All-Star upside
• Onyeka Okongwu: Potential Starter, plausible High Leverage Starter
• Travis Mays: 2nd Round Flier, plausible Rotation Player
• Jalen Johnson: Potential Starter, plausible All-Star upside
• Sharife Cooper: Rotation Player, plausible High Leverage Starter

 

The question is, has there EVER BEEN an NBA team with an aggregate ceiling this high?

Probably.

But I'm honestly not sure. Maybe it's homer-ism shielding me, maybe it's just ignorance shielding me... maybe there's been some NBA teams in history that, at some point, every one of the nine most recent draftees still on their roster were not only trending upward, but reasonably could be projected to have such high ceilings.

And of course, they don't give you any trophies simply for "ceilings" and potential.

Once the season starts, it's a near certainty that there will be some regression, and maybe even a lot of regression for some number of these guys.

I remain especially shy to presume too much of our brand new guys because there's no denying you have to see guys play actual NBA caliber competition and over the course of at least a half-season before you can make any well-grounded assessment of what they can truly become.

But sitting here today, I suppose the bottom line conclusion and purpose of this OP is to say there truly has never been a time in all my Hawks fan years to be more bullish on this team's future.... and to the point that I'm truly failing to recall a time when any team's fans had a greater reason to be bullish on their team's future.

I suppose the reaction of some would be to say, "But there have been teams that won a championship, and then added to their roster a superstar asset, setting them up so high on the totem pole as to be unreachable"... eg, Durant going to GSW.

So, yes. I suppose I should qualify it by saying among NBA teams that had not recently won a championship. (Not very many of those occasions to count, though.)

Will it matter? Odds are, it won't. Odds are that between injuries and personality conflicts and coaching mistakes and guys simply failing to develop to their potential... all the negatives that so often intervene for any given team anytime ever... will leave us as a very dissatisfied, disappointed fan base. But it's just worth noting... and worth bookmarking for future reference... a fan base's grandest dreams have rarely if ever been so seemingly rationally within reach.

 

 

Interesting you left Clint off the list.

[RedDawg#8]

6 minutes ago, sturt said:

Just to draw the distinction... the OP mainly is forward looking and at ceilings, not so much looking at current status... and specific to just our young core, not players who are likely at or past their ceilings--and concurrently, reasonably less likely to be on the roster in a year or two or three.

Agree with the assessment above that we truly have a critical opportunity this season, and it gets a little more challenging each season thereafter. But to the degree that more of these guys fulfill very much of their ceiling, that can serve to mitigate that. Know we're all anxious to see that happen.

Yep, I totally deviated from the OP. My bad everyone, this reminder was for me lol