Premium Member Popular Post sturt Posted August 16, 2021 Premium Member Popular Post Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 Almost hate to bring it up because the topic likely just raises expectations to something just insanely high and unreachable by any practical, sober measure. But it's off-season, so I'll allow myself the luxury. So, using the tiers that Vecenie (The Athletic) uses in his draft guide... ... among our "young core" (ie, draftees under Schlenk under age 25), I've got these "ceilings" as we sit here in mid-August 2021: Trae Young: Superstar upside Kevin Huerter: High Leverage Starter, outside chance of All-Star upside DeAndre Hunter: High Leverage Starter, plausible All-Star upside Cam Reddish: High Leverage Starter, plausible Superstar upside John Collins: High Leverage Starter, plausible All-Star upside Onyeka Okongwu: Potential Starter, plausible High Leverage Starter Travis Mays: 2nd Round Flier, plausible Rotation Player Jalen Johnson: Potential Starter, plausible All-Star upside Sharife Cooper: Rotation Player, plausible High Leverage Starter The question is, has there EVER BEEN an NBA team with an aggregate ceiling this high? Probably. But I'm honestly not sure. Maybe it's homer-ism shielding me, maybe it's just ignorance shielding me... maybe there's been some NBA teams in history that, at some point, every one of the nine most recent draftees still on their roster were not only trending upward, but reasonably could be projected to have such high ceilings. And of course, they don't give you any trophies simply for "ceilings" and potential. Once the season starts, it's a near certainty that there will be some regression, and maybe even a lot of regression for some number of these guys. I remain especially shy to presume too much of our brand new guys because there's no denying you have to see guys play actual NBA caliber competition and over the course of at least a half-season before you can make any well-grounded assessment of what they can truly become. But sitting here today, I suppose the bottom line conclusion and purpose of this OP is to say there truly has never been a time in all my Hawks fan years to be more bullish on this team's future.... and to the point that I'm truly failing to recall a time when any team's fans had a greater reason to be bullish on their team's future. I suppose the reaction of some would be to say, "But there have been teams that won a championship, and then added to their roster a superstar asset, setting them up so high on the totem pole as to be unreachable"... eg, Durant going to GSW. So, yes. I suppose I should qualify it by saying among NBA teams that had not recently won a championship. (Not very many of those occasions to count, though.) Will it matter? Odds are, it won't. Odds are that between injuries and personality conflicts and coaching mistakes and guys simply failing to develop to their potential... all the negatives that so often intervene for any given team anytime ever... will leave us as a very dissatisfied, disappointed fan base. But it's just worth noting... and worth bookmarking for future reference... a fan base's grandest dreams have rarely if ever been so seemingly rationally within reach. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member JayBirdHawk Posted August 16, 2021 Premium Member Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, sturt said: Travis Mays: 2nd Round Flier, plausible Rotation Player ....Who? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member Popular Post JayBirdHawk Posted August 16, 2021 Premium Member Popular Post Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 All I'll say is this.....I don't think the Hawks have ever had this much combined young talent on one team and any point. It makes me nervous .....Like I can't believe it nervous, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop....I hate the feeling. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBASupes Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 This has to be the year we win it all because we are likely to lose Bogi, Wright, and Gallo next year. Maybe even Capela. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post kg01 Posted August 16, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 I'll say this. Practices gonna be 33 minutes ago, NBASupes said: This has to be the year we win it all because we are likely to lose Bogi, Wright, and Gallo next year. Maybe even Capela. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member Popular Post Diesel Posted August 16, 2021 Premium Member Popular Post Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 46 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said: All I'll say is this.....I don't think the Hawks have ever had this much combined young talent on one team and any point. It makes me nervous .....Like I can't believe it nervous, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop....I hate the feeling. We have to dispel the myth that Young players don't win. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RedDawg#8 Posted August 16, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 The athletic put out an article series with the top 125 players in the NBA broken down by tiers. https://theathletic.com/2762817/2021/08/13/nba-player-tiers-lebron-james-kevin-durant-giannis-antetokounmpo-rank-atop-tier-1-as-leagues-very-best/ Here's the link and I will try to post the list for those without a subscription. But long story short, the Hawks had the most players on the list than any other team with 7 (Trae, Capela, Bogi, Dre, JC, Gallo, Kev in that order) The majority of the good/playoff teams only have 5. With the notable exception of teams like the Lakers who only had 3 (Lebron, AD, Russ) and Bucks who had 4 (Giannis, Middleton, Jrue, Lopez) but their best players are so high up on the list it carries them. For instance, they have Trae in the 3rd tier with Jrue Holiday, Donovan, Booker, etc... behind Middleton in tier 2 (overrated), and Giannis in tier 1. Our best player may not be on the same level as Lebron, KD, and Giannis who are defined as the cream of the crop. Or even Curry, Harden, Leonard, Jokic, who round out bottom of tier 1. But our aggregate talent is very high and very deep. And to think, names like Cam, OO, and Lou could be top 5 players on other teams rosters as well. Per my count, the teams with the most names were: Hawks with 7, then Utah and Pheonix with 6 each. Notice anything with those other 2 teams? They were the top 2 seeds in the West. Consolidation of assets for salary cap purposes may make fiscal sense, but there is a trend forming where aggregate talent acquisition may eventually trump this whole big 3 era as the blueprint to success. Hawks can lead that new wave. Hopefully maximizing on this window we have with the vets still around 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Mule Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 BIG IF: If this Atlanta team can play decent defense, rebound and hit their free throws, they have an opportunity to go far this season. Can they get their shots to fall? Can they remain healthy? So many serious questions. Yet, in spite of all this, we really expect the Sky Hawks to be great. Oh, yeah. Atlanta too! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 I'm sorry, but there are just too many thoughtful, articulate, and optimistic posters on this thread. Someone please return us to our regularly scheduled programming ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swanlee Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 This is a REALLY talented young team and probably the deepest team in the NBA. We will see if this team can over come the ATL curse of choking at the worst possible time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member JayBirdHawk Posted August 16, 2021 Premium Member Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said: But long story short, the Hawks had the most players on the list than any other team with 7 (Trae, Capela, Bogi, Dre, JC, Gallo, Kev in that order) Surprised we have the most. I've gotten so used to not being in these types of conversations from these 'experts' (though they're often wrong about everything Hawks). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUhawksfan Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 It is crazy the amount of depth on this team from top to bottom. I think that was so key to us last year during a shortened injury riddled season for almost every team. I'm so used to having at least 4-5 scrubs on the team. Now it's just Solo and at least that dude can play the goofy uncle role with some good tweets for side entertainment. Everybody is bringing something! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDawg#8 Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said: Surprised we have the most. I've gotten so used to not being in these types of conversations from these 'experts' (though they're often wrong about everything Hawks). Oh trust me, they still shafted us by having Trae in their 3rd tier and under a guy like Kris Middleton, but they really did a good job of showing love to Dre and Kev who most casuals wouldn't be able to speak on at all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Popular Post AHF Posted August 16, 2021 Moderators Popular Post Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 42 minutes ago, Diesel said: We have to dispel the myth that Young players don't win. We already dispelled the myth that this Young player is just a stat guy and doesn't win during the playoffs this year. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REHawksFan Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said: Surprised we have the most. I've gotten so used to not being in these types of conversations from these 'experts' (though they're often wrong about everything Hawks). I know we've discussed it already in other threads, but it bares repeating that Venecie seems to underrate Trae heavily. Part his own personal bias, but also partly because he's using, in part, metrics that aggregate 3 years worth of data. For any Hawks player that played on the team the last 2 years (Trae's rookie and sophomore seasons), they are going to skew HEAVILY downward. So in this regard, I'd also argue most of the Hawk-drafted players are underrated based on how bad the teams were they played on in their early seasons. I think the point here is a good one - that the Hawks likely have more depth than any other team in the NBA. But I also think the overall ratings likely undersell just how good that talent actually is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDawg#8 Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 (edited) Here is the full list. Keep in mind they are ranked only in tiers and sub-tiers, not individually 1 thru 125. Names are alphabetical within each sub tier. 2021 NBA Player Tiers: The Top 125 TIER 1A: 1-3 Giannis Antetokounmpo Kevin Durant LeBron James TIER 1B: 4-7 James Harden Kawhi Leonard Nikola Jokic Stephen Curry TIER 2A: 8-10 Anthony Davis Joel Embiid Luka Doncic TIER 2B: 11-14 Damian Lillard Jimmy Butler Paul George Rudy Gobert TIER 2C: 15-19 Bam Adebayo Chris Paul Jayson Tatum Khris Middleton Kyrie Irving TIER 3A: 20-23 Devin Booker Jrue Holiday Trae Young Zion Williamson TIER 3B: 24-30 Bradley Beal Donovan Mitchell Ja Morant Jamal Murray Karl-Anthony Towns Mike Conley Shai Gilgeous-Alexander TIER 3C:31-36 Ben Simmons Draymond Green Jaylen Brown Pascal Siakam Russell Westbrook Zach LaVine TIER 4A: 37-56 Brandon Ingram CJ McCollumClint Capela De'Aaron Fox DeMar DeRozan Domantas Sabonis Fred VanVleet Gordon Hayward Jerami Grant Joe Harris Joe Ingles Julius Randle Kemba Walker Kyle Lowry LaMelo Ball Malcolm Brogdon Myles Turner Nikola Vucevic Robert Covington Seth Curry TIER 4B: 57-79 Aaron Gordon Al HorfordBogdan Bogdanovic Bojan Bogdanovic Brook Lopez Caris LeVert Christian Wood Deandre AytonDe'Andre Hunter Derrick Rose Dillon Brooks Jae CrowderJohn Collins Jonas Valanciunas Jusuf Nurkic Klay Thompson Kristaps Porzingis Marcus Smart Michael Porter Jr. Mikal Bridges OG Anunoby Spencer Dinwiddie Tobias Harris TIER 5: 80-125 Alex Caruso Andrew Wiggins Anthony Edwards Blake Griffin Bruce Brown Buddy Hield Cameron Payne Collin Sexton D'Angelo RussellDanilo Gallinari Danny Green Davis Bertans Dejounte Murray Dennis Schröder Derrick White Devonte' Graham Duncan Robinson Evan Fournier Gary Trent Jr. Harrison Barnes Immanuel Quickley Ivica Zubac Jaren Jackson Jr. Jarrett Allen Jeff Green Jonathan Isaac Jordan Clarkson Kelly Olynyk Kentavious Caldwell-PopeKevin Huerter Kyle Anderson Lonzo Ball Marcus Morris Sr. Nerlens Noel Nicolas Batum Norman Powell P.J. Washington Patrick Beverley Reggie Jackson Richaun Holmes Robert Williams III Steven Adams T.J. Warren Terry Rozier Tim Hardaway Jr. Tyrese Haliburton Edited August 16, 2021 by RedDawg#8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDawg#8 Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 Here is the snippet about Trae and Jrue specifically, I needed justification on their reasoning, but it sounds like the list maker was a self admitted Trae hater who is both admitting he was wrong about him, as well as acknowledging that he is still holding out from including Trae in the upper echelon of stars for now. Tier 3A: Players 20-23: PLAYER TEAM TIER LAST YEAR BORD$ EPM WINS RAPM RANK Devin Booker PHX 3A 3A $35.0 6.3 50 Jrue Holiday MIL 3A 3A $34.7 9.4 19 Trae Young ATL 3A 3B $39.3 9.1 344 Zion Williamson NOP 3A 3B $37.5 10.2 77 If you’ll permit me, here’s what I wrote about Jrue Holiday when placing him in Tier 3A a year ago: For my money, the most underrated player in the NBA. Every time I have done this or a similar exercise over the last few years, Holiday jumps out as a production monster. After being a simply massive part of the Bucks’ title run in his first season with the franchise as well as being an absolute defensive terror in Team USA’s gold medal performance in the just-completed Olympics, Holiday doesn’t need me to sing his praises as if he is some underappreciated gem. It has become obvious for everyone to see. Holiday holds a strong claim to being the best defensive guard in the NBA. He was just named to the All-Defensive team for the third time, First Team for the second. For the three seasons for which NBA.com has detailed information on defensive matchups, no player (minimum 5,000 total possessions) has guarded opponents with higher average usage rates. Among players with above-average offensive loads themselves, he is one of only two players who has spent more than a third of his time on “primary” scorers with 25-plus usage rates (Dillon Brooks is the other). He has averaged at least two steals/100 possessions every season of his career. He’s not merely a defender, ranking 19th in three-year RAPM, including 21st place in offensive RAPM. This past season was the most efficient of his career, setting a career high in true shooting (59.0) alongside a career low in turnover rate — one of his main weaknesses as a player has been looseness with the ball with a career average of 4.1 turnovers/100. Though he is a very good offensive player, some of his limitations on that end are what keep in him Tier 3 instead of in the more exalted, All-NBA range of Tier 2. He’s a solid but unspectacular shooter, 35.8 percent from 3 for his career. He’s been about average in terms of knocking down uncontested 3s (39.0 percent compared to league average of around 38.5) while slightly below on contested attempts (31.4 percent). He is not quite the off-the-dribble threat as the lead guards higher up the pyramid, and though he is a very good midrange shooter — 42.3 percent on 2-pointers outside of 10 feet — his shot selection can be adventurous at times, which explains why his eFG% has only been above league average twice in his career (including last year of course). But digging too much into the numbers can obscure his fundamental ability to just make basketball plays. Single-game plus/minus is a treacherous stat to use well, but sometimes it can help paint a picture. In Game 4 of the NBA Finals, Holiday was 4-of-20 from the floor. Yet the Bucks outscored the Suns by eight with him on the floor for just under 44 minutes, a testament to his ability to influence the game. And of course, one of the indelible images of the just-completed Finals was Holiday snatching the ball from Devin Booker’s hands before lobbing to Antetokounmpo for a dunk on what was the key play in Game 5 and perhaps the entire series. • My skepticism of Trae Young has been well-established. However, at this point, it’s probably best to cut my losses, take the L and anoint him as the kind of archvillain (for fans of 29 franchises) the NBA genuinely needs. Whether it was Nate McMillan’s coaching, the natural maturation and jelling of the Hawks’ roster, a reaction to being left out of the 2021 All-Star roster galvanizing him or most likely a combination of all three, Young started to rein in some of the excesses in his game that gave pause as to his overall effectiveness. They haven’t completely vanished, but the early-clock, zero-pass, 30-foot pull-ups have decreased in frequency. While he still has a tendency to deactivate when off the ball, Young did show some willingness to use screens during the postseason. And speaking of the postseason, by far the biggest question prior to last season was whether his slight frame and, shall we say, foul-provocative game could stand up to the physical and competitive rigors of the playoffs. After Young led the Hawks to a blistering of the Knicks and a somewhat stunning upset of the Sixers, it’s safe to say those questions have been answered. Whether Young can ascend into Tier 2 will depend on a number of smaller improvements. Can he continue to refine his shot selection? Will he find ways to be slightly less of a defensive liability than his 755th place ranking (of 755!) in three-year dRAPM suggests he has been? Can he become a more effective player off the ball to allow the talents around him, such as Kevin Huerter and John Collins, to shine a little more? Having learned my lesson, I’m no longer betting against him being able to do so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member sturt Posted August 16, 2021 Author Premium Member Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 Just to draw the distinction... the OP mainly is forward looking and at ceilings, not so much looking at current status... and specific to just our young core, not players who are likely at or past their ceilings--and concurrently, reasonably less likely to be on the roster in a year or two or three. Agree with the assessment above that we truly have a critical opportunity this season, and it gets a little more challenging each season thereafter. But to the degree that more of these guys fulfill very much of their ceiling, that can serve to mitigate that. Know we're all anxious to see that happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecampster Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 hours ago, sturt said: Almost hate to bring it up because the topic likely just raises expectations to something just insanely high and unreachable by any practical, sober measure. But it's off-season, so I'll allow myself the luxury. So, using the tiers that Vecenie (The Athletic) uses in his draft guide... ... among our "young core" (ie, draftees under Schlenk under age 25), I've got these "ceilings" as we sit here in mid-August 2021: Trae Young: Superstar upside Kevin Huerter: High Leverage Starter, outside chance of All-Star upside DeAndre Hunter: High Leverage Starter, plausible All-Star upside Cam Reddish: High Leverage Starter, plausible Superstar upside John Collins: High Leverage Starter, plausible All-Star upside Onyeka Okongwu: Potential Starter, plausible High Leverage Starter Travis Mays: 2nd Round Flier, plausible Rotation Player Jalen Johnson: Potential Starter, plausible All-Star upside Sharife Cooper: Rotation Player, plausible High Leverage Starter The question is, has there EVER BEEN an NBA team with an aggregate ceiling this high? Probably. But I'm honestly not sure. Maybe it's homer-ism shielding me, maybe it's just ignorance shielding me... maybe there's been some NBA teams in history that, at some point, every one of the nine most recent draftees still on their roster were not only trending upward, but reasonably could be projected to have such high ceilings. And of course, they don't give you any trophies simply for "ceilings" and potential. Once the season starts, it's a near certainty that there will be some regression, and maybe even a lot of regression for some number of these guys. I remain especially shy to presume too much of our brand new guys because there's no denying you have to see guys play actual NBA caliber competition and over the course of at least a half-season before you can make any well-grounded assessment of what they can truly become. But sitting here today, I suppose the bottom line conclusion and purpose of this OP is to say there truly has never been a time in all my Hawks fan years to be more bullish on this team's future.... and to the point that I'm truly failing to recall a time when any team's fans had a greater reason to be bullish on their team's future. I suppose the reaction of some would be to say, "But there have been teams that won a championship, and then added to their roster a superstar asset, setting them up so high on the totem pole as to be unreachable"... eg, Durant going to GSW. So, yes. I suppose I should qualify it by saying among NBA teams that had not recently won a championship. (Not very many of those occasions to count, though.) Will it matter? Odds are, it won't. Odds are that between injuries and personality conflicts and coaching mistakes and guys simply failing to develop to their potential... all the negatives that so often intervene for any given team anytime ever... will leave us as a very dissatisfied, disappointed fan base. But it's just worth noting... and worth bookmarking for future reference... a fan base's grandest dreams have rarely if ever been so seemingly rationally within reach. Interesting you left Clint off the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDawg#8 Posted August 16, 2021 Report Share Posted August 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, sturt said: Just to draw the distinction... the OP mainly is forward looking and at ceilings, not so much looking at current status... and specific to just our young core, not players who are likely at or past their ceilings--and concurrently, reasonably less likely to be on the roster in a year or two or three. Agree with the assessment above that we truly have a critical opportunity this season, and it gets a little more challenging each season thereafter. But to the degree that more of these guys fulfill very much of their ceiling, that can serve to mitigate that. Know we're all anxious to see that happen. Yep, I totally deviated from the OP. My bad everyone, this reminder was for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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