We've NEVER had a team with an aggregate ceiling this high

[sillent]

1 hour ago, niremetal said:

These two paragraphs kind of sum up the reasons for my bafflement at this discussion.

When people are talking about the need to keep our "knowns" or our "core," they usually mean young/rising players like Cam, Dre, and maybe Huerter; those are the guys who the argument is we should hold onto, not Bogi, Gallo, or Capela--guys who actually played a much more central role in our second-half turnaround and playoff run than Cam, Dre, and Huerter did. The talk is as though our young guys aside from Trae and JC are proven quantities. They are not.

Dre had a great 17-game run in January before he got hurt. Yeah, that's right--17 games. Approximately one-fifth of one season. Since then, his knee has prevented us from being able to see if that was lightning in a bottle or something he can sustain over an 82-game season, after he actually starts showing up on teams' scouting reports as a guy to watch. Right now, he's the best bet to turn into an All-Star of the 3, but he's not close to a lock for that.

Huerter had a couple big games in the playoffs--most notably by exploiting a mismatch against Seth Curry over and over again in Game 7 against the Sixers. He's turned into a solid on-ball defender (though by no means a great one). He's proven himself a solid rotation player, but I still view late-season-Bogi as his absolute ceiling, and one he is not especially likely to reach given that his 3P% has been worryingly trending downwards since his rookie year.

Cam had a nice little 4-game run during the ECFs and has the highest ceiling of the three, but also the lowest floor because he just hasn't shown even a 10-game stretch of consistently average (much less good) offensive play yet in his career.

And contrary to what the second paragraph above says--TONS of guys peak/permanently plateau before they hit 25 and/or while they are on their rookie scale contracts. Again, just to use examples from my two favorite teams in the last 15 years--Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum, CJ McCollum...hell, you can almost add JJ to that list (I'd say he hit his plateau at age 25). Guys getting hurt or simply being unable/unwilling to raise their game additional levels after they hit 23/24 is not exceptional. If anything, it's the norm. Pick a random NBA draft year and take a look at all the first rounders drafted #4 or lower, and count how many of them peaked by year 4. You'll be surprised.

So it's nuts to me to talk about our young guys (again, aside from Trae/JC) as "knowns" while guys with multiple All-Star appearances are "unknowns."

Like everyone else, I love our young core. A part of me is so excited by our collection of talent that I don't want to see us trade any of it away. But I'm also glad we have a clear-eyed GM in Schlenk who realizes that trading potential stars for proven stars is usually a good strategy, all other things being equal.

The known is that the sum of our parts work well together. 

It's known that we are more injury proof (with our depth) which is part of the "luck" that's needed for an extended run. 

What's known is there are power in numbers.

What's known is young players typically continue to improve until about the age of 26-28.

What's known is we're very good now and have only enhanced that during the offseason. 

What's known is injuries happen. If you put all your eggs in one basket you better hope that basket doesn't drop. 

What's known is a superstar egg usually comes at a high price if they aren't home grown and one injury could derail a whole season.

All I've done was taken all the "known's" into consideration and paired them with possibilities. 

Known or unknown it's random possibilities that come into the equation and the most equipped usually are the most prepared for the unknowns. 

I'm not just reacting from Fandom. 

Last year is the 1st yr I've made such a claim about a dynasty from the knowns I had available. Did I know Lloyd Pierce would flop with us know. I did notice how well his schemes may work with our team and that we had insurance with Nate McMillan.

I take all the knowns into consideration and than I make rational statements. (contrary to popular belief)

How do we know? Simply because we can always refer back to it. 

Getting one player that might push us over the edge. Might be able to build chemistry with the guys remaining. Might stay healthy enough to lead us all the way is a big unknown. 

It sounds good in theory. It looks good on paper but time and time again it's either a hit or a miss.

What I know is that's an unnecessary risk when we already have something that could be very special. To top it off or get back to the unknowns 3 or more very special possibilities is better than one. 

Would you rather have 3 strikes available or one?

I've seen who's at bat and I'm confident they can bring us home. It's cool if you're not and I respect that. Still 9 times out of 10 the logical person is choosing the 3 strikes instead of hoping for a homerun with only one swing.

[RedDawg#8]

2 hours ago, marco102 said:

I'm slightly more patient.  I'd rather see how everyone performs this year before trading away any of the young core. 

The wait and see approach is always safer, but it only allows for value and demand to shrink.

The clearer our picture gets as to who is a keeper and who isn't, the clearer it gets for other teams as well. They will no longer covet the guys that we want to move, and will only want the ones we should probably  keep.

Peak value always includes potential growth. It's what entices the buyer. Sell high

Im happy keeping the group together. Im just a lot less afraid of the risk if we decide to make a move. We are loaded almost to a fault

[sillent]

1 minute ago, RedDawg#8 said:

The wait and see approach is always safer, but it only allows for value and demand to shrink.

The clearer our picture gets as to who is a keeper and who isn't, the clearer it gets for other teams as well. They will no longer covet the guys that we want to move, and will only want the ones we should probably  keep.

Peak value always includes potential growth. It's what entices the buyer. Sell high

Im happy keeping the group together. Im just a lot less afraid of the risk if we decide to make a move. We are loaded almost to a fault

There's been alot of intelligent post and statements. I think your posts says it best what others are truly feeling.

It's understandable to be afraid of the unknown especially because we haven't been in this situation before.

In those cases sometimes you have to ride the belief of others that know a little better. People don't have to take it from me but I will say I'm glad Schlenk is in control.

What he's doing isn't knew to me but it is new to the league. Still I can't say I'm an expert pass a game like 2k no matter how sure I feel until it's all said and done.

Still the most that can be asked is for us all to be patient. If for some reason it all implodes I'm sure there will still be opportunities (as there always is) to make adjustments.

There are more Nathan Knight's (unknown talents) out there then there is roster spots. I'm sure if we have to make moves and can't get our perceived value we will find value elsewhere.

I'm glad you're not treating a fire drill as if there's a real fire because honestly there is nothing wrong with our building.

[sturt]

11 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

They will no longer covet the guys that we want to move, and will only want the ones we should probably  keep.

Peak value always includes potential growth. It's what entices the buyer. Sell high

Speaks from an assumption that we  know who is to be the most valuable a year from now and beyond.

The risk, my friend, goes both ways.

You can deal, say, a Cam Reddish on the premise that we know he's not going to become anyone special and the premise that we're so smart to sell high.

But no. We don't know that, of course. We could be selling high. We also could be selling low.

 

Short of an irrefutable elite player, I have no interest.

[REHawksFan]

9 hours ago, sturt said:

Short of an irrefutable elite player, I have no interest.

I think this statement pretty well sums up the entire discussion.  I think we all would say the same thing.  I'm not willing to let Dre or Cam or any of the other young guys go for anything less than a bona fide superstar, should one come available. 

[kg01]

Which one-a yous called NBARadio this morning?

Guy called up to comment on parity in the league, many teams capable of winning it, blah, blah, blah....

Said, on the Hawks, "I don't think we can win it a-cause we don't have a point guard that plays any defense.  We're playin' 4-on-5 every night..."

Like, really?  You wanna trade Trae for Eric Bledsoe or Pat Beverly, then?

Who's gonna own up to being that caller?

[Spud2nique]

13 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Which one-a yous called NBARadio this morning?

Guy called up to comment on parity in the league, many teams capable of winning it, blah, blah, blah....

Said, on the Hawks, "I don't think we can win it a-cause we don't have a point guard that plays any defense.  We're playin' 4-on-5 every night..."

Like, really?  You wanna trade Trae for Eric Bledsoe or Pat Beverly, then?

Who's gonna own up to being that caller?

It’s 7am here in the west coast when did this happen? That wasn’t a Hawks fan. Some of those caller stink. 
 

Ps Have u ever called kg? I called and got on a few times. I think it was whatever topic they were discussing lol. I called in when it was Cam and somebody, wasn’t Antonio though that day.

 

I may call stay tuned I’ll shout you guys out as the Hawks fam.

[AHF]

16 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Which one-a yous called NBARadio this morning?

Guy called up to comment on parity in the league, many teams capable of winning it, blah, blah, blah....

Said, on the Hawks, "I don't think we can win it a-cause we don't have a point guard that plays any defense.  We're playin' 4-on-5 every night..."

Like, really?  You wanna trade Trae for Eric Bledsoe or Pat Beverly, then?

Who's gonna own up to being that caller?

Strange to see someone calling in to NBARadio about the Hawks who clearly doesn't watch the Hawks if he thinks Trae is what is keeping this team from greatness.

[kg01]

23 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

It’s 7am here in the west coast when did this happen? That wasn’t a Hawks fan. Some of those caller stink. 
Ps Have u ever called kg? I called and got on a few times. I think it was whatever topic they were discussing lol. I called in when it was Cam and somebody, wasn’t Antonio though that day.

I may call stay tuned I’ll shout you guys out as the Hawks fam.

It was towards the end of the morning show.

I haven't called for a couple years.  Last time I called, they were talking about why the Hawks fans always boo former players when they return.

I called to explain we boo guys like Horford who have made comments about fan support as if they're listless, middling play and losing has no impact on fan support.  Like it's the fans' fault.  That's why they get boo'd.

Nobody boos guys like Teague or Bazemore because he's never made anti-fan comments.