Hawks 2021 Raptor ratings and WAR observations

[Atlantaholic]

So Raptor ratings are availalbe now for the 2021 season. For those of those who don't know these ratings are like an advanced +- for both offense and defense; the score represents how many points a player contributes over a replacement level player. Similar to WAR but measuring points scored and points given up instead of wins. 

Trae Young is currently 3rd in the NBA in offensive Raptor just a fraction of a point behind Steph Curry. Defensively though he ranks 6th worst, which is actually more or less where he always ranks. He has actually improved the defensive raptor rating the last week, before the Houston game he was second worst in the NBA.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

Other player's of note, Collins has the highest net raptor on the team and is eitgth best in the NBA. Definitly in line with the eye test IMO as I think this is hands down the best season Collins' has had so far on both ends of the floor. Capela who was a MONSTER last year in defensive raptor ranking 2nd behind only Gobert is still having a solid season but is down to 20th in the NBA. 

Comparing this year to last year I think the two biggest reasons the Hawks have underachieved according to the high expectations a lot of us had coming in are two fold. Firstly we all underestimated how difficult it would be for Bogi (or any other wing on the team) to match the production he gave the team after coming back from injury last year. Dude played absolutely out of his mind for that 30 game stretch and after a dreadful start ended up finishing around top 30 in both net raptor and WAR. So far this year there has been absolutely no one that has filled that production for us. On the other end Capella's significant decline from defensive MVP caliber to very good defender has really taken a toll on team defense. Players like Trae, Huerter, Bogi and Gallo who run the gammut from terrible to serviceable on defense, have really been exposed this year with Cap playing like a mere mortal. 

[hylndr11]

But why? Do we.know why he has regressed apparently there was an injury at some point , which made sense but he's still nowhere near what he was, this is going to get us, we are not built to deal with this.  Hate saying it but buddy got paid is the only diff we can find here. 

[JayBirdHawk]

6 hours ago, hylndr11 said:

But why? Do we.know why he has regressed apparently there was an injury at some point , which made sense but he's still nowhere near what he was, this is going to get us, we are not built to deal with this.  Hate saying it but buddy got paid is the only diff we can find here. 

Capela had an offseason procedure on his achilles, so he didn't come into the season in peak condition. Additionally, it was stated the achilles was something that would have to be managed all season. 

[Atlantaholic]

44 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

But why? Do we.know why he has regressed apparently there was an injury at some point , which made sense but he's still nowhere near what he was, this is going to get us, we are not built to deal with this.  Hate saying it but buddy got paid is the only diff we can find here. 

Well, it could just be regression to the mean a little bit. I posted about it a lot last year but Cap had one of the best rebounding season in the history of the NBA last year, an incredible 17.1 rebounds per 36 mins, which is better than any season Dennis Rodman had in his entire career except for one, it crushes any season Mutombo had. That 17.1 is weeeelll above Cap's career average and his 2.4 blocks per 36 were also a career high (outside of his rookie season), so a regression there was pretty inevitable. Same thing with Bogi who was an insane 20ppg on 50%fg and 45%3pt in that hot stretch where he was pretty much carrying the offense even when Trae missed games. Bogi's a very solid player but he wasn't ever gonna put together a full season of those insane numbers again.

Having said all this I don't think we can count out the Hawks returning to last year's stretch run form. Yes Capella and Bogi will likely not ever match that outlier level of play they had last year, but on the flipside Trae is having a much better offensive season, and Collins is having a breakout defensive season and continues to be insanely efficient. If we want to get back to contention by the end of the season though, I do think we ARE going to need for Hunter to come back and playe elite defense imo. 

 

[hylndr11]

Thank both u guys for these quality replies

[benhillboy]

If you drop the minutes requirement a bit you’ll see Wright is second on the team in defensive RAPTOR and on par with Tyler Herro in WAR.  

Edited December 18, 2021 by benhillboy

[JTB]

17 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Capela had an offseason procedure on his achilles, so he didn't come into the season in peak condition. Additionally, it was stated the achilles was something that would have to be managed all season. 

It’s killing us though. I know he’s injured but he really doesn’t look the same at all. We almost just need to prepare to trade him and just be done with it. Knowing the Achilles issue I’m surprised schlenk extended him 

[RedDawg#8]

On 12/18/2021 at 7:28 AM, JTB said:

Knowing the Achilles issue I’m surprised schlenk extended him 

This.

We were under no pressure to have to extend him. We already had his replacement in OO waiting and we had Clint for 2 more seasons while OO developed.

His extension was the only one I scratched my head at this offseason. I think everyone else who got paid is performing up to par with their new deals.

[Atlantaholic]

On 12/18/2021 at 4:13 AM, benhillboy said:

If you drop the minutes requirement a bit you’ll see Wright is second on the team in defensive RAPTOR and on par with Tyler Herro in WAR.  

Yea, also matches the eye test. I think it's been pretty obvious Delon has been our best perimeter defender this year. If he could just stop passing up open shots now...