To piggyback off niremetal's elite thread on Trae Young, the Trae Young conundrum

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, JTB said:

This must have been discussed behind the scenes recently and perhaps after Collins and Gallo public comments because the past 3 or so games I’ve been seeing different people bring the ball up the court a lot more often like Gallo, Huerter, Bogi.

I get it’s Traes style but I think this one is an easy adjustment for Trae is a player like Simmons is on the team too. Trae knows Simmons can pass it down court or get it up court like he can. You may disagree Trae can adjust his style on this part of his game but I believe he can especially with a player like Simmons 

It's always nice in thought but in reality, it dont work like that. Lakers thought they could fix Westbrook but he plays like Westbrook. Lakers play Bron ball. Mavs play Luka ball. The thought was Porzingis is a stud. Top 20 player at that time. Its gonna be fun! Man, they play Luka ball. It's always fun when its just you NBA 2king it. 

I rather focus on players that fit Trae's style of play. Not Trae needs to change this and that to fit. That's likely not going to happen much less be maintained. 

Edited January 15, 2022 by NBASupes

[aali34]

I'm with @Diesel on this one.

We have talented players that can drive, pass and shoot. We need to play at a faster pace and utilize the height and length of our wings better.

More curls and off-ball screens and less pounding the rock and high pnr. Trae is the best pnr gaurd in the NBA, he can his shot at any point in the shot clock so it shouldn't be our first option all the time. It should be used when possessions slow down or when the opportunity is fitting. Keep the defense guessing.

Nate's not an offensive guru so I don't know if he can design an offense that can take advantage of all our shooters. 

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, aali34 said:

We have talented players that can drive

I take exception to this part.

[aali34]

25 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

It's always nice in thought but in reality, it dont work like that. Lakers thought they could fix Westbrook but he plays like Westbrook. Lakers play Bron ball. Mavs play Luka ball. The thought was Porzingis is a stud. Top 20 player at that time. Its gonna be fun! Man, they play Luka ball. It's always fun when its just you NBA 2king it. 

I rather focus on players that fit Trae's style of play. Not Trae needs to change this and that to fit. That's likely not going to happen much less be maintained. 

Trae looks more open to change though. Plus he's a better shooter than Russ and can navigate as an offball player better than Luka. 

He's got to grow on that end for sure. 

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, aali34 said:

Trae looks more open to change though. Plus he's a better shooter than Russ and can navigate as an offball player better than Luka. 

He's got to grow on that end for sure. 

I would say he is less likely to change than Russ. I saw young Russ grow when he turned into prime Russ. I really haven't seen much growth from Trae from a playing stance. He's gotten better. Much better but he is still Trae. His game is his game.

With Russ, he really improved his passing and his feel for the position at PG going into his prime. Can you say Trae is much different than he was in the 2nd half of his rookie season other than being better at skills and knowing what teams are going to do to him but still, he's primarily the same player  

[JTB]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

It's always nice in thought but in reality, it dont work like that. Lakers thought they could fix Westbrook but he plays like Westbrook. Lakers play Bron ball. Mavs play Luka ball. The thought was Porzingis is a stud. Top 20 player at that time. Its gonna be fun! Man, they play Luka ball. It's always fun when its just you NBA 2king it. 

I rather focus on players that fit Trae's style of play. Not Trae needs to change this and that to fit. That's likely not going to happen much less be maintained. 

I can respect that opinion.

I wonder if Schlenk is thinking like this however 

[Diesel]

5 hours ago, JTB said:

Sabonis and Capela….does this duo work? 
 

offensively Sabonis need space to operate and be the good post scorer he is. Having capela crowds some of that space since capela can’t stretch the defense like Myles Turner can.

 

Defensively can Sabonis truly cover 4s? Most are out there on the perimeter these days.

Exactly.

Sabonis is really a 5 like his daddy.   The problem when he first got to Indy is that Nate would play him off the bench because Nate said that he and Myles are both 5s.   Even though Turner stepped into the skillset of a 4,  Myles outside shooting is poor.  Now Sabonis plus JC would work if Sabonis was playing the 5... but I don't think he wants that label and defensive responsibility.  But he can't guard 4s either.  Him and Embiid or Him and Joker would be great.  But not here. 

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, JTB said:

I can respect that opinion.

I wonder if Schlenk is thinking like this however 

I just wrapped up the pod on this thread but there is a chance that this Simmons could be a hit for Atlanta. Every big has improved offensively with Trae. Every single one! But is Simmons a big or a wing offensively is the ultimate question because every wing played their worse with Trae outside of Bogi who is playing his worst this year. 

[JTB]

14 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I just wrapped up the pod on this thread but there is a chance that this Simmons could be a hit for Atlanta. Every big has improved offensively with Trae. Every single one! But is Simmons a big or a wing offensively is the ultimate question because every wing played their worse with Trae outside of Bogi who is playing his worst this year. 

Simmons is a BIG on offense and a 1-4 defender in my opinion.

I don’t personally believe Simmons will man a wing position offensively anymore for the rest of his career no matter what team he goes to. That’s not to say he won’t handle the ball and run the offense but every team from here on out will plan to put shooters around Simmons which may give him the opportunity to actually score more then his career avg if he plays with a true shooting center.

Embiid adjusted his game to fit Simmons but let’s be honest about Embiid ….he’s still his best scoring wise in the post or high post Ups for mid range shots….not to say he can’t hit 3s can and can do it well but that doesn’t mean that’s his best game (not saying you’re saying it is Supes)…just pointing out that Embiid as elite as he is probably wasn’t Simmons best fit either…well obviously. 
 

post the pod when you can .

Edited January 15, 2022 by JTB

[h4wkfan]

16 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I just wrapped up the pod on this thread but there is a chance that this Simmons could be a hit for Atlanta. Every big has improved offensively with Trae. Every single one! But is Simmons a big or a wing offensively is the ultimate question because every wing played their worse with Trae outside of Bogi who is playing his worst this year. 

Not surprisingly- the last 2 years. Bogi, Huerter and Hunter had a much improved offensive rating + net rating with trae on. Vs off the court.  their defensive rating obviously took a hit. Not that net rating is an end all - be all by any means, but it’s an interesting data point nonetheless. 
 

the only primary wing that is not better with trae on the court? cam. 
 

im not sold that having another offensive wing that can play on/off the ball wouldn’t elevate the team as much  as an offensive big. KAT, Jokic, Embiid not included. The jaylen browns and Khris Middletons of the world. 

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, h4wkfan said:

Not surprisingly- the last 2 years. Bogi, Huerter and Hunter had a much improved offensive rating + net rating with trae on. Vs off the court.  their defensive rating obviously took a hit. Not that net rating is an end all - be all by any means, but it’s an interesting data point nonetheless. 
 

the only primary wing that is not better with trae on the court? cam. 
 

im not sold that having another offensive wing that can play on/off the ball wouldn’t elevate the team as much  as an offensive big. KAT, Jokic, Embiid not included. The jaylen browns and Khris Middletons of the world. 

I am talking about before the Hawks or after the Hawks and with the Hawks. Kevin, Hunter, and Cam haven't played a game outside of Atlanta. Bogi is having his worst season as a pro this year. 

We already know our PG's outside of Trae come here to die in Atlanta. 

[h4wkfan]

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I am talking about before the Hawks or after the Hawks and with the Hawks. Kevin, Hunter, and Cam haven't played a game outside of Atlanta. Bogi is having his worst season as a pro this year. 

We already know our PG's outside of Trae come here to die in Atlanta. 

I see the argument, but I’m of the opinion that the sample is not evidence trae negatively impacts wings. 
 

Taurean/Baze had 1 season with rookie trae. Which by all metrics was his worst season, by far. I think it’s fair to throw that season out. The other wings are fringe rotation players at best. And for the most part, they hovered around career averages. But even then. Those are players if you are looking for an 8th man. Not sure how much anyone could get out of them. 
 

bogi is the 1 good example. And his first season with trae was by far his career best. Not sure what is going on with him this year. He looks a step slow on d and is clanking open looks on o this year. Is that trae or ?? 
 

you could be right, but I don’t see sufficient data to support it yet. Backup PGs do come here to die tho.

[NBASupes]

19 minutes ago, h4wkfan said:

I see the argument, but I’m of the opinion that the sample is not evidence trae negatively impacts wings. 
 

Taurean/Baze had 1 season with rookie trae. Which by all metrics was his worst season, by far. I think it’s fair to throw that season out. The other wings are fringe rotation players at best. And for the most part, they hovered around career averages. But even then. Those are players if you are looking for an 8th man. Not sure how much anyone could get out of them. 
 

bogi is the 1 good example. And his first season with trae was by far his career best. Not sure what is going on with him this year. He looks a step slow on d and is clanking open looks on o this year. Is that trae or ?? 
 

you could be right, but I don’t see sufficient data to support it yet. Backup PGs do come here to die tho.

The problem is, it didn't matter if the big was good, a scrub, a rotational player. Every single one got better due to Trae. 

The opposite is true for the wings. Bogi who might be the ideal 2 for Trae had his best year last year is having his worst season as a pro this year. Even worse than his rookie year. Everyone else had one of the worst seasons with the Hawks playing with Trae. Every single one. 

I am stating facts, not trying to say this just to say it. 

Trae's game is big man heavy and it makes sense too. 

[h4wkfan]

Ehh. I’m not arguing he makes bigs better. He absolutely does. I’m saying there isn’t enough data to support your claim without question he makes wings worse.
 

You argue that everyone has had one of their worst seasons.  Take out his rookie year. So the fact that trae didn’t make an aging hill and an aging snell better indicates he makes wings worse? Add on that treveon graham (10 mpg in atl) who hasn’t played in the NBA since playing with Atlanta? Or the Justin Anderson (12 mpg in atl) who has played in 16 nba games since playing with the hawks? These guys were on their way out of the league. With or without trae. 
 

Did trae make bogi fall asleep on defense this year? Why not last year? Or miss open shots this year? All it will take is another 1/2 season bogi hot streak and his metrics will be just as good as they were last year. 
 

I think we are just talking in circles at this point. 

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, h4wkfan said:

Ehh. I’m not arguing he makes bigs better. He absolutely does. I’m saying there isn’t enough data to support your claim without question he makes wings worse.
 

You argue that everyone has had one of their worst seasons.  Take out his rookie year. So the fact that trae didn’t make an aging hill and an aging snell better indicates he makes wings worse? Add on that treveon graham (10 mpg in atl) who hasn’t played in the NBA since playing with Atlanta? Or the Justin Anderson (12 mpg in atl) who has played in 16 nba games since playing with the hawks? These guys were on their way out of the league. With or without trae. 
 

Did trae make bogi fall asleep on defense this year? Why not last year? Or miss open shots this year? All it will take is another 1/2 season bogi hot streak and his metrics will be just as good as they were last year. 
 

I think we are just talking in circles at this point. 

The same data that he makes the wings worse is the same data he makes the bigs better. I am not following. 

[JTB]

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

The same data that he makes the wings worse is the same data he makes the bigs better. I am not following. 

I think @h4wkfan is saying the wings prior to when Trae was still figuring out the nba (Prince/Bazemore) weren’t really good and Trae was still trying to get better in this league offensively….then fast forward to when Trae has now improved a ton on offense his new wings at the time (Hunter/Reddish/Huerter) are all young guys as well trying to get acclimated to the nba world.

outside of Bogi who’s a vet, Trae hasn’t necessarily played with a player of great talent offensively or one who’s reached the levels of great talent offensively (Hunter & Reddish)….I would say Bogi is solid and really good at 3s

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, JTB said:

I think @h4wkfan is saying the wings prior to when Trae was still figuring out the nba (Prince/Bazemore) weren’t really good and Trae was still trying to get better in this league offensively….then fast forward to when Trae has now improved a ton on offense his new wings at the time (Hunter/Reddish/Huerter) are all young guys as well trying to get acclimated to the nba world.

outside of Bogi who’s a vet, Trae hasn’t necessarily played with a player of great talent offensively or one who’s reached the levels of great talent offensively (Hunter & Reddish)….I would say Bogi is solid and really good at 3s

I get what he's trying to say. The issue is, I posted all types of players that are bigs and wings. Almost all are scrubs or rotational players. We only have a few players from the Bud era that played with Trae as well. He's trying to say we dont have enough good wings listed. I agree but I do think we have enough data to showcase a hypothesis. 

[h4wkfan]

Damnit! I typed a long winded message out, and clicked post. Then it disappeared. Oh well. Take 2...

Ersan: He never played with Trae.

 

Dewayne Dedmon: Outside of WAR, there aren't really any statistics that indicates his 1 year with Trae was better than his previous 2 without. PER, WS/48, BPM, VORP all say the 3 seasons are similar ('16-17 may have been the best). Perhaps this was just a really strong window with Dewayne. He saw a drop-off in his first 10 games w/ Atlanta in the '19-20 season as well. His current season may be better than his year w/ Trae. Did Trae really make that much of a difference here?

Alex Len: He had a good 3 year run 17-18 through the 19-20 season. 2 seasons with trae. Again - no major difference between how he played with and without trae during this window. A number of metrics show he was a more impactful player during his 17-18 season with the Suns. Did Trae really make that much of a difference here?

Damian Jones: 2 seasons playing 500 + minutes. 1 with NOT ROOKIE Trae and the next year without. These 2 seasons are very similar to one another. Did Trae really make that much of a difference here?

Jabari Parker: 32 game sample, but NOT ROOKIE trae elevated his game. It's hard to put a lot of weight into that short run, but for argument's sake, I will. 

Bruno Fernando: Not enough data. He had 1 season where he played any meaningful minutes, and that was Trae during Bruno's rookie year. He is not a useful example. 

Clint Capela: He turned in his - without question - best season with Trae in year 1. Stellar year. Clint who might be the ideal 5 for Trae had his best year last year is having his worst season as a pro this year. Even worse than his rookie year. So my question is ... why is Trae making Clint worse in year 2 just like he is doing to Bogi?

By the numbers, Trae made 1 of his primary bigs - before Clint - better for a 30ish game stretch. If you want to argue he made them all better offensively? Yes, I agree. But as a whole ... their impact on the game? I don't see a separation.

 

Kent Bazemore: He definitely took a step back w/  ROOKIE Trae, but the follow-up season was equally as bad (without Trae) looking at the metrics. He was arguably worse the following year even.

Taurean Prince: He is essentially the same player since the 17-18 season (pre trae). His lone season with ROOKIE Trae may have posted one of his worse WAR seasons, but that season was better than his career average for PER and WS/48 while being in line with his averages for VORP + BPM. His year w/ Trae is on par (other than looking at WAR) with the next 3 -- current included. 

Bembry: Offensively worse. Defensively better. As a whole, his best year in Atlanta was with Trae. His year w/ Trae posted one of his better WAR seasons while also being in line with his career averages for PER, BPM and VORP, but just shy of his average WS/48. The year after Trae was the opposite of Taurean -- improved PER, WS/48, BPM, VORP, but a worse WAR.

Snell + Others: Washed up - I'm not taking them as an indictment on Trae for reasons previously stated. 

His wings for the most part improved offensively playing w/ Trae, but were worse off on the defensive end. Is that a surprise though? I stand by -- rookie trae and trae today are not the same players as all of these guys played w/ rookie trae. The only example of not rookie Trae impact we have is Bogi + following Cam moving forward. 

 

When you give NOT ROOKIE Trae talent HE ELEVATES THEM (Bogi + Clint) in year 1. Every wing (sans Cam) that we have plays better with Trae than not. I lean towards thinking the drop-off in year 2 has to do with injuries and covid.

Edited January 16, 2022 by h4wkfan

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, h4wkfan said:

Damnit! I typed a long winded message out, and clicked post. Then it disappeared. Oh well. Take 2...

Ersan: He never played with Trae.

 

Dewayne Dedmon: Outside of WAR, there aren't really any statistics that indicates his 1 year with Trae was better than his previous 2 without. PER, WS/48, BPM, VORP all say the 3 seasons are similar ('16-17 may have been the best). Perhaps this was just a really strong window with Dewayne. He saw a drop-off in his first 10 games w/ Atlanta in the '19-20 season as well. His current season may be better than his year w/ Trae. Did Trae really make that much of a difference here?

Alex Len: He had a good 3 year run 17-18 through the 19-20 season. 2 seasons with trae. Again - no major difference between how he played with and without trae during this window. A number of metrics show he was a more impactful player during his 17-18 season with the Suns. Did Trae really make that much of a difference here?

Damian Jones: 2 seasons playing 500 + minutes. 1 with NOT ROOKIE Trae and the next year without. These 2 seasons are very similar to one another. Did Trae really make that much of a difference here?

Jabari Parker: 32 game sample, but NOT ROOKIE trae elevated his game. It's hard to put a lot of weight into that short run, but for argument's sake, I will. 

Bruno Fernando: Not enough data. He had 1 season where he played any meaningful minutes, and that was Trae during Bruno's rookie year. He is not a useful example. 

Clint Capela: He turned in his - without question - best season with Trae in year 1. Stellar year. Clint who might be the ideal 5 for Trae had his best year last year is having his worst season as a pro this year. Even worse than his rookie year. So my question is ... why is Trae making Clint worse in year 2 just like he is doing to Bogi?

By the numbers, Trae made 1 of his primary bigs - before Clint - better for a 30ish game stretch. If you want to argue he made them all better offensively? Yes, I agree. But as a whole ... their impact on the game? I don't see a separation.

 

Kent Bazemore: He definitely took a step back w/  ROOKIE Trae, but the follow-up season was equally as bad (without Trae) looking at the metrics. He was arguably worse the following year even.

Taurean Prince: He is essentially the same player since the 17-18 season (pre trae). His lone season with ROOKIE Trae may have posted one of his worse WAR seasons, but that season was better than his career average for PER and WS/48 while being in line with his averages for VORP + BPM. His year w/ Trae is on par (other than looking at WAR) with the next 3 -- current included. 

Bembry: Offensively worse. Defensively better. As a whole, his best year in Atlanta was with Trae. His year w/ Trae posted one of his better WAR seasons while also being in line with his career averages for PER, BPM and VORP, but just shy of his average WS/48. The year after Trae was the opposite of Taurean -- improved PER, WS/48, BPM, VORP, but a worse WAR.

Snell + Others: Washed up - I'm not taking them as an indictment on Trae for reasons previously stated. 

His wings for the most part improved offensively playing w/ Trae, but were worse off on the defensive end. Is that a surprise though? I stand by -- rookie trae and trae today are not the same players as all of these guys played w/ rookie trae. The only example of not rookie Trae impact we have is Bogi + following Cam moving forward. 

 

When you give NOT ROOKIE Trae talent HE ELEVATES THEM (Bogi + Clint) in year 1. Every wing (sans Cam) that we have plays better with Trae than not. I lean towards thinking the drop-off in year 2 has to do with injuries and covid.

I realized that later. Simple mistake. 

Dedmon doesn't even play that many many mins with Miami. I covered it in the pod. 

Len was more effective with Atlanta. With the Suns, the team was awful with or without him. Even his 82games.com proves it. 

http://www.82games.com/1718/1718PHO.HTM

http://www.82games.com/1819/1819ATL.HTM

He was a lot more productive on offense. That's basically the point, Trae makes his bigs better. 

Listen to the pod tomorrow. I went into more detail with Parker there. 

That's what I said about Bruno. Not enough mins outside of ATL. Do you not see the charts on the first post? 

The 1/5 PnR got downloaded like the 1/4 PnR got downloaded after Trae's rookie season. 

He was terrible in POR too but much better with SAC and GS. You can't leave that out which it seems you have. It seems to me you want to make an excuse. 

You can argue Prince was more productive offensively. His defense was the worst of his career. So while he fit Trae on offense better than he has others, his defense was significantly worse. This is common where a player is a good fit with Trae on one end and much worse on the other. 

http://www.82games.com/1819/1819ATL.HTM

http://www.82games.com/1920/1920BKN.HTM

Bembry with a similar trend. 

Saying washed up is your take. Most of these guys are not good. That's why many are not here anymore. I still think you are trying too hard when this is fairly obvious. 

[aali34]

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

The 1/5 PnR got downloaded like the 1/4 PnR got downloaded after Trae's rookie season. 

 

Perimeter players gotta make them pay during scramble situations.

Either the 4 gotta be a playmaker or the 2 gotta be a scorer. We got neither.