Official Game Thread: Lakers at Hawks (1 PM Tip!)

[AHF]

16 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

They want Trae to do every single thing he is doing but also have an elite turnover/assist ratio and play good defense. If he could do that he would be the consensus no doubt about it MVP. If that is the bar, maybe it's not the most realistic one? 

Look, we all know he needs to limit turnovers and maximize defense, but most of us are willing to accept baby steps in those areas when he is doing such an incredible amount of things scoring the ball and setting guys up. 

Let's look at that top in assists per game and see how they look on turnover %:

1 - Chris Paul.  15.4%

2 - James Harden.  19.6%

3 - Trae Young. 15.1%

5 - Kyle Lowry.  20.2%

6 - Darius Garland.  17.5%  

7 - Nikola Jokic.  15.1%

9 - Russell Westbrook.  18.3%

10 - Tyrese Haliburton.  15.6%

 

So among the top 10 of players in assists per game, Trae is tied for the third best turnover%.  Notably, Trae does this while carrying a higher scoring responsibility than any of them.  (Trae is #1 in the league in total points and #4 in points per game while Jokic is the only other top 10 scorer and he is #8).

[LucastheThird]

2 hours ago, bleachkit said:

I'll know I'll get roasted for this. But why at the end of games it's always Trae dribbling for 20 seconds and then a tough contested shot? I'm not saying Trae isn't a superstar, I'm not saying he isn't the best player as have had in a long time. But nevertheless, I don't think dribbling the air out of the ball and then attempting a long three isnt the way to go. 

No roasting from me, I've called it out in the last few game threads myself. It's like playing prevent defense in football at the end of the game. 

[Atlantaholic]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Let's look at that top in assists per game and see how they look on turnover %:

1 - Chris Paul.  15.4%

2 - James Harden.  19.6%

3 - Trae Young. 15.1%

5 - Kyle Lowry.  20.2%

6 - Darius Garland.  17.5%  

7 - Nikola Jokic.  15.1%

9 - Russell Westbrook.  18.3%

10 - Tyrese Haliburton.  15.6%

 

So among the top 10 of players in assists per game, Trae is tied for the third best turnover%.  Notably, Trae does this while carrying a higher scoring responsibility than any of them.  (Trae is #1 in the league in total points and #4 in points per game while Jokic is the only other top 10 scorer and he is #8).

Ah good catch. Usually we only look at Assist/turnover but as you point out there's more to it than that. Trae has the ball in his hands almost the entire time he is out there on offense, that's a big reason his overall number is high. Interesting to see that viewed as a % his total is actually very low, which is probably the reason the Hawks rank #1 in the NBA in TOs.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, bleachkit said:

I'll know I'll get roasted for this. But why at the end of games it's always Trae dribbling for 20 seconds and then a tough contested shot? I'm not saying Trae isn't a superstar, I'm not saying he isn't the best player as have had in a long time. But nevertheless, I don't think dribbling the air out of the ball and then attempting a long three isnt the way to go. 

This was a terrible strategy when Kobe was holding the ball and it is a terrible strategy with Trae holding the ball and it would be a terrible strategy no matter who is holding the ball.  There are always better options than this unless you literally don't care about scoring and just are looking to burn clock.

[Atlantaholic]

3 minutes ago, LucastheThird said:

No roasting from me, I've called it out in the last few game threads myself. It's like playing prevent defense in football at the end of the game. 

I agree 100%, and it's not just Trae either. We did some Iso with Bogi as well and it makes no sense to me. We should be running our PnR, forcing mismatches etc. 

[Diesel]

52 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

I agree 100%, and it's not just Trae either. We did some Iso with Bogi as well and it makes no sense to me. We should be running our PnR, forcing mismatches etc. 

I think we are running our PNR... On the other side of the floor.   Trae looks to be waiting for a player to come off of a screen on the off side of the ball most of the time.  I saw somebody mention Kobe.  Kobe.. whenever he had the ball in the crunch was not looking for the pass and was not running a play, it was Joe Johnson esque isoball.   At which both Joe and Kobe were good at.   I dont see that as what Trae is doing.  IN fact, most of the time, he's not being guarded very closely.. which is why his bail out is the three.   Next time you think he's doing Iso.. notice what's going on on the other side of the court.   Look to see if somebody is coming off of a screen.  Especially right after Trae waives off a screen.

 

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

This was a terrible strategy when Kobe was holding the ball and it is a terrible strategy with Trae holding the ball and it would be a terrible strategy no matter who is holding the ball.  There are always better options than this unless you literally don't care about scoring and just are looking to burn clock.

Trae looks for his shot or a lob to a big. But we have a few other go-to shots on this team I would trust, JC on the jump hook and Dre on midrange pull up. If Bogi or Kevin is wide open for a three you have to consider that as well if they are on. For some reason I don't trust Gallo taking the last shot.

[hazer]

It burns clock, but so does 10 passes swinging side to side, which more often than not produce a wide open shot with less than 5 secs on the shot clock. Drives me bat$hit

Edited January 31, 2022 by hazer

[AtLaS]

3 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

Ah good catch. Usually we only look at Assist/turnover but as you point out there's more to it than that. Trae has the ball in his hands almost the entire time he is out there on offense, that's a big reason his overall number is high. Interesting to see that viewed as a % his total is actually very low, which is probably the reason the Hawks rank #1 in the NBA in TOs.

Hawks are best in the league in team turnovers, tells you all you need to know.  We are a top 5 offense (probably top 3 when healthy) and league low in team turnovers.  Trae is the reason.  We have a player who can dominate the ball and also run a top 5 offense.

We put the ball in our best players hands because he consistently makes plays.  Trae's personal turnovers are high b/c he has the ball and is attacking the defense.  The rest of the players have low turnovers because of him.  If we put the ball in the other players hands more often, their turnovers would increase while Trae's would decrease.  We wouldn't be better off this way.  I'll take 5 TO's per game from the PG position if the rest of the team is only averaging ~1 apiece.  Rather than each starter averaging 3 turnovers apiece.  

Part of being a great passer is making risky (within reason) passes.  There is a risk/reward for passes.  Passes are virtually a guaranteed turnover if misplaced.  But, this is also what makes him great.  Many of the passes he completes wouldn't even be attempted by most players.  If he begins to strictly prioritize lowering turnovers, his assist numbers would go down as he would be focused on not turning the ball over, rather than making plays.

 

 

[Final_quest]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

Let's look at that top in assists per game and see how they look on turnover %:

1 - Chris Paul.  15.4%

2 - James Harden.  19.6%

3 - Trae Young. 15.1%

5 - Kyle Lowry.  20.2%

6 - Darius Garland.  17.5%  

7 - Nikola Jokic.  15.1%

9 - Russell Westbrook.  18.3%

10 - Tyrese Haliburton.  15.6%

 

So among the top 10 of players in assists per game, Trae is tied for the third best turnover%.  Notably, Trae does this while carrying a higher scoring responsibility than any of them.  (Trae is #1 in the league in total points and #4 in points per game while Jokic is the only other top 10 scorer and he is #8).

Lock tight.  Basically Trae is best in the league at turnover%.  Not the right thing to criticize him about.  
Amazing analysis.  

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, AtLaS said:

The rest of the players have low turnovers because of him.  If we put the ball in the other players hands more often, their turnovers would increase while Trae's would decrease. 

 

 

The Hawks have played 4 games without Young.  In the games that Young missed, Delon Wright started.  D. Wright had 1 of fewer turnovers in 3 of the 4 games started.  The team averaged 11.5 turnovers in those game Trae Young missed.  The turnovers problem is specific to Young and how he plays.  Some of his turnovers aren't bad passes but mishaps and being careless with the ball.  Young had 5 turnovers in the 1st half of the game with the Lakers and 1 in the entire 2nd half. Zero in the 4th quarter so we know he can play without turning the ball over. If he limits the goofy turnovers, he and the Hawks would have a much easier time beating teams they are suppose to dominate.

[Atlantaholic]

36 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

The Hawks have played 4 games without Young.  In the games that Young missed, Delon Wright started.  D. Wright had 1 of fewer turnovers in 3 of the 4 games started.  The team averaged 11.5 turnovers in those game Trae Young missed.  The turnovers problem is specific to Young and how he plays.  Some of his turnovers aren't bad passes but mishaps and being careless with the ball.  Young had 5 turnovers in the 1st half of the game with the Lakers and 1 in the entire 2nd half. Zero in the 4th quarter so we know he can play without turning the ball over. If he limits the goofy turnovers, he and the Hawks would have a much easier time beating teams they are suppose to dominate.

11.3 is the NBA record for lowest turnover in the history of the NBA.

[Atlantaholic]

9 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

11.3 is the NBA record for lowest turnover in the history of the NBA.

Oh and in those four games the Hawks averaged 97.75 points per game. This would rank dead last in the NBA.

[AHF]

17 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

Oh and in those four games the Hawks averaged 97.75 points per game. This would rank dead last in the NBA.

Yep.  With Trae, we are one of the best offenses in terms of production and leading the league in turnovers.  Without Trae, the offense craters into some terrible productivity - we've got 4 years of data that says that same thing every year.  I hope we don't get enough games without Trae this season to meaningfully measure the turnover rate in his absence but will be interested to watch that.  

 

18 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

The Hawks have played 4 games without Young.  In the games that Young missed, Delon Wright started.  D. Wright had 1 of fewer turnovers in 3 of the 4 games started.  The team averaged 11.5 turnovers in those game Trae Young missed.  The turnovers problem is specific to Young and how he plays.  Some of his turnovers aren't bad passes but mishaps and being careless with the ball.  Young had 5 turnovers in the 1st half of the game with the Lakers and 1 in the entire 2nd half. Zero in the 4th quarter so we know he can play without turning the ball over. If he limits the goofy turnovers, he and the Hawks would have a much easier time beating teams they are suppose to dominate.

The team has played 5 games without Trae Young, not 4.  In those games, the team has averaged 12.2 turnovers.

For the season, the team averages 12.2 turnovers per game so we are seeing the same turnover rate with much worse offensive production.

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Yep.  With Trae, we are one of the best offenses in terms of production and leading the league in turnovers.  Without Trae, the offense craters into some terrible productivity - we've got 4 years of data that says that same thing every year.  I hope we don't get enough games without Trae this season to meaningfully measure the turnover rate in his absence but will be interested to watch that.  

 

The team has played 5 games without Trae Young, not 4.  In those games, the team has averaged 12.2 turnovers.

For the season, the team averages 12.2 turnovers per game so we are seeing the same turnover rate with much worse offensive production.

In his defense he made the post before the fifth game. Still drawing conclusions in a 4 game sample is pretty ridiculous, all it took was one game to change the entire thesis lol. 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Atlantaholic said:

In his defense he made the post before the fifth game. Still drawing conclusions in a 4 game sample is pretty ridiculous, all it took was one game to change the entire thesis lol. 

Game 6 won't change anything.  Will still be small sample size with an insignificant difference in turnovers but a (likely*) significant difference in offensive production. 

 

* (I say it is likely significant because the difference is so dramatic but it is possible that it would still be statistically insignificant due to small sample size).

[Atlantaholic]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Game 6 won't change anything.  Will still be small sample size with an insignificant difference in turnovers but a (likely*) significant difference in offensive production. 

 

* (I say it is likely significant because the difference is so dramatic but it is possible that it would still be statistically insignificant due to small sample size).

FYI.. if we adjust the turnovers for pace we actually are averaging 12.7 turnover per 97.5 posessions vs 12.3 turnovers per 97.5 posessions without Trae vs with Trae in those five games. 

[sturt]

14 minutes ago, AHF said:

we've got 4 years of data that says that same thing every year

 

Just to put some context... how many of those years would you say we've had a credible back-up PG behind Trae?

 

Me, I'm slow to take anything but this year as meaningful, for that reason... and even then, I'm slow to take the confounding set of players available on any given night this season as allowing us to reach any conclusions for this one... thus, especially small sample, imo... one?

[Atlantaholic]

5 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

Just to put some context... how many of those years would you say we've had a credible back-up PG behind Trae?

 

Me, I'm slow to take anything but this year as meaningful, for that reason... and even then, I'm slow to take the confounding set of players available on any given night this season as allowing us to reach any conclusions for this one... thus, especially small sample, imo... one?

Well there are metrics that isolate (try to isolate) those factors. Offensive raptor, offensive win shares, etc. Trae ranks towards the top of the league every year. 

[sturt]

25 minutes ago, AHF said:

offense craters into some terrible productivity

... is the part I was referencing. It is at least plausible that if Delon finally gets enough work with the first unit, eventually said-cratering evolves into, at least, some decent productivity. But it does take time. Unfortunately.