Official Game Thread: Hawks at Magic

[cam1218]

I prefer Bogi over Hueter, but it's hard to ignore the numbers regarding who should start (at least at this point). I was reading the ESPN article on Trae earlier and when they quoted Lou, they introduced him as "Hawks guard and three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams." It had me thinking that we need Lou to get into both of these guys ears about embracing that role and striving to do what he did at a high level for many years. You'll never hear "Hawks guard and productive starter Kevin Hurter" in any type of article. There is nothing wrong with coming off the bench, and you will actually get more recognition as being Sixth Man of the Year as opposed to being a non All-Star starting player. Plus, if you are playing well you better believe you will be in the game in the 4th quarter when it matters.

[JeffS17]

The crazy part is Bogi's touches/shots will probably go down the more he plays with a fully health starting unit with JC/Hunter/Trae all getting shots up.  If I was him, I'd prefer to come off the bench as a #1 option, shoot at will, and still close out games with the starters.  

[Sothron]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

You have to realize though that this isn't just about Kevin.  It is also about Bogi.  BOTH players have functioned better with Kevin starting and Bogi coming off the bench.

Here are Bogi's splits:

Ignoring Kevin completely, which would you say has been the more effective role for this player?  Coming off the bench where he is the first option, more productive, more efficient and delivering a net +10.7 +/- or starting where he is the third option, less productive, less efficient, and delivering a net -2.1 +/-?

So Bogi's failure to play well as a starter is somewhat being ignored in these comments.

Now let's compare apples to apples.  Who has been the better starter this year?

Bogi:

Kevin:

More points?  Kevin

Better scoring efficiency?  Kevin

Better +/-?  Kevin

Better rebounding?  Bogi

Better assists?  Kevin

More steals / blocks?  Kevin

Better defensive rating?  Bogi

Better offensive rating?  Kevin

So there is a pretty good case for Kevin having outperformed Bogi this season in the starting role as well.

 

This issue isn't such a slam dunk disrespect to Bogi and the issue that makes it so easy for fans to quickly conclude that we are better off with Huerter starting and Bogi being the top option with the second unit is Bogi's subpar performance when he has started.  If Bogi was clearly the better player in both roles, he would have a much more legit complaint.

Your splits have  a fatal flaw that render them meaningless. How many of those games you listed was where Bogi was clearly hurt and playing through it? Look at Bogi's splits just in the month of February. Post those numbers and let's talk about who should be starting. This month is the first time all season Bogi has been fully healthy and it is obvious watching him. Not just on offense but also defense. 

[cam1218]

2 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Your splits have  a fatal flaw that render them meaningless. How many of those games you listed was where Bogi was clearly hurt and playing through it? Look at Bogi's splits just in the month of February. Post those numbers and let's talk about who should be starting. This month is the first time all season Bogi has been fully healthy and it is obvious watching him. Not just on offense but also defense. 

I was actually going to post his February stats but decided not to, but he has definitely been on a tear in February. Hopefully he is fully healthy, because we are going to need this version of him if we have any hope to get out of the play-in "tournament". 

[Sothron]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

The best reasons for starting Bogi are about keeping people happy rather than basketball.  That may well be a compelling enough reason to do it anyway because that matters and if it is something that could hurt the Hawks' reputation with other free agents then that is another consideration.  

If Bogi continues to improve and ramps up like he did last year (his February play is still well short of what he did last year during his hot streak), he will force the issue and it will become a non-issue, imo.  The ball is in his hands, so to speak.

But from a basketball perspective even if Bogi is starting I'd still consider doing what I could to maximize his time as the first option with the reserve unit and Kevin's minutes with the starters based on what they have shown in those roles this season.  (Maybe Bogi is the first to rotate off the floor most games and then comes back on to lead the reserves when most of the other starters are resting, etc.)

If it was my decision Bogi would start, would be the first sub out (not at some token one minute into the game or something silly) but about halfway in the first. Your bring Kevin in off the bench, mix in the starters with bench players. You have it so that Bogi is the clear #1 option with the bench guys like he has been BUT he also plays real minutes as a starter with the starters. It is the best of both worlds.

Just now, cam1218 said:

I was actually going to post his February stats but decided not to, but he has definitely been on a tear in February. Hopefully he is fully healthy, because we are going to need this version of him if we have any hope to get out of the play-in "tournament". 

Seriously  please post Bogi's February stats. People need to see it. This is what a fully healthy Bogi brings to the team.

[marco102]

9 minutes ago, Sothron said:

If it was my decision Bogi would start, would be the first sub out (not at some token one minute into the game or something silly) but about halfway in the first. Your bring Kevin in off the bench, mix in the starters with bench players. You have it so that Bogi is the clear #1 option with the bench guys like he has been BUT he also plays real minutes as a starter with the starters. It is the best of both worlds.

Seriously  please post Bogi's February stats. People need to see it. This is what a fully healthy Bogi brings to the team.

You can't ignore the full body of work and just put more faith in the hot streak.  Yes, Bogi appears healthy, but again, Kevin was out playing Bogi for a significant portion of the season.  

Kevin is inconsistent and I still don't see why you would want Bogi starting if that would hurt the team.

It's not about Kevin, I just see Bogi shinning in this role right now and if that's what it takes to get us back on track that's where I'd prefer him. 

[cam1218]

Regardless of everyone's opinion of him starting, here are his February numbers. He had the stinker in Dallas which is hurting his overall offensive numbers a bit, but he has been filling up the stat sheet across the board nicely. One thing of note is he is also averaging about 2 steals per game during February too. 

 

[marco102]

11 minutes ago, cam1218 said:

Regardless of everyone's opinion of him starting, here are his February numbers. He had the stinker in Dallas which is hurting his overall offensive numbers a bit, but he has been filling up the stat sheet across the board nicely. One thing of note is he is also averaging about 2 steals per game during February too. 

 

This is my thing for THIS season it may be best to keep Bogi in the bench role if we are trying to win. 

This is Kevin as a starter.

GP	MIN	FG	FG%	3PT	3P%	FT	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
37	31.1	4.9-10.3	48.0	2.3-5.5	41.5	0.6-0.6	91.3	0.4	2.5	2.9	3.0	0.4	0.7	2.5	1.3	12.8

 

The difference isn't as big as you'd think.  Bogi's seems to excel with the bench unit better. 

Also, Kevin in February

8

30.3

4.8-10.9

43.7

2.5-6.4

39.2

0.3-0.3

100.0

0.5

2.4

2.9

2.8

0.6

0.9

3.1

1.3

12.3

Edited February 18, 2022 by marco102

[shakes]

14 minutes ago, cam1218 said:

Regardless of everyone's opinion of him starting, here are his February numbers. He had the stinker in Dallas which is hurting his overall offensive numbers a bit, but he has been filling up the stat sheet across the board nicely. One thing of note is he is also averaging about 2 steals per game during February too. 

 

How many take fouls did he commit and how many wide open back door cuts did he surrender in February?    Need teh whole picture when talking about Bogi.

[Sothron]

34 minutes ago, cam1218 said:

Regardless of everyone's opinion of him starting, here are his February numbers. He had the stinker in Dallas which is hurting his overall offensive numbers a bit, but he has been filling up the stat sheet across the board nicely. One thing of note is he is also averaging about 2 steals per game during February too. 

 

Thank you. Look at those numbers. 16/4/4 with TWO STEALS a game on a sizzling 48.5% FG, 45.5% 3PT and 90.9  FT percentage on just under 30 minutes a game.  3 of his last 4 games he's gone over 20 a game. THIS is what a healthy Bogi can do. Can someone find Bogi's TS just for February? It has to be eyepopping. His numbers are much better than Kevin's in the same span.

And for those cracking about his defense his defense HAS improved this month because he's finally healthy this season. Meanwhile Kevin is grabbing guys instead of moving his feet or being completely passive on offense. 

[cam1218]

35 minutes ago, marco102 said:

This is my thing for THIS season it may be best to keep Bogi in the bench role if we are trying to win. 

This is Kevin as a starter.

GP	MIN	FG	FG%	3PT	3P%	FT	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
37	31.1	4.9-10.3	48.0	2.3-5.5	41.5	0.6-0.6	91.3	0.4	2.5	2.9	3.0	0.4	0.7	2.5	1.3	12.8

 

The difference isn't as big as you'd think.  Bogi's seems to excel with the bench unit better. 

Also, Kevin in February

8

30.3

4.8-10.9

43.7

2.5-6.4

39.2

0.3-0.3

100.0

0.5

2.4

2.9

2.8

0.6

0.9

3.1

1.3

12.3

I hear you for sure. I think Bogi is a better player, but I wish we could find a way to make everyone happy with their roles (hence me wanting Lou to get in their ears above). Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be happening now. 

[cam1218]

37 minutes ago, shakes said:

How many take fouls did he commit and how many wide open back door cuts did he surrender in February?    Need teh whole picture when talking about Bogi.

Not to derail the who should be starting thing, but you can look at what any player is doing well and find other things like you just did to "yeah-but" about. People have done that with Trae his entire career, "yeah but he gives it right back up on the other end."  The Hawks as a team are poor defensively right now, so it isn't fair to just look at what Bogi isn't good at on that end.

Bogi has been getting 2 steals a game, rebounding well, getting multiple assists, and scoring at an efficient level. He's doing plenty of good right now to help the team. So regardless of him starting or coming off the bench, Bogi appears to be finally getting healthy and he is our second best offensive player when he is right. For our sake, we all need to hope he can stay healthy down the stretch. 

[AHF]

On 2/18/2022 at 2:02 PM, Sothron said:

If it was my decision Bogi would start, would be the first sub out (not at some token one minute into the game or something silly) but about halfway in the first. Your bring Kevin in off the bench, mix in the starters with bench players. You have it so that Bogi is the clear #1 option with the bench guys like he has been BUT he also plays real minutes as a starter with the starters. It is the best of both worlds.

Seriously  please post Bogi's February stats. People need to see it. This is what a fully healthy Bogi brings to the team.

I'd be fine if the coaches wanted to go with your plan.  

But bear in mind that all of Bogi's outstanding February stats are with him coming off the bench so if you ignore small sample size and assume those are real numbers that reflect his baseline play then you can equally use those numbers to make the case that he is better coming off the bench until he proves it as a starter.  Bogi will need to start and sustain his .633% TS% over a larger sample of games to prove to me that is truly his baseline and we can expect him to keep shooting at that efficiency whenever healthy.

(Frankly, I think this is both a case of him getting healthy and being on a hot shooting streak.   Just like his hot streak last year wasn't his baseline, a hot streak this year isn't his baseline just a like his shooting during his cold streaks don't represent his norm.)