Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat Playoff Series

[bleachkit]

27 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

You have to steal at least one game on the road in the playoffs.  If a team fails to steal one in the first two games then they only have 2 chances left.  Of course the odds will be stacked against them relative to prior to the series starting when the away team already had worse than 50% odds.

1v8 is already much worse odds than 20%.  There have been 72 1v8 series and only 4 of them have been upsets.  That means we had a 5.5% chance of an upset if you are using that same methodology of going by historical numbers.  5.5% is much worse than 20%.  

So, again, I'm not saying the series is over until it is over and I'm not getting overly worked up until we lose a home game.

Yes statistically speaking it's not over if we lose tonight. But we would be way behind the 8 ball. Question. Has an 8th seed down 0-2 ever beaten the 1 seed?

[Final_quest]

I'm not giving up on the series until we lose one at home.  Doesn't look good for us at the moment, but I still give us a shot until we lose a game in ATL.  

[kg01]

36 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

And they are completely healthy now so what is your point? We are the banged-up team in this series. Again, I think the Hawks have a chance, but without Clint and a hobbled Collins and Bogi (AGAIN) struggling with his knee... we are gonna need BIG time production from somewhere outside of Trae to have a chance at even a long series.

My point is the bubble series is an outlier.  That seems obvious.

[marco102]

John's stroke (pause) is looking much better!!! 

 

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I don't buy that.  In the playoffs, you need to hold serve at home and steal one on the road.  It would be huge for us to get a win tonight but if we lose I'm not throwing in the towel because if we win the next two at home then we are looking at a 3 game series.  We put up a stinker in game 1 but that is 1 game.  I'd bet a lot of money that Trae doesn't have another single point game (unless it is injury caused) in this series.

As far as whether Spoelstra is a good coach, I think he is a very good one.  Where he stacks up against the league's elite coaches is a matter of interpretation but I think he is easily in that top third of coaches.  I give Miami an edge over us in that category.

I don't really buy the home/away logic for playoff series.  It certainly didn't apply to us last year and I don't think it really applies this year.  We really need a win tonight.  I watched the Heat smoke us in our own building with a G league roster this year.  We're 1-4 against Miami for the year, so I'm not sure where all the confidence is coming from.  We need to win this game on the road badly and get our team motivated for the home stand -- getting blown out again would effectively end the series imo.  Anything but a win is going to put us in a near-impossible scenario.  I do not want to bet on the Heat not being able to steal a road game.

 

[AHF]

29 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Yes statistically speaking it's not over if we lose tonight. But we would be way behind the 8 ball. Question. Has an 8th seed down 0-2 ever beaten the 1 seed?

Yes.  Nuggets over Sonics.  First ever 8 over 1.

[AHF]

14 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I don't really buy the home/away logic for playoff series.  It certainly didn't apply to us last year and I don't think it really applies this year.  We really need a win tonight.  I watched the Heat smoke us in our own building with a G league roster this year.  We're 1-4 against Miami for the year, so I'm not sure where all the confidence is coming from.  We need to win this game on the road badly and get our team motivated for the home stand -- getting blown out again would effectively end the series imo.  Anything but a win is going to put us in a near-impossible scenario.  I do not want to bet on the Heat not being able to steal a road game.

 

I'm not super confident we will win the series but losing on the road doesn't change my outlook on the series.  I expect us to need to win 3 times at home and 1 time on the road to take the series.  Obviously, that has to shift if we give one up at home.

34 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Yes statistically speaking it's not over if we lose tonight. But we would be way behind the 8 ball. Question. Has an 8th seed down 0-2 ever beaten the 1 seed?

But, again, 8 seeds lose almost 95% of series so we were way behind the 8 ball before the series began.  We'll still be way behind the 8 ball if we lose tonight.  (As noted above, Nuggets lost the first two games on the road against Seattle during their win.  With only 4 data points, you are talking SSS).

[marco102]

34 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I don't really buy the home/away logic for playoff series.  It certainly didn't apply to us last year and I don't think it really applies this year.  We really need a win tonight.  I watched the Heat smoke us in our own building with a G league roster this year.  We're 1-4 against Miami for the year, so I'm not sure where all the confidence is coming from.  We need to win this game on the road badly and get our team motivated for the home stand -- getting blown out again would effectively end the series imo.  Anything but a win is going to put us in a near-impossible scenario.  I do not want to bet on the Heat not being able to steal a road game.

 

The Hawks have really broken you this season haven't they. You used to be so positive..lol

Not saying this isn't a realistic post, but before you would have aired on the side of the series isn't over if the Hawks are down 0-2.  Series really don't start until you win on the other teams floor. 

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, marco102 said:

The Hawks have really broken you this season haven't they. You used to be so positive..lol

Not saying this isn't a realistic post, but before you would have aired on the side of the series isn't over if the Hawks are down 0-2.  Series really don't start until you win on the other teams floor. 

lol I still feel really good about the team going forward.  We just got into a bad hole this year at 8th seed and not having Clint is definitely a series changing injury.  I am still hoping for the best and if we win tonight I like our odds in the series, but stealing game 5 or 7 feels much harder than splitting 1/2.  Idk why I feel that way but I do.

[marco102]

 

[marco102]

Yup. 

 

[JeffS17]

3 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Yup. 

 

This is what the Raptors did in game two and Embiid shot 12 free throws in the first quarter lol really hope that's not how our game goes.

[marco102]

8 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

This is what the Raptors did in game two and Embiid shot 12 free throws in the first quarter lol really hope that's not how our game goes.

The Heat don't have Embiid or Harden, but the refs do let Jimmy Waltz to the line if someone taps him with a fingernail.  Wish Trae got those calls on his drives.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

20 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

This is what the Raptors did in game two and Embiid shot 12 free throws in the first quarter lol really hope that's not how our game goes.

The premise is for the Hawks to push the envelope in what the refs are allowing. If they're gonna call us for fouls anyways, make them feel it. If they're grabbing and clutching get 'em off ya.

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

Those teams are terrible and they all overperformed so I'm not understanding your point here.

it was stated that spo could win without stars.   that's false.

[JeffS17]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The premise is for the Hawks to push the envelope in what the refs are allowing. If they're gonna call us for fouls anyways, make them feel it. If they're grabbing and clutching get 'em off ya.

Oh I know, it just backfired in the Toronto game as they seemed to call even more fouls.  It's still astonishing to me how Trae can get bullied so hard with no calls but you breathe too close to Embiid and it's a whistle... but I digress. 

I would love to see some scuffles tonight, a guy like Kev getting heated would do wonders for the team energy.  Looking forward to the game, I think it will be a close one

[Atlantaholic]

50 minutes ago, marco102 said:

The Hawks have really broken you this season haven't they. You used to be so positive..lol

Not saying this isn't a realistic post, but before you would have aired on the side of the series isn't over if the Hawks are down 0-2.  Series really don't start until you win on the other teams floor. 

If the Heat win tonight and win game three then the series is OVER by the time someone wins a road game. This is why tonight is huge, if we lose than game three is essentially an elimination game. If we win tonight we can still survive a split in games three and four. 

[Atlantaholic]

Our injuries are a huge factor. OO is not ready to be a full time center, hopefully he has a great bounceback game but if we need to count on him to be full time this whole series we will lose no doubt about it imo. He's capable of having a great game but not sure if he can have 3-4 of them. We need to snatch this game and hope Clint can come back at some point in game either 3 or 4. That's our best shot at this series. 

[marco102]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The premise is for the Hawks to push the envelope in what the refs are allowing. If they're gonna call us for fouls anyways, make them feel it. If they're grabbing and clutching get 'em off ya.

With a not so soft elbow to the head.

I hate to support violence but them trying to injure Trae has me so pissed.