The cobbled together, stuff we held on to during the playoffs mega super rumor and team direction thread.

[Wretch]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

This is all fair.  I wonder if the plan(ish) would be to stagger them so 2 of the 3 have time together without the other.  That makes more sense and probably would help alleviate the fact that those two guards would eat up a lotta production.

Than have all 3 close certain games and be pretty potent offensively?

I dunno, I'm notta coach.

I image we'd double down on the PnR.  We KILLED the Eastern Conference with it last year.  Flat out destroyed NY with it.  We fought and won a grueling series with a highly rated defensive Philly team and followed that up by demoralizing Milwaukee before Trae went down.  How quickly people have forgotten Giannis desperately trying to rally his team.  We were killing them with the PNR...because Bogi was hitting timely shots.

Teams were terrified of the pick and roll and daring us with drop coverage, especially Milwaukee.  We, particularly Bogi, hit some huge shots.  They were still missing a ton which made our run more interesting than it had to be.  I'll not soon forget that run.  Neither will the Eastern Conference.  Teams made adjustments and committed to shutting down Trae Young and the penetration.  They did the same thing they did to LeBron - they took away the lane and said, "Shoot it if you can."  We couldn't.

In a magical world where we got both Ayton and Lavine....

Trae is going to lead the charge, as he should.  Defense collapses, Trae dumps the ball off the penetration and Ayton is a whole other animal compared to Capela.  He's load down there and he will go to work. The double doesn't come or gets there late, Ayton eats all day.  The double comes on time...we move the ball¹, Zach is spotting up for those wide open 3's that no other Hawk can seem to hit right now.  If they manage to cover that shooter, and if Trae is moving without the ball, it's an automatic bucket.  

Works almost the same with Zach working the penetration, but without the same court vision Trae has.  So he's penetrating to score and listening to Chicago fans, he seems to like creating/taking difficult shots so take that FWIW.  I think if Zach is hot, and he should get plenty of opportunity in this scenario to shoot, either he's taking shots from Ayton off the penetration (and scoring at a high clip) or he's taking shots from Ayton who is passing out of the post.  I don't know if Ayton's going to pass out, because he's gifted around the basket.  I don't know if Zach will come here just to give up shots to Ayton off the dribble.  I don't know if there's enough ball for all that or how well Trae will move without having the ball in his hands (or effective he will be without being so ball dominant).  Maybe a nice problem to solve, but I am also not a coach so *shrug*  lol

One thing I can say is that it seems easier to distribute between two prolific scorers than 3.  Somebody has to take a step back and I think we're taking a step back as a team if Trae is sacrificing.  Just MHO on that...and let's not forget if we still retain JC in all this.  He's already losing lob touches to Capela and that won't change with Ayton.  He'll lose spot up opportunities to Lavine because those shots are going up and they are going DOWN.  JC will never see the ball in the mid/high post.  You can't justify that over Lavine/Trae shot creation or the lob/dump to Ayton.  In the Lavine/DA scenario, JC's now a rather pointless 4th option.

All of this leads me to think the chemistry would be better if our 1/2/3 was Trae, Zach, JC...with Capela vs. Ayton.   I think JC's is the perfect 3rd option and would be more valuable holding down the defensive front with Hunter & Cap.

(¹Side note, Gobert is a good passing big man and would shine in this scenario...go watch him.)

[sturt]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

all the time.  

Hmmmm... it happens, but not actually all that frequently.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

Cutting Gallo ($15 M) and letting other free agents walk will generate some funds. Also, may have to go into luxury tax this year. I know it still may not be what others can offer, but we may have a better team around the potential free agent that might make him choose us. 

No it won't. These are our guaranteed Salaries:

PG: Young (36.6)
SG: Huerter(14.5) Bogi (18)
SF: Hunter (9.8)
PF: Collins (23.5), Johnson (2.7), Gallo (5)
C - Capela (19.7), Okongwu (6.3)

TOTAL Guaranteed Salary = $136.1 million, so no available capspace to offer a FA big money.

Regarding Luxury Tax, you just can't sign a FA to get into the tax, it'll have to be by trading and/or resigning our own FAs.

[sturt]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No it won't. These are our guaranteed Salaries:

PG: Young (36.6)
SG: Huerter(14.5) Bogi (18)
SF: Hunter (9.8)
PF: Collins (23.5), Johnson (2.7), Gallo (5)
Capela (19.7), Okongwu (6.3)

TOTAL Guaranteed Salary = $136.1 million

Regarding Luxury Tax, you just can't sign a FA to get into the tax, it'll have to be by trading and/or resigning our own FAs.

*wah-wah-waaaaaaaahhhh*

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

*wah-wah-waaaaaaaahhhh*

Only Facts .

[sturt]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

Only Facts .

[macdaddy]

7 minutes ago, sturt said:

Hmmmm... it happens, but not actually all that frequently.

Just checking last offseason, very few significant free agents actually changed teams.   Markennan, Derozan and Dinwiddie all did so via SNT.   Really no one signed a big contract (that i remember) last year outright into cap space. 

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, Wretch said:

This is how I feel about Ayton.  I like him, but his fit depends on the other moves we make this offseason.  If we luck up and land Lavine, I'm a little weary of replacing a proven Capela for the max salaried Ayton.  Not that he can't be a great defender or that he isn't already a good defender, but there are questions and he is young.  Whereas we have already seen Clint take us to the ECF's...

With a pure shooter/penetrator on the wing, Capela's offensive shortcomings are much less of an issue.  Surely the lane will open up for DA, but I also question your last point if we add another prolific scorer.  How much usage could we expect from him with a Trae/Zach backcourt?  Would we see some of the same chemistry issues Phoenix saw this year? 

Not saying I'm 100% against an Ayton SnT, but I'd put a priority on defense and depth if we got Lavine.

My thoughts exactly.

I would be more inclined to believe that the package is Gobert/Lavine  if we had to move Clint...  Unfortunately, i don't think we have to move Clint.   I like Clint.   I would say Clint is the best rim running big in the game.  I think Him/OO makes a great combo at C... and I would use our draft pick to get either Mark Williams or Duren to round out the Center rotation. 

Financially and logistically, I like this lineup:

• Trae/Delon/Shariff
• Lavine/Kev
• Hunter/SF
• JC/JJ
• Clint/OO/Williams. 

Now, there's a lot of things we need to take care of... one of which is who is backing up Hunter.  I guess, Knox is on the list somewhere with a minimum.  However, I would petition that we take a look at Otto Porter also. 

• Trae/Delon/Shariff
• Lavine/Kev
• Hunter/Porter/Knox
• JC/JJ
• Clint/OO/Williams. 

This team can be very good IMHO...

[sturt]

17 minutes ago, Wretch said:

In a magical world where we got both Ayton and Lavine....

Stop right there.

 

I want to see the rest of the roster please. What's left of it? What's even practical to expect to be left of it?

 

We're not exactly talking about adding LeBron and Bosh assets to a Wade asset here.

 

And, so, related...  key question that I'm not sure has been addressed (... though it may have... )

 

Does a player lose interest in coming to ATL if he knows the roster will be depleted in order for him to come?

[Wretch]

10 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No it won't. These are our guaranteed Salaries:

PG: Young (36.6)
SG: Huerter(14.5) Bogi (18)
SF: Hunter (9.8)
PF: Collins (23.5), Johnson (2.7), Gallo (5)
C - Capela (19.7), Okongwu (6.3)

TOTAL Guaranteed Salary = $136.1 million, so no available capspace to offer a FA big money.

Regarding Luxury Tax, you just can't sign a FA to get into the tax, it'll have to be by trading and/or resigning our own FAs.

And while I'm running my mouth and being too lazy to do the math that you guys seems to love so much....lol In the ideal offseason, is it even possible to fit Lavine/Ayton's salaries without moving JC's?  Same for Gobert should we land him instead of Ayton.

[sturt]

4 minutes ago, Wretch said:

And while I'm running my mouth and being too lazy to do the math that you guys seems to love so much....lol In the ideal offseason, is it even possible to fit Lavine/Ayton's salaries without moving JC's?  Same for Gobert should we land him instead of Ayton.

Suggest using spotrac's numbers... and/or work from this...

 

 

EDIT: In the last half-day, Trae's made himself some money... needs adjusted to $36,600,000.

[Wretch]

9 minutes ago, sturt said:

Stop right there.

 

I want to see the rest of the roster please. What's left of it? What's even practical to expect to be left of it?

 

We're not exactly talking about adding LeBron and Bosh assets to a Wade asset here.

 

And, so, related...  key question that I'm not sure has been addressed (... though it may have... )

 

Does a player lose interest in coming to ATL if he knows the roster will be depleted in order for him to come?

Indeed....

Which also adds weight to defense and depth after acquiring just one of those guys.  I'd assume we'd be left with a shell of this team, and I'd rather err on the side of defense after adding offense.  Chicago has been riding Zach on a bargain of a deal, which is another reason why I was so interested in him the last couple of seasons.

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No it won't. These are our guaranteed Salaries:

PG: Young (36.6)
SG: Huerter(14.5) Bogi (18)
SF: Hunter (9.8)
PF: Collins (23.5), Johnson (2.7), Gallo (5)
C - Capela (19.7), Okongwu (6.3)

TOTAL Guaranteed Salary = $136.1 million, so no available capspace to offer a FA big money.

Regarding Luxury Tax, you just can't sign a FA to get into the tax, it'll have to be by trading and/or resigning our own FAs.

I was preaching about the bolded last year and its effect.  It just wasn't noticeable until Trae/Collins/Huerter got theirs.

Probably a good time to explain the whole Luxury Tax Tiering.

The Salary Cap is 122 million. This is the point where trading rules start kicking in hard. The Luxury tax starts kicking in at $149 million.  All of the following numbers are for any salary over $149 million. The taxed amount is in salary tiers. The following is for non-repeating consecutive years offenders.

For the first $5 million over the threshold you are, you pay 1.5x that dollar amount in tax.  Going 5 million into the tax isn't a big deal.

The next $5 mil is at 1.75.

the next $5 mil is at 2.5x the amount. Its starting to get serious.

The next 5 at 3.2g.

The next at 3.75

The next at 4.25

Every 5 mil after, add another .5% to the tier.

 

So $5 million over the threshold, you pay a $7.5 million tax.

$15 million over, its not 3x 7.5 million but almost 4x.

 

Now the problem here is what if you go into the LT 2 consecutive years.  It doesn't matter if you were $3 in one year and $300 million into it the next....the same rules apply to all tiers.  Add .75% to all tiers above. It gets pricey.  Meaning a team already $30 million into the LT and adding $3 million more in salary on a repeat offender status will pay a tax of $17,250,000 just to add $3 million in salary.

The estimates on SPOTRAC.COM had the Hawks $2,328,520 below the LT in 21-22.  This is widely what handcuffed us from making moves at the deadline.  We knew with the upcoming salary situation we would be into the LT in 22-23 and probably $11 million into the LT.  This upcoming season alone, going into the LT in 21-22 would have cost us close to an additional $100,000 on top of the normal tax in 22-23. 

 

This is why you'll see the Hawks make some cheaper vet moves this offseason (like possibly retaining Knox, Mays on the cheap). His vet minimum is a pretty cheap contract or having teams throw in their 2nd round picks into trades to provide a very cheap 15th man.

 

When discussing deals like Gobert, Ayton, Simmons, Levine, etc....it isn't just about acquiring those players.  It isn't Gobert > Clint or Simmons > Huerter.  The Hawks need to ensure they are sending out enough contract to = the incoming player plus the cheap vet taking one of the outgoing players' spots.  You can't think of these deals as Gobert for Clint/Hunter because a vet bought out by his club is also coming here in that scenario for 2-5 million. Its Gobert + mystery vet chasing a ring.  If you upgrade Clint with Gobert/Ayton and bring in another star, pushing Huerter to the bench, you are telling the league you're serious about contending. Those older vets will try to latch on. We're going into the LT this year. The question is how much and for how many years. The ring chasing vets will only latch on.

 

One tiny criticism on the Gallo $5 mil number.  There is a good chance we stretch that to 3 years, taking a $1.67 mil hit each year to lower the total LT hit the next 3 years.  Stretching it could lower the tier we end up in.

 

One additional thought for you aspiring Capologists. We hold a few trade exceptions that will push down our numbers when exercised. Figure those in.

 

 

 

 

 

[kg01]

16 minutes ago, Wretch said:

I image we'd double down on the PnR.  We KILLED the Eastern Conference with it last year.  Flat out destroyed NY with it.  We fought and won a grueling series with a highly rated defensive Philly team and followed that up by demoralizing Milwaukee before Trae went down.  How quickly people have forgotten Giannis desperately trying to rally his team.  We were killing them with the PNR...because Bogi was hitting timely shots.

Teams were terrified of the pick and roll and daring us with drop coverage, especially Milwaukee.  We, particularly Bogi, hit some huge shots.  They were still missing a ton which made our run more interesting than it had to be.  I'll not soon forget that run.  Neither will the Eastern Conference.  Teams made adjustments and committed to shutting down Trae Young and the penetration.  They did the same thing they did to LeBron - they took away the lane and said, "Shoot it if you can."  We couldn't.

In a magical world where we got both Ayton and Lavine....

Trae is going to lead the charge, as he should.  Defense collapses, Trae dumps the ball off the penetration and Ayton is a whole other animal compared to Capela.  He's load down there and he will go to work. The double doesn't come or gets there late, Ayton eats all day.  The double comes on time...we move the ball¹, Zach is spotting up for those wide open 3's that no other Hawk can seem to hit right now.  If they manage to cover that shooter, and if Trae is moving without the ball, it's an automatic bucket.  

Works almost the same with Zach working the penetration, but without the same court vision Trae has.  So he's penetrating to score and listening to Chicago fans, he seems to like creating/taking difficult shots so take that FWIW.  I think if Zach is hot, and he should get plenty of opportunity in this scenario to shoot, either he's taking shots from Ayton off the penetration (and scoring at a high clip) or he's taking shots from Ayton who is passing out of the post.  I don't know if Ayton's going to pass out, because he's gifted around the basket.  I don't know if Zach will come here just to give up shots to Ayton off the dribble.  I don't know if there's enough ball for all that or how well Trae will move without having the ball in his hands (or effective he will be without being so ball dominant).  Maybe a nice problem to solve, but I am also not a coach so *shrug*  lol

One thing I can say is that it seems easier to distribute between two prolific scorers than 3.  Somebody has to take a step back and I think we're taking a step back as a team if Trae is sacrificing.  Just MHO on that...and let's not forget if we still retain JC in all this.  He's already losing lob touches to Capela and that won't change with Ayton.  He'll lose spot up opportunities to Lavine because those shots are going up and they are going DOWN.  JC will never see the ball in the mid/high post.  You can't justify that over Lavine/Trae shot creation or the lob/dump to Ayton.  In the Lavine/DA scenario, JC's now a rather pointless 4th option.

All of this leads me to think the chemistry would be better if our 1/2/3 was Trae, Zach, JC...with Capela vs. Ayton.   I think JC's is the perfect 3rd option and would be more valuable holding down the defensive front with Hunter & Cap.

(¹Side note, Gobert is a good passing big man and would shine in this scenario...go watch him.)

Mm-hmm, mmhmm, all that.

But, and I have to be the one to say it (again), you know the reality is ol' Zack is just using us as leverage to get the big deal from CHI right?  That's par for the course, sadly.

[marco102]

2 hours ago, Wretch said:

I image we'd double down on the PnR.  We KILLED the Eastern Conference with it last year.  Flat out destroyed NY with it.  We fought and won a grueling series with a highly rated defensive Philly team and followed that up by demoralizing Milwaukee before Trae went down.  How quickly people have forgotten Giannis desperately trying to rally his team.  We were killing them with the PNR...because Bogi was hitting timely shots.

Teams were terrified of the pick and roll and daring us with drop coverage, especially Milwaukee.  We, particularly Bogi, hit some huge shots.  They were still missing a ton which made our run more interesting than it had to be.  I'll not soon forget that run.  Neither will the Eastern Conference.  Teams made adjustments and committed to shutting down Trae Young and the penetration.  They did the same thing they did to LeBron - they took away the lane and said, "Shoot it if you can."  We couldn't.

In a magical world where we got both Ayton and Lavine....

Trae is going to lead the charge, as he should.  Defense collapses, Trae dumps the ball off the penetration and Ayton is a whole other animal compared to Capela.  He's load down there and he will go to work. The double doesn't come or gets there late, Ayton eats all day.  The double comes on time...we move the ball¹, Zach is spotting up for those wide open 3's that no other Hawk can seem to hit right now.  If they manage to cover that shooter, and if Trae is moving without the ball, it's an automatic bucket.  

Works almost the same with Zach working the penetration, but without the same court vision Trae has.  So he's penetrating to score and listening to Chicago fans, he seems to like creating/taking difficult shots so take that FWIW.  I think if Zach is hot, and he should get plenty of opportunity in this scenario to shoot, either he's taking shots from Ayton off the penetration (and scoring at a high clip) or he's taking shots from Ayton who is passing out of the post.  I don't know if Ayton's going to pass out, because he's gifted around the basket.  I don't know if Zach will come here just to give up shots to Ayton off the dribble.  I don't know if there's enough ball for all that or how well Trae will move without having the ball in his hands (or effective he will be without being so ball dominant).  Maybe a nice problem to solve, but I am also not a coach so *shrug*  lol

One thing I can say is that it seems easier to distribute between two prolific scorers than 3.  Somebody has to take a step back and I think we're taking a step back as a team if Trae is sacrificing.  Just MHO on that...and let's not forget if we still retain JC in all this.  He's already losing lob touches to Capela and that won't change with Ayton.  He'll lose spot up opportunities to Lavine because those shots are going up and they are going DOWN.  JC will never see the ball in the mid/high post.  You can't justify that over Lavine/Trae shot creation or the lob/dump to Ayton.  In the Lavine/DA scenario, JC's now a rather pointless 4th option.

All of this leads me to think the chemistry would be better if our 1/2/3 was Trae, Zach, JC...with Capela vs. Ayton.   I think JC's is the perfect 3rd option and would be more valuable holding down the defensive front with Hunter & Cap.

(¹Side note, Gobert is a good passing big man and would shine in this scenario...go watch him.)

Ayton and John have both shown they will sacrifice for the greater good if they are compensated.  Ayton doesn't really care about his touches his point with PHX was he sacrificed touches for the greater good of team success and wants the max.  Hawks would be happy to give it to him.  Ayton is a good passer too. 

I don't think having both Ayton and JC would be terrible.  They are interchangeable on offense so when one isn't out there the other can run the same plays. 

Lavine has become a more willing passer and just doesn't take difficult shots (clarity, he takes difficult shots but is a willing passer instead of taking some of those difficult shots).  I believe he'd move the ball if we can change our offensive system.

Trae should be the number 1 option no questions there. 

Gobert is a good passer.  Again, just don't like his price tag. 

Edited May 25, 2022 by marco102

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Ayton and John have both shown they will sacrifice for the greater good if they are compensated.  Ayton doesn't really care about his touches his point with PHX was he sacrificed touches for the greater good of team success and wants the max.  Hawks would be happy to give it to him.  Ayton is a good passer too. 

I don't think having both Ayton and JC would be terrible.  They are interchangeable on offense so when one isn't out there the other can run the same plays. 

Lavine has become a more willing passer and just doesn't take difficult shots.  I believe he'd move the ball if we can change our offensive system.

Trae should be the number 1 option no questions there. 

Gobert is a good passer.  Again, just don't like his price tag. 

Both Ayton and Gobert fit better with JC. Both are big men who can step out and hit a J. They are able to draw the center out which helps JC.  When Clint would float to the 3 PT line to help JC, the opposing center would just stay 1 foot in the lane and show to JC as soon as he got the ball in the post.  A center who can hit a 15 footer pulls the opposing center in a half circle around the lane giving JC more offensive room.

Same song, different chorus, it opens up rebounding opportunities for everyone getting the opposing center away from the basket where he has to dive in and box out in a very short period of time as opposed to being able to set up shot immediately after the shot goes up.

[JayBirdHawk]

@Diesel

 

 

 

[thecampster]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@Diesel

 

 

 

Woah....could the Nets send out Irving for a player and replace him with Simmons at the point?

[thecampster]

Or better yet he may opt out?

[marco102]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

Woah....could the Nets send out Irving for a player and replace him with Simmons at the point?

Shiiiiit....bring him home TS.