The cobbled together, stuff we held on to during the playoffs mega super rumor and team direction thread.

[h4wkfan]

52 minutes ago, thecampster said:

@h4wkfan lets play a little salary connect 4.

Besides Trae and assuming Gallo is waived, the top 3 salaries on the team are:  JC-$23.5 mil, Clint-$19.7 mil (cap purposes), BB-$18 mil. When you include Gallo's salary - $1.67 million (stretched cap impact), that's another $19.78 mil in a team currently at $152.7 million in salary. Those salaries add up to $80.98 million or Gobert + 1x $35 million salary + $7 million.  So go find me a top 5 2-guard at $35 million, slip JJ into the 4 or backup 4 and fill in some slots with the other $7 million in add on pieces.  That's how I see it. I see a big pot of money absorbed by 4 players, 1 of which won't be on the team next year and those salaries take up the starting/backup 4 spots, the starting center spot, backup 2 guard spot.  

I see Trae, Hunter in the starting lineup and say what can put around them.  JJ = no salary impact to the $80.98 mil.  He's already on the roster.  So now I say...can I get another C, PF, SG for $80.98 mil and would they be a better fit around Trae?  Of all the salaries above, JC's contributes the most, Gallo the second most and we have a good player waiting to take one of those slots. You got 16/8 from Collins last year.  JJ gave you 22.5/11.1/4.6 in the g-league last year. I have to believe his drop off from Collins in the NBA won't be too far. Especially at 13% the salary.

Fair points. And this is why Schlenk gets paid the big bucks. 

The construction of a team - within a salary cap - is so complicated. And making the potential call on if JJ is ready to replace JC (assuming upgrades elsewhere) is a call I wouldn’t make this year (I think he should take the Gallo role for a season). It’ll be fun to see what moves are made. And inevitably - people will be unhappy. 

[Spud2nique]

Morning @marco102

[Guest]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I wouldn't go as high as $26 with the team taking back some salary...I'd top it at $21 million straight salary dump.

[JayBirdHawk]

44 minutes ago, HawksNWaffles said:

 

@Spud2nique yes my machinations laid undetected until now mwhahaha

 

@sturt.... haven't been able hear my wife since .... But without saying too much,( I can't and I don't like twitter poachers) that and the fact that alot of you have heard this a bunch already, but there is alot more smoke to the JC trade rumors than I thought myself.  where I work, we are kind of..... very associated with the Hawks, but that's all I can say...or more accurately all that I have heard.  

Thanks for the information of new non-information. 

[HawksNWaffles]

9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Thanks for the information of new non-information. 

anytime buddy

 

[Dean Walker]

And we’re off!

[JayBirdHawk]

@thecampster Denver kicks off the pre end of season trades. 

OKC gets a 2027 1st for $8 mil in salary and pick #30.

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

@thecampster ... all well taken... we're all allowed to have our varying amateur scout/coach/GM opinions on talent level.

I suppose the tectonic principles I'm trying to express are, in thinking about potential trades...

(1) It does make a major difference if the receiving team is forced to guarantee Gallo's full $21.5m salary, as opposed to taking on... and eating by virtue of cutting him... his pre-6/29 salary of $5m or $11m or even $15m... and

(2) It makes a major difference what is the current player acquisition posture of the team.... vis-a-vis, OKC is one that especially sticks out both because Presti has publicly indicated he's in for one more year of a tank posture, and he has added incentive to consider a deal as Jay imagined b/c he's already got a full roster today (15 under contract), he's got 4 draft picks today (sure, he might end up with just 2 or 3 after all is said and done... but then... ), and also he's got these players who are living on the payroll cliff, ie, expiring contracts that he has to assess whether he's committed to keeping, and if not, how he can convert those expiring assets into something of more enduring value.... and... finally...

(3) If Presti determines--and he very well might (based, not on my assessment, but on those of OKC bloggers/beat writers whose content is widely accessible online)--that Dort, Williams and/or Roby are not in his long-term plans, and for that matter, I think we already know that none of Micic, Muscala nor Favors are... then the puzzle pieces are on the table that could be put together to make a Gallo deal... one that, as I pointed out, can be tailor-made to fit which puzzle pieces at what amount of trade exception, and importantly, with OKC actually netting a savings on their payroll on the other end of 6/29.

Correct me where I'm wrong (???).

 

They're worth way more than Gallo as a $10 million overpay and 1 pick though.  He can want to move them all he wants but there are places more eager for them than we are.

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, h4wkfan said:

Fair points. And this is why Schlenk gets paid the big bucks. 

The construction of a team - within a salary cap - is so complicated. And making the potential call on if JJ is ready to replace JC (assuming upgrades elsewhere) is a call I wouldn’t make this year (I think he should take the Gallo role for a season). It’ll be fun to see what moves are made. And inevitably - people will be unhappy. 

I'd play him next to Gobert to start the season without pause. I would not play him next to Ayton, Capela to start the season unless we were rebuilding.  His defensive shortcomings are in PnR, PnP, switching situations. I'd wager he's better 1v1 defensively than Collins right now. Its the team aspect of defense where he is woefully behind.  Gobert can help cover for that.  Capela is not good enough, Ayton is too lazy to cover for teammates like that. He's more volatile.  Gobert is more dedicated to his craft, longer and could cover those deficiencies.  My guess is over 40 games JJ would improve dramatically. Its a matter of time with him, not ability. He's proven he has the BBIQ to develop in other areas. This one is just stuff he's never encountered in amateur play. He's already much better than he was when he came in. Most of it is now timing and recognition with can only be learned through repetition.

[marco102]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

Morning @marco102

Morning @Spud2nique.  Are you missing me as much as I miss you? 

[terrell]

7 hours ago, Diesel said:

You still will need a secondary ball handler.  Someone who can get us into different sets that will allow Trae to play off ball.

Also..

Keep OO for what?  The reality is, if you bring in Ayton,  you've just made your #6 pick overall into a bench player for the rest of his time here.  He's not a PF... and he's not going to want to stay here if there's no possibility of starting at some point.

Yeah backup center at #6 overall is ridiculous... I agree..

[JayBirdHawk]

5 minutes ago, terrell said:

Yeah backup center at #6 overall is ridiculous... I agree..

Marcus Smart was a #6 pick that was a backup his first 4 years in the league. Just saying.

Ideally, you want your high draft picks to start but it doesn't have to be immediately.

[thecampster]

16 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@thecampster Denver kicks off the pre end of season trades. 

OKC gets a 2027 1st for $8 mil in salary and pick #30.

What happened to him?  He used to be serviceable?

[terrell]

21 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@thecampster Denver kicks off the pre end of season trades. 

OKC gets a 2027 1st for $8 mil in salary and pick #30.

Presti cant keep all of those picks.. lol. I think #34 could be had too.. Possibly # 12...

 

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

Me too. Anyone else like me, you got your vax last year, and you've had tinnitus ever since... ???

I got dental implants this year and my tinnitus has been gone ever since. Lost 9 lbs since.  Getting the last booster later this month. So probably don't want to draw a straight line correlation.

 

[terrell]

14 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Marcus Smart was a #6 pick that was a backup his first 4 years in the league. Just saying.

Ideally, you want your high draft picks to start but it doesn't have to be immediately.

OO would be a backup center for at least 5 more years if we get Ayton... Thats 8 years.. I see what youre saying.. Just saying.. lol

Edited June 13, 2022 by terrell

[Bigjmw]

If OO comes back with a mid range Shot, could he slide in at PF? JJ could get the backup minutes he needs in the 2nd unit.

Trade JC for Hart and 7

Trade Capella/2023 CHA 1st for Ayton

Trade #7 to OKC for #12 and the rights to Micic

Trade Bogdon/Hunter/2023 1st for Lavine

Trae/Micic

Lavine/Huerter

Hart/Knox/(Jovic#12)

OO/JJ/Jovic

Ayton/OO/(Duren #16)

 

 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

They're worth way more than Gallo as a $10 million overpay and 1 pick though.  He can want to move them all he wants but there are places more eager for them than we are.

Okay, but that's a different question of course... all I was asking is if the premises were sound.

The marketplace is the marketplace. All of us are guessing at that. Some have better insight than others, but then, how many times in your life have you seen an NBA trade go down, and the instant reaction was, "Wow, how did they trade this for that???"... "Wow, how did they justify spending that much ... or that little?... "Wow, they sure did draft this guy early... or late?" (Was just thinking this morning about Josh Primo's stunning-to-most early 1st round pick, and otoh, Sharife Cooper's late 2nd round pick.)

A lot, right?

And that's because how any one GM gives weight to any given aspect can be very different than others, and it takes just that one GM to set off a chain reaction of other deals as everyone works around what conventionally wasn't anticipated.

We can't know what we can't know. We can suspect. That's it. So,

I'll listen to anyone's opinion, but at the end of the day, it's more interesting than it is compelling... ie, short of something like Jay offered today citing her deduction based off the Prince/Crabbe deal... and/but even then, every trade is a culmination of some unique factors, by definition... 30 teams are not all in the same posture at any given time, but rather at varying degrees of posture, and each with their own assessment of what they most need and where they're most solid... and... their own assessment of individual talent and the price they'd be willing to pay for X, Y, or Z.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@thecampster Denver kicks off the pre end of season trades. 

OKC gets a 2027 1st for $8 mil in salary and pick #30.

Still have capspace to take Gallo 

 

 

[thecampster]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Still have capspace to take Gallo 

 

 

Okay, outside the box thinking here.  Whether or not OKC spends the money on Gallo or not, for the purposes of financial calculation to end the season, they're short of the 90% required by the league.  For background, to keep teams from not paying players, being cheap, the NBA requires teams to spend 90% of the salary cap.

"

Teams with a team salary below the minimum are surcharged for their shortfall, with the money distributed among the players on that team.

Amounts paid as buyouts to international teams (see question number 77) do not count toward the minimum team payroll." 

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap11.htm

 

So with 23.4 million remaining, Cap of 112.4, that leaves OKC with a $12.16 million shortfall that they will have to pay.  Stay with me here.

 

The calculations are based on players remaining on your roster at the end of the season and not the total amount you paid in salaries.  So theoretically since they would have to pay a $12.16 million regardless, OKC could trade for $12.16 million in Salary (absorb Gallo and send back waste) and save themselves from having to pay the difference under 90%.  I'm trusting the tweet and haven't run the exact math but yah, there you are. Taking on Gallo's salary for next year and then flipping him as soon as he's eligible could save them real money this year plus gain them another draft asset. I need to ruminate on this.