The cobbled together, stuff we held on to during the playoffs mega super rumor and team direction thread.

[marco102]

18 minutes ago, warcore said:

Gallo/Bogi/16/picks for Simmons?

I think you have to send them JC to do the Simmons trade.

[Sothron]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Trade JC for Ayton and that's crazy talent.

Trae

Kevin

Hunter

Ben

Ayton

That would be a pretty fun team to watch. 

[warcore]

Just now, marco102 said:

I think you have to send them JC to do the Simmons trade.

I agree with you... but I won't. If Ben is doing his "I'm not right yet" thing then we should be low-balling. He's tanking his own value. Possibly on purpose???

[bleachkit]

15 minutes ago, warcore said:

I agree with you... but I won't. If Ben is doing his "I'm not right yet" thing then we should be low-balling. He's tanking his own value. Possibly on purpose???

It's not entirely clear he wants to play basketball. In theory, he is a great fit with us. But, there are some major question marks there. 

[JTB]

I thought Ben was out of the picture and that Nets already said publicly they aren’t shopping him

[warcore]

45 minutes ago, JTB said:

I thought Ben was out of the picture and that Nets already said publicly they aren’t shopping him

Because that's the sensible thing to say to make teams think you value any given player. 

[NBASupes]

8 hours ago, JTB said:

I thought Ben was out of the picture and that Nets already said publicly they aren’t shopping him

He is from what I've heard. Even in that article it says they want to keep the big 3 together.

[terrell]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

He is from what I've heard. Even in that article it says they want to keep the big 3 together.

Good...

[Watchman]

Head to Head: Clint Capela vs. Rudy Gobert | Stathead.com

Head to Head: Clint Capela vs. Deandre Ayton | Stathead.com

Interesting observations:  Head to head, Capela is approximately equal to Gobert, and outplays Ayton.  Why do we want to grossly overpay for either of these guys?

 

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, Watchman said:

Head to Head: Clint Capela vs. Rudy Gobert | Stathead.com

Head to Head: Clint Capela vs. Deandre Ayton | Stathead.com

Interesting observations:  Head to head, Capela is approximately equal to Gobert, and outplays Ayton.  Why do we want to grossly overpay for either of these guys?

 

Gobert has whooped him in Atlanta. https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/rudy-gobert-vs.-clint-capela

Capela has gotten better of Ayton in all of his matchups. 

[thecampster]

17 minutes ago, Watchman said:

Head to Head: Clint Capela vs. Rudy Gobert | Stathead.com

Head to Head: Clint Capela vs. Deandre Ayton | Stathead.com

Interesting observations:  Head to head, Capela is approximately equal to Gobert, and outplays Ayton.  Why do we want to grossly overpay for either of these guys?

 

Gobert is infinitely greater than his personal "stats". 

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/utah-jazz-record-without-rudy-gobert-career#:~:text=The Utah Jazz have a,without Rudy Gobert all-time.

 The Utah Jazz have a record of 45-62 without Rudy Gobert all-time.  

 

 

The Jazz's defensive rating without Gobert this season is 115.3, but with him, their rating is 108.6. An almost 7-point drop without him. 

Consider this from Reddit:

 

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by thecampster

[NBASupes]

Capela been blessed to be in good situations his entire career. Atlanta and Houston with Harden plus CP3 is legit. Three potential HOFers. 

[thecampster]

Let me give you this stat. 

PER at C - Gobert

2017-18 - Gobert 24.4 ,  Opp 18.9 .  +5.5 PER

2018-19 - Gobert 30.2, Opp 19.8.  + 10.5 PER

2019-20 - Gobert 26.5, Opp 20.2 + 6.2 PER

2020-21 - Gobert 29.6, Opp 16.9. +12.7 PER

2021-22 - Gobert 31.1, Opp 19.4. +11.7 PER

Avg Gobert  28.32, Opp 19.04.  +9.28

 

PER @ C - Capela

2017-18 - Capela 28.8 ,  Opp 23.3 .  +5.5 PER

2018-19 - Capela 29.2, Opp 20.4.  + 8.8 PER

2019-20 - Capela 24.5, Opp 19.2 + 5.3 PER

2020-21 - Capela 30.1, Opp 20.8. +9.3 PER

2021-22 - Capela 26.2, Opp 22.2. +4 PER

Avg Capela - 27.76, Opp 21.18. +6.58

 

Gobert vs Capela +2.7 Gobert.

 

Okay so I know this is PER but PER has some advantages. It can show dominance especially over long periods and remember Gobert's numbers are a little skewed by that 2017 season.  PER over time shows that Gobert is the better individual player vs other centers (one of our weaknesses).  But his "impact" is shown in the previous post. Defensively the Jazz were 14 ppg worse over a very short sample.

 

If we use the entire last season's on vs off.

Gobert on court the Jazz were 1 point better offensively per 48 minutes than off. But they were 7 points better per 48 defensively with him on the floor.

With Capela on the floor, the Hawks were 4.5 pts per 48 better offensively but only 0.7 points worse defensively.  The impact of Gobert defensively is not something that shows up in stats.

 

Hawks with Capela off the floor defensively 115.4. Utah with Gobert off the floor defensively, 115.5.  These are very similar defensive squads. Only a .1 point difference

Hawks with Capela on the floor defensively 116.1.  Utah with Gobert on the floor defensively, 108.5.  A 7.6 point difference.

 

Think of how many games the Hawks lost in the last 5 minutes last year. Think of how many games were decided by 7 points or less. That's why you pay him.  So you can challenge for a Number 1 seed (10 wins, 1 of them vs the Heat and the Hawks are the 1 seed), get an easy road, sweep a playoff series, get rest and be healthier with each series. That's why he's worth it.  The Hawks lost 14 games last year by 8 or less points. If Gobert is the difference in 11 of them, you are the #1 seed. Yes his defensive worth is that much, even vs Capela.

Edited June 8, 2022 by thecampster

[terrell]

33 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Let me give you this stat. 

PER at C - Gobert

2017-18 - Gobert 24.4 ,  Opp 18.9 .  +5.5 PER

2018-19 - Gobert 30.2, Opp 19.8.  + 10.5 PER

2019-20 - Gobert 26.5, Opp 20.2 + 6.2 PER

2020-21 - Gobert 29.6, Opp 16.9. +12.7 PER

2021-22 - Gobert 31.1, Opp 19.4. +11.7 PER

Avg Gobert  28.32, Opp 19.04.  +9.28

 

PER @ C - Capela

2017-18 - Capela 28.8 ,  Opp 23.3 .  +5.5 PER

2018-19 - Capela 29.2, Opp 20.4.  + 8.8 PER

2019-20 - Capela 24.5, Opp 19.2 + 5.3 PER

2020-21 - Capela 30.1, Opp 20.8. +9.3 PER

2021-22 - Capela 26.2, Opp 22.2. +4 PER

Avg Capela - 27.76, Opp 21.18. +6.58

 

Gobert vs Capela +2.7 Gobert.

 

Okay so I know this is PER but PER has some advantages. It can show dominance especially over long periods and remember Gobert's numbers are a little skewed by that 2017 season.  PER over time shows that Gobert is the better individual player vs other centers (one of our weaknesses).  But his "impact" is shown in the previous post. Defensively the Jazz were 14 ppg worse over a very short sample.

 

If we use the entire last season's on vs off.

Gobert on court the Jazz were 1 point better offensively per 48 minutes than off. But they were 7 points better per 48 defensively with him on the floor.

With Capela on the floor, the Hawks were 4.5 pts per 48 better offensively but only 0.7 points worse defensively.  The impact of Gobert defensively is not something that shows up in stats.

 

Hawks with Capela off the floor defensively 115.4. Utah with Gobert off the floor defensively, 115.5.  These are very similar defensive squads. Only a .1 point difference

Hawks with Capela on the floor defensively 116.1.  Utah with Gobert on the floor defensively, 108.5.  A 7.6 point difference.

 

Think of how many games the Hawks lost in the last 5 minutes last year. Think of how many games were decided by 7 points or less. That's why you pay him.  So you can challenge for a Number 1 seed (10 wins, 1 of them vs the Heat and the Hawks are the 1 seed), get an easy road, sweep a playoff series, get rest and be healthier with each series. That's why he's worth it.  The Hawks lost 14 games last year by 8 or less points. If Gobert is the difference in 11 of them, you are the #1 seed. Yes his defensive worth is that much, even vs Capela.

Not gonna matter if we dont fix our perimeter defense.....

 

 

[marco102]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

Let me give you this stat. 

PER at C - Gobert

2017-18 - Gobert 24.4 ,  Opp 18.9 .  +5.5 PER

2018-19 - Gobert 30.2, Opp 19.8.  + 10.5 PER

2019-20 - Gobert 26.5, Opp 20.2 + 6.2 PER

2020-21 - Gobert 29.6, Opp 16.9. +12.7 PER

2021-22 - Gobert 31.1, Opp 19.4. +11.7 PER

Avg Gobert  28.32, Opp 19.04.  +9.28

 

PER @ C - Capela

2017-18 - Capela 28.8 ,  Opp 23.3 .  +5.5 PER

2018-19 - Capela 29.2, Opp 20.4.  + 8.8 PER

2019-20 - Capela 24.5, Opp 19.2 + 5.3 PER

2020-21 - Capela 30.1, Opp 20.8. +9.3 PER

2021-22 - Capela 26.2, Opp 22.2. +4 PER

Avg Capela - 27.76, Opp 21.18. +6.58

 

Gobert vs Capela +2.7 Gobert.

 

Okay so I know this is PER but PER has some advantages. It can show dominance especially over long periods and remember Gobert's numbers are a little skewed by that 2017 season.  PER over time shows that Gobert is the better individual player vs other centers (one of our weaknesses).  But his "impact" is shown in the previous post. Defensively the Jazz were 14 ppg worse over a very short sample.

 

If we use the entire last season's on vs off.

Gobert on court the Jazz were 1 point better offensively per 48 minutes than off. But they were 7 points better per 48 defensively with him on the floor.

With Capela on the floor, the Hawks were 4.5 pts per 48 better offensively but only 0.7 points worse defensively.  The impact of Gobert defensively is not something that shows up in stats.

 

Hawks with Capela off the floor defensively 115.4. Utah with Gobert off the floor defensively, 115.5.  These are very similar defensive squads. Only a .1 point difference

Hawks with Capela on the floor defensively 116.1.  Utah with Gobert on the floor defensively, 108.5.  A 7.6 point difference.

 

Think of how many games the Hawks lost in the last 5 minutes last year. Think of how many games were decided by 7 points or less. That's why you pay him.  So you can challenge for a Number 1 seed (10 wins, 1 of them vs the Heat and the Hawks are the 1 seed), get an easy road, sweep a playoff series, get rest and be healthier with each series. That's why he's worth it.  The Hawks lost 14 games last year by 8 or less points. If Gobert is the difference in 11 of them, you are the #1 seed. Yes his defensive worth is that much, even vs Capela.

I'd rather keep Capela and upgrade that porous wing defense that caused all those blown leads. 

Gobert is a clear upgrade over Capela and Ayton currently.  The issue is he's 30+ and how long before he starts to decline? 

That's why I'm a proponent of Ayton.  He might be a slight down grade in short term defensively, but I'm betting on his continued improvement. 

From Hollingers free agency article,

https://theathletic.com/3351204/2022/06/08/top-25-nba-free-agency-2022/

Quote

Tier II: The Not-Quite-Max Guys

This is where free agency really starts: The three young players from the 2018 draft who between them have not made a single All-Star Game but could combine to make several in the near future. I’m not sure any of the three are worth the full max, but all have BORD$ values close enough to the “low” max ($30.5 million) to make it an interesting debate. Additionally, at least one of the three appears to be much more gettable than the four All-Stars above:

5. Deandre Ayton, C, Phoenix (restricted): $31,406,061

Phoenix surprisingly didn’t extend Ayton before last season and seems reluctant to pay him the max after the Suns fizzled in the playoffs. Sign-and-trading him instead could also help the Suns skip the luxury tax, both in 2022-23 and the two seasons that follow, while the idea of getting some added size at the forward spots is much more possible if Ayton is the trade bait.

As a result, the chatter is increasing that Ayton may indeed be available, in particular, if a sign-and-trade scenario develops that lets Phoenix bring back talent. (A straight offer sheet would likely just be matched by the Suns, who could always turn around and trade Ayton later; they really have no outs if Ayton leaves uncompensated.) One note on a sign-and-trade: Phoenix can only bring back about $20 million in salary on an Ayton sign-and-trade, even if he is paid the max, because of the so-called Base-Year Compensation rule. (The CBA stopped referring to it this way, but most folks in the league still do.)

As to the question of how much he’s worth: Even in my valuation system that devalues centers pretty strongly, the numbers suggest Ayton is worth the bite of the apple. My eye test also suspects he could be a more impactful scorer someplace else, with a pretty deadly midrange game for a player of his size. Finally, Ayton will be 24 next season, so this contract should cover some of his best seasons. Going long on a deal for him could produce additional value if he keeps improving.

Pretty sure Hollinger doesn't know his system is projecting a max for Ayton...lol

 

[AtLaS]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

Gobert is infinitely greater than his personal "stats". 

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/utah-jazz-record-without-rudy-gobert-career#:~:text=The Utah Jazz have a,without Rudy Gobert all-time.

 The Utah Jazz have a record of 45-62 without Rudy Gobert all-time.  

 

 

The Jazz's defensive rating without Gobert this season is 115.3, but with him, their rating is 108.6. An almost 7-point drop without him. 

Consider this from Reddit:

 

 

We know he will make our defense much better in the regular season.  In the playoffs he will be exposed by Max Kleiber or Terrance Mann playing the 5.  Someone like Al Horford would destroy Rudy in the playoffs.  He just won't work unless you have lockdown perimeter D which we don't have.  Pretty sure I saw a stat recently where the teams who played the Jazz in the playoffs the last few years have played BETTER offensively than their regular season averages.  That hardly ever happens since players play much harder in the playoffs, and you play the same team over and over and learn their moves.  

 

The issue is that Gobert sucks offensively so opponents can go small and place a shooter at the 5.  Gobert can't make them pay for it on the other end.  Ayton can punish small players on the other end because he can score, meaning teams can't go small as easily.  

 

I don't care about regular season improvements, what matters is the playoffs.  I don't want to turn into the Jazz.

[NBASupes]

29 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

We know he will make our defense much better in the regular season.  In the playoffs he will be exposed by Max Kleiber or Terrance Mann playing the 5.  Someone like Al Horford would destroy Rudy in the playoffs.  He just won't work unless you have lockdown perimeter D which we don't have.  Pretty sure I saw a stat recently where the teams who played the Jazz in the playoffs the last few years have played BETTER offensively than their regular season averages.  That hardly ever happens since players play much harder in the playoffs, and you play the same team over and over and learn their moves.  

 

The issue is that Gobert sucks offensively so opponents can go small and place a shooter at the 5.  Gobert can't make them pay for it on the other end.  Ayton can punish small players on the other end because he can score, meaning teams can't go small as easily.  

 

I don't care about regular season improvements, what matters is the playoffs.  I don't want to turn into the Jazz.

It's hard to get away with a small 5 v. Capela. Especially when it comes to rebounding. 

[JayBirdHawk]

Capela $19 million.

Gobert $38 million.

Gobert's better, just not twice as much particularly since it has NOT shown up in the playoffs when it matters most.

[terrell]

27 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Capela $19 million.

Gobert $38 million.

Gobert's better, just not twice as much particularly it has shown up in the playoffs when it matters most.

Id rather Trae-Ayton with 3 switchable defenders around them..

JC and Huerter to Boston for Smart and filler. (I heard Travis went after him at the deadlinbe)

Trae/Smart/Hunter/OO?/Ayton

Thats the kind of squad we need to surround Trae with.. 

Trae + a scoring BIG with Defense around them.

If we cant get Smart call OKC about SGA..

 

 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by terrell

[AHF]

33 minutes ago, terrell said:

If we cant get Smart call OKC about SGA..

If TS can get SGA and decides to trade JC and Huerter for Smart instead...