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Take the 25 game pledge (... or if not, modify it to suit your own convictions... )


sturt

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18 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Enjoy it while it lasts. It starts with love notes 📝 (ok fine IM’s) then… it’s a lot of material reading 📖… if you can’t keep up with his curriculum then he drops you..

 😢 

#truestory

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The two challenges I have with the current "wait until we are healthy and then judge" are these:

(1) I agree with this approach to measure the team's peak but disagree in part with it as a way to judge the "real" team or normal performance.  We've seen enough of these players the last 3 years to know they are injury prone.  It has been tough to find a time when all the team's top players are healthy.  At a certain point if we are going to try to measure the "real" team then we have to incorporate the injury rate into that in some meaningful way because the team is normally missing one or more starters or key reserves.

(2) Imagine our team is finally all healthy as of game 45 and we wait until then to measure the team's ability because that is the only fair and objective measure of the team - measuring it when we have key players injured is a false measure.  We then go 14-6 over a healthy stretch.  Does that represent our fair and objective measure when the teams we play against have injuries?  I think you would logically only count games against perfectly healthy teams by this logic because you are then evaluating our "true" team against "false" versions of teams when they are like Milwaukee missing Middleton or the Nets missing Simmons, etc.  When this analysis was done last year, however, it was done with the assumption that every one of the games where we were perfectly healthy was a legit measure and the resulting record was a true measure of the team despite the fact that we did it against "false" competition.

So I agree with sturt that we aren't really measuring the team's apex potential since they haven't had time to meld together healthy but disagree that we can't get some meaningful idea of who this team is by looking at what has happened so far under the assumption that we are going to have to play through injuries.  But to the extent we disregard games without all our key players healthy, we have to do the same for our opponents because what is good for the goose is good for the gander.

I'd say we get some meaningful and useful data by looking at (a) only how we do when healthy; (b) how we do in all games; (c) how we do in games against healthy opponents; etc.  The data is different but all of it illuminates truths about the team and the roster construction, imo.  None of it is illegitimate - they just are measures of different aspects of the team.

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54 minutes ago, AHF said:

meaningful

"Idea," yes.

"Meaningful idea"... which I interpret as something like conclusive enough to make some prescriptive judgments like trading key pieces...

Can't go there.

I'm just not easily persuaded that all or most the reason for enthusiasm we began the season with is turned to hogwash so rapidly, under conditions that preclude the team from developing continuity.

Iow, the standard is reasonable... but if someone wants to argue with how many games is sufficient (application) in order to get to a place where we can make a meaningful assessment, that might be the whole reason I suggested in the original post that it's to any given person's discretion if they think 25 is too much or too little. I adopted 25 years ago under Bud... and it's seemed by my (yes subjective) judgment given experience since then that that's about the right number.

To extend a bit more for clarity's sake, it's not that I think you have to have the entire rotation for 25 games with every new key player added to the mix. I felt it was reasonable to say 8 more games once BogBog returned. Then, of course, we hit this avalanche of disruption these last 10-ish games, and it's naturally going to have an effect when you have key pieces out and continuity continues to be crippled.

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1 hour ago, AHF said:

But to the extent we disregard games without all our key players healthy, we have to do the same for our opponents because what is good for the goose is good for the gander.

I'm not suggesting we disregard games.

 

Two different things, related, but not the same...

1. Results of a game.

2. Team performance.

 

So, whether we are 14-15, or 23-6 or 6-23, ought to assess performance for what we're doing well and what we're not doing well. Don't have to analyze each individual game to do that. Look at trends overall.

And the story here is, our trends are skewed... and they're skewed because the rotation...

(a) has been significantly affected from game #1 by the addition of a high-usage high-performance PG to be paired with our existing high-usage high-performance PG....  not to mention a nearly-complete overhaul of the second unit... which to me meant that we were always going to need 25 games to get into some decent realm of chemistry...

(b) lacked a significant piece for games #1-#22 that the head coach referenced as his "sixth starter" preseason... and it so happens a piece that most all of us had been pounding the table that we needed (3 pt shooting)... and...

(c) has been all over the place for much of the last 10 games (through game #29), and unfortunately, that's made the transition to adding back the sixth starter especially rocky.

 

Results of individual games? Yes, agreed, AHF... analyze the other teams as well.

But team performance assumes opponents generally play at a certain level of performance against you, and the analysis focuses on internal strengths and weaknesses. They're related, but they're different.

To illustrate, for all we know we would have won our first 22 games if we'd had that one more consistent 3 point threat who, instead, was rehabbing. Probably not, but few would disagree we would have won more with him than without him.

Instead, all we know is that we didn't have that, and the results were something significantly less than that.

To assess what this roster is capable of doing, we have to have the rotation intact, and for enough games that they have had time to develop some continuity. Again, I think we're most of the way there, but there are no shortcuts. We have to get the full rotation back and having BogBog and DJ in particular used to playing together.

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2 hours ago, kg01 said:

Uh oh, we found our diva.

"I need cucumber sammiches and crudite in my trailer by noon every day or I walk!" - squd 

Nah I’m just the assist guy and have like 16 a night but if you guys wanna bench me and roll with Ahol then that’s on you.

 🚶🏿‍♂️ 

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2 hours ago, kg01 said:

crudite

In my defense, I don’t know what that is so, who da diva 👩‍🎤 now? :saythat:
 

I don’t even like caviar but if I’m at a party I wouldn’t Christian Slater it I’ll tell you that right now! You circle ⭕️ it and eye the action, then come around. 
 

UNWRITTEN RULES!!!! ALLOTMENT!!!!!!!

 

Ahhhhhh I’m losin it. 😩 

 

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1 hour ago, sturt said:

I'm not suggesting we disregard games.

 

Two different things, related, but not the same...

1. Results of a game.

2. Team performance.

 

So, whether we are 14-15, or 23-6 or 6-23, ought to assess performance for what we're doing well and what we're not doing well. Don't have to analyze each individual game to do that. Look at trends overall.

And the story here is, our trends are skewed... and they're skewed because the rotation...

(a) has been significantly affected from game #1 by the addition of a high-usage high-performance PG to be paired with our existing high-usage high-performance PG....  not to mention a nearly-complete overhaul of the second unit... which to me meant that we were always going to need 25 games to get into some decent realm of chemistry...

(b) lacked a significant piece for games #1-#22 that the head coach referenced as his "sixth starter" preseason... and it so happens a piece that most all of us had been pounding the table that we needed (3 pt shooting)... and...

(c) has been all over the place for much of the last 10 games (through game #29), and unfortunately, that's made the transition to adding back the sixth starter especially rocky.

 

Results of individual games? Yes, agreed, AHF... analyze the other teams as well.

But team performance assumes opponents generally play at a certain level of performance against you, and the analysis focuses on internal strengths and weaknesses. They're related, but they're different.

To illustrate, for all we know we would have won our first 22 games if we'd had that one more consistent 3 point threat who, instead, was rehabbing. Probably not, but few would disagree we would have won more with him than without him.

Instead, all we know is that we didn't have that, and the results were something significantly less than that.

To assess what this roster is capable of doing, we have to have the rotation intact, and for enough games that they have had time to develop some continuity. Again, I think we're most of the way there, but there are no shortcuts. We have to get the full rotation back and having BogBog and DJ in particular used to playing together.

To assess what the roster is capable of doing when fully healthy I agree.  Will a team with Hunter, JC, Bogi, Cap, OO, etc. ever be fully healthy for a playoff run?

tenor.gif

Seriously, I don't disagree with your point that to find out how our team does when healthy they have to actually be healthy enough to acclimate to one another and play together.  But I think that may be a different question than "how good is this team" since one of the issues with this team is staying healthy. 

I also will have the same issues I had last year if you count only the games when we were healthy and then proclaim our record in those games to be the "real" team without any consideration of the health of our opponents. 

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2 hours ago, AHF said:

The two challenges I have with the current "wait until we are healthy and then judge" are these:

(1) I agree with this approach to measure the team's peak but disagree in part with it as a way to judge the "real" team or normal performance.  We've seen enough of these players the last 3 years to know they are injury prone.  It has been tough to find a time when all the team's top players are healthy.  At a certain point if we are going to try to measure the "real" team then we have to incorporate the injury rate into that in some meaningful way because the team is normally missing one or more starters or key reserves.

(2) Imagine our team is finally all healthy as of game 45 and we wait until then to measure the team's ability because that is the only fair and objective measure of the team - measuring it when we have key players injured is a false measure.  We then go 14-6 over a healthy stretch.  Does that represent our fair and objective measure when the teams we play against have injuries?  I think you would logically only count games against perfectly healthy teams by this logic because you are then evaluating our "true" team against "false" versions of teams when they are like Milwaukee missing Middleton or the Nets missing Simmons, etc.  When this analysis was done last year, however, it was done with the assumption that every one of the games where we were perfectly healthy was a legit measure and the resulting record was a true measure of the team despite the fact that we did it against "false" competition.

So I agree with sturt that we aren't really measuring the team's apex potential since they haven't had time to meld together healthy but disagree that we can't get some meaningful idea of who this team is by looking at what has happened so far under the assumption that we are going to have to play through injuries.  But to the extent we disregard games without all our key players healthy, we have to do the same for our opponents because what is good for the goose is good for the gander.

I'd say we get some meaningful and useful data by looking at (a) only how we do when healthy; (b) how we do in all games; (c) how we do in games against healthy opponents; etc.  The data is different but all of it illuminates truths about the team and the roster construction, imo.  None of it is illegitimate - they just are measures of different aspects of the team.

Back to being serious. 

You can't be serious.   Just because we know how these players look with other players doesn't mean that we know how they would look with each other if we haven't seen them play with each other?

One player can make all of the difference.  I really want to see how Dejountae plays with Bogi and Trae and JC and CC.   There are possible synergies that you are ignoring.   Not necessarily "apex potential" but how do we look playing as we were in the blueprint.    Somebody may have said that Bogi would give the spacing that we need for everybody to play their game.   Or maybe something else.  To say that we've seen enough and we haven't even seen them is casual and damning.   Would you buy a car without a test drive?

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Diesel said:

   Would you buy a car without a test drive?

 

 

Strangely enough, yes, two different times.  My 1st Volvo, a 544 with only 8000 miles on it.  Dealer was out of pocket, had the keys and didn't come in until closing time.  That was in 1960.  Traded for it without driving it.

A couple of years ago I purchased a 2007 Volvo, XC90, from a dealer near Nashville, Tenn.  I found it on car guru, purchased it and had it shipped to me.

Lucky me.  Both cars were fine and dandy!  

😇

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