2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[Hawkmoor]

12 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I can’t hear you the band is singing and I’m dancing  

[REHawksFan]

18 minutes ago, AHF said:

Let me use an analogy because there are no conflicts there.

My grandfather is a diabetic.  He eats sugar all the time and it is very unhealthy for him.  I expect once he starts working with Quin that he will eat less sugar but I'm concerned he will still eat too much sugar and that it will continue to be a problem because the core change has to come from him and not his coach.  So while I expect that he will improve, I am concerned he will keep eating more sugar than he should and not be his best self.

On the size part, I agree that this is a big deal and an improvement over DJM as far as fit as the SG (although I'm not sold he will be able to defend SGs regularly but that is a lesser concern if Jones is at the wing with him since I think Jones will end up with the tougher assignment between the 2 and the 3).

That's helpful.  I get hung up on words sometimes and when you said "he might completely change his shot selection" and also said you were concerned that he would still take too many bad shots, that didn't / doesn't jive for me.  But I get what you are saying now.  

So my next question is this...How much of the DJM / Trae lack of fit is attributable to DJM taking midrange shots, iyo?  That's the biggest similarity between the two, but I'm just not seeing it as a huge deal given Quin will want to change it and even if BI only moderately improves and is still taking 30% midrange shots, how much does that actually cause a problem with Trae?  

As I mentioned previously, the non-fit between Trae and DJM always seemed to be both wanting to be the PG on offense and neither being good enough at PG/SG on defense.  Ingram doesn't present those same issues with Trae that DJM does, imo.  

***************************************************************

Finally, just to address the PG thing with Ingram.  I originally brought this up several weeks ago because the last time BI's shot diet included midrange shots under 30% was the last year Jrue Holiday was on the Pels.  It was never about Lonzo.  He set up BI 118 times for 3 in 19-20 and 100 times in 20-21.  But in 20-21, Holiday wasn't there (he had set up 91 C/S 3s for BI the previous year).  And once Lonzo left, the shot diet went completely to hell. 

Brandon Ingram C/S 3pt FGA:

19-20 (Jrue & Lonzo): 300 FGA

20-21 (Lonzo only):  234 FGA

21-22 (Graham/ McCollum): 171 FGA

22-23 (McCollum / Alvarado):  120 FGA

23-24 (McCollum / Daniels):  157 FGA

[KB21]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Stood out to me as well.  In the BI+Jones trade, it's hard to complain about BI being a highly paid and low performing star.  We're giving up much the same thing except we're getting back the top rated wing defender in the league signed to a very nice contract.  GIving up on that so you can draft Sarr over Clingan, you have to really love Sarr or really hate Clingan.  

I'm in the camp that BI is a better fit for us and better player than his current reputation suggests.  Sarr is much more of a fantasy than reality, but there is a good reason people project him #1.  I thought Clingan was a Jakob Poeltll, but realized there was more to his game and if Snyder thinks he is the right piece I am down.  Concerned about his foot issue more than anything with his game.  

A lot of questions about if Sarr can even play center.  For all the crap Capela gets, he was our best defender and best rebounder last year by the numbers.  We're going to improve our defense by starting Okongwu and having Sarr/Bruno as backups?  Also, passing on Herb Jones to protect the potential of Sarr?  Analysts are calling the talent in this draft flat for a reason.  You guys are giving up a lot for the Sarr hype machine.  

There isn't a Sarr hype machine.  There is definitely some Brandon Ingram hype going on though, as he is nowhere near the best wing defender in the NBA nor an offensive fit with Trae.  

[REHawksFan]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

as he is nowhere near the best wing defender in the NBA

No one has has he is.  All of the best wing defender stuff is pertaining to Herb Jones which, in the proposed trade, we would get along with Ingram.  As for Ingram's defense, the most anyone has said about it as far as I've seen is that he's "average" defensively.  

And I don't see the lack of fit with Trae on offense.  

[Hawkmoor]

49 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

Giving up a potential all-star (Murray) on a great contract plus trading out of a potential superstar at #1 for a defensive role player in Jones?  And Ingram?   I LOVE Jones, but he is at best the 4th/5th best player on a championship team.  

You don't EVER give up #1 overall (even in a perceived "weak" draft) for a role player unless you think that role player wins you the championship.  

I'd consider throwing in the Sac pick, but definitely not #1 overall.  We already gave up Luka, Pau, missed on Chris Paul/Deron Williams/Brandon Roy.  Now we are going to trade the top pick for Herb?  Nah

I'm in very late on this conversation.  Though I believe in Herb as a defender he is nowhere near worth giving up the 1st pick of the draft.  If you are the Hawks you are drafting Sarr to be that defender and trying to figure out a way to move either Trae or Murray for Ingram without giving up too much.  The Hawks leverage is what New Orleans needs.  A point guard.

Edited June 7 by Hawkmoor

[KB21]

No one would use the #1 pick to draft a Herb Jones archetype.  The Hawks shouldn't include it in a deal just to get him.  In fact, Murray for Jones by itself is a one sided deal, because despite the issues the Hawks have had with the Murray and Trae combo together, Murray is still a shot creator, and that is more valuable in isolation than Herb's POA defense.  Herb isn't anywhere near a shot creator.  

[AHF]

30 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

So my next question is this...How much of the DJM / Trae lack of fit is attributable to DJM taking midrange shots, iyo?  That's the biggest similarity between the two, but I'm just not seeing it as a huge deal given Quin will want to change it and even if BI only moderately improves and is still taking 30% midrange shots, how much does that actually cause a problem with Trae?  

As I mentioned previously, the non-fit between Trae and DJM always seemed to be both wanting to be the PG on offense and neither being good enough at PG/SG on defense.  Ingram doesn't present those same issues with Trae that DJM does, imo.  

On the shot diet, it goes to his effectiveness as a scorer and whether he will be worth what I am expecting will be a pretty massive next contract.  I'm not specifically worried about it as far as him fitting with Trae offensively solely because he took midrange shots as part of an improved shot distribution playing under Snyder.  The main thing about his shot creation that I would worry about is if he needs the ball in his hands to do it.  If that is the case, that may create similar issues as far as him needing the ball and it being a your turn, my turn thing.  If he does most of his scoring on off ball opportunities, this is a non-issue (this has always been a huge value driver for Klay Thompson).

If Ingram can effectively defend SGs, that will go a long way to being a better fit (with Trae or DJM or any PG) than DJM was at the 2.  I do have questions as to whether Ingram can defend 2's.  I think of him as someone who has historically played more PF than he has SG.  That is what I see on 82games for example:

In a glass half empty view, I could see him not being a good fit with Trae (or DJM at PG, etc.) if he doesn't stretch the floor, can't defend SGs, takes too many mid-range shots, etc.  I would feel better if he was Trey Murphy and had a track record of being a good defender of opposing SGs.

I'm not completely without hope if we trade for him.  Ingram has size that DJM doesn't, he gets to the line more than DJM, etc.  I see Ingram as a trial period player.  We get the benefit of seeing how he performs before we have to make a big contract commitment which is good.  We can resign him without needing cap space to do it.  But where I think his value gets capped some is I think he is likely to end up overpaid as a young scorer and UFA and so you aren't likely to get a player who is going to outperform his contract which is where big value is driven and what would justify giving up valuable trade assets.  I think he is a bigger risk not to live up to his next contract than he is  to outperform it.

[AHF]

16 minutes ago, KB21 said:

No one would use the #1 pick to draft a Herb Jones archetype.  The Hawks shouldn't include it in a deal just to get him.  In fact, Murray for Jones by itself is a one sided deal, because despite the issues the Hawks have had with the Murray and Trae combo together, Murray is still a shot creator, and that is more valuable in isolation than Herb's POA defense.  Herb isn't anywhere near a shot creator.  

I think Herb Jones' amazing contract and the needs of each team makes DJM for Jones a good deal for both teams.  (Murray's contract is an asset but Jones' contract is a windfall.)

[AHF]

39 minutes ago, Hawkmoor said:

Big difference is Kyrie is not the full time point guard in Dallas.  Luka Doncic is.

Luka's usage rate is 20% higher than Trae's and he has a lower assist rate than Trae.  Trae's assists are genuinely not just about his role as PG and his usage rate.  Trae is an exceptional passer and playmaker.

[REHawksFan]

26 minutes ago, KB21 said:

No one would use the #1 pick to draft a Herb Jones archetype.  The Hawks shouldn't include it in a deal just to get him.  In fact, Murray for Jones by itself is a one sided deal, because despite the issues the Hawks have had with the Murray and Trae combo together, Murray is still a shot creator, and that is more valuable in isolation than Herb's POA defense.  Herb isn't anywhere near a shot creator.  

It seems like you are arguing against something that no one is arguing for.  I haven't seen anyone suggest trading the 1st pick for Herb Jones.  Unless I've missed something, the trade that has been discussed is DJM/Hunter/Capela for Ingram/Jones/Nance.  No picks involved.  In that scenario, you could and should still draft Sarr with the 1st pick.

Trae/Ingram/Jones/JJ/OO

Kobi/Bogi/Vit/Nance/Sarr

[KB21]

Just now, REHawksFan said:

It seems like you are arguing against something that no one is arguing for.  I haven't seen anyone suggest trading the 1st pick for Herb Jones.  Unless I've missed something, the trade that has been discussed is DJM/Hunter/Capela for Ingram/Jones/Nance.  No picks involved.  In that scenario, you could and should still draft Sarr with the 1st pick.

Trae/Ingram/Jones/JJ/OO

Kobi/Bogi/Vit/Nance/Sarr

There has clearly been a discussion about passing on the chance to draft Sarr so the pick can be used in the trade because, for some strange twilight zone reason, we just absolutely have to get Brandon Ingram, one of the most overrated players in the entire league.  

[Hawkmoor]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

Luka's usage rate is 20% higher than Trae's and he has a lower assist rate than Trae.  Trae's assists are genuinely not just about his role as PG and his usage rate.  Trae is an exceptional passer and playmaker.

 Luka's assists are more efficient than Trae's.  Efficiency is when and how you make plays.  Luka makes his teammates better.  Trae does not. Luka is on the verge of a NBA championship and can make a case for best player in the league.  Trae will never sniff a championship and is nowhere near the best player in the league.  It reminds me of how Matt Ryan would throw for 200 yards in garbage time and pad his stats.

Edited June 7 by Hawkmoor

[Mikey]

On 6/4/2024 at 10:10 PM, NBASupes said:

If I had to compare Clingan, six players come up for me

The 1st, Vlade Divac, strong low post player with a terrific passing and shooting touch. Weaker legs so they get moved and effected on both ends by it. Both are tremendous off ball movers

2nd, Mason Plumlee, he's not the athlete Mason is but he's not far when you consider his height and size. Both go all out and play extremely hard and they do not play at a pace at all. 

3rd, Clint Capela, young Clint was a terrific screener who set all types of screens, showcased excellent screen IQ and had a nice feel. Both really know how to go into pockets where they end up open for dunks using their athletic ability. Capela was more athletic but Clingan makes up for that with sheer size difference. 

4th, Domantas Sabonis, this is more of a shades thing as Sabonis has Shades of Divac in his game but he's just superior offensively. I think Sabonis is superior offensively as well as a long term prospect. 

5th, Rudy Gobert. Another shades guy. I don't believe he will be as good defending in space as Rudy even if he shows better flashes than Rudy did as a prospect. Rudy was just too weak as a prospect. Clingan is far more polished, but I am not sure the defensive upside to be Rudy is there. Kessler to me has the upside to be a better Rudy defensively. I am not sure Clingan has that but Clingan is better as a rim protector as a prospect by a mile just due to his sheer size and NBA readiness.

6th, more of an impact comp but Joakim Noah comes up in his charts. The first player I've had Noah come up for since Noah. Noah really impacted winning even if he wasn't a primary star, ever.

 

Strengths 

Passing

Low post offense

Big man Movement 

Screening

Rebounding

Athleticism for size

Upper body strength

NBA readiness

Plays extremely hard

Day 1 impact, especially in the right situation.

Elite impact out of college and played in an elite system in college and shined at it. Shades of Joakim Noah.

 

Weaknesses

Self creation on offense

Lower body concerns

Put backs

PnR finishing

Has to do a better just of handling contact for size

Stamina

Has a tremendous touch but is very inconsistent at shooting. I think the lower body strength impact this

Doesn't play at a pace

FT shooting is inconsistent even if form and touch is there. There is too much upside for him to be truly under 70% long term. I see a lot of young Al Horford in this area. 

Didn't play a ton of minutes which shows on overall impact charts. 

Player not listed that he has shades of Marc Gasol

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, AtLaS said:

Giving up a potential all-star (Murray) on a great contract plus trading out of a potential superstar at #1 for a defensive role player in Jones?  And Ingram?   I LOVE Jones, but he is at best the 4th/5th best player on a championship team.  

You don't EVER give up #1 overall (even in a perceived "weak" draft) for a role player unless you think that role player wins you the championship.  

I'd consider throwing in the Sac pick, but definitely not #1 overall.  We already gave up Luka, Pau, missed on Chris Paul/Deron Williams/Brandon Roy.  Now we are going to trade the top pick for Herb?  Nah

Problem with this perspective is many/most around the league don't see Sarr as a potential superstar.  So, if you change perspectives on that point it becomes moving down from #1 to a nearly equivalent, possibly superior, prospect, Clingan.  

If the league thought that highly of Sarr, the reporting would reflect that.  The actual take on this class is the top is weak, therefore Sarr is a long shot at turning into this superstar fantasy some people believe.  

Like people claim Sarr is a good shooter, but he actually shot 28%.  It goes on and on from what he's actually demonstrated in games (reality) vs what he could be if everything came together (fantasy).  I've seen more analysts and even the best Hawksquawk posters try to bring people to reality on Sarr.  The hype is bordering on delusion.  

Is he Cam Reddish or Giannis?  Not enough solid evidence to take to the bank either way.  

[KB21]

5 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Problem with this perspective is many/most around the league don't see Sarr as a potential superstar.  So, if you change perspectives on that point it becomes moving down from #1 to a nearly equivalent, possibly superior, prospect, Clingan.  

If the league thought that highly of Sarr, the reporting would reflect that.  The actual take on this class is the top is weak, therefore Sarr is a long shot at turning into this superstar fantasy some people believe.  

Like people claim Sarr is a good shooter, but he actually shot 28%.  It goes on and on from what he's actually demonstrated in games (reality) vs what he could be if everything came together (fantasy).  I've seen more analysts and even the best Hawksquawk posters try to bring people to reality on Sarr.  The hype is bordering on delusion.  

Is he Cam Reddish or Giannis?  Not enough solid evidence to take to the bank either way.  

Once again, there are a ton of positive indicators that show he is going to be able to shoot the ball from the perimeter in the NBA.  His shooting indicators are very similar to Wemby's before he came to the NBA.

[KB21]

9 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Player not listed that he has shades of Marc Gasol

The most obvious comparison is Walker Kessler.  

[Spud2nique]

12 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Player not listed that he has shades of Marc Gasol

No he doesn’t. Gasol was a passing savant @KB21 and Clingan isn’t that.

[AtLaS]

11 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Problem with this perspective is many/most around the league don't see Sarr as a potential superstar.  So, if you change perspectives on that point it becomes moving down from #1 to a nearly equivalent, possibly superior, prospect, Clingan.  

If the league thought that highly of Sarr, the reporting would reflect that.  The actual take on this class is the top is weak, therefore Sarr is a long shot at turning into this superstar fantasy some people believe.  

Like people claim Sarr is a good shooter, but he actually shot 28%.  It goes on and on from what he's actually demonstrated in games (reality) vs what he could be if everything came together (fantasy).  I've seen more analysts and even the best Hawksquawk posters try to bring people to reality on Sarr.  The hype is bordering on delusion.  

Is he Cam Reddish or Giannis?  Not enough solid evidence to take to the bank either way.  

He shot 29.8% (damn near 30%) on threes, and 60% on 2's as an 18 year old in a pro league.  Also shot 71% on FTs.  To think he won't improve considering his work ethic is a pretty low expectation.  Jalen Johnson shot 23% 2 years ago, OO wouldn't even attempt a jumper until last season, etc.  Sarr is already well ahead of them at his age.  And is much more of a freak.

Even if his shot doesn't improve at all (unlikely), just getting older and stronger at his size and athletic ability is going to make him a very good player offensively.  And we know he will be great defensively.  

 

[BangHolman]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

No one would use the #1 pick to draft a Herb Jones archetype.  The Hawks shouldn't include it in a deal just to get him.  In fact, Murray for Jones by itself is a one sided deal, because despite the issues the Hawks have had with the Murray and Trae combo together, Murray is still a shot creator, and that is more valuable in isolation than Herb's POA defense.  Herb isn't anywhere near a shot creator.  

Nola fans love him and overvalue him like we do with our players. DJ straight up for Herb would be a steal for them in a vacuum.

[Mikey]

11 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The most obvious comparison is Walker Kessler.  

Because all you see it big white guy that defends and nothing else. Hes better than kessler on both ends

8 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

No he doesn’t. Gasol was a passing savant @KB21 and Clingan isn’t that.

Have you watched Clingan pass?