2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Wretch said:

I understand where you guys are coming from, but when you stand up in a room and say, or infer, that everyone's opinions are invalid because professionals say so, I'm going to call it out.  It's a textbook (and laughable) appeal to authority fallacy.  It doesn't matter if they make the claim about one poster or all posters, it's a hollow argument that is easily deflated.

I obviously agree with you that fans are entitled to their opinion and to share it (all the usual caveats about not spamming the board, etc.).  

But since I enjoy discussions around the soundness of logical arguments, I think this one is a bit unusual.  An appeal to authority fallacy is usually fallacious because the authority doesn't have expertise on a particular topic or where the statement from the authority figure is opining on something that isn't directly relevant to the topic at hand.  

The idea that our front office has experts within it that should be given credence over internet posters isn't totally fallacious in the same way that statements from a physicist are fallacious as authority for an argument on evolutionary biology (the physics doctorate isn't relevant to the topic and so appealing to Dr. Whoever is an appeal to a false authority on this topic).  But there are also a number of things (many of which you've pointed) out that undermine it.

First, we don't have an actual statement from that supposed authority.  We don't even know which specific authority is supposed to be the source for what is being discussed.  That makes it difficult to impossible to assess whether the source is an actual authority figure on the statement at hand.  (Example:  Ressler Jr. is part of the front office but has no real expertise in scouting NBA players and so his opinion obviously should not be given deference.) 

Second, we don't even know for sure what the position of the supposed authority is.  We are getting these back door rumors but they are coupled with statements like that the front office is locking down information as best they can which suggests it is possible that the opinions of the true qualified talent assessors in the front office may not be what are actually being leaked.  It might be second hand, etc. which introduces all kind of reliability issues. 

Third, the idea that the information we are getting may not be 100% reliable is exacerbated by the fact that front offices put out all kinds of false information deliberately to try to throw other teams off, generate more interest in their assets, etc.

Fourth, even if the information is coming from true authority figures and is being communicated with perfect accuracy, we know that the "hit rate" of NBA talent assessors is fairly low.  Like, look at the 2000 lottery and let's give a "hit" to anyone who has a reasonable argument as one of the best couple candidates on the board.  Ant - Hit.  Wiseman - Miss.  Ball - Hit.  Williams - Miss.  Okoro - Miss.  OO - Hit.  Hayes - Miss.  Toppin - Miss.  Deni - Miss.  Smith - Miss.  Vassell - Hit.  Hali - Hit.  Lewis Jr. - Miss.  Nesmith - Miss.  That is 5 hits and 9 misses.  How does that compare to a random fan's mock draft?  Probably not that far off.  There is a good case to be made that the inherent uncertainty around draft picks makes even true experts less reliable than in other fields and thus less appropriate to give deference.

I think a general argument that anyone who thinks they "know" with any certainty how good players will end up being is fooling themselves.  This uncertainty is why the hit rate in the draft is so low.  And in the cases where there is powerful evidence to make a player much more certain than usual to succeed or fail that is usually obvious to fans as well as to the experts.  (Will Shaq or Duncan or LeBron be good?  Duh.  Everyone knew that answer.  How about Laettner, Van Horn and Darko?  Not quite so certain to be stars just a pick or two away from those sure things.)  But this argument applies to the GMs and true experts as well as to the casual fans.  I'd say this is just an area where there is not a truly reliable authority to which to appeal for most draft prospects in most drafts.\

And so I'm ultimately agreeing with you that anyone trying to shut people down from sharing their opinions because FO personnel know best is making an ultimately fallacious argument.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Bill Simmons at it again....

Who's gonna tell him?

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, Dragitoff said:

we also don't have a lot of draft picks available to us

We don't have our own 2025 draft pick but we do have the Kings 2025vpick (hopefully).

We will still a 2026 pick, either our own or Spurs.

So as of today, the only year we definitely do not have a pick is in 2027.

[Dragitoff]

12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We don't have our own 2025 draft pick but we do have the Kings 2025vpick (hopefully).

We will still a 2026 pick, either our own or Spurs.

So as of today, the only year we definitely do not have a pick is in 2027.

This was my point.  We don't own our own picks in a few seasons which means you don't just tank for the sake of a better pick since the Spurs either own our pick outright or have the right to swap for a few years coming up.  I was merely making the point we have to be smart about our picks or how they're used. If they're traded, it's not like some teams that can mortgage the future because they're 1 piece away from a championship.  We have to build through smart drafts, good usage of our assets (trade or keep) and shrewd signings.

[bleachkit]

23 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Bill Simmons at it again....

Who's gonna tell him?

Trade both? Hawks must really believe in Kobe Bufkin.

[NBASupes]

33 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Bill Simmons at it again....

Who's gonna tell him?

I mentioned in the last update. The executives around the league still think Atlanta will trade both and definitely feel they should trade both. The organization clearly doesn't feel the same way and Trae been involved in the draft process. 

[Hawkmoor]

29 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Bill Simmons at it again....

 

Who's gonna tell him?

Just for giggles. Even though the Hawks wouldn't do it, trading both Trae and Murray at THIS POINT is not as ludicrous as it sounds. I don't want to get into some kind of agenda about Trae because its not about that.  The Atlanta Falcons just showed that Atlanta is soo used to front office foolishness across the board with the Hawks and Falcons that when they made a brilliant move and drafted Michael Penix right after signing Kirk Cousins, it appeared ludicrous at first but it was brilliant.

Lets look at this scenario:  The Hawks trade Trae and whatever it takes for Ingram (with the exception of Jalen Johnson and Bogi. I like Bogi. Best shooter on the team). They move off Murray for picks and contracts.  You bump Boykin up to starting point guard even if it turns out to be just a stop gap.  You draft Sarr.  Now you have picks coming back for Trae and Murray with the temporary stop gap of:

pg Boykin

sg Bogi

sf Ingram

pf Johnson

C Sarr

Now you have a full blown restart with options galore to build around this.  Its not as crazy as it seems.  Its not a 3-2 pitch count big swing either.  You can big swing on any pitch count with this.

[kg01]

I cant imagine anyone that cares about the future of this team or franchise thinks the smart thing to do would be to #tradeboth.

Anyone that says that is being disingenuous or wants to acquire one of them for cheap.

For the record, me and @JayBirdHawk now got beef since she made me read the Simmons guy's words.  Now my brain hurts.

The cute part is he'll talk about there being no foundational piece available in the draft ... but sure the Hawks should blow it up and restart this year.

And a year from now he'll lambast the team for being terrible and resetting at the wrong time since thos draft is so bad(sic).

[Dragitoff]

I'm just shocked he doesn't think the Hawks should trade Trae to Boston for Horford and other scraps. 

[JayBirdHawk]

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I mentioned in the last update. The executives around the league still think Atlanta will trade both and definitely feel they should trade both. The organization clearly doesn't feel the same way and Trae been involved in the draft process. 

Unless I misunderstood what you wrote:

Quote

While teams thought Atlanta was gonna tank and trade Trae to SA and it was a done deal. They have come to realize Atlanta isn't open to trading Trae

 

[KB21]

The EHR at my clinic has gone out, and I'm ready to punch something and throw my damn computer out the window!

[Jody23]

"Although Zaccharie Risacher is ranked first on ClutchPoints' 2024 NBA Draft Big Board 3.0, Alex Sarr is the player the Atlanta Hawks should be taking in this position given his versatility and defensive instincts in the frontcourt. Sarr possesses the athleticism and length needed in modern-day big men, and he would find a lot of success in an offense run by Trae Young, whom the Hawks do not have much interest in trading away this offseason, league sources said. Still, the Hawks are evaluating all of their options pertaining to this top pick. Risacher, sources said, is still very much in play to be drafted first overall."

"At this juncture, the Hawks are evaluating several scenarios at the top of the draft, including hearing inquires from rival teams for their first overall selection. The San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers currently possess the assets that would be needed to make a swing for the Hawks' top pick. The belief right now is that general manager Landry Fields and his front office will be holding onto this selection, sources said. However, UConn's Donovan Clingan is a player the Hawks have done their research on in recent weeks, leading to the belief that the Hawks are open to the idea of moving down a few spots. As far as other moves the franchise could make, Atlanta is expected to make both Clint Capela and De'Andre Hunter available in trade discussions leading up to and past the NBA Draft."

[Jody23]

 

[HawksNWaffles]

34 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The EHR at my clinic has gone out, and I'm ready to punch something and throw my damn computer out the window!

Lemme guess..EPIC 

[Birdsfan]

2 hours ago, Dragitoff said:

I don't know that NO wants Brooks, since he is similar to Herb Jones, yet makes more $ than Jones.  If they relented and included Herb Jones in a deal for Murray to us, maybe to get us to relent on including OO instead of Capela, maybe they use Brooks to replace Herb as their defensive stopper. 

They are not parting with Jones, but the extra asset in Brooks could be used elsewhere in a deal or they could negotiate a different player.  If they can get #3 and another asset in an Ingram deal, they would take it as #3 should be more than enough to get Murray.

[Birdsfan]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I mentioned in the last update. The executives around the league still think Atlanta will trade both and definitely feel they should trade both. The organization clearly doesn't feel the same way and Trae been involved in the draft process. 

That would be surprising if they trade both.  They would have to get several very good young players and unprotected 1sts to part with Trae.

[Dragitoff]

4 minutes ago, Birdsfan said:

They are not parting with Jones, but the extra asset in Brooks could be used elsewhere in a deal or they could negotiate a different player.  If they can get #3 and another asset in an Ingram deal, they would take it as #3 should be more than enough to get Murray.

Remember, NO has motivation beyond simply moving off Ingram or acquiring a more traditional PG.  They are even more adverse to paying the tax than Atlanta based on the fact they have never once in their franchise history done it.  Technically, the Hawks have. I think Herb Jones is off-limits to an extent, much like JJ is for us.  They're viewed as key (and currently affordable) pieces of what each respective team is trying to build, but for the right deal, everyone is available. 

NO needs a versatile defender at center than can also stretch the floor.  OO could be that guy.  The hypothetical deal I threw out earlier (strictly off the noggin thrown together as a for instance) lowered their payroll while getting Murray and moving off Ingram.  To get that center they desperately need who is on a value contract, maybe they'd come off Herb Jones, but now we question....Is Murray and OO worth acquiring #3, Herb Jones, and filler?  You'd better be damn sure who you're drafting at #1 and #3 are legit rotation pieces that are borderline stars within a year or two or else Trae is probably a goner. 

Watching the Mavs run through the playoffs, I thought their archetype is what Atlanta needed to do.  Quality defenders and length with versatility and another secondary ballhandler.  Boston, to this point, has shut down any secondary scoring outside Luka and has frustrated him at times with their switchable and deep defense. 

At this point, I don't know what it'll take to surpass them in the East. Strangely enough, the Hawks had their number this year. 

[Wretch]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

And so I'm ultimately agreeing with you that anyone trying to shut people down from sharing their opinions because FO personnel know best is making an ultimately fallacious argument.  

I would also add (for clarity's sake) that I don't believe someone who played, coached, or managed NBA basketball operations as a "talent scout" is at all analogous to a dentist, a lawyer, or an architect with certifiable skill and demonstrable success in a specific discipline.  I think it's a false authority in every sense.

I'd feel at a disadvantage questioning Snyder's opinion on coaching or Garrison Matthews' opinion on what it takes to compete in the NBA.  I would argue with absolute confidence about who they think is the best prospect in any given draft.  I'll even take it a step further and say that I would take the combined Squawk draft arguments and consensus over that of most NBA FOs.

Mikey's statements are just typical "armchair GM" slights and are no different than BK telling us to sit down and let the "professionals" handle the business. As an aside...reflecting on that specifically, I think that's when I realized that perhaps we do have a valid opinion.

[KB21]

45 minutes ago, HawksNWaffles said:

Lemme guess..EPIC 

Far worse.  Intergy.  I would crawl on hot coals to go back to working with Epic.  

Edited June 10 by KB21

[Birdsfan]

24 minutes ago, Dragitoff said:

Remember, NO has motivation beyond simply moving off Ingram or acquiring a more traditional PG.  They are even more adverse to paying the tax than Atlanta based on the fact they have never once in their franchise history done it.  Technically, the Hawks have. I think Herb Jones is off-limits to an extent, much like JJ is for us.  They're viewed as key (and currently affordable) pieces of what each respective team is trying to build, but for the right deal, everyone is available. 

NO needs a versatile defender at center than can also stretch the floor.  OO could be that guy.  The hypothetical deal I threw out earlier (strictly off the noggin thrown together as a for instance) lowered their payroll while getting Murray and moving off Ingram.  To get that center they desperately need who is on a value contract, maybe they'd come off Herb Jones, but now we question....Is Murray and OO worth acquiring #3, Herb Jones, and filler?  You'd better be damn sure who you're drafting at #1 and #3 are legit rotation pieces that are borderline stars within a year or two or else Trae is probably a goner. 

Watching the Mavs run through the playoffs, I thought their archetype is what Atlanta needed to do.  Quality defenders and length with versatility and another secondary ballhandler.  Boston, to this point, has shut down any secondary scoring outside Luka and has frustrated him at times with their switchable and deep defense. 

At this point, I don't know what it'll take to surpass them in the East. Strangely enough, the Hawks had their number this year. 

I just don't think they trade Jones.  He is too valuable on a very cheap contract.  I would think he and Trey Murphy are their most important players behind Zion.  But, you never know.