2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[Final_quest]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

But most are suggesting we will up with two rookies, which coincidently cost more than #1 combined.

You have to add in the cost of like a vet min to the #1 overall pick.  It's 4+8 = 1+vet min.  The reason for preferring 4 + 8 is you get two lottery talents at the same price of #1 + vet min.  Which you would never do UNLESS you believed the #1 overall guy does not project to be a typical #1 overall type talent.  
 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

You have to add in the cost of like a vet min to the #1 overall pick.  It's 4+8 = 1+vet min.  The reason for preferring 4 + 8 is you get two lottery talents at the same price of #1 + vet min.  Which you would never do UNLESS you believed the #1 overall guy does not project to be a typical #1 overall type talent.  
 

Someone needs to give back and see how many times the #4 + #8 > #1 pick.

I'd be curious to see that.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

You have to add in the cost of like a vet min to the #1 overall pick.  It's 4+8 = 1+vet min.  The reason for preferring 4 + 8 is you get two lottery talents at the same price of #1 + vet min.  Which you would never do UNLESS you believed the #1 overall guy does not project to be a typical #1 overall type talent.  
 

If Hawks have rostered 2 rookies plus the 3 rookies from last season - I don't have any confidence in that team being top 6.

[Final_quest]

Just now, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Someone needs to give back and see how many times the #4 + #8 > #1 pick.

I'd be curious to see that.

Ordinarily you would never consider this, but it comes down to this year's draft.  If there was a computer simulation that took average outcomes by pick it would be a much different type of analysis.  Many people project this as a flat draft class, not top heavy.  

[NBASupes]

5 things to watch for from the Hawks

1. The Murray sweepstakes. There are serious suitors for him. It's finally going to happen. 

2. #1 overall pick. Do we keep it, do we trade it. 

3. Capela sweepstakes. He's very available and Atlanta is looking to shed salary. 

4. Hunter, for the first time, there is a legit chance he could be moved. While I have this in the 55th percent range, that's much higher than it's ever been previously. Like usual, offers matter and Atlanta isn't giving away Hunter. 

5. Watch for trades for players like Garrison Matthews or a stud young prospect AJ Griffin. Matthews is a player teams have called about and he could be packaged. 

[Final_quest]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

If Hawks have rostered 2 rookies plus the 3 rookies from last season - I don't have any confidence in that team being top 6.

There's a lot of dust to settle after the draft.  Gonna wait and see what final roster outcome is before I assume that is their plan.  

More on Sarr:

 

Why has he concluded this after listening to millions of draft podcasts?  He's repeating the most common take on Sarr.  We can't just listen to hype.  You have to at least acknowledge there are actual reasons why franchises like the Spurs would take Risacher over Sarr.  

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

There's a lot of dust to settle after the draft.  Gonna wait and see what final roster outcome is before I assume that is their plan.  

More on Sarr:

 

Why has he concluded this after listening to millions of draft podcasts?  He's repeating the most common take on Sarr.  We can't just listen to hype.  You have to at least acknowledge there are actual reasons why franchises like the Spurs would take Risacher over Sarr.  

But yet most Mocks still have him going #1 despite his flaws. 

Strange, very strange.

[Final_quest]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

But yet most Mocks still have him going #1 despite his flaws. 

Strange, very strange.

Crazy thing is I agree with that sentiment.  He's still the best prospect, but we're talking about a specific class.  Risacher is possible #1 and nobody really thinks he has star potential.

But the other side is I'm not saying anything different from the "millions of podcasts".  I'm actually only parroting what a lot of people are saying negatively about Sarr. 

To turn this into a question, not targeted specifically at you.  How many reality check takes have you listened to and if you have, why do you think Sarr will overcome his flaws and become a better player than Risacher and everyone else in this draft?  

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

My point exactly.  I guess it's the 'absolute nature' with which I see some comments are being presenting that gives me pause.

No question. Look no further than previous draft discussions that were framed in absolutes. The majority of those opinions turning out to be completely erroneous.

[AHF]

19 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Crazy thing is I agree with that sentiment.  He's still the best prospect, but we're talking about a specific class.  Risacher is possible #1 and nobody really thinks he has star potential.

But the other side is I'm not saying anything different from the "millions of podcasts".  I'm actually only parroting what a lot of people are saying negatively about Sarr. 

To turn this into a question, not targeted specifically at you.  How many reality check takes have you listened to and if you have, why do you think Sarr will overcome his flaws and become a better player than Risacher and everyone else in this draft?  

For me the 25% floor outcome is that Sarr becomes a competent jump shooter (which isn't a huge ask from a guy who shot 29% from 3 in a pro league at age 18 and has a decent looking stroke) and is an effective rim runner and reasonable floor spacer but is your 4th option offensively (except rim running where that is going to be a very efficient shot with Trae feeding you).  Defensively I think his downside scenario is one where he never gets the strength to hold the center spot and ends up an elite help defender at the 4 with the ability to play the 5 in certain matchups.  

The upside is enticing with him playing center where most 5's don't have the ability to check his speed and handle and so he can turn into a strong option offensively and one of the best defenders in the league with his size and quickness and versatility.  I can see that being easily better than any other option from this draft if it works out.  From a team perspective, I remain enticed by the idea of a working frontcourt of JJ, OO and Sarr.  All 3 guys need more development offensively (especially Sarr but no shock coming off his age 18 season) but I think defensively they could be dynamic in the right matchups this year let alone as development raises their production.

[KB21]

Some are really overthinking this.  Take a look at Sarr in transition.  How many 7-footer or even near 7-footers move the way he does in transition?   And he can do it with the ball.  
 

Look at how he can get downhill from the top of the key, break the paint with his dribble drive, and hit a spin move for a turnaround jumper with high level touch.  
 

He can shoot the jumper off the dribble.  He has catch and shoot ability but his inconsistency with his footwork in catch and shoot situations makes that inconsistent presently.  That’s something that Quin and Kyle would have fixed in a month’s time.  
 

So what if he is currently below average as a PNR big?   You can play him with OO, who is a high level PNR finisher.  You can play him with JJ and use his stretch ability to space the floor and create space for JJ’s drives.  

[REHawksFan]

28 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Crazy thing is I agree with that sentiment.  He's still the best prospect, but we're talking about a specific class.  Risacher is possible #1 and nobody really thinks he has star potential.

But the other side is I'm not saying anything different from the "millions of podcasts".  I'm actually only parroting what a lot of people are saying negatively about Sarr. 

To turn this into a question, not targeted specifically at you.  How many reality check takes have you listened to and if you have, why do you think Sarr will overcome his flaws and become a better player than Risacher and everyone else in this draft?  

You've literally copied and pasted 2 message board posts questioning Sarr.  Message board posts.  You aren't posting "millions of podcasts".  You quoted message board posts as if they are somehow persuasive?  Come on.  

No body knows what any of these players are going to end up being.  There's a reason Sarr is almost universally considered one of the top 2 prospects in the draft.  But you've already decided he won't be anything and has no offensive game.  

I'm not against projecting when it's done with some level of balance.  You project the ceiling and the floor.  You project where he's likely to be good and where he's likely to struggle. You project whether you think he will eventually develop a shot or not.  You don't just say "he has no offensive game" and "he's not going to be anything special".  And then back it up with two message board posts from the freaking Wizards of all places.  

There's been several videos highlighting the strengths and positives of Sarr.  Breakdowns of his games and actual analysis of where he needs to improve and where he's already at NBA levels.  But you're citing message board posts referencing random people listening to "millions of podcasts."  SMH

I haven't made any declarations of what any player will or won't be.  I prefer Sarr because I think his ceiling will be the highest and I love the idea of his defensive versatility pairing with JJ and Trae.  I'm not even concerned with his offense early on.  The Hawks need a center upgrade.  Sarr or Clingan are the only 2 guys I'm considering if I'm the Hawks.  Both have positives and negatives.  Neither is a finished product and no body knows how either will pan out.  

[JayBirdHawk]

47 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

To turn this into a question, not targeted specifically at you.  How many reality check takes have you listened to and if you have, why do you think Sarr will overcome his flaws and become a better player than Risacher and everyone else in this draft?  

I've listened to enough to know that both have flaws, some more easily fixable than others in specific areas. While others are just what they are like athleticism, wingspan etc.

What I wanted from this draft, regardless of where we were picking, was size, speed, athleticism and defense in the front court...so it's simple - Sarr covers that at the 4/5. And I'd be OK playing him some at the 3 due to his ability to put the ball on the floor from the perimeter and most importantly defend the perimeter.

And like others have said, I like the trio of JJ, Sarr and OO possibilities.

 

[deester11]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I've listened to enough to know that both have flaws, some more easily fixable than others in specific areas. While others are just what they are like athleticism, wingspan etc.

What I wanted from this draft, regardless of where we were picking, was size, speed, athleticism and defense in the front court...so it's simple - Sarr covers that at the 4/5. And I'd be OK playing him some at the 3 due to his ability to put the ball on the floor from the perimeter and most importantly defend the perimeter.

And like others have said, I like the trio of JJ, Sarr and OO possibilities.

 

Could it be so simple the Hawks screw it up? Unequivocally..yes.  Love this post Bird.

[Final_quest]

3 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

You've literally copied and pasted 2 message board posts questioning Sarr.  Message board posts.  You aren't posting "millions of podcasts".  You quoted message board posts as if they are somehow persuasive?  Come on.  

 

I'm demonstrating the general take on Sarr that many people are acknowledging.  I'm not persuaded by their knowledge.  Have you listened to any of the "millions of podcasts" that have a different point of view on Sarr than your own?  I actually started as a Sarr fan, and AFTER listening to buyer beware perspectives changed my mind.

Risacher is 19.  No one is saying he will be a star.  You have quite an emotional response to a valid conclusion.  I think Sarr's most likely outcome is not superstar or star, it's high level role player.  I told people the same thing about Cam, and people went off on me about him, too.  I never said Sarr can't or won't become anything.  I don't project any of the top picks as future stars in this draft.  
 

[kg01]

11 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

... I don't project any of the top picks as future stars in this draft.  
 

You mean other than Bronny, right? 

I just don't really love anybody this year.  I like Sarr for what he could become but fully acknowledge he's not close to that day-1.

I'm warming to Clingan but fully acknowledge his likely ceiling would make folks wonder how that was a #1pick. 

Ah well, I say we trick MEM into sending us Bane for the #1.  Who's with me? 

[REHawksFan]

12 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I'm demonstrating the general take on Sarr that many people are acknowledging.  I'm not persuaded by their knowledge.  Have you listened to any of the "millions of podcasts" that have a different point of view on Sarr than your own?  I actually started as a Sarr fan, and AFTER listening to buyer beware perspectives changed my mind.

Risacher is 19.  No one is saying he will be a star.  You have quite an emotional response to a valid conclusion.  I think Sarr's most likely outcome is not superstar or star, it's high level role player.  I told people the same thing about Cam, and people went off on me about him, too.  I never said Sarr can't or won't become anything.  I don't project any of the top picks as future stars in this draft.  
 

Here's what you aren't getting, I don't have a perspective on Sarr. I haven't said what I think he can or can't be. Not in terms of role player, all star, super star. I haven't made a single declaration about it because I don't know. 

My "emotional reaction" is not against you not liking Sarr. It was in direct response to you claiming "he won't be anything" and "he has no offensive game."

I responded simply saying he's 19, give him a chance to develop. But you already made up your mind. I haven't made up my mind on anyone. I just believe the Hawks need a center more than any other position so I'm favoring Sarr and Clingan. 

[Afro]

38 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Some are really overthinking this.  Take a look at Sarr in transition.  How many 7-footer or even near 7-footers move the way he does in transition?   And he can do it with the ball.  
 

Look at how he can get downhill from the top of the key, break the paint with his dribble drive, and hit a spin move for a turnaround jumper with high level touch.  
 

He can shoot the jumper off the dribble.  He has catch and shoot ability but his inconsistency with his footwork in catch and shoot situations makes that inconsistent presently.  That’s something that Quin and Kyle would have fixed in a month’s time.  
 

So what if he is currently below average as a PNR big?   You can play him with OO, who is a high level PNR finisher.  You can play him with JJ and use his stretch ability to space the floor and create space for JJ’s drives.  

We definitely seem to have reached this part of the cycle.

I fully understand the "Sarr will take time" argument and that someone like Clingan will have a greater immediate impact. 

But that's about the only argument that's been made so far that really moves me. 

If people wanna take Clingan because Sarr needs time and space to grow, and we're not the best place for that, I get it. Everything outside of that feels like people trying to create content because you cant spend 2 months saying "well its Sarr. See yall at the draft"

 

*Talking about media. Not here*

[Jdawgflow]

5 minutes ago, kg01 said:

You mean other than Bronny, right? 

I just don't really love anybody this year.  I like Sarr for what he could become but fully acknowledge he's not close to that day-1.

I'm warming to Clingan but fully acknowledge his likely ceiling would make folks wonder how that was a #1pick. 

Ah well, I say we trick MEM into sending us Bane for the #1.  Who's with me? 

It would certainly solve our toughness problem.  But Ivan Johnson has nothing on him, I fear.

[Afro]

10 minutes ago, kg01 said:

You mean other than Bronny, right? 

I just don't really love anybody this year.  I like Sarr for what he could become but fully acknowledge he's not close to that day-1.

I'm warming to Clingan but fully acknowledge his likely ceiling would make folks wonder how that was a #1pick. 

Ah well, I say we trick MEM into sending us Bane for the #1.  Who's with me? 

I'm not even all that worried about "on the court" Clingan being clowned. 

There are a lot of ways he could be sitting on the bench when it matters and thats terrifying lol. 

I think we all are in agreement that theres a decent chance he gets played off the floor in the playoffs. Which is fine if we have OO, but not ideal for a top 3 pick either. 

Hes had lower body injuries as a 7'3" 280 pound big. Scary. 

His conditioning(at least as far as minutes played) isn't great. If he maxes out at 27-30 minutes.....he better be amaze-balls in those minutes.