2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[thecampster]

Just now, AHF said:

If we don't get our own picks back, then there is no point to tanking. 

If we only get our 2025 pick back that is doubly the case because if we tear down a bit more and suck then it puts us in a position where we will likely suck in 2026 and 2027 and be feeding lottery picks to the Spurs.

I don't see a rebuild as being viable or advisable.  

Rebuild with Sarr = waiting 3+ years to just use our own lottery picks.  I can't understand why others do not see this.

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Rebuild with Sarr = waiting 3+ years to just use our own lottery picks.  I can't understand why others do not see this.

I get why BSPN and the like don't see that.  After all, they're not Hawks fans so they don't care about the future of this particular franchise.

What I don't get is why Hawks fans don't see it.

Unless ....  ...  (see bolded above)

[thecampster]

Just now, kg01 said:

I get why BSPN and the like don't see that.  After all, they're not Hawks fans so they don't care about the future of this particular franchise.

What I don't get is why Hawks fans don't see it.

Unless ....  ...  (see bolded above)

Not going to lie. I've been deep in my feels this offseason about, "dang it, just give me the keys to the car and let me drive it".  I 1000% know I could build a roster better than we have the last 7 years.  Its like they don't evaluate value propositions at all. They see something shiny and yell, here take my money, future draft picks, dignity.

[Hawkish]

Just now, thecampster said:

Not going to lie. I've been deep in my feels this offseason about, "dang it, just give me the keys to the car and let me drive it".  I 1000% know I could build a roster better than we have the last 7 years.  Its like they don't evaluate value propositions at all. They see something shiny and yell, here take my money, future draft picks, dignity.

So how do these people find themselves in the position in the first place?  Is there some 4D benefit I don’t see to not optimizing?  Are we scared to be great?

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Rebuild with Sarr = waiting 3+ years to just use our own lottery picks.  I can't understand why others do not see this.

It is entirely about how soon people envision Sarr being a contributing role player as he develops.  Can't speak for everyone, but I think the most common view is that with Sarr's size and speed that he would be expected to contribute off the bench to improve our defense in year 1 and look to grow from there.  That isn't what you'd expect from a #1 pick but I would also suggest that a lot of the people who like Sarr don't think any of these rookies is likely to be an impact player next year.

If you look at a scenario where you are running a lineup like:

Trae / Bufkin

Bogi / AJ / Herb

Herb (DJM trade) / Hunter / Vit

JJ / Sarr / Gueye

OO / Bruno or new vet C / Sarr

Add another player to the roster in the hypothetical CC trade and plant them where ever you want.

Many of those people would envision that being a playoff team over the next couple years and thus not generating lottery picks.

[AHF]

12 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Not going to lie. I've been deep in my feels this offseason about, "dang it, just give me the keys to the car and let me drive it".  I 1000% know I could build a roster better than we have the last 7 years.  Its like they don't evaluate value propositions at all. They see something shiny and yell, here take my money, future draft picks, dignity.

Unfortunately the most self-inflicted wounds we have taken are the big overpays we've done with our own RFAs.  That should be the easiest situation to manage.  Like right now don't give Bey a big contract.  Maybe let him test the market and then decide whether to match.  Would have worked better with JC and Hunter.

[kg01]

12 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Not going to lie. I've been deep in my feels this offseason about, "dang it, just give me the keys to the car and let me drive it".  I 1000% know I could build a roster better than we have the last 7 years.  Its like they don't evaluate value propositions at all. They see something shiny and yell, here take my money, future draft picks, dignity.

I detect no lies.

10 minutes ago, Hawkish said:

So how do these people find themselves in the position in the first place?  Is there some 4D benefit I don’t see to not optimizing?  Are we scared to be great?

Hmmm ...  do you think the owner's son having management and personnel input (including being buddies with the asst GM that was strangely hired and ultimately usurped Schlenk) might be a lil' problematic? 

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

Unfortunately the most self-inflicted wounds we have taken are the big overpays we've done with our own RFAs.  That should be the easiest situation to manage.  Like right now don't give Bey a big contract.  Maybe let him test the market and then decide whether to match.  Would have worked better with JC and Hunter.

Watching Heurter get traded over salary missteps hurt me most of all.  He is the ultimate glue guy. He is never going to be a star. He'll never be Klay Thompson but dang if he can't be the guy that brings the other 4 all together, bails out Trae when he's being bad Trae and we let him walk for "a potential pick" then went out and got Bey because we were missing something, had to replace what Huerter brought with Matthews/Vit (who I love). Just maddening.

[Hawkish]

6 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I detect no lies.

Hmmm ...  do you think the owner's son having management and personnel input (including being buddies with the asst GM that was strangely hired and ultimately usurped Schlenk) might be a lil' problematic? 

Ego is a powerful thing.  You’d rather have a voice than improve.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, NekiEcko said:

I understand @NBASupes, but the real question is whether he wants to stay. While he's currently in the process (which I personally disagree with), if he truly wants to commit, then signing an extension or a new contract that benefits the team would be the logical step.

My concern is that he may leave after next year, especially since the team lacks draft picks, cap space, and seemingly a future. For instance, if a team like the Spurs becomes excellent next year and needs a point guard like Trae to excel, he might consider that option more seriously than staying with a team that lacks its own draft picks for the next three years.

He really don't got a choice, the teams who want him don't see him as the end all. They just see him as a good addition. Atlanta sees Trae as someone you must overpay for like Mikal Bridges but teams around the NBA don't see him like that. 

1 hour ago, NekiEcko said:

I understand @NBASupes, but the real question is whether he wants to stay. While he's currently in the process (which I personally disagree with), if he truly wants to commit, then signing an extension or a new contract that benefits the team would be the logical step.

My concern is that he may leave after next year, especially since the team lacks draft picks, cap space, and seemingly a future. For instance, if a team like the Spurs becomes excellent next year and needs a point guard like Trae to excel, he might consider that option more seriously than staying with a team that lacks its own draft picks for the next three years.

He really don't got a choice, the teams who want him don't see him as the end all. They just see him as a good addition. Atlanta sees Trae as someone you must overpay for like Mikal Bridges but teams around the NBA don't see him like that. 

[Jody23]

9 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Watching Heurter get traded over salary missteps hurt me most of all.  He is the ultimate glue guy. He is never going to be a star. He'll never be Klay Thompson but dang if he can't be the guy that brings the other 4 all together, bails out Trae when he's being bad Trae and we let him walk for "a potential pick" then went out and got Bey because we were missing something, had to replace what Huerter brought with Matthews/Vit (who I love). Just maddening.

The Hawks don't win that game seven on the road if not for Huerter.  To see him traded like that was frustrating to say the least.

[NekiEcko]

6 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He really don't got a choice, the teams who want him don't see him as the end all. They just see him as a good addition. Atlanta sees Trae as someone you must overpay for like Mikal Bridges but teams around the NBA don't see him like that. 

Indeed, I recognize that we are in a relationship that feels inescapable, even though we possess the keys, the walking papers, and the promise of greener pastures ahead.

I increasingly wonder if, should we acquire a substantial number of picks from these trades, it would be wise to disassemble the team, as it represents the epitome of a treadmill team.

Whether we trade him or retain him, our situation remains unchanged. I sometimes wish we had someone like Brad Stevens as our President of Basketball Operations or a similar figure.

[ShayD]

59 minutes ago, AHF said:

If we don't get our own picks back, then there is no point to tanking.  If we get the Pelicans pick or Lakers pick, etc. we are just praying that they suck.  We still want to be good in that case.

If we get our own picks back, then we are in a rough position with a roster that is at least good enough to be mediocre and thus not likely to do well in a tanking scenario.  If we only get our 2025 pick back that is doubly the case because if we tear down a bit more and suck then it puts us in a position where we will likely suck in 2026 and 2027 and be feeding lottery picks to the Spurs.

I don't see a rebuild as being viable or advisable.  

The reasoning may be they keep DJM, tank for 1 year(2025) and by 2026 the roster will be competitive enough by the end of 2026(you still have a pick but a swap) entering 2027. Get a good prospect to develop from the bench. You will still have DJ/SG/Hunter/JJ/OO with Bufkin/Gueye/AJ/2025 top pick/2024 top picks and the rest of the assets they get from Trae trade. It's a good plan in theory and you can understand a team that has struggled to build a good roster around their franchise player would consider this. 

But for the record, I think it's a silly idea and they should continue to build the best team around Trae until he asks out. You will be lucky to find a player of Trae Young caliber from the draft even with all his negatives, he is still a really good player in this league and really underrated by many. Just have to find the right fitting players that want to be here

Edited June 21 by ShayD

[JeffS17]

50 minutes ago, Hawkish said:

So how do these people find themselves in the position in the first place?  Is there some 4D benefit I don’t see to not optimizing?  Are we scared to be great?

Every fan base feels this way about their front office barring a couple of perennially good teams or contenders.  There are 30 teams in the league and fans arent usually happy if their team isnt in championship contention or improving / have reason to be optimistic.   
 

IMO there is at least one viable path forward trading Trae, which is to take at least our ‘25 pick back plus more.  It means we have to accept we cannot build a contender around him in our current situation as @NekiEcko said.  A tough pill to swallow for sure.

There could be another viable path as well where we get high quality rotation pieces for Trae.  Something like Trae + for Herb Jones + Trey Murphy and picks.  Just spitballing here so no need to dissect that particular suggestion but that would be another path.  We would remain competitive while developing.  As @AHF already said, we’ll still be mediocre with no Trae at all, so adding high quality young pieces in his place should leave us with a good team with upside.  And thats before we use or deal our #1 pick.

[JeffS17]

45 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Watching Heurter get traded over salary missteps hurt me most of all.  He is the ultimate glue guy. He is never going to be a star. He'll never be Klay Thompson but dang if he can't be the guy that brings the other 4 all together, bails out Trae when he's being bad Trae and we let him walk for "a potential pick" then went out and got Bey because we were missing something, had to replace what Huerter brought with Matthews/Vit (who I love). Just maddening.

I assume what you were really upset about is trading fir DJ?   It never made sense to have both Heurter and Bogi coming off the bench.  Salary implications aside, that feels like way too much depth in a single niche role (bad defenders who can shoot 6th man archetype).  Bey brings toughness and aggression, two things Heurter had zero of

[ShooterSays]

So the 1 year we actually get the #1 overall pick and it’s a weak draft and the top prospect in said weak draft won’t even work out for us? LOL

How am I supposed to get excited about this ****???

[Afro]

26 minutes ago, ShayD said:

The reasoning may be they keep DJM, tank for 1 year(2025) and by 2026 the roster will be competitive enough by the end of 2026(you still have a pick but a swap) entering 2027. Get a good prospect to develop from the bench. You will still have DJ/SG/Hunter/JJ/OO with Bufkin/Gueye/AJ/2025 top pick/2024 top picks and the rest of the assets they get from Trae trade. It's a good plan in theory and you can understand a team that has struggled to build a good roster around their franchise player would consider this. 

But for the record, I think it's a silly idea and they should continue to build the best team around Trae until he asks out. You will be lucky to find a player of Trae Young caliber from the draft even with all his negatives, he is still a really good player in this league and really underrated by many. Just have to find the right fitting players that want to be here

Keeping DJM still doesn't really make sense. 

Let's just use Ant as an example for the 25 pick. In this example we tank and get lucky with a top 3 or 4 pick in 25. It turns into something like Ant. 

It's taken Ant 4 years to turn into "that guy" who can help a team get deep into the playoffs. DJM will be 31/32 by the time the 24/25 picks even begin to be capable of real things. 

[Afro]

If you're trading Trae for assets, I don't really see the point in keeping DJM instead of just drafting Reed at 1 and having 2 times the assets. 

If they're gonna do it, they need to DO it. 

[AHF]

29 minutes ago, ShayD said:

The reasoning may be they keep DJM, tank for 1 year(2025) and by 2026 the roster will be competitive enough by the end of 2026(you still have a pick but a swap) entering 2027. Get a good prospect to develop from the bench. You will still have DJ/SG/Hunter/JJ/OO with Bufkin/Gueye/AJ/2025 top pick/2024 top picks and the rest of the assets they get from Trae trade. It's a good plan in theory and you can understand a team that has struggled to build a good roster around their franchise player would consider this. 

But for the record, I think it's a silly idea and they should continue to build the best team around Trae until he asks out. You will be lucky to find a player of Trae Young caliber from the draft even with all his negatives, he is still a really good player in this league and really underrated by many. Just have to find the right fitting players that want to be here

To me that is an absolute dumpster fire of a plan that has everything working against it.

First, rebuild tanking is a multiple year process that is all about getting multiple chances in the lottery.  This plan is a 1 time effort.

Second, the same team that is good enough to be competitive in 2026 is too good to tank in 2025.  DJM / Bogi / Hunter / JJ / OO is not a team that gets you viable odds to win the lottery.  You need to do a Spurs by holding out healthy players to completely tank a season or a Sixers by tearing the team down to studs to ensure you have viable lottery odds and even then the odds are that you still won't get that #1 pick.  That is why you need multiple swings at it for a rebuilding tank to be viable.  (The first round of Spurs tanking was leaning into injuries with a playoff level team so it is more surgical and only worked because guys legit got injured and then they just held them out rather than bringing them back.) 

Counting on something happening like it did for us this season where we defy very low odds is like basing your financial planning around scratch-off lottery tickets.  It can work but it is foolish at best.

The odds of this plan playing out and not having a single player as good as Trae on the team by 2028 are extremely high.

[JeffS17]

2 minutes ago, Afro said:

Keeping DJM still doesn't really make sense. 

Let's just use Ant as an example for the 25 pick. In this example we tank and get lucky with a top 3 or 4 pick in 25. It turns into something like Ant. 

It's taken Ant 4 years to turn into "that guy" who can help a team get deep into the playoffs. DJM will be 31/32 by the time the 24/25 picks even begin to be capable of real things. 

You still need vets even in a rebuild.  DJ is honestly the perfect locker room vet for young guys.  And we would still be competing as we dont have our picks… you develop guys by developing winning habits, not tanking.

Havent seen a Trae trade floated yet that really makes sense but Soth claims there is a non-Spurs team interested (with a serious offer) so its possible.