2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[HawksNWaffles]

1 hour ago, capstone21 said:

I hate that I am constantly checking this threadand hoping for even a tidbit of news

[JeffS17]

21 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Come to the darkside, capst.  Outsiders 'R Us. 

I been waiting on my invitation but it must keep getting lost in the mail

[sturt]

4 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

No way to the top of Everest without coming down from that local max.

 

Suffice it to say as a closing thought (for me, anyway) to this vein of dialogue, the one thing we plausibly all would agree upon b/c we lived through it... that pandemic really screwed with that next season (21-22)...

And the other thing only some of us would agree upon (apparently)... just a sec, let me set this up in terms everyone should be able to get... if we selected a random 30 employers in Atlanta who all had 15-ish young adult employees, and looking at a 6-week period in which the area covid infections had spiked, we'd find that there was a considerable range of variance between the most affected employee group and the least affected, using whatever measure of productivity you'd want to consider. And the point being, it's been a common and/but wrong-headed presumption that every team suffered the same obstacles, and thus, that the Hawks should have been just as able to win games during that Dec 1 - Jan 15 period as any other team.

Add to that illness factor, you had an on-going plague of injuries to consequential players that Schlenk had thought he would be able to rely upon... 

(a) Beginning of the season through January, Onyeka--who had so impressed with his defense vs. Embiid last post-season--and DHunt barely played

(b) Mid-Feburary until the end of the season, John's finger injury took him off the court for the most part, and when he came back for the MIA series, he was nothing close to 100%... and... 

(c) Then you had the Play-In game vs. CLE that pretty much eliminated Clint from being capable of having any positive impact on the MIA series..

and so, to analyze that season ignoring all of that? That would be, effectively, to choose cognitive dissonance and prefer emotional reaction over critical thought and a desire for objectivity. And too often, though, that was the analysis one would read: what a terrible team this turned out to be, after all, and just look what a disgrace they were versus MIA. So wrong.

Using the Everest analogy, it's the same as we got caught in a blizzard, and the weather just wouldn't let us ascend, and it was all we could do just to maintain where we were. But given that fuller picture of the situation, indeed, we did maintain for the most part.

The following off-season (2022), I liked that we saw the front office make an aggressive step, adding DJM. The direct cost of that was losing Gallo, and though we'd all presumed that would be the case, we did suffer from the fact that there really wasn't any legit effort to replace him... Frank the Tank Kaminsky was just never going to be a serious factor. But maybe DJM could represent a net positive.

Nope.

Then, of course, they effectively still ended up subtracting the overall talent inventory when they dealt Huerter. While it was argued that there simply were not enough minutes to justify keeping Kevin, and that it made sense to try to mitigate the effect of having dealt so much draft capital to SAS, it turned out that, no, the minutes thing didn't hold up to scruitiny since, actually, they found minutes for the comparable-sized wing who quickly proved to be too past his prime.

When they filled the Huerter void in Feb 23 by obtaining Bey, we were 50-something games into the season, without the benefit of the production that either one might otherwise have added.

Drama characterized everything about the franchise over those first 50-something games... the owner, the PoBO, the basketball ops staff, the head coach, and oh yeah, the individual players... were all at some point immersed in some form of chaos or disagreement. Travis was let go, and not replaced, leaving the league's youngest GM to figure it out. Nate was let go, and soon replaced by, at least, someone with some recognized credibility to do his job well, ie, Quin.

Somewhat amazingly, as the playoffs rolled around, there was a sense from the performance in the MIA play-in game that a corner was being turned, and the Boston series confirmed that this was a team that was coming together after all. The season ended with a lot of anticipation that this was a team evolving into a new age of maturity, and with that, a sense that maybe this roster under this widely-adored head coach, with maybe just a little talent boost, could be on a significant upward trajectory after all.

Continuing the analogy, maybe we'd been driven back to a lower camp on the mountain, but the sun was out and temperatures were warming, and perhaps another ascent back up to the camp where we finished 20-21 was feasible.

That talent boost not only didn't happen last off-season, of course, but rather, the talent inventory took a significant hit.

This is where I exited because this is where I realized the irrefutable conclusion that APR's management paradigm in combination with the newly-vivid priority on a winning spreadsheet over winning a title, both together, will necessarily always constitute too strong a headwind to ascend Everest as easily as most other NBA teams can. And that's a problem because Everest is already incredibly difficult to ascend.

You see, Antony Peter Ressler, I'm the sort of person who, when the owner of a sports franchise I follow, challenges me to detach from his hind-tit for my oxytocin and dopamine rushes, he's going to lose. Take Jim Crane, for example... bought my baseball team in 2011... infamously said when a reporter suggested there was strong backlash to the fact he was taking Selig's bribe and moving the team to the AL the next season, "It's not like they have any choice" (paraphrase). Can take a lot of people for granted as you sell hope, and generate income for yourself, but I will at least have the satisfaction that I will not be one of those. Give me respect as a fan, as a consumer of what you sell, or forget it... where it concerns you, APR, I'll not be satisfied with hamster wheels...  you genuinely must be committed to reaching the summit, by virtue of both words and actions, or I'm out for whatever time that paradigm is extant. I won't be your lap dog. I have no need to be.

 

[kg01]

48 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I been waiting on my invitation but it must keep getting lost in the mail

I dunno, mayne.  Initiation includes saying something critical of Landry and the gang.  You might have trouble gettin in. 

[Threezus]

5 hours ago, kg01 said:

I dunno, mayne.  Initiation includes saying something critical of Landry and the gang.  You might have trouble gettin in. 

Hold on now i've been doing this for a long time now and even the steady jabs at messy ressy.  You telling me i been doing all this for free when i could have been working toward such a prestigious group to join lol.

[JayBirdHawk]

Anyone want to decipher this one? 

 

apparently DJ has since deleted it.

[bleachkit]

11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Anyone want to decipher this one? 

 

apparently DJ has since deleted it.

If we are going to trade him, before the draft would be preferable. 

Edited June 22 by bleachkit

[Afro]

27 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Anyone want to decipher this one? 

 

apparently DJ has since deleted it.

I saw this last night and was very disappointed in the squawk. 

Yall slipping! How we gonna let 12 hours pass by lol 

[JayBirdHawk]

13 minutes ago, Afro said:

I saw this last night and was very disappointed in the squawk. 

Yall slipping! How we gonna let 12 hours pass by lol 

So YOU let the 12 hours past ...

[JeffS17]

8 hours ago, kg01 said:

I dunno, mayne.  Initiation includes saying something critical of Landry and the gang.  You might have trouble gettin in. 

Landry has bags under his eyes and Tony Ressler looks like a goon trying to swag surf

[Afro]

13 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So YOU let the 12 hours past ...

I know how much it bothers everyone. I was just trying to let people enjoy their Friday night before blowing a gasket over an emoji lol. 

[warcore]

15 hours ago, terrell said:

Gafford actually wanted us to draft him.. We opted for Bruno instead.. smdh

FWIW, each of those were the top bigs I wanted out of that draft. Happy we at least came out with Bruno and happy he's back here. 

[bird_dirt]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Anyone want to decipher this one? 

 

apparently DJ has since deleted it.

I mean, at this point it would be a bigger surprise if he wasn’t traded. Those eyeballs are to be expected. 

[Spud2nique]

 

what’d I miss? 

[bird_dirt]

19 hours ago, thecampster said:

And to be fair, that's the argument we've been having on this board for 4 weeks now.  People fall into a few camps on the board (without badmouthing any concept)
1. Draft Sarr - People in this camp are betting that his impact will be faster than many projections. They believe he can and will make the leap sooner rather than later allowing us to rotate out of our overpriced roster players. They're betting on his height/athleticism vs his current weight (which could change). This allows us to move on from Clint and get out from under his contract bringing back whatever we can get for him.
2. Draft Risacher - People in this camp are still assuming we'll grab him at #1 and believe his height, natural feel, handles is a boon at the 3 spot and will allow us to move on from Hunter after this season or at the trade deadline, getting out of his contract, bringing back assets.
3. Draft Clingan - This camp is split between taking him at #1 overall or moving down a couple slots to take him. At #1, the thought is he's more ready to play than Sarr and so it will allow a faster move on from Clint. In a trade down, it gives us a second asset (future) and more flexibility in case we have to rebuild. The bet here is he's more ready to play than Sarr and in 4 years the difference between the 2 won't be enough to have you regret it.
4. Draft Edey - This camp is of a similar mind as trade down for Clingan but believe he's a better player and can be picked up lower. This means the higher asset in the trade down can be spent on another pick in the top 10 (Shepherd, Knect, Holland or whoever they fancy).
 

1. Draft Sarr is my preferred choice. Trade CC and either keep Bruno or trade him and bring in a bigger C like Kessler, Val or Vuc. Let Sarr split time as a backup between 4 & 5 this year getting ~20-24 minutes between the two spots. 

2. I don’t really like Risacher that much, but the reason why I could see him being the pick is because we need depth in the worst way at SF. We had/have no answer for when the inevitable happens and Hunter misses time with injury. ZR would be a decent and cheap backup for Hunter so I hope we wouldn’t trade him, unless we get another SF in a separate trade, like DJM for BI. ZR and BI/DH would be a better option for SF depth from a cap perspective than BI & DH together or either BI or DH and current roster options. 

3. Drafting Clingan is an ok option. I get it. It will allow us to move on from CC fairly confidently and be settled at C for the foreseeable future. He’s a good player, but I still would prefer Sarr for two reasons: I like Sarr’s higher upside and Clingan’s foot injuries concern me. Clingan in a vacuum is a really good player, but he didn’t play heavy minutes and taking him at 1 gives me Sam Bowie vibes. 

4. Drafting Edey isn’t a real option. I like Edey and think he would provide value in a trade down with the added assets, but the Hawks aren’t going to do this so there’s no reason to even entertain this idea. 

[thecampster]

25 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

4. Drafting Edey isn’t a real option. I like Edey and think he would provide value in a trade down with the added assets, but the Hawks aren’t going to do this so there’s no reason to even entertain this idea. 

Do not be so sure. If they take Risacher at 1, they can trade back in to get Edey if he falls.

If they trade down, he is one of multiple centers they would consider at the 2nd pick slot.

[bird_dirt]

Just now, thecampster said:

Do not be so sure. If they take Risacher at 1, they can trade back in to get Edey if he falls.

If they trade down, he is one of multiple centers they would consider at the 2nd pick slot.

Is this something you just personally think would be possible, or is there any intel coming from your sauces (KG sic) to make you say this? 
I have heard zero connection/interest from the Hawks wrt Edey and have only heard the opposite in that they aren’t considering him at all from @Mikey. 

[kg01]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Landry has bags under his eyes and Tony Ressler looks like a goon trying to swag surf

Eh, pretty weak but it qualifies you for a spot on the waiting list.  Take heart though, the acceptance rate is like 7.354% so there's no shame in being wait listed. 

6 hours ago, Threezus said:

Hold on now i've been doing this for a long time now and even the steady jabs at messy ressy.  You telling me i been doing all this for free when i could have been working toward such a prestigious group to join lol.

Just bring your receipts, we give credit for past performance(s). 

[thecampster]

1 minute ago, bird_dirt said:

Is this something you just personally think would be possible, or is there any intel coming from your sauces (KG sic) to make you say this? 
I have heard zero connection/interest from the Hawks wrt Edey and have only heard the opposite in that they aren’t considering him at all from @Mikey. 

Contingency boards. I wouldn't have wasted all the print I have been if he wasn't on their contingency boards.

[thecampster]

Contingency boards work like this.

1) We have a trade for DJM, we need to include Gueye. We are short at PF/Wing now. Players coming back fill the defensive 2 slot.  We need to get a 4 in the draft.
     a) then Risacher is the pick, play he and JJ on the floor together as a 3/4 combo with each player moving to a different slot based on who is on the floor with them (Hunter/each other).
2) We have a trade for Clint, we need a big. We got back wings in the Clint deal.
     a) then Clingan unless 

     b) we have a trade down available at 4/8 take it. Clingan goes #3, Sarr off board. Take best player available from list, take best big available left at 8 (depends on his slotting on our board).
3) We have a trade for Trae, getting 2 of our picks (25/27) back and 8. Going into rebuild mode. Dump long salary (Hunter/OO) then
     a) take Sarr 1, take bpa at 8. Decide if Sarr is the real deal during the course of the year, use our pick and Sacs next year to adjust.  Build around JJ/DJM/Bufkin, trade expiring Clint at Deadline.

But there are contingency mock ups that have us taking 3 different players at #1 and at least 8 other people in possible trade downs.  For example (I can talk about this), if Nikola Topic falls far enough due to his injury, there is a contingency for us to trade back in and select him late in the 1st.

That's the contingency board work up.  You scenario each board based on incoming pick trade options, outgoing player options and surprise pick/falls in the draft.  There are really good guys working in the front offices and there is usually a mock in the contingencies that nails the first 15+ picks and they never say what the "expert" mocks say.  Yes I know that in some of the contingencies, Edey is a part of the contingencies. If it wasn't so, I wouldn't have talked about it.  Anyone saying "the pick is" the last 6 weeks or saying "Edey is going to team X outside the lottery" is a liar and the truth is not in him. He'd have no way of knowing.

No, I am not at liberty to talk right now because the first shoe hasn't dropped. Nor do I want to say much. It hasn't been a good value proposition for me to come out of hiding on this and I'm uncomfortable with the attention.  Kind of soured on the whole thing.