2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[bleachkit]

The draft is a lot of luck, it honestly is. This year it's a complete crapshoot. What the Hawks need to get right is their trades. Even trades have an element to luck, but the values involves are far more tangible/measureable. 

 

Edited June 22 by bleachkit

[kg01]

9 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

The draft is a lot of luck, it honestly is. This year it's a complete crapshoot. What the Hawks need to get right is their trades. Even trades have an element to luck, but the values involves are far more tangible/measureable. 

 

Finally somebody gets it.  Who TF cares who we draft?  The trades are where we move the needle this cycle.  Draft pick, whoever TF it is, will be in College Park or a backup most of the season.

This was true when we were at #10 and it's still true now that we're at #1.

All the infighting and gnashing of teeth is useless.  Yall out here fighting over the eventual 9th or 10th man in the rotation. 

[JayBirdHawk]

14 minutes ago, thecampster said:

2) We have a trade for Clint, we need a big. We got back wings in the Clint deal.
     a) then Clingan unless 

     b) we have a trade down available at 4/8 take it. Clingan goes #3, Sarr off board. Take best player available from list, take best big available left at 8 (depends on his slotting on our board).

I don't see the point in trading down from #1 to #4 and miss on the guy you are targeting, and now having to select 'best available' from who's left on the board.

You have the #1 pick, get the guy you WANT, not the guy you have to 'settle' for.

That's just not logical.

[Hawkish]

5 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Finally somebody gets it.  Who TF cares who we draft?  The trades are where we move the needle this cycle.  Draft pick, whoever TF it is, will be in College Park or a backup most of the season.

This was true when we were at #10 and it's still true now that we're at #1.

All the infighting and gnashing of teeth is useless.  Yall out here fighting over the eventual 9th or 10th man in the rotation. 

Precisely — The DJ trade rumors make me way more anxious than the draft.  

[KB21]

Gut feeling that a Murray to San Antonio trade is close to happening.  

[Hawkish]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Gut feeling that a Murray to San Antonio trade is close to happening.  

Bring the additional negative news stories…. “Hawks bought the used car at a new price and sold it for salvage.”

[thecampster]

Let me explain this whole "experts" thing. Most years, they tend to nail the first few picks because in most years they are widely known. Not this year but most years.  But lets take a look at how last year turned out.  What follows is the analysis from nba draft room dot com. The below is their final 2 round mock draft.  Column 3 is where the player was projected. Column 5 is if they were right or wrong and by how many slots. Yes, in the top 30 picks we have wrong guesses by 25, 16, 11, 8 slots. The only got 7 right picks in the lottery, 1 outside. 8 right total, 22 wrong.  Don't trust experts. Don't trust Mocks and don't trust player comparisons in mocks. Everyone can't be compared to Grant Hill or Siakam that's the 3/4.

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft/

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-2nd-round/

Pick	Mock	Projected	Taken order
1	Victor Wemban-yama	1	Victor Wemban-yama	Correct
2	Brandon Miller	2	Brandon Miller	Correct
3	Scoot Henderson	3	Scoot Henderson	Correct
4	Amen Thompson	4	Amen Thompson	Correct
5	Ausar Thompson	5	Ausar Thompson	Correct
6	Anthony Black	6	Anthony Black	Correct
7	Jarace Walker	10	Bilal Coulibaly	3 slots
8	Taylor Hendricks	7	Jarace Walker	1 slot
9	Cam Whitmore	8	Taylor Hendricks	1 slot
10	Bilal Coulibaly	16	Cason Wallace	6 slots
11	Kobe Bufkin	27	Jett Howard	16 slots
12	Dereck Lively	12	Dereck Lively	Correct
13	Jalen Hood-Schifino	14	Gradey d*ck	1 slot
14	Gradey d*ck	15	Jordan Hawkins	1 slot
15	Jordan Hawkins	11	Kobe Bufkin	4 slots
16	Cason Wallace	17	Keyonte George	1 slot
17	Keyonte George	13	Jalen Hood-Schifino	4 slots
18	Noah Clowney	22	Jaime Jaquez Jr.	4 slots
19	Nick Smith Jr.	25	Brandin Podziemski	6 slots
20	Kris Murray	9	Cam Whitmore	11 slots
21	Rayan Rupert	18	Noah Clowney	3 slots
22	Jaime Jaquez Jr.	27	Dariq Whitehead	7 slots
23	Leonard Miller	20	Kris Murray	3 slots
24	Olivier-Maxence Prosper	24	Olivier-Maxence Prosper	Correct
25	Brandin Podziemski	38	Marcus Sasser	13 slots
26	James Nnaji	29	Ben Sheppard	3 slots
27	Jett Howard	19	Nick Smith Jr.	8 slots
28	Dariq Whitehead	30	Brice Sensabaugh	2 slots
29	Ben Sheppard	34	Julian Strawther	5 slots
30	Brice Sensabaugh	55	Koby Brown	25 slots

[thecampster]

12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I don't see the point in trading down from #1 to #4 and miss on the guy you are targeting, and now having to select 'best available' from who's left on the board.

You have the #1 pick, get the guy you WANT, not the guy you have to 'settle' for.

That's just not logical.

Oh for F@$ks sake.  That's just a possibility if a plan fails. A contingency.  No one is saying that is what should happen or will happen. This is why I don't wanna do this anymore.  Do not read too much into that. What I wrote is, "We have contingency boards. Possibilities of what we could do given a number of scenarios, including if that scenario doesn't go according to plan."  Yes they have a board for everything, no that isn't what will happen. I was just educating. 

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Oh for F@$ks sake.  That's just a possibility if a plan fails. A contingency.  No one is saying that is what should happen or will happen. This is why I don't wanna do this anymore.  Do not read too much into that. What I wrote is, "We have contingency boards. Possibilities of what we could do given a number of scenarios, including if that scenario doesn't go according to plan."  Yes they have a board for everything, no that isn't what will happen. I was just educating. 

I understand the point of a contingency planning. 

Such a trade down will only be contingent on your guy being there........which means that this kind of trade is unlikely to happen prior to the draft without seeing how the draft actually plays out. 

it's similar to SAS trading George Hill for Kawhi. SAS would only trade Hill to Indy if Kawhi was still available at #15, and Indy had no idea who the Spurs were targeting until the pick was on the clock.

[bleachkit]

With this draft being a crapshoot, I like the idea of more bites of the apple

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I understand the point of a contingency planning. 

Such a trade down will only be contingent on your guy being there........which means that this kind of trade is unlikely to happen prior to the draft without seeing how the draft actually plays out. 

Unless you are not 1000% sold he's the guy and think there are multiple = guys at that spot.

Nobody in this draft is "the guy" right now, nobody.  People think the guy they support is the guy but he isn't.  The team does not think anyone in this draft is the next Tim Duncan. They see a lot of very similar potential players and all of those players will need to be coached up in something, weight gained or lost. There is no Wemby. Nobody is saying, "that's my guy and I'm going to get a steal".  Right now, Clingan could go anywhere between 1-9.  Sarr anywhere between 1-6. Risacher 1-6.  Shepherd 3-12. Holland 5-20. Topic 10-30.  hence, contingencies because in a normal year you're playing 7 card stud. This year, roulette with only 1 bet to be placed and its on a number not color.

[Afro]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

 

what’d I miss? 

Just another day on the the never ending march towards insanity. 

[bleachkit]

3 minutes ago, Afro said:

Just another day on the the never ending march towards insanity. 

Gotta kill time somehow I suppose. 

[JayBirdHawk]

8 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

With this draft being a crapshoot, I like the idea of more bites of the apple

Why you need more bites of a rotten apple though ....

 

[HawksNWaffles]

Here's some info that I've been hearing...........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Someone is going number one  

[JeffS17]

53 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Contingency boards work like this.

1) We have a trade for DJM, we need to include Gueye. We are short at PF/Wing now. Players coming back fill the defensive 2 slot.  We need to get a 4 in the draft.
     a) then Risacher is the pick, play he and JJ on the floor together as a 3/4 combo with each player moving to a different slot based on who is on the floor with them (Hunter/each other).
2) We have a trade for Clint, we need a big. We got back wings in the Clint deal.
     a) then Clingan unless 

     b) we have a trade down available at 4/8 take it. Clingan goes #3, Sarr off board. Take best player available from list, take best big available left at 8 (depends on his slotting on our board).
3) We have a trade for Trae, getting 2 of our picks (25/27) back and 8. Going into rebuild mode. Dump long salary (Hunter/OO) then
     a) take Sarr 1, take bpa at 8. Decide if Sarr is the real deal during the course of the year, use our pick and Sacs next year to adjust.  Build around JJ/DJM/Bufkin, trade expiring Clint at Deadline.

But there are contingency mock ups that have us taking 3 different players at #1 and at least 8 other people in possible trade downs.  For example (I can talk about this), if Nikola Topic falls far enough due to his injury, there is a contingency for us to trade back in and select him late in the 1st.

That's the contingency board work up.  You scenario each board based on incoming pick trade options, outgoing player options and surprise pick/falls in the draft.  There are really good guys working in the front offices and there is usually a mock in the contingencies that nails the first 15+ picks and they never say what the "expert" mocks say.  Yes I know that in some of the contingencies, Edey is a part of the contingencies. If it wasn't so, I wouldn't have talked about it.  Anyone saying "the pick is" the last 6 weeks or saying "Edey is going to team X outside the lottery" is a liar and the truth is not in him. He'd have no way of knowing.

No, I am not at liberty to talk right now because the first shoe hasn't dropped. Nor do I want to say much. It hasn't been a good value proposition for me to come out of hiding on this and I'm uncomfortable with the attention.  Kind of soured on the whole thing.

Makes sense, which is why ideally we can get deals done before the draft to better understand our holes.  Lots of feasible permutations of our roster come October that would make this offseason a big success.

[Afro]

6 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

With this draft being a crapshoot, I like the idea of more bites of the apple

Especially now that we're 4 days away and someone still hasn't seperated. 

That's the part that's concerning me. The media as a whole couldn't find a single dude to pull out from the pack. There's not even close to a consensus "well there's not 1 elite guy, but there's definitely a group that is above the rest"  either. 

Sarr/Duffy definitely threw a wrench in that Tbf, but even before that, after months everyone was still just throwing their hands up and shrugging. 

[deester11]

54 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Finally somebody gets it.  Who TF cares who we draft?  The trades are where we move the needle this cycle.  Draft pick, whoever TF it is, will be in College Park or a backup most of the season.

This was true when we were at #10 and it's still true now that we're at #1.

All the infighting and gnashing of teeth is useless.  Yall out here fighting over the eventual 9th or 10th man in the rotation. 

Wait..I've said this 100 damn times.  

[AHF]

I still care a lot who we draft.  I just don’t expect that player to contribute a ton next year.  I’m sure glad we took JJ but he made zero difference for two years.

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I still care a lot who we draft.  I just don’t expect that player to contribute a ton next year.  I’m sure glad we took JJ but he made zero difference for two years.

True but JJ wasn’t the first pick. With the first pick there should be some expectations that dude will spend a lot of time with the big boys and not in the G league.