2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[warcore]

33 minutes ago, KB21 said:

 

Reed is an obvious pick for HOU to me. That's the only pick where one can just rationalize the pick based on what they need and his skillset. I like him. 

[AtLaS]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Which trade would you prefer?

 

Rockets:

DJ, AJ, CC for #3, Cam Whitmore, Jalen Green, Steven Adams

 

Spurs: 

DJ for #4, Keldon Johnson, 2025 Hawks pick back.

 

Add remove players as needed for salary matching or other options.

Um Rockets trade of course.  But why the heck would they make that trade?

There is zero chance they are giving up Whitmore, AND the #3 pick?  

[Hawkish]

2 minutes ago, warcore said:

Reed is an obvious pick for HOU to me. That's the only pick where one can just rationalize the pick based on what they need and his skillset. I like him. 

Is he that much of a better fit next to FVV and Green?

[JeffS17]

Why would the Spurs trade up? For Sarr?  Feels way too redundant with Wemby so Im guessing they want Risacher.  But if its true we want Clingan and Sarr goes to WAS, and Reed goes to HOU, why would they move up?

We must have other legitimate offers for #1 that would shake up the board.  Or what I feel is even more likely is we are using the Spurs for leverage.  Feels like our FO is close with them and they are constantly in rumors with us for that reason (like the DJ back to the Spurs nonsense).

[bleachkit]

I wonder if we could swing a trade with Houston. 1 for 3. 

[thecampster]

During the 2019 draft thread, I posted 3 pick value charts with similar values. this is Pelton's.

http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2
 

We own #1 worth 100 points.

 

4+8 = 107.75 points

7+14 = 83 points.

 

Future firsts are project ranges and the lowest of the range is used for value.

So to those wondering why we haven't made the SA trade yet, 4+8 is slightly overvalued for 1.  SA would only do this if they overvalued a player who would go in the top 3 and this is the best deal they could get since Atlanta holds the cards here. If its Atlanta pushing to move down, they'd have to add value to the deal for it to be considered even, something in the area of pick 35, a second rounder. We do not have a second rounder this year.

To those wondering why no deal with Portland:  Portland's deal is undervalued by a 3rd 1st rounder in the 25 range. Portland would typically have to offer something to the Hawks to sweeten the deal since Atlanta holds the cards.

 

But as you can see, even 4 #20 picks don't quite = 1 first.  But in a crapshoot year draft, what is that 1sts value really?

1	4000	100.00
2	3100	77.50
3	2670	66.75
4	2410	60.25
5	2240	56.00
6	2110	52.75
7	2000	50.00
8	1910	47.75
9	1830	45.75
10	1720	43.00
11	1600	40.00
12	1500	37.50
13	1400	35.00
14	1320	33.00
15	1240	31.00
16	1180	29.50
17	1130	28.25
18	1080	27.00
19	1030	25.75
20	980	24.50
21	920	23.00
22	860	21.50
23	800	20.00
24	750	18.75
25	700	17.50
26	660	16.50
27	620	15.50
28	570	14.25
29	520	13.00
30	470	11.75

 

[BangHolman]

22 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Why would the Spurs trade up? For Sarr?  Feels way too redundant with Wemby so Im guessing they want Risacher.  But if its true we want Clingan and Sarr goes to WAS, and Reed goes to HOU, why would they move up?

We must have other legitimate offers for #1 that would shake up the board.  Or what I feel is even more likely is we are using the Spurs for leverage.  Feels like our FO is close with them and they are constantly in rumors with us for that reason (like the DJ back to the Spurs nonsense).

What stops us from taking Risacher and forcing them to trade #4 (Clingan) and more for him? It's what we did with Luka essentially, for better or worse 

[AtLaS]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

I don’t.  Still too small.

I agree, I really just want Sarr.  Or I guess Clingan if we trade down and hope he can improve his jumper and stay healthy.  Both are huge asks IMO.  Unless Reed becomes a full-time PG he will always be a tough fit.  But I am 100% sold on Sarr, his talent and his work ethic.  I hope I am dead wrong on him b/c it looks like aren't going to take him.

 

It is weird though some of the teams that went deep in the playoffs were very small. 

See Boston (Tatum starts at PF) and NYK (Hart started at PF), Knicks were easily a conference finals team without OG going down, even with all the other injuries. Indy is pretty small too.

Not that I'm trying to replicate that but it's crazy how they get away with it.  Boston I can see b/c they are so talented at all 5 positions and can all shoot.  But NYK was starting Josh Hart (6'4") at PF.  I know Randle is the normal starter but still crazy to me.  Those teams just have much tougher players I guess.

This is why I want a 5 that can shoot, to unlock Trae even more.  He's never going to be as efficient as he can be with a lane clogger at the 5. 

 

Edited June 23 by AtLaS

[Hawkmoor]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

Meanwhile the Spurs can have their new revised version of French Connection St-Eiffel Twin Towers .  

One thing I do know, is we have no idea who the Spurs are taking if they move up to #1.

 

And there we are.  I wasn't even aware of that rumor of Sarr to San Antonio.  I just guessed it based on the tea leaves, how the NBA works and what I know the Hawks would do.  They have set this up beautifully.  If its Sarr, then San Antonio will just give the Hawks back those picks or a approximation of it, and move on with Sarr and Wemby.  

Edited June 23 by Hawkmoor

[warcore]

42 minutes ago, Hawkish said:

Is he that much of a better fit next to FVV and Green?

Do you actually think they see FVV as part of their future? No -- they had a wad of cap to blow on a veteran to be a stop gap until their youngins are ready. And yes he fits great with Green.  

[JustSomeGuy]

Has Sarr still not worked out for us? At this point it feels like the smoke between Atlanta and other prospects is just as much a function of his team not wanting to be here.

[thecampster]

One last cautionary (French) tale - Sekou Doumbouya.

 

In the 2019 draft, Doumbouya was getting lots of love and was projected to go between 7-12 in the lottery. When he dropped to 15, it was considered great value.  He was considered a raw talent with impressive upside.  He's out of the league now trying to revive his career in France.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/sekou-doumbo

 

 

 

[ShooterSays]

Alright SA and WSH...who wants Sarr at #1? Hit us with your best offers.

[warcore]

5 minutes ago, ShooterSays said:

Alright SA and WSH...who wants Sarr at #1? Hit us with your best offers.

Thank you. Please take Sarr and hold him hostage.  

[terrell]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Which trade would you prefer?

 

Rockets:

DJ, AJ, CC for #3, Cam Whitmore, Jalen Green, Steven Adams

 

Spurs: 

DJ for #4, Keldon Johnson, 2025 Hawks pick back.

 

Add remove players as needed for salary matching or other options.

Spurs because the Rockets would hang up the phone....

[ShooterSays]

Just now, warcore said:

Thank you. Please take Sarr and hold him hostage.  

Yep and worst case scenario...you get Sarr lol

[sturt]

5 hours ago, kg01 said:

Or it means we don't even know what TF we're doing.  Based on history, which option fits us best?

Maybe if Landry isn't yet a Jerry West, maybe he can just be in a really really good intimate relationship with Lady Luck. Maybe he can get the roster back to postseason 2020-21 status. He's a Stanford kid, and my wife says he's easy on her eyes... so maybe he can just be that seductive to the Lady.

That's the realistic dream.

 

But of course... you know me... I'm just here to encourage one and all, just don't let yourself dream past that.

Next time the Hawks are at what is the equivalent of Everest Camp IV... the place from which to launch an assault on the summit... the mastermind/financier is going to be especially hard to orient and to be won over to the idea that you're at Camp IV, not Camp III.

So, just be lucid to the extreme likelihood that he's not going to be inclined to shell out the money for anything beyond the resources that got you that far, claiming he's been fooled before, and he just needs to wait to be certain.

Who knows, maybe he'll be right about that, just to be fair. But he might be wrong, too, and knowing that his highest priority is to end the trek with black ink, and that summitting is a secondary priority, a possible means to that end, he comes to that decision biased to his own self-interest, not our interest as fans.

And if someway somehow the mastermind's behaviors show he's a new man, converted to be one of us... True to ATL legitimately, not just as a throwaway marketing line... maybe the ultimate dream occurs down the road, And maybe you will have been among those who forced him to re-think his current priorities by being among those who declined to support what is, for now, primarily an ATM machine to him.

It will just be that much sweeter because you only invested yourself psychologically at that point that the ultimate, in fact, did become realistic... that the summit was both within view, and that the mastermind/financier was all-in, as eager to get there as any of the rest of us.

Maybe. Don't bet tomorrow's lunch on it, let alone next month's house payment on it, just based on the last 8 years and all the evidence we have...

But maybe, who knows.

[Hawkish]

27 minutes ago, warcore said:

Do you actually think they see FVV as part of their future? No -- they had a wad of cap to blow on a veteran to be a stop gap until their youngins are ready. And yes he fits great with Green.  

I don’t.  I didn’t realize Green was a larger, more defensive player.  I’ll have to check him out.  I thought he was a smaller chucker of a scoring guard.  

[thecampster]

3 minutes ago, JustSomeGuy said:

Has Sarr still not worked out for us? At this point it feels like the smoke between Atlanta and other prospects is just as much a function of his team not wanting to be here.

We are close enough to the draft I can reveal a little something here.

There have been a lot of players trying to direct where they go this season, only choosing to workout for a handful of teams.  Sarr is one of them.  Sarr believes he can direct where he goes and he wants to go somewhere he has a chance to start, develop offensively. He has zero desire to go the g-league. He has openly rejected offers to workout from most NBA teams. His goal seems to be inflated stats to set up the highest possible 2nd contract.

Another Example of this is Edey who has limited his workouts as well....But Camp, I thought you were high on Edey....I am but there is one thing that's given me pause and I've talked about it privately with a few others on the board.  As of right now, he has only officially worked out for 9 teams, 8 of which were playoff teams last year. Unlike Sarr, Edey seems to be focused on his marketability and earning endorsements. He's limited his workouts to teams where he can maximize what will be the Edey brand.  Most NBA picks don't make huge salaries their first few years (top 5 picks excluded) but if their brand is huge (Edey's is) and they perform well, they can get much bigger endorsement deals, in select markets, as their rookie contract.  Slipping 5 slots but going to a contender with open Center minutes could be 15-20 million in endorsements for a player like Edey. It's a very different strategy than Sarr's.  Unlike most picks, Edey could not partake in NIL money and is less secure going in to the draft than other top picks who played in college and got NIL money or already earned pro salary elsewhere.  Just a weird dynamic from the Edey camp.  I've been told if he was open to workouts he could possibly go in the top 5, but his camp prefers to go to a winning team with center minutes available and not a rebuild situation where he'd be expected to start and carry a heavy load. Because of 2 big, established center salaries in Atlanta, that makes it a non-starter.  The whole above bothers me a good bit, but not enough for me not to support trading down to pick him.

 

Its a complicated year.

[AtLaS]

It's crazy to me that Ware has gotten no love from us.  Legit 7'0", 9'4.5" standing reach, 36" vertical, shot 40% from 3 and can catch lobs all day long.  

Is he just an awful defender?  Or is he dropping that far because he is a bad screener?  

Mid first round is crazy to me for a prospect like that.