2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[thecampster]

Just now, AtLaS said:

It's crazy to me that Ware has gotten no love from us.  Legit 7'0", 9'4.5" standing reach, 36" vertical, shot 40% from 3 and can catch lobs all day long.  

Is he just an awful defender?  Or is he dropping that far because he is a bad screener?  

Mid first round is crazy to me for a prospect like that.

He did great against people smaller than him, struggled against bigger body centers, got dusted by Edey and in a bad way.

[KB21]

1 minute ago, AtLaS said:

It's crazy to me that Ware has gotten no love from us.  Legit 7'0", 9'4.5" standing reach, 36" vertical, shot 40% from 3 and can catch lobs all day long.  

Is he just an awful defender?  Or is he dropping that far because he is a bad screener?  

Mid first round is crazy to me for a prospect like that.

His talent isn’t the issue.  His work ethic and effort at times is the issue.  

[NekiEcko]

15 minutes ago, thecampster said:

We are close enough to the draft I can reveal a little something here.

There have been a lot of players trying to direct where they go this season, only choosing to workout for a handful of teams.  Sarr is one of them.  Sarr believes he can direct where he goes and he wants to go somewhere he has a chance to start, develop offensively. He has zero desire to go the g-league. He has openly rejected offers to workout from most NBA teams. His goal seems to be inflated stats to set up the highest possible 2nd contract.

Another Example of this is Edey who has limited his workouts as well....But Camp, I thought you were high on Edey....I am but there is one thing that's given me pause and I've talked about it privately with a few others on the board.  As of right now, he has only officially worked out for 9 teams, 8 of which were playoff teams last year. Unlike Sarr, Edey seems to be focused on his marketability and earning endorsements. He's limited his workouts to teams where he can maximize what will be the Edey brand.  Most NBA picks don't make huge salaries their first few years (top 5 picks excluded) but if their brand is huge (Edey's is) and they perform well, they can get much bigger endorsement deals, in select markets, as their rookie contract.  Slipping 5 slots but going to a contender with open Center minutes could be 15-20 million in endorsements for a player like Edey. It's a very different strategy than Sarr's.  Unlike most picks, Edey could not partake in NIL money and is less secure going in to the draft than other top picks who played in college and got NIL money or already earned pro salary elsewhere.  Just a weird dynamic from the Edey camp.  I've been told if he was open to workouts he could possibly go in the top 5, but his camp prefers to go to a winning team with center minutes available and not a rebuild situation where he'd be expected to start and carry a heavy load. Because of 2 big, established center salaries in Atlanta, that makes it a non-starter.  The whole above bothers me a good bit, but not enough for me not to support trading down to pick him.

 

Its a complicated year.

Indeed, it's important to consider the current situation of each team. Sarr is unlikely to receive many minutes here since our focus is on winning now, as opposed to teams like the Spurs, Wizards, and Pistons who are in rebuilding mode and can afford to properly develop their players and give them substantial time on the court.

But also, it determines about what moves this team does before the draft.  @thecampster flow chart from yesterday can be a good reference guide that.  So, the next few days is going to be insane so buck up and see what this FO going to do.

[terrell]

Robinson and Sarr frontcourt?

 

[phoostal]

36 minutes ago, thecampster said:

We are close enough to the draft I can reveal a little something here.

There have been a lot of players trying to direct where they go this season, only choosing to workout for a handful of teams.  Sarr is one of them.  Sarr believes he can direct where he goes and he wants to go somewhere he has a chance to start, develop offensively. He has zero desire to go the g-league. He has openly rejected offers to workout from most NBA teams. His goal seems to be inflated stats to set up the highest possible 2nd contract.

Another Example of this is Edey who has limited his workouts as well....But Camp, I thought you were high on Edey....I am but there is one thing that's given me pause and I've talked about it privately with a few others on the board.  As of right now, he has only officially worked out for 9 teams, 8 of which were playoff teams last year. Unlike Sarr, Edey seems to be focused on his marketability and earning endorsements. He's limited his workouts to teams where he can maximize what will be the Edey brand.  Most NBA picks don't make huge salaries their first few years (top 5 picks excluded) but if their brand is huge (Edey's is) and they perform well, they can get much bigger endorsement deals, in select markets, as their rookie contract.  Slipping 5 slots but going to a contender with open Center minutes could be 15-20 million in endorsements for a player like Edey. It's a very different strategy than Sarr's.  Unlike most picks, Edey could not partake in NIL money and is less secure going in to the draft than other top picks who played in college and got NIL money or already earned pro salary elsewhere.  Just a weird dynamic from the Edey camp.  I've been told if he was open to workouts he could possibly go in the top 5, but his camp prefers to go to a winning team with center minutes available and not a rebuild situation where he'd be expected to start and carry a heavy load. Because of 2 big, established center salaries in Atlanta, that makes it a non-starter.  The whole above bothers me a good bit, but not enough for me not to support trading down to pick him.

 

Its a complicated year.

As a guy that would like Sarr to be drafted by the hawks this gives me red flags.   To the point I would in another direction.   More about himself then team. 

[JTB]

9 minutes ago, phoostal said:

As a guy that would like Sarr to be drafted by the hawks this gives me red flags.   To the point I would in another direction.   More about himself then team. 

Yeah and also hearing the news about Edey from @thecampster isn’t good.

I’m fully team Clingan at this point 

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, phoostal said:

As a guy that would like Sarr to be drafted by the hawks this gives me red flags.   To the point I would in another direction.   More about himself then team. 

Bear in mind this was the same reason that Tatum didn't want to go to the Celtics.  He said he wanted to get buckets right away and feared he wouldn't get the opportunity with the depth they already had on the roster.

[phoostal]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Bear in mind this was the same reason that Tatum didn't want to go to the Celtics.  He said he wanted to get buckets right away and feared he wouldn't get the opportunity with the depth they already had on the roster.

I hear you and could it work, yes.   

 

But to not be willing to develop and to expect a starting job along with being above going to the G league isn't a good look in my mind.

 

Most of our young guys have been in the G league and it's been beneficial to their development. 

 

At this point I'm not feeling strong about any prospect now.   I'm at the point of whatever just show me the moves you're going to make with the current roster and whoever you draft is just part of the mix. 

[bleachkit]

Does anyone have ESPN insider? Kevin Pelton posted his top 30. His analysis is strictly data driven.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40394709/nba-draft-2024-pelton-updated-top-30-prospects

[AHF]

1 minute ago, phoostal said:

I hear you and could it work, yes.   

 

But to not be willing to develop and to expect a starting job along with being above going to the G league isn't a good look in my mind.

 

Most of our young guys have been in the G league and it's been beneficial to their development. 

 

At this point I'm not feeling strong about any prospect now.   I'm at the point of whatever just show me the moves you're going to make with the current roster and whoever you draft is just part of the mix. 

I don't get the sense that he is unwilling to develop.  To the contrary, to the extent any of this can be believed my read would be that his team think the best way for him to develop would be a low pressure environment where he could be challenged and progress more early in his career.  The fact that our last couple draft picks haven't even gotten on the floor probably hasn't gone unnoticed.

In the 2023 draft, 19 players played 1000 minutes or more as rookies.  33 players played 64% or more minutes than Bufkin did.  Bufkin played 196 minutes.  

Our top pick from the 2022 draft got run as a rookie but last year played even less than Bufkin with a total of 171 minutes.

Our top pick from the 2021 draft played 120 minutes as a rookie and spotty minutes at best until late in his second year.

 

If you are an agent who believes players learn best by facing off against NBA competition, we might be public enemy #1 to your client.  And most teams at the top of the draft take that approach.  What we did with Bufkin last year was not normal at all.

[phoostal]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't get the sense that he is unwilling to develop.  To the contrary, to the extent any of this can be believed my read would be that his team think the best way for him to develop would be a low pressure environment where he could be challenged and progress more early in his career.  The fact that our last couple draft picks haven't even gotten on the floor probably hasn't gone unnoticed.

In the 2023 draft, 19 players played 1000 minutes or more as rookies.  33 players played 64% or more minutes than Bufkin did.  Bufkin played 196 minutes.  

Our top pick from the 2022 draft got run as a rookie but last year played even less than Bufkin with a total of 171 minutes.

Our top pick from the 2021 draft played 120 minutes as a rookie and spotty minutes at best until late in his second year.

 

If you are an agent who believes players learn best by facing off against NBA competition, we might be public enemy #1 to your client.  And most teams at the top of the draft take that approach.  What we did with Bufkin last year was not normal at all.

It seem to work for JJ and he's going to get a big second contract.   Atlanta should be saying this to all those agents trying to push this agenda. 

[txsting]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Why would the Spurs trade up? For Sarr?  Feels way too redundant with Wemby so Im guessing they want Risacher.  But if its true we want Clingan and Sarr goes to WAS, and Reed goes to HOU, why would they move up?

We must have other legitimate offers for #1 that would shake up the board.  Or what I feel is even more likely is we are using the Spurs for leverage.  Feels like our FO is close with them and they are constantly in rumors with us for that reason (like the DJ back to the Spurs nonsense).

This is why we leak Risacher.   If the spurs want him they have to deal with us or call our bluff and hope we settle for Clingan at 1.

[KB21]

 

[NBASupes]

37 minutes ago, KB21 said:

 

[Nice post, KB!]

[pro9wu]

53 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Does anyone have ESPN insider? Kevin Pelton posted his top 30. His analysis is strictly data driven.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40394709/nba-draft-2024-pelton-updated-top-30-prospects

I do! Here's the list:

1. Reed Sheppard

2. Donovan Clingan

3. Alexandre Sarr

4. Zach Edey

5. Johnny Furphy

6. Ja'Kobe Walter

7. Zaccharie Risacher

8. Jared McCain

9. Kyshawn George

10. Stephon Castle

11. Rob Dillingham

12. Cam Christie

13. Devin Carter

14. Tidjane Salaun

15. Carlton Carrington

16. Matas Buzelis

17. Kyle Filipowski

18. Nikola Topic

19. Ryan Dunn

20. Ron Holland II

21. Baylor Scheierman

22. Jaylen Wells

23. Yves Missi

24. Tyler Smith

25. Jalen Bridges

26. Isaiah Collier

27. Justin Edwards

28. Jaylon Tyson

29. Kel'El Ware

30. Cody Williams

 

[AHF]

56 minutes ago, phoostal said:

It seem to work for JJ and he's going to get a big second contract.   Atlanta should be saying this to all those agents trying to push this agenda. 

It has seemed to work for JJ.  Whether he will get as big a contract as he would have had he played big minutes earlier in his career is a mix of TBD and best guessing.  

However, in addition to it not being the normal development path, any player who wants endorsements should view the JJ approach as suicidal to those efforts.  It is also suicidal to winning ROY or being on the all-rookie teams (JJ was not a participant either his rookie season or his sophmore season).  I think very reasonable minds can at least differ on whether their client is best served by playing in the G-League after being picked #1 overall and that disagreement on this point is not necessarily a sign of selfishness or a refusal to develop.

[Afro]

57 minutes ago, phoostal said:

It seem to work for JJ and he's going to get a big second contract.   Atlanta should be saying this to all those agents trying to push this agenda. 

Tbf though, JJ is eligible for an extension but the conversation is "do we give him a huge deal after one year of production? Or do we meet somewhere in the middle?" 

JJ seems best case scenario for most 15+ picks, but his I could easily see how agents would say it still cost him money. 

 

[phoostal]

1 minute ago, Afro said:

Tbf though, JJ is eligible for an extension but the conversation is "do we give him a huge deal after one year of production? Or do we meet somewhere in the middle?" 

JJ seems best case scenario for most 15+ picks, but his I could easily see how agents would say it still cost him money. 

 

He'll probably at least get 25 million a year so are we going to be saying man he got screwed by developing

[Afro]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

It has seemed to work for JJ.  Whether he will get as big a contract as he would have had he played big minutes earlier in his career is a mix of TBD and best guessing.  

However, in addition to it not being the normal development path, any player who wants endorsements should view the JJ approach as suicidal to those efforts.  It is also suicidal to winning ROY or being on the all-rookie teams (JJ was not a participant either his rookie season or his sophmore season).  I think very reasonable minds can at least differ on whether their client is best served by playing in the G-League after being picked #1 overall and that disagreement on this point is not necessarily a sign of selfishness or a refusal to develop.

This is all a very good line of argument. I hadnt really thought about that. 

Whether our young guys MPG is good for their development doesn't really matter. No draft eligible guy is going to *want* to do that. Well, at least lottery guys. 

[ShooterSays]

13 minutes ago, pro9wu said:

Here's the list:

A top 30 list with no Dalton Knecht is just disrespectful. BSPN at it again.