Hawks looking to trade

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

You or I have no idea what the picks are and what the players become. Taking a worst case scenario approach that they can't hit the pick or get the worst ones makes no sense to me. Evaluating grimes for a player he is in New York when its a different situation and role he'd play here makes no sense (imagine the celtics said we don't want derrick white cause he's not great in his role in San antonio). Good teams buy low...

Hawks granted it was Schlenk absolutely nailed the picks 18-20 with Huerter, JC, and Jalen but yeah Im sure we are guaranteed Anthony morrow or Mike Muscala. They overpaid for a barely top 60 player and now they gonna get slightly less than the actual market value for this player. Thats what happens when you put your chips and bet wrong. and like I said in previous quote the deal I heard is a different player for 1 less pick with clint in the deal. Clint has zero value. Absolutely zero. They will get off him in a deal with DJM if they want

No. 

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So we are devaluing the Murray return we can get by including Clint's money.

Exactly, Clint is still productive. He ain't as productive as he used to be but he's still productive and helps us win. Whereas we got DFS and the Nets saying they want two 1sts. Landry needs to be fired for not nipping the rubbish in the butt. A big part of his job is to make the fanbase feel like progress is taking place. It's not and the rumors just crush fan morale. 

 

Fire Landry Fields

 

I'll rather a delusional GM like Ainge and Masai than a gullible idiot like Landry. He moves like he graduated from Everest than someone who graduated from Stanford. 

Edited January 19 by NBASupes

[theheroatl]

Literally nothing real has surfaced and y’all been off the deep end for a minute

 

get the pitchforks out for everyone when not a single damn trade has been made lmao

Edited January 19 by theheroatl

[NBASupes]

I want to hear rumors that Hawks aren't trading Dre for less than two unprotected 1st. Is that shit gonna happen, no but feel like they are letting teams know, ain't no sale in Atlanta. 

 

Letting these trash rumors fester is how you lose the support of your fanbase. ASG learned the hard way. 

Edited January 19 by NBASupes

[Jody23]

12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

If it included Clint it also means that Robinson would be included to make the money work.

If that happened, the Hawks would sit Robinson for the rest of the season to tank.  A second half tank might REALLY aggravate Trae.

[Sothron]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

That was the deal I heard very early in the sweepstakes. AJ wasn't mentioned to me at the time. Definitely think something like this is could happen but they are actually the team I mentioned the other day that was back in and the deal was different then this. It also included clint

this is what I have heard as well. capela was included in this proposed scenario not AJ. hawks want Grimes and that interest is very real.

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

I want to hear rumors that Hawks aren't trading Dre for less than two unprotected 1st. Is that shit gonna happen, no but feel like they are letting teams know, ain't no sale in Atlanta. 

Don't disagree with you here.  You put that stuff out enough times and it just sets the stage for any negotiation.  Then you end up in a reasonable place and not fleeced.  Masai just got 3 firsts for Siakam, an expiring, who wants to get paid massive money that will make roster flexibility hell.  He got that by being stingy as hell, not by fire selling his squad and rushing a trade.  We gotta be patient, I don't care how bad Murray wants to be on a contender, or his agent/Klutch, or anything else.  You gotta know his value and hold out until someone is willing to pay fair value.

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

I seriously question how much value you guys think DJM is worth. In what world is 3 assets in grimes and two firsts a bad package. You are not getting a better player than Murray back in a Murray deal. They aren't trying to win this season...stop trying to make trades with that objective in mind

No one cares about trying to win this season.  We care about being in a position to win next season and beyond, when we don't have our picks.  Grimes is not a needle mover, and @AHF is showing you the expected value of late firsts -- obviously there are exceptions, to the upside AND to the downside.  It's more likely both of those picks are useless than it is we find another JJ.  Even the ones we thought we hit on (Heurter/Collins) aren't really panning out.  Heurter can barely stay in the rotation and JC is just a below average starter (overpaid is separate issue).

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, Mikey said:

You or I have no idea what the picks are and what the players become. Taking a worst case scenario approach that they can't hit the pick or get the worst ones makes no sense to me. Evaluating grimes for a player he is in New York when its a different situation and role he'd play here makes no sense (imagine the celtics said we don't want derrick white cause he's not great in his role in San antonio). Good teams buy low...

Hawks granted it was Schlenk absolutely nailed the picks 18-20 with Huerter, JC, and Jalen but yeah Im sure we are guaranteed Anthony morrow or Mike Muscala. They overpaid for a barely top 60 player and now they gonna get slightly less than the actual market value for this player. Thats what happens when you put your chips and bet wrong. and like I said in previous quote the deal I heard is a different player for 1 less pick with clint in the deal. Clint has zero value. Absolutely zero. They will get off him in a deal with DJM if they want

I am having a hard time responding to this because there is so much in here that is based incorrect assumptions.  I'll assume you are being serious and not trying to troll me and respond in kind.

Quote

You or I have no idea what the picks are and what the players become.

We do know the average value from players picked at that point in the draft historically.  That is the best information on how to value those picks.  Pretending like the data says something different  is an approach a bad front office would take.  I hope the Hawks aren't going to lean into optimism and ignorance.

Quote

Taking a worst case scenario approach that they can't hit the pick or get the worst ones makes no sense to me.

This suggests to me you might not understand the data.  I didn't take a worst case scenario.  I took above average scenarios.  A prior 82 game study found that 65% of players drafted with the #22 pick don't even make the rotation.  I picked players who had career results above the average results and were rotation players.  Your post says that I am taking a worst case scenario but that is not the case at all.  I am taking the data and then taking results that are above average.

Quote

Hawks granted it was Schlenk absolutely nailed the picks 18-20 with Huerter, JC, and Jalen but yeah Im sure we are guaranteed Anthony morrow or Mike Muscala.

This is trying my patience.  I expressly noted above that there are no guarantees and that there is volatility and variability with the actual results of picks.  Accusing me of saying that we are "guaranteed" anything is a bad faith response to my post.  The data takes into account both the hits and the failures.  As you somewhat note Travis Schlenk was an extreme outlier in terms of his ability to derive value from later picks.  An extreme outlier.  With a nod to Rick Pitino, Travis Schlenk isn't walking through that door and we don't have any evidence that Landry Fields can consistently and significantly outperform the historically norms for returns for these types of picks.  Again, the data  I posted reflects ALL players picked at that  point in the draft.  If you are counting on finding an All-Star with a pick in this range it could happen but you are betting on a low % outcome.

Quote

Evaluating grimes for a player he is in New York when its a different situation and role he'd play here makes no sense (imagine the celtics said we don't want derrick white cause he's not great in his role in San antonio). Good teams buy low...

This is much more fair than that above notes.  But realize what you just said.  "Good teams buy low."  Dejounte Murray for lower value picks and Grimes is not buying low because we are paying a high price.  Buying low doesn't mean paying a lot for someone when their stock is down.  It means paying a low price for that player when their stock is down.

Also, bear in mind that White's performance in SA was a pretty good indicator for what he would do in Boston.  

White

SA 2020-21 15.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.5 APG, 0.7 SPG, 1.0 BPG

SA 2021-22  14.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.9 BPG

BOS 2023-24 15.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG

So you are counting on something very different happening with Grimes.  What are your Grimes projections in Atlanta that make Dejoune Murray for a couple late picks and Grimes a "buy low" for Atlanta?

[Sothron]

I don't think anyone will be happy with the return for Murray. If you think Grimes and two firsts is bad the lakers trade that @thecampster has heard from his source is far worse. There isn't even a playable guy for our rotation in that trade. Rui and Dlo? God no. At least Grimes is a legit two way player and POA defender.

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I don't think anyone will be happy with the return for Murray. If you think Grimes and two firsts is bad the lakers trade that @thecampster has heard from his source is far worse. There isn't even a playable guy for our rotation in that trade. Rui and Dlo? God no. At least Grimes is a legit two way player and POA defender.

I heard all of them and they are all awful and horrendous. All of them. It's not even close. The only thing that gives me courage is Landry is saying he wants put a 3rd star around Trae and JJ to teams when they ask whats his long term plan. So that means he has an end goal but none of these rumors get us anywhere close

Edited January 19 by NBASupes

[BangHolman]

Grimes would be a better fit next to Trae than Murray, so I can see why Grimes and 2 FRPs would be something to think about. My biggest hang up is helping the Knicks. F them.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, BangHolman said:

Grimes would be a better fit next to Trae than Murray, so I can see why Grimes and 2 FRPs would be something to think about. My biggest hang up is helping the Knicks. F them.

It's way worse than the Lakers deal. Way worse. The 2029 is unprotected from LA. Just that alone is way better than anything NY mention. NY is not a serious team.

I've heard all of the deals, even the ones that aren't being mentioned here. All are bad. NY just happens to be the worst. 

Edited January 19 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

Food for thought. 

 

Trae is taking nearly 35% of the cap. Hawks don't have a path to add another star without trading for one. 

[Diesel]

19 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

Literally nothing real has surfaced and y’all been off the deep end for a minute

 

get the pitchforks out for everyone when not a single damn trade has been made lmao

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I don't think anyone will be happy with the return for Murray. If you think Grimes and two firsts is bad the lakers trade that @thecampster has heard from his source is far worse. There isn't even a playable guy for our rotation in that trade. Rui and Dlo? God no. At least Grimes is a legit two way player and POA defender.

If we are going down this path just rip off the band aid and trade DM and Trae Young to get your picks back from SA and whatever else you can get.  There is no future for Trae Young in Atlanta if this is the path we are going.  Future firsts don't help you retain Trae Young just like the future first we got from the Huerter trade doesn't help the 2023-24 Atlanta Hawks win games.

The relevant time frame for outcome for this trade is the next two years before Trae's opt out comes up.  We need to be hearing about things that make the team better next year than we are now.  I'm not hearing that at all.  We need to be more competitive next year than we are today.  

The rumor of DM + CC = Grimes and a future first is a complete joke if your goal is to retain and maximize the Trae Young era.  That is my priority.  If the front office pursues this kind of trade and doesn't flip the picks for star players (lol at any team being dumb enough to trade a star for that kind of return) then I am just going to assume they are knowingly choosing to head to a full rebuild and are just delaying announcing that so they can keep ticket sales as high as possible for as long as Trae is still with the team.  Because they can't do that and be serious about winning.

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I heard all of them and they are all awful and horrendous. All of them. It's not even close. The only thing that gives me courage is Landry is saying he wants put a 3rd star around Trae and JJ to teams when they ask whats his long term plan. So that means he has an end goal but none of these rumors get us anywhere close

I can't like this post enough.  These rumors cannot be serious if the end goal is to put a third star around Trae and JJ.  And I think that is the only end goal that makes any sense.  So I'm assuming there is bad information going around and Fields has an end goal in mind that adds that third star next year and so the focus should be on what sequence of deals puts us in best position to add that third foundational player.

[Dean Walker]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

I can't like this post enough.  These rumors cannot be serious if the end goal is to put a third star around Trae and JJ.  And I think that is the only end goal that makes any sense.  So I'm assuming there is bad information going around and Fields has an end goal in mind that adds that third star next year and so the focus should be on what sequence of deals puts us in best position to add that third foundational player.

3rd star????

i love jj but can he prove something first before we call him a star?!

 

[ABH]

It's make it or break it...I wait if no good deals come up..no way I would trade to NY or Lakers..go after someone even if it LaVine..gotta do something or this fanbase will leave and I'm one of them..it's like we just end up helping all these other teams but and we always end up getting lowballed..F this Fo if they don't hold tight

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Dean Walker said:

3rd star????

i love jj but can he prove something first before we call him a star?!

 

Use whatever word you want.  I agree he isn't a star today.  I do think he shows potential.  

For my post, I used the phrase "foundational piece."  To me the key is that we need to end up adding a star talent to the roster as a result of our transactions and the plan can't be "let's hope we get really, really lucky with our mid to late first round picks."

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, Dean Walker said:

3rd star????

i love jj but can he prove something first before we call him a star?!

 

I agree but Atlanta is selling him as a star to others around the league.