Zach Edey Conundrum - Could Edey be the next great Atlanta Hawk or is he the next Cam Reddish

[marco102]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

I hate being right and we are still stuck in crap

We can all agree on that.  I'm jut hoping they make those small roster moves to bring on pieces that fit well offensively and defensively.

[thecampster]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Everyone but Luka, Trae, JJJ, and SGA.  

Bagley was rated higher (think about this), you're saying he's going to be better than Sexton, Bridges, Ayton and Carter Jr.  Ayton has had an 18/11 season, Carter Jr 15/10, Bridges a 26 ppg season, Sexton a 24 ppg season.

Now assuming good faith, you're placing him as the 5th pick in that draft, just moving the 4 players above ahead of him, that makes him the 9th pick (he's showing nothing that shows he'll be a + rebounder).  Reasonable analysis would show him to be a top 15 pick at best if he was in the 2018 draft.  I'm not spending a #1 pick on a player who is only considered as the #1 pick based on year he's drafted, not talent. 

I would trade out of this top pick faster than I could drive a Model Y.  If the class is so weak that a player who might not get picked in the lottery some years is the top pick, you trade down for a lower risk position dollar wise and take the highest floor player. Save this good fortune for a better year.

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, marco102 said:

@NBASupes this is off topic, but you were right about Gobert! Gotta give props where they are due. I still wouldn't have given up that haul for him though, but it's paying off for Minnesota.  They've built that roster out well. 

I advocated heavily for picking up Gobert but like you said the price ended up way too high.

[marco102]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Bagley was rated higher (think about this), you're saying he's going to be better than Sexton, Bridges, Ayton and Carter Jr.  Ayton has had an 18/11 season, Carter Jr 15/10, Bridges a 26 ppg season, Sexton a 24 ppg season.

Now assuming good faith, you're placing him as the 5th pick in that draft, just moving the 4 players above ahead of him, that makes him the 9th pick (he's showing nothing that shows he'll be a + rebounder).  Reasonable analysis would show him to be a top 15 pick at best if he was in the 2018 draft.  I'm not spending a #1 pick on a player who is only considered as the #1 pick based on year he's drafted, not talent. 

I would trade out of this top pick faster than I could drive a Model Y.  If the class is so weak that a player who might not get picked in the lottery some years is the top pick, you trade down for a lower risk position dollar wise and take the highest floor player. Save this good fortune for a better year.

You don't take in consideration the offensive rebound rate? It's pretty good.  I read and watched that some of his defensive rebounding deficiencies were due to the scheme his team ran.  He was out on the perimeter a lot. 

Edey and Clinghan are really good rebounders as well. 

I'm not really in the camp of trading the pick unless it gets us a haul.  The draft is just the supplement in the overall make over of this roster Yes, trading down and getting more picks for a current two way star (who is that?) I can see. 

Edited May 20 by marco102

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Bagley was rated higher (think about this), you're saying he's going to be better than Sexton, Bridges, Ayton and Carter Jr.  Ayton has had an 18/11 season, Carter Jr 15/10, Bridges a 26 ppg season, Sexton a 24 ppg season.

Now assuming good faith, you're placing him as the 5th pick in that draft, just moving the 4 players above ahead of him, that makes him the 9th pick (he's showing nothing that shows he'll be a + rebounder).  Reasonable analysis would show him to be a top 15 pick at best if he was in the 2018 draft.  I'm not spending a #1 pick on a player who is only considered as the #1 pick based on year he's drafted, not talent. 

I would trade out of this top pick faster than I could drive a Model Y.  If the class is so weak that a player who might not get picked in the lottery some years is the top pick, you trade down for a lower risk position dollar wise and take the highest floor player. Save this good fortune for a better year.

I don't have to think about this.  I KNEW Bagley would struggle in the NBA.  He lacked defense and perimeter ability, much like another player I'm not high on this year.  I knew Ayton would struggle because he was a throwback big and not a modern big.  I knew Bamba would struggle because I never bought into his perimeter shooting and questioned whether he was athletic enough to defend on the perimeter.  

I nailed JJJ, as I said back then that he was a potential DPOY.  I'm telling you right now, Alex Sarr is a potential DPOY in the NBA.  

[KB21]

Would I use the #1 overall pick on a player who has the ability to be a DPOY type in the NBA with his switchable defense?  You f***ing bet I will!

[thecampster]

1 minute ago, marco102 said:

You don't take in the offensive rebound rate? It's pretty good.  I read and watched that some of his defensive rebounding deficiencies were due to the scheme the team ran.  It he was out on the perimeter a lot. 

Edey and Clinghan are really good rebounders as well. 

I'm not really in the camp of trading the pick unless it gets us a haul.  The draft is just the supplement in the overall make over of this roster Yes, trading down and getting more picks for a current two way star (who is that?) I can see. 

There are proposed deals out there right now that include Bridges, 1 deal each with both SA and Det.....the Det proposal is being floated in the media and involves moving down to 5.

[AHF]

25 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Let me say it a different way about why I say the floor is so low with this draft class. Below are the notable picks from the 2018 draft.  Knowing those players based on both what you know now and what you thought then, who on that list are you picking Sarr ahead of? Where are you slotting him.

Pick	Player	Pos.
1	Deandre Ayton	C
2	Marvin Bagley III	PF
3	Luka Dončić*~	PG
4	Jaren Jackson Jr.+	PF
5	Trae Young*	PG
6	Mo Bamba	C
7	Wendell Carter Jr.	C
8	Collin Sexton	SG/PG
9	Kevin Knox II	SF
10	Mikal Bridges	SF
11	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander*	SG/PG
12	Miles Bridges	SF
14	Michael Porter Jr.	SF
17	Donte DiVincenzo	SG
19	Kevin Huerter	SG
21	Grayson Allen	SG
23	Aaron Holiday	PG
24	Anfernee Simons	SG
25	Moritz Wagner	PF
26	Landry Shamet	SG
27	Robert Williams III	PF/C
33	Jalen Brunson+	PG
36	Mitchell Robinson	C
37	Gary Trent Jr.	SG
42	Bruce Brown	SG
45	Hamidou Diallo	SG

Assuming neutral talent on my current roster and based on what I know now, I would pick Sarr:

For Sure Behind

Luka

JJJ

Trae

Shai

Probably:

Mikal

Brunson

 

Given the draft outlooks for people, he would probably be behind Ayton and Bagley based on what we knew then but not today.

So I'll call that a range of 5-10 in this draft class with those outlooks blended.

[thecampster]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

I don't have to think about this.  I KNEW Bagley would struggle in the NBA.  He lacked defense and perimeter ability, much like another player I'm not high on this year.  I knew Ayton would struggle because he was a throwback big and not a modern big.  I knew Bamba would struggle because I never bought into his perimeter shooting and questioned whether he was athletic enough to defend on the perimeter.  

I nailed JJJ, as I said back then that he was a potential DPOY.  I'm telling you right now, Alex Sarr is a potential DPOY in the NBA.  

Actually, if you remember our argument back then I advocated for Trae with the pick and argued with @NBASupes on your behalf with JJJ. Supes claimed JJJ would be too foul prone. I agreed but said its natural NBA adjustment and stated JJJ would take about 2 years to adjust and would be a + player by year 3 (I forget the exact language). I said by his second contract he'd be a top 5 shot blocker in the NBA.  We were on the same side of the argument, I just saw Trae's offensive ability as generational.  We both agreed we liked the other's pick but preferred our guy.

I'm not sure you nailed JJJ as you said he'd be great right away. He was serviceable year 1/2 in 23 minutes per game, missed most of year 3. He was good by year 4. Became a beast year 6.  I would argue he was more ready for the NBA than Sarr is.

[thecampster]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Assuming neutral talent on my current roster and based on what I know now, I would pick Sarr:

For Sure Behind

Luka

JJJ

Trae

Shai

Probably:

Mikal

Brunson

 

Given the draft outlooks for people, he would probably be behind Ayton and Bagley based on what we knew then but not today.

So I'll call that a range of 5-10 in this draft class with those outlooks blended.

I'll call that fair. I'd go more pessimistic but that's fair. That's personal evaluation and it makes my point. If he'd go as low as 10 in another year, is it wise to spend the top pick on him, commit all that money to him this year? You could trade out of this pick down to the teens, still get Edey and pick up 2 more 1st round picks....that sounds a lot smarter to me.

[NBASupes]

I don't know how you claim JJJ as a clear success and Ayton as a failure when he's had way better success being a key part of the Finals with the Sun's and Ayton 2nd half of the season was MASSIVELY better than JJJ this year. Ayton and JJJ are literally in the same tier. Bags and Bamba are busts but a big part of that is due to injuries. 

[AHF]

13 minutes ago, thecampster said:

 I'm not spending a #1 pick on a player who is only considered as the #1 pick based on year he's drafted, not talent. 

I would trade out of this top pick faster than I could drive a Model Y.  If the class is so weak that a player who might not get picked in the lottery some years is the top pick, you trade down for a lower risk position dollar wise and take the highest floor player. Save this good fortune for a better year.

Eh.  I don't buy into this.  This is the only pick we have for the next 3 years that is guaranteed (in my little mind) to have a star level talent on the board when we draft.  I think there will be multiple players from this draft class who end up as All-Stars at least.  The real challenge is identifying which player(s) can make that leap.  But at #1 they will all be on the board so I'm taking my best shot at the guy I want and not drafting the "highest floor" player.  I don't think a highest floor guy is the right outlook to have.  I want the guy who in a year or two will be the best player from this class.

Is that Sarr?  That is up for debate.  But I'm not going to run scared with this pick.  I'd rather swing big and miss than do something like trade down and take a high floor guy who doesn't have really high upside.  If we are going to make the leap to contenders, this franchise doesn't need a John Collins / Kevin Huerter / DeAndre Hunter type of guy.  It needs a true star.  If we miss and Trae bails in two years, then we suck it up for a year and enter a full rebuild then.  If we hit, I think that gives us both our best chance at retaining Trae and the best chance at contending.

All that said, I would be open to trading the pick in the right deal.  The trade of the #1 by Boston to grab Tatum was highway robbery for them because they still got the best guy when they traded down.  Any deal like that is great.  A trade of the pick for a cornerstone player also makes sense.  But I'm aiming to swing big for an absolute stud in trade, draft, or whatever.  I'm not aiming with a top priority of ensuring that the player can start next year (and frankly I'm not even sure which draftee would be guaranteed to start on this roster next year absent a mandate from the front office).

[Hawkish]

16 minutes ago, thecampster said:

There are proposed deals out there right now that include Bridges, 1 deal each with both SA and Det.....the Det proposal is being floated in the media and involves moving down to 5.

Is there a way to get Ausar without giving up #1?

[KB21]

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

and frankly I'm not even sure which draftee would be guaranteed to start on this roster next year absent a mandate from the front office

Let that resonate. Is that what you spend a #1 pick on?  That pick has value and the value isn't just the player it returns.  Swing big by getting a haul back.  Use it to move some dead salary off the roster for a current cornerstone piece. But don't spend it on a maybe, an if.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Eh.  I don't buy into this.  This is the only pick we have for the next 3 years that is guaranteed (in my little mind) to have a star level talent on the board when we draft.  I think there will be multiple players from this draft class who end up as All-Stars at least.  The real challenge is identifying which player(s) can make that leap.  But at #1 they will all be on the board so I'm taking my best shot at the guy I want and not drafting the "highest floor" player.  I don't think a highest floor guy is the right outlook to have.  I want the guy who in a year or two will be the best player from this class.

Is that Sarr?  That is up for debate.  But I'm not going to run scared with this pick.  I'd rather swing big and miss than do something like trade down and take a high floor guy who doesn't have really high upside.  If we are going to make the leap to contenders, this franchise doesn't need a John Collins / Kevin Huerter / DeAndre Hunter type of guy.  It needs a true star.  If we miss and Trae bails in two years, then we suck it up for a year and enter a full rebuild then.  If we hit, I think that gives us both our best chance at retaining Trae and the best chance at contending.

All that said, I would be open to trading the pick in the right deal.  The trade of the #1 by Boston to grab Tatum was highway robbery for them because they still got the best guy when they traded down.  Any deal like that is great.  A trade of the pick for a cornerstone player also makes sense.  But I'm aiming to swing big for an absolute stud in trade, draft, or whatever.  I'm not aiming with a top priority of ensuring that the player can start next year (and frankly I'm not even sure which draftee would be guaranteed to start on this roster next year absent a mandate from the front office).

If we took the highest floor in 2005, we would have taken Chris Paul or Deron Williams. No one at the time had them as having the highest ceiling, that title was exclusive to Marvin. 

Turns out both had a higher floor and ceiling. Don't underestimate ceilings. I don't believe anyone had Steph having a higher ceiling than Blake Griffin including myself and look at what we have today. Sometimes, if we got MJ like we believe we do with Trae. Get him his Scottie Pippen (Edey).

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Before you declare the traditional big completely dead, remember the 2023-24 Defensive Player of the Year is a traditional big.  And it was his 4th DPOY award.  And his team is the favorite to win a title this year with him leading the team in Win Shares by a large margin.

Rudy Gobert DPOY (4x), 11.6 Win Shares

Anthony Edwards 7.5 Win Shares

[hylndr11]

That Detroit deal seems more like a reset.  Wouldn't give up the 1 in that deal 

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Before you declare the traditional big completely dead, remember the 2023-24 Defensive Player of the Year is a traditional big.  And it was his 4th DPOY award.  And his team is the favorite to win a title this year with him leading the team in Win Shares by a large margin.

Rudy Gobert DPOY (4x), 11.6 Win Shares

Anthony Edwards 7.5 Win Shares

It was a traditional big doing his job and doing all the dirty work that allowed JJJ to have his best defensive year. This year, that player was traded to Houston and his defensive metrics are just as bad as our bigs this year. Defensive rating of 113.

Edited May 20 by NBASupes

[KB21]

Just now, hylndr11 said:

That Detroit deal seems more like a reset.  Wouldn't give up the 1 in that deal 

Hell the f*** no!