Zach Edey Conundrum - Could Edey be the next great Atlanta Hawk or is he the next Cam Reddish

[Mikey]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

I have, he didn't push back and so I let it go.  Remember, my stance is pro Edey but its not "all in Edey".  I'm not ride or die but because I think we're overvaluing the entire draft class.

If Sarr was in the same class with Trae, Bamba, Doncic, Ayton, etc...he might not have gone top 10.  Same thing with the Hunter/Reddish class and there have been multiple busts in the lottery in both classes.  So I'm not going to get all bent out of shape excited for a player who in other draft years is a solid 12.

In years with 8 players with high floors, I go for highest ceiling of those 8 players.  In years with low floors even for the top 10 picks, I go for highest floor or trade down. I've advocated for both here.  I think the floor of the players being advertised in the top 10 are all low enough not to warrant picking them at all and committing that salary to them. You commit 5-10 million a year to a rookie, you want him to be playable. I can't guarantee I can play any of them real minutes.  This year, I can't play Sarr over JJ, OO, CC or even Bruno and expect to win.  Sarr this year doesn't potentially move the needle. You go Sarr, you're going full rebuild. You are 8 million from the tax but you finished in the lottery. The player you get has to be able to play and beat out what you currently have. Very few in this draft can.  The best bet to play out of the box (IMHO) as a big in this draft are Edey and Clingan. They can get rotation minutes out of the box and not kill your team's chances of winning. I can't say the same about Sarr.

Edey is 75 lbs bigger than Sarr, 5 inches taller

Clingan is 58 lbs bigger than Sarr, 2 inches taller

OO and Bruno are 16lbs heavier, Clint 32 lbs heavier.

 

Sarr is not guarding any of the big 5's consistently.  So if you're drafting him right now, you're drafting him as a 3. Are you playing him over JJ, over Hunter....not today you aren't.

We got in trouble against 2 types of players consistently the last 2 years.  1) big centers and 2) big/big scoring PGs.  Sarr fixes neither of those. He's tall at 6'11" but he's lighter than most PFs, forget centers.

I'm not calling Edey the next coming of Wilt and I distance myself quickly from those statements but in a world where a PF/C prospect who scored 9.4 ppg and is 30 lbs undersized at least is being considered with the first pick, I'll go with the known commodity who can contribute now.

We are up against the LT and can afford to drop $10 million/year on a player who may not be able to play in the rotation.

So because Sarr can't guard Joel Embiid (nobody in the league can) and any other big center that means he will be a 3? What about all the other positives he brings as a defender and how necessary that is for the Hawks. Not to mention we beat Joel in a series and clint wore him down. You don't draft in the NBA to go up against a certain player or anything like that. The hawks need a guy to come in and improve their entire defense. Sarr does that immediately more than any player in the draft. 

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

If we took the highest floor in 2005, we would have taken Chris Paul or Deron Williams. No one at the time had them as having the highest ceiling, that title was exclusive to Marvin. 

Turns out both had a higher floor and ceiling. Don't underestimate ceilings. I don't believe anyone had Steph having a higher ceiling than Blake Griffin including myself and look at what we have today. Sometimes, if we got MJ like we believe we do with Trae. Get him his Scottie Pippen (Edey).

Both Paul and Williams had high ceilings.  I don't disagree that Marvin was considered to be the highest ceiling player.  The scouts were wrong on him.  I'm not going to ignore floor but I'm more focused on ceiling.

High floor was the rationale for picking Shelden Williams.

5 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Let that resonate. Is that what you spend a #1 pick on?  That pick has value and the value isn't just the player it returns.  Swing big by getting a haul back.  Use it to move some dead salary off the roster for a current cornerstone piece. But don't spend it on a maybe, an if.

I would say a majority and perhaps all of the following players as rookies would not start on this current roster without front office mandate:

Dirk Nowitzki

Steve Nash

Giannis Antetokounmpo 

Kevin Garnett

Kobe Bryant

Scottie Pippen

Paul George

Kawhi Leonard

 

I think you get my point.  I am more concerned with where these guys project a few years into their careers than what they will be as rookies.

And, again, I'm open to a trade that brings us a haul but we may not agree on what constitutes a haul.  For me a haul is quality over quantity.  Late first round picks are garbage to me given their historical hit rate.  So I will not trade this pick to a team I think will be god and take back their pick and future picks (especially protected ones) unless I can still get "my guy" ala the Celtics trade of Fultz.

[NBASupes]

Just now, Mikey said:

So because Sarr can't guard Joel Embiid (nobody in the league can) and any other big center that means he will be a 3? What about all the other positives he brings as a defender and how necessary that is for the Hawks. Not to mention we beat Joel in a series and clint wore him down. You don't draft in the NBA to go up against a certain player or anything like that. The hawks need a guy to come in and improve their entire defense. Sarr does that immediately more than any player in the draft. 

He's not gonna do that, especially as a rookie. Defense is hard in the NBA. Wemby is the in terms of natural defensive abilities and even he couldn't change a defense like that. It's a lot of actions, you gotta know all of the plays, personnel, tendencies, how refs call, etc. It takes years, usually around year 3 before defense starts being understood. Then you add the fact that Sarr is a big wing and you want him to be a big. 

I truly believe some Sarr supporters just don't understand how hard the NBA is.

[Mikey]

8 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

It was a traditional big doing his job and doing all the dirty work that allowed JJJ to have his best defensive year. This year, that player was traded to Houston and his defensive metrics are just as bad as our bigs this year. Defensive rating of 113.

This isnt even arguing in good faith... you don't think their entire team getting hurt and them having ot play g leaguers most of the year had anything to do with this?

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Both Paul and Williams had high ceilings.  I don't disagree that Marvin was considered to be the highest ceiling player.  The scouts were wrong on him.  I'm not going to ignore floor but I'm more focused on ceiling.

High floor was the rationale for picking Shelden Williams.

I would say a majority and perhaps all of the following players as rookies would not start on this current roster without front office mandate:

Dirk Nowitzki

Steve Nash

Giannis Antetokounmpo 

Kevin Garnett

Kobe Bryant

Scottie Pippen

Paul George

Kawhi Leonard

 

I think you get my point.  I am more concerned with where these guys project a few years into their careers than what they will be as rookies.

And, again, I'm open to a trade that brings us a haul but we may not agree on what constitutes a haul.  For me a haul is quality over quantity.  Late first round picks are garbage to me given their historical hit rate.  So I will not trade this pick to a team I think will be god and take back their pick and future picks (especially protected ones) unless I can still get "my guy" ala the Celtics trade of Fultz.

Yep!

Shelden shouldn't have been picked anywhere near the top 20. Undersized centers are an no go unless they are exceptional athletes with exceptional skill like Moses Malone.

Otherwise, no go zone. He had to move to PF and really had no advantages. 

It's hard to draft the next star. There is some luck involved. Nothing about Nash said two time MVP out of Santa Clara. 

3 minutes ago, Mikey said:

This isnt even arguing in good faith... you don't think their entire team getting hurt and them having ot play g leaguers most of the year had anything to do with this?

Nope!

[Mikey]

Just now, NBASupes said:

He's not gonna do that, especially as a rookie. Defense is hard in the NBA. Wemby is the in terms of natural defensive abilities and even he couldn't change a defense like that. It's a lot of actions, you gotta know all of the plays, personnel, tendencies, how refs call, etc. It takes years, usually around year 3 before defense starts being understood. Then you add the fact that Sarr is a big wing and you want him to be a big. 

I truly believe some Sarr supporters just don't understand how hard the NBA is.

More and more bigs are coming in year 1 and having a defensive impact (more and more rookies in general). Chet, Wemby, mobley, kessler, mark williams, cason wallace, podz, list goes on and on. Now do I think Sarr will be chet or those guys defensively year 1...no but to take like he cant improve our defense year 1 is just dumb. Yeah he not gonna be a DPOY in year 1 but he can play in any scheme and is a freak athletically. He will be a factor on defense in year 1.

[thecampster]

7 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

That Detroit deal seems more like a reset.  Wouldn't give up the 1 in that deal 

Consider this deal.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10120942-trade-packages-for-the-no-1-pick-in-2024-nba-draft

 

The Trade

Atlanta Hawks Receive: Matisse Thybulle, No. 7, No. 14

Detroit Pistons Receive: Clint Capela

Portland Trail Blazers Receive: No. 1 pick, 2027 second-round pick (less favorable from Brooklyn and Dallas, via Detroit)

1. 
   
    
2. You trade Capela and #1.  You walk out of the draft with Matisse Thybulle, Dalton Knecht and Zach Edey and clear $12 million in total cap room. Or you pass through Thybulle to Detroit and take back Ausar Thompson instead.  That's 3 players (regardless of the version you take) that can all play here this year.  Or you take Sarr and hope he can play meaningful minutes next year.

 

[Mikey]

Best defensive prospect in the draft can't impact the Hawks defense year 1 but Zach Edey can. gimmie a break

[AHF]

Just now, NBASupes said:

It's hard to draft the next star. There is some luck involved. Nothing about Nash said two time MVP out of Santa Clara. 

Agree.  But the only way to get a star is to:

(a) draft him;

(b) sign him in FA (X); or

(c.) trade for him (long shot).

I would pursue a trade this offseason but know that only the draft is open to me unless something unexpected happens.  If we miss on the evaluation or get unlucky, those are the breaks.  And maybe there just isn't a true star in this draft in which case I'd expect our GM to trade the pick accordingly.  But that depends on where our GM lands on that.  For now, I'm assuming there will be one or more players that our GM thinks have that potential.

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, Mikey said:

Best defensive prospect in the draft can't impact the Hawks defense year 1 but Zach Edey can. gimmie a break

Edey is actually solid at big man things on defense. Solid post up defender. Good paint protector. Being 7'5 299 pounds, strong as an ox with a 7'10.75 wingspan helps. 

He's physically mature. Edey also has high mental acuity too. That said, Edey as a 4 would be shit. Sarr wouldn't be. There are advantages to playing 4 years of college basketball. 

The reason why Edey would help on D more in year 1 is because his offensive value makes his defense a lot better due to his ability to get players in foul trouble and benches are just a lot weaker than starting units in the NBA. The Minnesota, Kevin Love factor. 

Exploits are everything in the NBA. If Sarr gets to that point, he will do the same. 

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Agree.  But the only way to get a star is to:

(a) draft him;

(b) sign him in FA (X); or

(c.) trade for him (long shot).

I would pursue a trade this offseason but know that only the draft is open to me unless something unexpected happens.  If we miss on the evaluation or get unlucky, those are the breaks.  And maybe there just isn't a true star in this draft in which case I'd expect our GM to trade the pick accordingly.  But that depends on where our GM lands on that.  For now, I'm assuming there will be one or more players that our GM thinks have that potential.

In the draft I'm betting on Dalton Knecht to be that dude.  Everything I saw from him in the tourney told me was going to be a very good pro. Narrower floor ceiling than most but closest thing to a sure fire bet I can think of in this draft. He's a winner which to me is the best stat.
 

 

[Mikey]

5 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Edey is actually solid at big man things on defense. Solid post up defender. Good paint protector. Being 7'5 299 pounds, strong as an ox with a 7'10.75 wingspan helps. 

He's physically mature. Edey also has high mental acuity too. That said, Edey as a 4 would be shit. Sarr wouldn't be. There are advantages to playing 4 years of college basketball. 

The reason why Edey would help on D more in year 1 is because his offensive value makes his defense a lot better due to his ability to get players in foul trouble and benches are just a lot weaker than starting units in the NBA. The Minnesota, Kevin Love factor. 

Exploits are everything in the NBA. If Sarr gets to that point, he will do the same. 

You got it bro. Got an argument for everything Edey based. Im sure the Hawks want to draft a player that can only play drop when they don't want to run that at all. Guess scheme fits don't matter anymore. 

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, thecampster said:

In the draft I'm betting on Dalton Knecht to be that dude.  Everything I saw from him in the tourney told me was going to be a very good pro. Narrower floor ceiling than most but closest thing to a sure fire bet I can think of in this draft. He's a winner which to me is the best stat.
 

 

I would not start him over Bogi next year.  They do the same thing but Bogi is much more proven and knows where to be on both ends of the floor better than any rookie will.  If Knecht turns into something significantly better than Bogi, I'm not optimistic it will be next season.

He was on my radar at 10 with the assumption that DJM is traded and Snyder is done with Griffin.

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I would not start him over Bogi next year.  They do the same thing but Bogi is much more proven and knows where to be on both ends of the floor better than any rookie will.  If Knecht turns into something significantly better than Bogi, I'm not optimistic it will be next season.

He was on my radar at 10 with the assumption that DJM is traded and Snyder is done with Griffin.

Yah, that's why I was saying 7 with the proposed trade. He's not 1 worthy. No one this year is.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

You got it bro. Got an argument for everything Edey based. Im sure the Hawks want to draft a player that can only play drop when they don't want to run that at all. Guess scheme fits don't matter anymore. 

Edey and Clingan both will have to play on switches as they did in college at times and both will have to work on that and will likely get cooked at times. While Edey might stop Kyrie once on a switch, Kyrie will cook the hell out of him consistently. It's hard to find guys who can switch like Sarr and Mobley. 

[Mikey]

Just now, NBASupes said:

Edey and Clingan both will have to play on switches as they did in college at times and both will have to work on that and will likely get cooked at times. While Edey might stop Kyrie once on a switch, Kyrie will cook the hell out of him consistently. It's hard to find guys who can switch like Sarr and Mobley. 

Thank god hawks are in position to draft one on those guys

[Hawkish]

9 minutes ago, thecampster said:

In the draft I'm betting on Dalton Knecht to be that dude.  Everything I saw from him in the tourney told me was going to be a very good pro. Narrower floor ceiling than most but closest thing to a sure fire bet I can think of in this draft. He's a winner which to me is the best stat.
 

 

More agile and skilled Kyle Korver?  Yes, please. 

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, Hawkish said:

More agile and skilled Kyle Korver?  Yes, please. 

His game is very skilled and similar to Korver.  He'd be a bench player for us but probably rotation in the 2/3 role squeezing out Matthews/Griffin minutes.

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Yah, that's why I was saying 7 with the proposed trade. He's not 1 worthy. No one this year is.

I don't agree with the idea that no one is worthy.  The reality is that once a player is picked that player is off the board and unavailable.  To me, there is no value of a #1 pick or #3 pick or #5 pick, etc. in the abstract.  The value is entirely dependent on who is on the board.  The salary difference is there but not that meaningful to me.  Most rookies are strong values as contracts.  So if we think a particular player is going to be great in the future or great on this roster, then that player is the player that is worthy at 1.  If that player will still be on the board at 7, then trade down and take him there (you get as much as possible but it doesn't matter because you get the player you want at a lower price so it doesn't really matter what you get).  If he won't be on the board (or to put it in more meaningful language if he probably won't be on the board), then trading down comes at a cost and it is entirely dependent on what you get back as to whether that is worth it. 

If Detroit offers their 2025 unprotected first, for example, then I'm listening.  If New York offers me a good player and their 2025 first, I'm not listening.

[KB21]

37 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He's not gonna do that, especially as a rookie. Defense is hard in the NBA. Wemby is the in terms of natural defensive abilities and even he couldn't change a defense like that. It's a lot of actions, you gotta know all of the plays, personnel, tendencies, how refs call, etc. It takes years, usually around year 3 before defense starts being understood. Then you add the fact that Sarr is a big wing and you want him to be a big. 

I truly believe some Sarr supporters just don't understand how hard the NBA is.

He's not a big wing.  He has never played wing in his basketball career.  He can guard wings, which is important, but he's not a wing.  He's as much of a wing as Chet Holmgren and Wemby are wings.