Zach Edey Conundrum - Could Edey be the next great Atlanta Hawk or is he the next Cam Reddish

[JayBirdHawk]

Brandon Scoop B Robinson: New Orleans Pelicans have scheduled a draft workout with Purdue center Zach Edey. The Pelicans have the No. 21 overall pick in next month’s NBA Draft. With multiple reports indicating that Jonas Valanciunas may not return to NOLA because of perceived fit alongside their star player, Zion Williamson, Pels could look to draft the 7’4 300 pound Edey if available.

– via Twitter

[thecampster]

20 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Brandon Scoop B Robinson: New Orleans Pelicans have scheduled a draft workout with Purdue center Zach Edey. The Pelicans have the No. 21 overall pick in next month’s NBA Draft. With multiple reports indicating that Jonas Valanciunas may not return to NOLA because of perceived fit alongside their star player, Zion Williamson, Pels could look to draft the 7’4 300 pound Edey if available.

– via Twitter

Its looking increasingly like he won't be on the board at 21.  10-14 looks like the spot right now.

If he's on the board at 20, at least 5 teams would be looking to trade back into the 1st round to take a flyer on him. The rookie scale salary at pick 20 is 3.3 million. That's a smidge more than end of the bench guy. That's super low risk.

Edited May 31 by thecampster

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

Its looking increasingly like he won't be on the board at 21.  10-14 looks like the spot right now.

If he's on the board at 20, at least 5 teams would be looking to trade back into the 1st round to take a flyer on him. The rookie scale salary at pick 20 is 3.3 million. That's a smidge more than end of the bench guy. That's super low risk.

I think he's off at 10.

[thecampster]

I think that's a huge part of the mock draft opinions that people should look at and discount...the rookie salary scale.

Here it is below:

PICK	TOTAL VALUE	YEAR 1	YEAR 2	YEAR 3OPTION	YEAR 4OPTION
1	$57,194,232	$12,605,760	$13,236,360	$13,866,480	$17,485,632
2	$51,185,934	$11,278,680	$11,842,800	$12,406,920	$15,657,534
3	$45,987,522	$10,128,480	$10,634,640	$11,141,520	$14,082,882
4	$41,473,010	$9,131,760	$9,588,600	$10,045,320	$12,707,330
5	$37,573,217	$8,269,440	$8,682,600	$9,096,240	$11,524,937
6	$34,135,176	$7,510,680	$7,886,280	$8,262,000	$10,476,216
7	$31,176,028	$6,856,440	$7,199,520	$7,541,880	$9,578,188
8	$28,575,059	$6,281,280	$6,595,440	$6,909,480	$8,788,859
9	$26,279,554	$5,773,800	$6,062,760	$6,351,360	$8,091,634
10	$24,969,982	$5,485,080	$5,759,280	$6,033,240	$7,692,382
11	$24,021,017	$5,210,760	$5,471,520	$5,732,160	$7,606,577
12	$23,098,277	$4,950,480	$5,198,160	$5,445,600	$7,504,037
13	$22,206,623	$4,702,800	$4,938,120	$5,173,200	$7,392,503
14	$21,353,078	$4,467,960	$4,691,400	$4,914,840	$7,278,878
15	$20,526,044	$4,244,160	$4,456,320	$4,668,600	$7,156,964
16	$19,505,670	$4,032,240	$4,233,720	$4,435,560	$6,804,150
17	$18,537,485	$3,830,280	$4,021,920	$4,213,440	$6,471,845
18	$17,619,313	$3,639,120	$3,820,680	$4,002,960	$6,156,553
19	$16,834,358	$3,475,200	$3,648,840	$3,822,960	$5,887,358
20	$16,166,314	$3,336,000	$3,502,800	$3,669,360	$5,658,154
21	$15,700,787	$3,202,560	$3,362,880	$3,523,080	$5,612,267
22	$15,248,165	$3,074,640	$3,228,240	$3,381,960	$5,563,325
23	$14,807,321	$2,951,760	$3,099,480	$3,246,600	$5,509,481
24	$14,378,284	$2,833,800	$2,975,520	$3,117,120	$5,451,844
25	$13,957,745	$2,720,040	$2,855,880	$2,992,440	$5,389,385
26	$13,500,112	$2,630,040	$2,761,440	$2,892,840	$5,215,792
27	$13,115,096	$2,554,200	$2,681,880	$2,809,920	$5,069,096
28	$13,036,482	$2,538,240	$2,665,560	$2,792,400	$5,040,282
29	$12,941,917	$2,520,120	$2,646,000	$2,772,120	$5,003,677
30	$12,847,904	$2,501,640	$2,626,680	$2,752,080	$4,967,504

 

I've bolded everything after pick 13.

Now look at the NBA veteran minimum salary table (bolding everything after rookie contract expires):

Years of Experience	Salary
0	$1,160,544
1	$1,867,722
2	$2,093,637
3	$2,168,944
4	$2,244,249
5	$2,432,511
6	$2,620,778
7	$2,809,042
8	$2,997,308
9	$3,012,229
10+	$3,313,453

Lastly, here are the exception totals:
 

Year	Mid-Level Non-Taxpayer	Bi-Annual
2024-25	$12,951,000	$4,715,000

When you look at those salaries analyze his cost at position X vs cost of a vet. So as you can see, you give the bi-annual exception to vets you want to sign but have no real salary left to sign.  That's 4.7 million. Everyone else signing is pretty much signing for the minimum (end of bench guys....like Vit should have been, Bruno, etc). So say you wanted to sign a player to fill out the roster who has experience (is useful), they are going to be out of their rookie contract in most cases. That puts them at year 5.  So the minimum you are signing that player for is $2.4 million and a 10 year vet, $3.3 million.

So visit Edey at pick 20, $3.3 million. It is the exact same cost to your cap as a 10 year, end of the bench vet (Wesley Matthews filled this spot for us last year).  So Edey at 20 = Wesley Matthews cost wise and a little more than a Trent Forest.  At 20, Edey = $600,000 more than Bruno Fernando but $21 million less than Clint Capela.

Consider you are an NBA GM.  You have limited funds to build a roster.  The risk/reward prospect of Edey (2-4 year risk) against the reality you are going to spend that salary on someone and that someone is a vet. You already know what they bring and they are going to cost you the same or more salary.  The reward end of the equation of betting on Edey far outweighs the risk if the risk is you don't sign Wesley Matthews. You know the draft is a crap shoot after pick 5 most years, after pick 0 this year. there are almost no sure things in this draft.

Now realize 80% of these picks will only play spot minutes this year. Consider Memphis who paid Santi Adama $3.9 million to get 10 points, 5 rebound per game last year (61 games).  Cost Edey, $600,000 less. Consider Toronto who currently only has 1 center on the roster and is paying Kelly Olenyk $12.8 million per year for the next 3 years.  They'd love to trade out of that, get Edey to be their backup and see if they strike gold. They draft 19th. Phoenix is 109 million over the cap, their only center of note is Nurkic. If they could get off some salary and get another pick in the first round for Edey, they'd do it in a heartbeat.  Utah, Chicago and others would all move things around to take Edey in the teens. 

The draft isn't just about who the casual fan or broadcaster value. Its about value by position, current salary cap, future contract status of your vets, lots of things.  The risk/reward prop of Edey, even as your #2 center and 3-4 million per year locked in is to tantalizing for teams to keep passing on. He isn't going in the 20's.  Drafting Edey will have an immediate effect on season ticket sales, single game ticket sales. Taking him anywhere in the teens will pay for itself in jersey/ticket sales alone. Its an extremely low risk proposition for a franchise.

[NBASupes]

I am hearing Edey is doing great in the process so far. I haven't heard of any workouts yet other than ones planned but I look forward to hearing about them.

[thecampster]

How good was Edey last year really and how bad would Purdue have been without him. See the following chart:

So Braden Smith and Lance Jones' numbers are skewed due to spending most of their floor time with Edey.  This is per 100 possessions.  Offense + 27, defense + 8 a total of +35 per 100 possessions.

Again, look at the rest and how much negative is on that chart. Without Edey, they don't even make the NIT. I honestly can't see how anyone argues this.  

The potential 3rd pick played him in the national championship game. Edey 37/10/2.  Clingan 11/5/1.  The defensive post wizard Clingan held him to 60% fg%???

We and everyone else that passes on him is going to regret it.  The man played vs 2 other lottery bound centers in this draft. In 3 games he average over 30/11 while holding them to an average of 9/7.....I just can't wrap my head around everyone's opinions on this board. It should be a very easy decision.

[mountainjim]

nice post - well supported and makes you think.

I admit I don't know the path forward, hoping the Hawks braintrust can figure this out.

Am getting tired of reading the same opinions expressed as facts by certain posters ad-infinitum.

 

[Gray Mule]

I want the Hawks to keep #1 pick and take Sarr.

If they trade the #1 pick for 2 later picks, I really hope that 1 of the 2 is Edey.  

[thecampster]

Really, really need everyone bagging on Edey to listen to this podcast with an open mind.

 

 

[NBASupes]

He's doing exceptionally well in the workouts. 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

He's doing exceptionally well in the workouts. 

How many and which other teams beside his hometown Raptors has he worked out for?

[thecampster]

He's scheduled with the Pels, I know Memphis wants to work him out and I believe there was a private undisclosed team.

[JTB]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

He's scheduled with the Pels, I know Memphis wants to work him out and I believe there was a private undisclosed team.

Will be interesting if Edey is Memphis fall back plan shall Clingan go top 3.

[JayBirdHawk]

17 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

How many and which other teams beside his hometown Raptors has he worked out for?

I'll answer my own question. So far he's worked out for: PTL #14, LAL #17,  TOR #19, NOP #21.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/2024-draft-workouts-tracker/

[Spud2nique]

7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'll answer my own question.

  

[thecampster]

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/6Df6tN9EMTMjpZMy/?mibextid=J7ZoRX

[gurpilo]

I agree, I can see Hawks taking a chance on Edey trading for 12-20th pick with Sac pick or Griffin or 2 2nd rounders, I really think distance is low with Clingan but no way we can pass on Sarr at#1

[Threezus]

I'll even go as far to say i would have no problem coming back around and grabbing Edey even with taking Sarr number 1.  They don't overlap and have completely different skill sets.  I can run Jalen at the 3, Sarr at the 4, and Edey at the 5 and be ok with that.  Have onyeka start and Edey off the bench  and you can run multiple different looks and sets with those 3 bigs and move on from Capela to save alot of money.    I actually like Edey as a player and would take him over Clingan as well but im not passing up on a generational upside skill set in sarr at 1.  Give me both guys and be done with and we can figure out how to use them later. 

[KB21]

Insanity.  Some of you don’t have a damn clue about the modern NBA.  

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, Threezus said:

 I actually like Edey as a player and would take him over Clingan as well but im not passing up on a generational upside skill set in sarr at 1. 

Can you define for me, just "you", what that skill set is?

Can you also then admit that Edey's back to the basket game, rebounding game, size is also generational?