2024 Hawks Offseason Thread: Draft Over: What's Next?

[AHF]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

The full deal is:

Gallo, 2 1sts, 1 swap, 2 2nds vs 2 1sts, Dyson, Nance, Liddell.

I find it not particularly useful to compare the two trades (much more team control of DJM today than when we got him and he is more proven today as well for better and worse) but I think you have to look at it from the point of the trade and that protections are critical to include.

1 protected first that converts to 2 seconds if protections prevent conveyance 

2 unprotected firsts

Unprotected pick swap

vs

1 unprotected first

1 “worst of” pick where we get the worse pick between NO and Mil 

[Hawkish]

Just now, REHawksFan said:

Right, but Gallo was immediately waived and not considered an asset in the deal.  I also don't consider Liddell an asset necessarily.  

What are the assets?  2 1sts, 1 swap, and 2 2nds vs 2 1sts, Dyson (lottery pick) and Nance

That's not terribly different.  

It entirely depends on where the picks end up.  The picks Atlanta gave up seem to affect what decisions we make.  There is a resonating psychological value there…

[REHawksFan]

10 hours ago, FL_BRYANT said:

Over a long season with Bogi playing starter minutes those numbers would be very different.  No way Bogi plays better D than Murray. As far as size goes they are both 6ft5. Bogi weights a bit more that's all. Bogi has no positive impact on defense.  No one believes that. 

 

1 hour ago, AHF said:

You are getting caught up in something irrelevant.  We have a full season of comparison:  >2700 minutes for DJM and >2400 minutes for Bogi.  36 mpg for Trae and DJM and 30 mpg for Bogi.  This is not an evaluation of Bogi in the abstract; it is a comparison against DJM and driven by how terrible Trae and DJM were together more than how great Bogi is.  But the difference is stark.  And it was there the season before too.  The defense and offense were both better with Bogi and Trae than DJM and Trae both seasons.

From last year:

The difference between Trae/Bogi (+5.27 NetRtg) and Trae/DJM (-6.56 NetRtg) is staggering.  

Looking at it without considering all three gives you this:

Trae/Bogi is still +3.39 while Trae/DJM is -2.62.  If anything, the numbers suggest the combo of Trae and Bogi unlocks Trae more than any other player.  

[JayBirdHawk]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I find it not particularly useful to compare the two trades (much more team control of DJM today than when we got him and he is more proven today as well for better and worse) but I think you have to look at it from the point of the trade and that protections are critical to include.

1 protected first that converts to 2 seconds if protections prevent conveyance 

2 unprotected firsts

Unprotected pick swap

vs

1 unprotected first

1 “worst of” pick where we get the worse pick between NO and Mil 

From a pick only stance we are in the loss column. But we also got useful players that fill very specific needs. Ideally, my preference would have been to get a bonafide starter back.

[REHawksFan]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

I find it not particularly useful to compare the two trades (much more team control of DJM today than when we got him and he is more proven today as well for better and worse) but I think you have to look at it from the point of the trade and that protections are critical to include.

1 protected first that converts to 2 seconds if protections prevent conveyance 

2 unprotected firsts

Unprotected pick swap

vs

1 unprotected first

1 “worst of” pick where we get the worse pick between NO and Mil 

Sure, but you can't just ignore the value of Daniels who was a lottery pick.  And Nance has value as well.  It's essentially 4 assets vs 4 assets.  

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

100%.  I am going to be super pissed if the Hawks salary dump Hunter or think we have enough big wings without him. I have a hard time picturing trades for him that make us better and plausibly can happen.  Grass is greener is a great way of describing the issue. 
 

I think we are obviously better after the DJM trade.  It conversely was hard for me to envision any trade of DJM that didn’t make the team better.  My criticism of the trade was similar to me criticizing Fields for not setting up a trade down with Washington in the draft over the last several weeks (once they ruled out Sarr they should have been all-in on Sarr in the media to make everyone think he was our guy and make the Wizards pay to get Sarr).  I just feel like we left value in the table in both cases.

I don’t know why embracing Risacher is like entering the twilight zone.  It is logical, imo.  I don’t like Jayson Tatum but if he became a Hawk I would root for him because he is wearing a Hawks jersey.  I rooted for Christian ****ing Laettner.  We need wings with size so Risacher helps make the team better.  He seems to have a strong work ethic and if he delivers on the combo of perimeter defense and perimeter shooting he will make us better.  Why not root for that to happen?  I wanted Sarr for the same reasons you did but once it is done there is no use disliking Risacher. Absolutely welcome to the Hawks.  Now if Sarr becomes and impact defender and better player, Landry Fields should take the blame for that.  But hate Risacher now?  No way.  I want to see the kid become the best version of himself here in Atlanta.

Great discussion!  A+ post.  I obviously wanted Sarr but if the Hawks could turn Risacher into an effective 6'10 shooting guard,  I can certainly live with this.  Personally I would have kept DJ mainly because of his Salary and because I think their impact on winning is very similar.  I am positive on the trade because of the potential of Daniel and that Nance is a real player in this league.  Quinn has a lot more flexibility now vs what he had over the last 2 years of Trae ball and Murray iso's.

[REHawksFan]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

From a pick only stance we are in the loss column. But we also got useful players that fill very specific needs. Ideally, my preference would have been to get a bonafide starter back.

I agree with you here.  But preference doesn't determine value.  I'm not saying you are suggesting such, but just pointing it out because it seems to get lost in the discussion.  

Preferring a starting caliber player in return is no guarantee that the value is equal or better to what we got. When analyzing the actual trade, the value we received seems fair to me.  However, I too would have preferred a clear starter that also addressed the needs of the team.  Instead, we got a couple of players that address team needs and a couple of picks.  Fair, imo. 

I'll also note that I expect Daniels has a chance to start at the 2.  I think they will want to pair him and Trae as much as possible and probably like Bogi off the bench.  

[Final_quest]

The picks we gave up vs the ones we got back are so volatile.  The Lakers pick could be in the 18-22 range or up to a top 4 pick.  Same with our unprotected picks.

It’s up to our execution.  If the renovation job is successful we win the deal.  Or if the Lakers deliver a top 5 pick we could win big.  

Same potential to lose big.  I think on paper the picks we gave up (ours) are more valuable.  

[Final_quest]

25 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I agree with you here.  But preference doesn't determine value.  I'm not saying you are suggesting such, but just pointing it out because it seems to get lost in the discussion.  

Preferring a starting caliber player in return is no guarantee that the value is equal or better to what we got. When analyzing the actual trade, the value we received seems fair to me.  However, I too would have preferred a clear starter that also addressed the needs of the team.  Instead, we got a couple of players that address team needs and a couple of picks.  Fair, imo. 

I'll also note that I expect Daniels has a chance to start at the 2.  I think they will want to pair him and Trae as much as possible and probably like Bogi off the bench.  

Tyler Jones was super high on Daniels as one of the best POA defenders in the league.  Will be really interesting to see how Trae does playing more with Daniels and Bogi, possibly Risacher as well.

Remember how Bey’s shot completely failed us?  31% on the corners.  Now we are running better defenders and better shooters if Risacher is playable year one.  

[kg01]

3 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Tyler Jones was super high on Daniels as one of the best POA defenders in the league.  Will be really interesting to see how Trae does playing more with Daniels and Bogi, possibly Risacher as well.

Remember how Bey’s shot completely failed us?  31% on the corners.  Now we are running better defenders and better shooters if Risacher is playable year one.  

FQ out here dropping dimes right now.

I was high on Dyson as a rookie, showed serious defensive instincts so I'm really excited to see what he can be for us.

[Final_quest]

27 minutes ago, kg01 said:

FQ out here dropping dimes right now.

I was high on Dyson as a rookie, showed serious defensive instincts so I'm really excited to see what he can be for us.

What can be, unburdened by what has been.

[kg01]

Smh 

[Packfill]

21 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Tyler Jones was super high on Daniels as one of the best POA defenders in the league.  Will be really interesting to see how Trae does playing more with Daniels and Bogi, possibly Risacher as well.

Remember how Bey’s shot completely failed us?  31% on the corners.  Now we are running better defenders and better shooters if Risacher is playable year one.  

I think shooting is going to be a real question mark for this Hawks team as currently constructed - at least until it is not.  Reasoning being we lost a high volume 3 point shooter (Murray, and to a lesser extent Bey) and are replacing them with guys that won't be guarded out to the 3 point line until they prove they can hit shots consistently.  That is going to have a big impact on spacing and how teams defend the Hawks.  Teams will do everything they can to force someone other than Trae to make shots.

There of course is potential to make it all work.  JJ could up his volume - hopefully without losing efficiency, which is probably the most clear cut way to fill the shooting void.  Risacher could come in from day 1 and be a bucket but realistically he is 19 and his shooting prowess is not considered to be a true plus skill at this stage in his development.  Daniels could learn to shoot at a respectful level from 3 and do so at volume, but that level of development is likely a multi-year arc.

The Hawks traded a much more certain outcome - Murray getting buckets but fitting terribly with Trae - for a much less certain outcome (can these guys play quality minutes next season?), but one with potential to meaningfully raise the bar.  I am not saying it won't happen, but I do think it will take more than a year for Risacher and Daniels to become plus offensive weapons (I think it will take a year or more for Risacher to become a plus defender as well, but that is a function of youth and experience that comes with drafting a 19 year old).

As far as Nance goes, as the roster is currently constructed, if he is playing more than 15 minutes a night I think it means the Hawks have injury issues that are going to undermine the season.

[macdaddy]

2 minutes ago, Packfill said:

I think shooting is going to be a real question mark for this Hawks team as currently constructed - at least until it is not.  Reasoning being we lost a high volume 3 point shooter (Murray, and to a lesser extent Bey) and are replacing them with guys that won't be guarded out to the 3 point line until they prove they can hit shots consistently.  That is going to have a big impact on spacing and how teams defend the Hawks.  Teams will do everything they can to force someone other than Trae to make shots.

There of course is potential to make it all work.  JJ could up his volume - hopefully without losing efficiency, which is probably the most clear cut way to fill the shooting void.  Risacher could come in from day 1 and be a bucket but realistically he is 19 and his shooting prowess is not considered to be a true plus skill at this stage in his development.  Daniels could learn to shoot at a respectful level from 3 and do so at volume, but that level of development is likely a multi-year arc.

The Hawks traded a much more certain outcome - Murray getting buckets but fitting terribly with Trae - for a much less certain outcome (can these guys play quality minutes next season?), but one with potential to meaningfully raise the bar.  I am not saying it won't happen, but I do think it will take more than a year for Risacher and Daniels to become plus offensive weapons (I think it will take a year or more for Risacher to become a plus defender as well, but that is a function of youth and experience that comes with drafting a 19 year old).

As far as Nance goes, as the roster is currently constructed, if he is playing more than 15 minutes a night I think it means the Hawks have injury issues that are going to undermine the season.

I'd make the case that we were a better offense before DJ got here.  So Trae/Bogi and really Trae/anyone is a proven top 5 offense.   So i don't think it's as uncertain as we think. 

[Packfill]

37 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I'd make the case that we were a better offense before DJ got here.  So Trae/Bogi and really Trae/anyone is a proven top 5 offense.   So i don't think it's as uncertain as we think. 

The Hawks offense before Murray is largely irrelevant to next season given the passage of time, significant roster turn-over and coaching changes.  Those teams also had more shooters that needed to be guarded at the 3pt line - shooters like Gallo and Huerter that have not been replaced and that team did have a reliable POA defender in Delon Wright plus a younger Clint.

Again, I am not saying the moves the team has made won't bear fruit, just that I think it will take time.  Risacher is only 19 and Daniels only 21, so they have a long way to go before they peak.

[marco102]

 

[FL_BRYANT]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

You are getting caught up in something irrelevant.  We have a full season of comparison:  >2700 minutes for DJM and >2400 minutes for Bogi.  36 mpg for Trae and DJM and 30 mpg for Bogi.  This is not an evaluation of Bogi in the abstract; it is a comparison against DJM and driven by how terrible Trae and DJM were together more than how great Bogi is.  But the difference is stark.  And it was there the season before too.  The defense and offense were both better with Bogi and Trae than DJM and Trae both seasons.

Believe that if you want. Who else was on the floor,when were they on the floor and who were they on the floor against. Was Bogi on the floor mainly against second teams ?

Analytics don't tell the complete story. One thing I know is Murray is a better defensive player than Bogi. So I think their are more variables to look at before you can come up with a definitive answer. 

I believe the biggest failure of the Murray/ Trae backcourt was the pieces the Hawks surrounded them with along with a few other reasons. I just don't believe your numbers tell the complete story. 

 

[FL_BRYANT]

3 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

 

From last year:

The difference between Trae/Bogi (+5.27 NetRtg) and Trae/DJM (-6.56 NetRtg) is staggering.  

Looking at it without considering all three gives you this:

Trae/Bogi is still +3.39 while Trae/DJM is -2.62.  If anything, the numbers suggest the combo of Trae and Bogi unlocks Trae more than any other player.  

You think the number of minutes played was a factor? I don't think this tells the full story if your doing a comparison. It leaves me with more questions 

[Gray Mule]

Contrarily, in spite of what many believe, Bogie is not completely helpless on the defensive side.  He's picked off too many passes for even me to believe this.  We finally got a healthy Bogie.  I hope he stays that way!

[FL_BRYANT]

9 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

Contrarily, in spite of what many believe, Bogie is not completely helpless on the defensive side.  He's picked off too many passes for even me to believe this.  We finally got a healthy Bogie.  I hope he stays that way!

I don't think he is a better defender than Murray. Plus I think his defense will suffer with more minutes especially if he is playing against first string ballplayers.  Ultimately I think you have to look at a lot of variables to get a complete story.