2024 Hawks Offseason Thread: What's Next? 2024-25 Season Outlook.

[JeffS17]

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I was thinking the same but since this could be Trae redemption season, I am just keeping quiet. 

I think it can be too, especially with this roster that fits.  I want to see it though, just like I want all our guys to earn their contracts.

[AHF]

This has nothing to do with Trae entitlement.  It is about how to retain our best talent.  If you don't think Trae walking signals a multi-year rebuild (starting with a year where we don't own our pick) then we fundamentally differ about how this roster is constructed and what talent we can land in FA.  IMO, the entire team right now is built around him with multi-talented players who aren't much in the way of individual scorers but who are proven to be or look like they can be nice offensive pieces in an offense with Trae as the engine.  Take the engine out of the car and you are starting over, imo.

If the Hawks want to start over then they deal him and lean into that.  If they don't, they need to make sure they do enough that he wants to stay.  

Keeping Trae happy is only a priority now in a way it never has been because he is two years away from being an UFA and if you want to deal him then you must do it before it is known that he is bailing on the Hawks when his contract is done.  When he was 4-5 years away from UFA, it was an entirely different dynamic.  The team could do whatever they want and have years to prove that out.  All they had to do was avoid offending him so badly he would demand a trade.  Now they need to get his buy-in to their future.  This would be the same consideration with any number of standout players around the league as they approach UFA with their teams.

[JeffS17]

If the keys to the franchise, a ton of free marketing, and the $215M contract he's got aren't keeping him happy, then there's nothing more to do.  He is not Lebron.  He does not and should not have any kind of pull like that.  He is not even making all-star games every year and you guys want our FO to kiss his feet.  It's off putting as hell for me.  

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

If the keys to the franchise, a ton of free marketing, and the $215M contract he's got aren't keeping him happy, then there's nothing more to do.  He is not Lebron.  He does not and should not have any kind of pull like that.  He is not even making all-star games every year and you guys want our FO to kiss his feet.  It's off putting as hell for me.  

We know you dislike him.  That is fine.  Root for the team to deal him and bring in someone else if you like or just assume he will return out of gratitude for someone being willing to put up with him.

But my perspective is that some stars will walk if they value competing over money and that Trae has at least publicly been all about competing since coming to Atlanta as far as what he describes as his priority.  It is funny that you are kind of betting that he doesn't have that kind of integrity with this perspective - we don't need to worry about getting more competitive because he'll just take the money anyway.  He has been invited to 5 consecutive All-Star games so if that is your standard I guess it is the fact that he turned down two invites during that period that is your problem with him (otherwise not sure why it is being mentioned).

Feel free to be off put by my perspective.  It doesn't bother me.  I see a team that is built around a player and I see a fanbase desperate for some meaningful success.  If we can't convince Trae we are on the path to competing and eventual contending before he is an UFA, it won't just be Trae that is lost but a lot of fans in seats will be gone as well.  Who wants to pay for season tickets for a lottery team without a lottery pick?  I guess you'll enjoy the games more with more leg room and not having to be offput by his attitude but I doubt that is the goal for the team.  My point is that is the risk the team is creating with their current plan, and I think that risk is real.  (This is the first time in Trae's career in Atlanta that this has been a consideration for me.)

[JeffS17]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

We know you dislike him.  That is fine.  Root for the team to deal him and bring in someone else if you like or just assume he will return out of gratitude for someone being willing to put up with him.

I love Trae, he's one of my favorite players, so you couldn't be further off here.  But that doesn't mean I will not criticize him when he deserves it and it doesn't mean I'm going to overvalue him in discussions and kiss his feet and beg him to stay in Atlanta.  I hope he recognizes what this franchise has done for him and stays in Atlanta regardless of us contending next year or not.

[Wretch]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

If the keys to the franchise, a ton of free marketing, and the $215M contract he's got aren't keeping him happy, then there's nothing more to do.  He is not Lebron.  He does not and should not have any kind of pull like that.  He is not even making all-star games every year and you guys want our FO to kiss his feet.  It's off putting as hell for me.  

I think this is semantics or maybe misreading the conversation.  Sucking up to Trae isn't what I'm implying.  I'm past whether or not Trae is happy¹ or bought in and looking at it purely from an objective point of view.  It's about decision making and maximizing the return on whatever path we're investing in.  In light of that, I don't think there's a good path forward where we build for the future while also building around a player that wants to win now.  Something has to give.

...and I don't think it's only the LeBrons of the league that can or should influence decision-making.  There are a lot of 1B and maybe even 1C players that front offices bend their ears to.  If it matters, I was put off by that attitude after his sophomore season and did not believe we should have been catering to him over the rebuild.  For better or worse, I do believe he's earned it now, but we can agree to disagree on that.

*edit - I'm gonna keep putting these footnotes in my posts because clearly I talk weird and folks infer things I don't mean. LOL When I say "make Trae happy" I'm making a hyperbolic blanket statement.  I don't mean literally pamper him.  I mean do what it takes NOW to retain him IF we desire his services past 2026.¹

[deester11]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

All this talk about doing enough for Trae to stay is crazy when other teams don't even have much interest in him.  Trae's value on this forum is higher than in every other front office in the league, including our own.  The framing is so off.  Trae should be proving he's worth a potential 35% max next year because contracts are getting tight in the new CBA and he's a 1 way player.  He needs to prove he can do something next year with a team that fits well and was carefully constructed to make up for his glaring weaknesses.

Some of the comments here are just weird and presume an immense amount of entitlement on Trae's part.

Yeah, cause most teams are really up front about their desires about Trae. Love him or hate him, take him off the Hawks and let's see how that works out. In a big picture scenario, you set yourself up to not require a star in order to compete.  Have the hawks remotely done that? I'd counter with no. What's weird is the people who diminish what Trae means to THIS team. Who cares realistically what others teams want. IF he requested a trade, you won't get value for him, but most certainly teams would come calling. 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Last year at the start of the season 'it was to 'avoid the play-in'......what exactly is it supposed to be this year?

If we aren't getting 'better' than we were last year and it's not reflected in our W/L record, we're just spinning the hamster wheel. 

[sturt]

26 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

the hamster wheel

 

 

[Final_quest]

8 hours ago, Wretch said:

In light of that and the two guaranteed years that we are in control of his services, I think there needs to be more of a sense of urgency if keeping him long term is the plan.  I don't mean stupid moves or overpays...but draft capital and potential are not valuable to us in and of themselves.  To another team absolutely...and I'm saying make that happen if the goal is keeping him happy in a Hawks uniform.

As I've said though, I'm not in "camp win now" or "camp long term vision" or "camp trade Trae for the picks-back" or anything like that.  I'm only saying that a cautious, sort of "in between", soft rebuild strategy (if that's what we're doing) carries significant risk. 

There is a fine line between urgency moves and desperation moves.  You said no stupid moves or overpays, but make an urgent move.  
Ever hear this saying?  Fast, good, or cheap.  Pick one.  
The idea that urgent high quality moves were available is where you will have to convince me.  How?  We didn’t have draft picks to trade.  We only had the MLE to spend.  I’ve already said Murray isn’t a guy that fits for most teams. 
We did the next best thing.  Add high quality young players, clear salary, and add draft picks.  Now we are in position to make the kinds of moves you want.

[AHF]

4 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I love Trae, he's one of my favorite players, so you couldn't be further off here.  But that doesn't mean I will not criticize him when he deserves it and it doesn't mean I'm going to overvalue him in discussions and kiss his feet and beg him to stay in Atlanta.  I hope he recognizes what this franchise has done for him and stays in Atlanta regardless of us contending next year or not.

My apologies for saying you don’t like him.  I’ve just seen you repeatedly talk about how much you hate seeing his terrible attitude and now the idea of him wanting the team to be more competitive offends you so it makes me think you are ready to move on from him.  Sorry for misrepresenting your take on him.  Genuinely.

But you seem to be deliberately misrepresenting what several of us have been saying.  No one thinks the team will contend next year or that contending next year is needed to convince Trae we are on the right track.  You know that, right?  We just had the #1 overall pick and traded a talented player on a great contract so the whole idea is that he should expect pretty substantial improvement over where we’ve been the last few years and should have confidence that the FO has a plan that takes the team to contention and as fans we aren’t convinced so we are worried that Trae won’t be either.  Not because we want to kiss his ring but because this team has the chance to become a dumpster fire if he leaves and we don’t see a compelling case right now to make on this and the window the team will have to prove the FO’s case is pretty small.  Depending on how confident the FO is, it could be as short as one season before they are at the fish or cut bait stage with him.  That is worrying because I’m looking at the same time horizon you are and it looks really bad if he decides to leave.

[AHF]

13 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

There is a fine line between urgency moves and desperation moves.  You said no stupid moves or overpays, but make an urgent move.  
Ever hear this saying?  Fast, good, or cheap.  Pick one.  
The idea that urgent high quality moves were available is where you will have to convince me.  How?  We didn’t have draft picks to trade.  We only had the MLE to spend.  I’ve already said Murray isn’t a guy that fits for most teams. 
We did the next best thing.  Add high quality young players, clear salary, and add draft picks.  Now we are in position to make the kinds of moves you want.

Great.  Then let’s make that move.  Can’t wait to see Landry do it.  I’ll have so much more confidence in him when he does it and I believe all our players will too.

[JeffS17]

22 minutes ago, AHF said:

My apologies for saying you don’t like him.  I’ve just seen you repeatedly talk about how much you hate seeing his terrible attitude and now the idea of him wanting the team to be more competitive offends you so it makes me think you are ready to move on from him.  Sorry for misrepresenting your take on him.  Genuinely.

Thanks, I tend to be a tougher critic on guys that I like and represent the team/city than others.  Trae is most likely here to stay, so I want him to rep us well.

23 minutes ago, AHF said:

But you seem to be deliberately misrepresenting what several of us have been saying.  No one thinks the team will contend next year or that contending next year is needed to convince Trae we are on the right track.  You know that, right?  We just had the #1 overall pick and traded a talented player on a great contract so the whole idea is that he should expect pretty substantial improvement over where we’ve been the last few years and should have confidence that the FO has a plan that takes the team to contention and as fans we aren’t convinced so we are worried that Trae won’t be either.  Not because we want to kiss his ring but because this team has the chance to become a dumpster fire if he leaves and we don’t see a compelling case right now to make on this and the window the team will have to prove the FO’s case is pretty small.  Depending on how confident the FO is, it could be as short as one season before they are at the fish or cut bait stage with him.  That is worrying because I’m looking at the same time horizon you are and it looks really bad if he decides to leave.

If that's the case, I guess I just disagree with the premise we aren't on the right track.  I feel like we've done damn near everything possible this offseason to be on the right track.  It might be that I felt our starting point was much lower going into this offseason than most, and I was one of the few here that wanted Risacher, so I am very excited for next season.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Damn. Yall got Wretch to type more in this thread, than he had all year.

Good stuff on both sides.

[AHF]

If we end up winning 45-50 games like you guys think and making the playoffs outright, then I think that will be plenty of progress to keep Trae engaged even though we obviously won’t be contending (and even without a deep playoff run).  Having that kind of success to me would signal development from out young players that would support a credible path to contending in the future.  What makes me nervous is that I see the range of outcomes including spending the next two years as a closer to .500 play-in team.  That scenario makes me very worried about where we will be in three years because there is a good chance everything falls apart if that happens and we end up back hoping for lottery luck which is not where I want to be.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

5 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

If the keys to the franchise, a ton of free marketing, and the $215M contract he's got aren't keeping him happy, then there's nothing more to do.  He is not Lebron.  He does not and should not have any kind of pull like that.  He is not even making all-star games every year and you guys want our FO to kiss his feet.  It's off putting as hell for me.  

They kiss his feet because hes arguably the 2nd or 3rd best player in franchise history.

He's a guy producing career numbers only Oscar Robertson, Tiny Archibald, and Luka can say they can produce.

A guy that small averaging 25 and 9 for his career, and producing double digit assists the past 2 seasons, is ridiculous.

It's crazy that dang near every other star player can at least get a 2nd guy that compliments him. But when it comes to Trae, he has to do it himself without help.

And honestly, most fans are tired of the excuses from the front office. Especially when money prevents them from making bold moves.

If JJ or Zaach doesn't become a high level frontcourt player, it won't matter what type of season Trae has. And Trae will still get blamed for the Hawks not getting better.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, Wretch said:

I think this is semantics or maybe misreading the conversation.  Sucking up to Trae isn't what I'm implying.  I'm past whether or not Trae is happy¹ or bought in and looking at it purely from an objective point of view. 

*edit - I'm gonna keep putting these footnotes in my posts because clearly I talk weird and folks infer things I don't mean. LOL When I say "make Trae happy" I'm making a hyperbolic blanket statement.  I don't mean literally pamper him.  I mean do what it takes NOW to retain him IF we desire his services past 2026.¹

The footnote is a great touch. I may borrow that in a future post.

[Wretch]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

There is a fine line between urgency moves and desperation moves.  You said no stupid moves or overpays, but make an urgent move.  
Ever hear this saying?  Fast, good, or cheap.  Pick one.  
The idea that urgent high quality moves were available is where you will have to convince me.  How?  We didn’t have draft picks to trade.  We only had the MLE to spend.  I’ve already said Murray isn’t a guy that fits for most teams. 
We did the next best thing.  Add high quality young players, clear salary, and add draft picks.  Now we are in position to make the kinds of moves you want.

There are only a few things that I've said for sure.  One is that I'm saving my opinion on our ceiling for when I actually have one.  Another is that I don't believe it's ideal to focus on the future (picks and potential) while trying to keep a star that has very vocally expressed his disinterest in developing players over competing now.  This does not mean that I'm advocated for appeasing Trae (or trading him).  His desire to win now is just a statement of fact.  Coupled with his contract, the picture paints itself. 

So, it's not "the kind of moves I want" per se.  It's just what you do when you have a star that wants to compete sooner than later.  Which brings up the part I've highlighted above.  We're not really disagreeing as I've said this multiple times (and not just in this thread):

10 hours ago, Wretch said:

In light of that and the two guaranteed years that we are in control of his services, I think there needs to be more of a sense of urgency if keeping him long term is the plan.  I don't mean stupid moves or overpays...but draft capital and potential are not valuable to us in and of themselves.  To another team absolutely...and I'm saying make that happen if the goal is keeping him happy in a Hawks uniform.

[Gray Mule]

Hawks will not spend, yet their payroll is very high, so which is it?  We need to trade for another star.  Who?  We did that and it didn't work, did it.  Trae is leaving if we don't win a lot of games.  So, if we can't win with him here, what is the problem?

Last season, we believe our players didn't fit.  We've fixed this problem.  We believe in how our players fit together.  Lots of new faces but those talking heads, the "experts" that we hear from, believe we are no better than we were last season.  What do we, the Squawk posters, believe?  Are we better?  Are we just sitting still, spinning our wheels in the snow, going nowhere?

No one really likes warm iced tea.  No one really likes lukewarm hot coffee.  Can this team rise above the .500% mark?

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, Gray Mule said:

Hawks will not spend, yet their payroll is very high, so which is it?  We need to trade for another star.  Who?  We did that and it didn't work, did it.  Trae is leaving if we don't win a lot of games.  So, if we can't win with him here, what is the problem?

Last season, we believe our players didn't fit.  We've fixed this problem.  We believe in how our players fit together.  Lots of new faces but those talking heads, the "experts" that we hear from, believe we are no better than we were last season.  What do we, the Squawk posters, believe?  Are we better?  Are we just sitting still, spinning our wheels in the snow, going nowhere?

No one really likes warm iced tea.  No one really likes lukewarm hot coffee.  Can this team rise above the .500% mark?

Hawks were 23rd in payroll last year. 15th so far for the upcoming year. Certainly not one of the big spenders in the NBA.

I think most folks on here believe the Hawks have gotten better. We have insanely better fit and actual NBA depth. The question among Squawkers is HOW MUCH BETTER?

I'm in the minority here, but I firmly believe the Hawks have gotten a lot better. Not to contender status, but solidly into top 6-8 in the East. I thin 45 wins is min this year.