2024 Hawks Offseason Thread: What's Next? 2024-25 Season Outlook.

[kg01]

33 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Hawks were 23rd in payroll last year. 15th so far for the upcoming year. Certainly not one of the big spenders in the NBA.

I think most folks on here believe the Hawks have gotten better. We have insanely better fit and actual NBA depth. The question among Squawkers is HOW MUCH BETTER?

I'm in the minority here, but I firmly believe the Hawks have gotten a lot better. Not to contender status, but solidly into top 6-8 in the East. I thin 45 wins is min this year. 

 

I think Trae can get the team to a .500 season pretty easily.  That doesn't sound profound but, if you think about it, it kinda is.  Not many players can do that.

That said, we shld see that as the floor.

Better depth and fit, as you mentioned, should elevate us more than most seem to realize right now.  Plus I'm expecting some teams to come back to life this year.  I expect some fade from ORL, CLE, NYK, PHI, and IND.  Book it. 

[Spud2nique]

8 minutes ago, kg01 said:

ORL, CLE, NYK, PHI, and IND.

Agreed except the Knicks. The rest are going down but the Knicks kinda worry me. I can’t believe I just said that. 

[kg01]

21 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Agreed except the Knicks. The rest are going down but the Knicks kinda worry me. I can’t believe I just said that. 

I'm predicting fit issues and frontcourt depth issues there.

[Wretch]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

I think Trae can get the team to a .500 season pretty easily.  That doesn't sound profound but, if you think about it, it kinda is.  Not many players can do that.

That said, we shld see that as the floor.

Better depth and fit, as you mentioned, should elevate us more than most seem to realize right now.  Plus I'm expecting some teams to come back to life this year.  I expect some fade from ORL, CLE, NYK, PHI, and IND.  Book it. 

Before I get my hopes up, I want to see someone other than Trae making clutch shots.  Getting better defensively is fantastic, but we're still at square one if we're trying to trade baskets in the clutch with our big gun being swarmed.  The defense is still going to force someone else to beat them.  To that end, I'm anxious to see how removing the sub-optimal pairing with DJM affects the flow of our offense and how well Risacher/JJ can feed off of Trae's gravity.  If guys can effectively and consistently space the floor, then I'm excited.  If not, I still see us struggling with a play in.

[AHF]

36 minutes ago, Wretch said:

Before I get my hopes up, I want to see someone other than Trae making clutch shots.  Getting better defensively is fantastic, but we're still at square one if we're trying to trade baskets in the clutch with our big gun being swarmed.  The defense is still going to force someone else to beat them.  To that end, I'm anxious to see how removing the sub-optimal pairing with DJM affects the flow of our offense and how well Risacher/JJ can feed off of Trae's gravity.  If guys can effectively and consistently space the floor, then I'm excited.  If not, I still see us struggling with a play in.

I could see some spacing and threats with a lineup like Trae, Bogi, ZR, JJ and Nance on the floor.

[Wretch]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

I could see some spacing and threats with a lineup like Trae, Bogi, ZR, JJ and Nance on the floor.

Yes.  This is exactly why I want to see what our offense looks like (and what these young dudes can do) before I get excited.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but not setting myself up for disappointment.

[kg01]

1 hour ago, Wretch said:

Before I get my hopes up, I want to see someone other than Trae making clutch shots.  Getting better defensively is fantastic, but we're still at square one if we're trying to trade baskets in the clutch with our big gun being swarmed.  The defense is still going to force someone else to beat them.  To that end, I'm anxious to see how removing the sub-optimal pairing with DJM affects the flow of our offense and how well Risacher/JJ can feed off of Trae's gravity.  If guys can effectively and consistently space the floor, then I'm excited.  If not, I still see us struggling with a play in.

Fair to be in weight 'n see mode. 

Cmon, weight?  All this talk about gravity?

Keep up with the yokes, fokes. 

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, Wretch said:

Yes.  This is exactly why I want to see what our offense looks like (and what these young dudes can do) before I get excited.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but not setting myself up for disappointment.

I could see us doing some massive lineup shifts on offensive and defensive possessions in end game situations.  

On defense, I could see putting out a lineup of something like 5 of Kobe, DD, ZR, Hunter, JJ, OO, CC while there are several of those guys you probably don't want on the floor on offensive possessions.

[Final_quest]

12 hours ago, Wretch said:

There are only a few things that I've said for sure.  One is that I'm saving my opinion on our ceiling for when I actually have one.  Another is that I don't believe it's ideal to focus on the future (picks and potential) while trying to keep a star that has very vocally expressed his disinterest in developing players over competing now.  This does not mean that I'm advocated for appeasing Trae (or trading him).  His desire to win now is just a statement of fact.  Coupled with his contract, the picture paints itself. 

So, it's not "the kind of moves I want" per se.  It's just what you do when you have a star that wants to compete sooner than later.  Which brings up the part I've highlighted above.  We're not really disagreeing as I've said this multiple times (and not just in this thread):

Not sure what point you are making.  Not saying that as a slam.  Do you mean we got young players and picks, but that doesn’t fit with bolstering a roster around an established star like Trae?

If that’s what you mean, understand what I’m saying.  My point is the desire to get better win now players may have been there, but with little to work with they had to restock the shelves in a different way.  We may have settled for acquiring more assets that teams want when there wasn’t a viable option for win now vets that fit with Trae.  

We now have more paths to improve the roster than before.  One is internal development with young but ideal fits for Trae, and the other is assets to trade for veterans or even stars when they become available.  So we’re not neglecting urgency, we’re addressing it by creating more opportunity in the future.  If a team flounders we got a package to offer them to trade for their vets.

Just like working a draft board we made the best moves we could with what was available.  Avoiding desperation win now moves.  If you read this and still think we should have made “urgent” moves for Trae, I don’t see where you are stating there were good options available.  I’m not convinced they deliberately chose rebuild assets over ready for prime time assets.  It was more like we had way better options to acquire developmental assets.  

[Wretch]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Not sure what point you are making.  Not saying that as a slam.  Do you mean we got young players and picks, but that doesn’t fit with bolstering a roster around an established star like Trae?

If that’s what you mean, understand what I’m saying.  My point is the desire to get better win now players may have been there, but with little to work with they had to restock the shelves in a different way.  We may have settled for acquiring more assets that teams want when there wasn’t a viable option for win now vets that fit with Trae.  

We now have more paths to improve the roster than before.  One is internal development with young but ideal fits for Trae, and the other is assets to trade for veterans or even stars when they become available.  So we’re not neglecting urgency, we’re addressing it by creating more opportunity in the future.  If a team flounders we got a package to offer them to trade for their vets.

Just like working a draft board we made the best moves we could with what was available.  Avoiding desperation win now moves.  If you read this and still think we should have made “urgent” moves for Trae, I don’t see where you are stating there were good options available.  I’m not convinced they deliberately chose rebuild assets over ready for prime time assets.  It was more like we had way better options to acquire developmental assets.  

We're kind of talking past each other.  The confusion is separating what I want vs. what Trae wants.  Statement of facts vs. my opinion on those facts.  You're reading it like, "This is what Wretch wants to do." and responding like, "Here's why you need to be patient."

I'm assuming you've seen Trae's podcasts and have been paying attention to his comments/social media.  If not, this is a good time to listen to him talking about what he wants and expects from the franchise.  DISCLAIMER: This isn't about random tweets.  The below is taken from his podcast where he was asked to expand on his comments from his exit interview this year:

Quote

[...] everybody knows like obviously I want to be in Atlanta like I like I when I was drafted that's where I wanted to spend my whole career and um I mean but at the same time I want to win so like if if we're not on the same page and all wanting to win right now I mean there's there's times teams want to take their time and be slow with winning and process and it's just like I'm not not there anymore like I want to I want to win like and I've always been that way so um and like I don't I don't feel like I have any very much time to waste and so I just want to continue to play at a high level and I feel like I I can I can do that and play at a high level and win so that's all I was really yeah I mean reiterating is I just want to win

- Trae Young Recaps NBA Season, Talks Future, Discusses Boston Celtics & NBA Playoffs | Episode 19

Again, I'm presenting the facts and my opinion as it relates to Trae's comments and in light of his contract status.  As well, this isn't like the only time he's made his feelings clear.  He's pretty consistent about what he wants (ref. above "I've always been that way").  Taking him at his word, it is safe to say that Trae is not interested in developing players and draft picks.  Again, that is just a statement of fact...not my personal opinion on whether or not getting draft picks and young players is good or bad and certainly not my opinion on players I haven't seen play together and have very little data on.

If Trae is in win now mode and we intend to keep him beyond 2026 - then we need to be good enough to compete at a high level.  It's what he's looking for.  If we don't believe we can compete at a high level, and fairly quickly as Trae has emphasized wasting time and I'm assuming that's a shot at developing players, then as we've both mentioned (and many times) we should be looking to reroute assets for veteran help for our star and getting this team into a more "win now" mode.

Without more moves incoming and without seeing this team play together, all I can offer is a cursory evaluation.  Without that additional data, on the surface it looks like we're soft-rebuilding (this has been mentioned by our insiders).  I don't know if it will work or even if that's actually the plan, but if it is, then it's a risky strategy considering our star clearly wants to win now and we don't have him secured beyond 2026.

People with more confidence/optimism believe we have the ideal fit around Trae and we've done what he wanted (some people believe we shouldn't do anything Trae wants).  I am not as optimistic, so I can't commit to saying we've built the right team for Trae and we should be good.  I won't be there until I see the team play.

Additionally, if the plan is NOT to go all in with Trae, then we have until this year's trade deadline before Trae becomes a 1-year rental for a potential buyer.  That doesn't mean it's all over if we can't win a title this year or that Trae is going to walk.  We've all watched the game for decades.  We know the value on a 1yr rental, so if the plan is to maximize on his value...again, just putting the facts out there.  The picture paints itself.

TL:DR - I'm waiting for more data.  I am not confident in a strategy where we acquire young talent and draft picks, with the intention of developing them while also appealing to a star player who clearly wants to win now.  I am not sure that's what we're doing, but unless I see a loyalty pass from our star or some magic on the court, then we don't have a ton of time.

None of the above means:

• I think Trae is going to abandon us
• I am in panic mode and I want us to mortgage what little future we have
• I want to trade Trae
• I want to make a bunch of moves just to make Trae happy
• I'm not happy with the return for DJM
• I don't have faith in our coaching staff
• I don't believe JJ can evolve as a legit #2
• I think Risacher will be a bust
• I don't value defense
• The Earth is flat

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, Wretch said:

We're kind of talking past each other.  The confusion is separating what I want vs. what Trae wants.  Statement of facts vs. my opinion on those facts.  You're reading it like, "This is what Wretch wants to do." and responding like, "Here's why you need to be patient."

I'm assuming you've seen Trae's podcasts and have been paying attention to his comments/social media.  If not, this is a good time to listen to him talking about what he wants and expects from the franchise.  DISCLAIMER: This isn't about random tweets.  The below is taken from his podcast where he was asked to expand on his comments from his exit interview this year:

Again, I'm presenting the facts and my opinion as it relates to Trae's comments and in light of his contract status.  As well, this isn't like the only time he's made his feelings clear.  He's pretty consistent about what he wants (ref. above "I've always been that way").  Taking him at his word, it is safe to say that Trae is not interested in developing players and draft picks.  Again, that is just a statement of fact...not my personal opinion on whether or not getting draft picks and young players is good or bad and certainly not my opinion on players I haven't seen play together and have very little data on.

If Trae is in win now mode and we intend to keep him beyond 2026 - then we need to be good enough to compete at a high level.  It's what he's looking for.  If we don't believe we can compete at a high level, and fairly quickly as Trae has emphasized wasting time and I'm assuming that's a shot at developing players, then as we've both mentioned (and many times) we should be looking to reroute assets for veteran help for our star and getting this team into a more "win now" mode.

Without more moves incoming and without seeing this team play together, all I can offer is a cursory evaluation.  Without that additional data, on the surface it looks like we're soft-rebuilding (this has been mentioned by our insiders).  I don't know if it will work or even if that's actually the plan, but if it is, then it's a risky strategy considering our star clearly wants to win now and we don't have him secured beyond 2026.

People with more confidence/optimism believe we have the ideal fit around Trae and we've done what he wanted (some people believe we shouldn't do anything Trae wants).  I am not as optimistic, so I can't commit to saying we've built the right team for Trae and we should be good.  I won't be there until I see the team play.

Additionally, if the plan is NOT to go all in with Trae, then we have until this year's trade deadline before Trae becomes a 1-year rental for a potential buyer.  That doesn't mean it's all over if we can't win a title this year or that Trae is going to walk.  We've all watched the game for decades.  We know the value on a 1yr rental, so if the plan is to maximize on his value...again, just putting the facts out there.  The picture paints itself.

TL:DR - I'm waiting for more data.  I am not confident in a strategy where we acquire young talent and draft picks, with the intention of developing them while also appealing to a star player who clearly wants to win now.  I am not sure that's what we're doing, but unless I see a loyalty pass from our star or some magic on the court, then we don't have a ton of time.

None of the above means:

• I think Trae is going to abandon us
• I am in panic mode and I want us to mortgage what little future we have
• I want to trade Trae
• I want to make a bunch of moves just to make Trae happy
• I'm not happy with the return for DJM
• I don't have faith in our coaching staff
• I don't believe JJ can evolve as a legit #2
• I think Risacher will be a bust
• I don't value defense
• The Earth is flat

We are definitely talking past each other!  I’m saying something different altogether.  Trae and/or the Hawks may have preferred to get some win now players, but all the options in that category available to us sucked.  The younger players available to us were better.  A lot of nuance, but I’m simplifying the premise.  

My hunch is Trae is not happy.  He’s been close to silent.  Landry might be coming to him like a dad who couldn’t get the cool new toy for Christmas and trying to convince his child the dollar store rip off is just as good.  Gonna watch this dynamic really closely because it looks like a fragile situation.

But regarding the offseason I think intent is a big question where we are talking past each other.  My belief is Plan A was landing some win now guys.  When the options were literally terrible they were forced to go younger.  

[AHF]

32 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

We are definitely talking past each other!  I’m saying something different altogether.  Trae and/or the Hawks may have preferred to get some win now players, but all the options in that category available to us sucked.  The younger players available to us were better.  A lot of nuance, but I’m simplifying the premise.  

My hunch is Trae is not happy.  He’s been close to silent.  Landry might be coming to him like a dad who couldn’t get the cool new toy for Christmas and trying to convince his child the dollar store rip off is just as good.  Gonna watch this dynamic really closely because it looks like a fragile situation.

But regarding the offseason I think intent is a big question where we are talking past each other.  My belief is Plan A was landing some win now guys.  When the options were literally terrible they were forced to go younger.  

We can't really know for sure.  I'm pretty skeptical there were no more win now guys available for DM and so they went to plan B.  It seems like this front office to pick a blend of salary cap relief to move into a non-taxpaying position (the top priority for every offseason), picks, and players over a better slate of players. 

But even if I accept that this was the only trade even offered to the Hawks I am skeptical you can't get some win now talent for the valuable Lakers pick and the much less valuable double protected pick if that is your true goal for the offseason (i.e., you could accomplish that goal through multiple trades rather than a single trade which would mean that no one was willing to give up anything other than terrible talent for those picks or, more likely, the Hawks had their foot in both pools and were content with DD, Nance and ZR for win now talent being added).  

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

We can't really know for sure.  I'm pretty skeptical there were no more win now guys available for DM and so they went to plan B.  It seems like this front office to pick a blend of salary cap relief to move into a non-taxpaying position (the top priority for every offseason), picks, and players over a better slate of players. 

But even if I accept that this was the only trade even offered to the Hawks I am skeptical you can't get some win now talent for the valuable Lakers pick and the much less valuable double protected pick if that is your true goal for the offseason (i.e., you could accomplish that goal through multiple trades rather than a single trade which would mean that no one was willing to give up anything other than terrible talent for those picks or, more likely, the Hawks had their foot in both pools and were content with DD, Nance and ZR for win now talent being added).  

It’s hard to know for sure, but I think they might be gun shy after Murray was such a bad fit.  Seems like a hesitation to not make another mistake.

[ShayD]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

We can't really know for sure.  I'm pretty skeptical there were no more win now guys available for DM and so they went to plan B.  It seems like this front office to pick a blend of salary cap relief to move into a non-taxpaying position (the top priority for every offseason), picks, and players over a better slate of players. 

But even if I accept that this was the only trade even offered to the Hawks I am skeptical you can't get some win now talent for the valuable Lakers pick and the much less valuable double protected pick if that is your true goal for the offseason (i.e., you could accomplish that goal through multiple trades rather than a single trade which would mean that no one was willing to give up anything other than terrible talent for those picks or, more likely, the Hawks had their foot in both pools and were content with DD, Nance and ZR for win now talent being added).  

Didn't mind plan B, just didn't like the return of the trade.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

It’s hard to know for sure, but I think they might be gun shy after Murray was such a bad fit.  Seems like a hesitation to not make another mistake.

Scared money don’t make money.  

[Final_quest]

9 hours ago, AHF said:

Scared money don’t make money.  

Of course that’s glass half empty speculation.  If we’re allowed a little optimism, we’re gonna do more with less on the court AND have the luxury to make better moves when other teams get desperate.  Forcing the action this summer could have lead to taking the best of what was available for the sake of appeasing Trae, but making a huge compromise in fit or overpay of the player(s) we got in the process.  
In that scenario Landry is the one with the cooler head and not scared at all.  So the other side is making half baked moves to appease Trae is the “scared money that don’t make money.”  

[JayBirdHawk]

I'm with Bogi......

 

.....we seem to be going in the opposite direction. We're not a guaranteed playoff team, maybe not even a playin team. 

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm very unsettled by the team as it stands.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Of course that’s glass half empty speculation.  If we’re allowed a little optimism, we’re gonna do more with less on the court AND have the luxury to make better moves when other teams get desperate.  Forcing the action this summer could have lead to taking the best of what was available for the sake of appeasing Trae, but making a huge compromise in fit or overpay of the player(s) we got in the process.  
In that scenario Landry is the one with the cooler head and not scared at all.  So the other side is making half baked moves to appease Trae is the “scared money that don’t make money.”  

Making better moves is a necessity not a luxury.  I do agree you don't make a bad move out of desperation to just do something.  But I do find it ironic that you are saying we are scared to make another mistake at the same time Landry is bragging in press conferences that he would do the DM trade all over again.  That is insultingly stupid enough of a statement to begin with but through the lens of how you are seeing it that comment is also masking a deep insecurity along the once bitten twice shy variety.

Either way, we have to find a way to make significant moves happen if we ever want to contend like Trae, Bogi, and others want.  It isn't a luxury.

30 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm with Bogi......

 

.....we seem to be going in the opposite direction. We're not a guaranteed playoff team, maybe not even a playin team. 

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm very unsettled by the team as it stands.

I think we are a play-in team right now.  IMO, we should definitely be better than last year due to fit and depth.  How much better is the real question.  

[JayBirdHawk]

41 minutes ago, AHF said:

think we are a play-in team right now.  IMO, we should definitely be better than last year due to fit and depth.  How much better is the real question.  

I'm just not enthused by being a play-in team AGAIN.

 

My patience is wearing thin.

 

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm just not enthused by being a play-in team AGAIN.

 

My patience is wearing thin.

 

The people who think we did a great job on the DM trade think we'll be more like 45 to 50 wins and in the playoffs outright so hopefully they are right.