2024 Hawks Offseason Thread: What's Next? 2024-25 Season Outlook.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Making better moves is a necessity not a luxury.  I do agree you don't make a bad move out of desperation to just do something.  But I do find it ironic that you are saying we are scared to make another mistake at the same time Landry is bragging in press conferences that he would do the DM trade all over again.  That is insultingly stupid enough of a statement to begin with but through the lens of how you are seeing it that comment is also masking a deep insecurity along the once bitten twice shy variety.

Either way, we have to find a way to make significant moves happen if we ever want to contend like Trae, Bogi, and others want.  It isn't a luxury.

Glass half full, they are finding ways to set themselves up to make significant moves by taking action to stock ourselves with better assets.

I think you got the glass half empty covered.

[AHF]

20 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Glass half full, they are finding ways to set themselves up to make significant moves by taking action to stock ourselves with better assets.

I think you got the glass half empty covered.

We do have some nice assets right now for trades:

LA Pick

SAC Pick

Trae

DD

Bogi

JJ

OO

Kobe

ZR

 

The rest of our picks and players are basically filler or very modest in trade value, imo.  I'll put this in a glass half full light and say that I'm excited to see Fields prove me wrong* by getting a huge win in that future significant move trade that you are expecting. 

* - I say prove me wrong because I've been critical of his negotiating skills and said I lack confidence in his ability to win a big trade and look forward to seeing him win a significant trade in the way that I think his signing of Vit and Barlow and his trade for Roddy are clear wins (the only issue with those moves is they are clear wins on a much, much smaller scale that is unlikely to move the needle like that  hypothetical significant move would).

[Final_quest]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'll put this in a glass half full light and say that I'm excited to see Fields prove me wrong* by getting a huge win in that future significant move trade that you are expecting. 

I don't have a set expectation that they will do anything of significance.  Just like in years past when teams would create salary cap space to sign a max type player, they were still dependent on that player wanting to sign with them.  First you have to create the opportunity knowing that you might strike out.  All I'm saying is we're in a much better position and have possibilities that we didn't before. 

I really don't know where Trae's head is at, but we're getting players that fit with him.  Is he on board with what they've done?  Not sure he is.  I'd be mildly surprised if he is.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

I don't have a set expectation that they will do anything of significance.  Just like in years past when teams would create salary cap space to sign a max type player, they were still dependent on that player wanting to sign with them.  First you have to create the opportunity knowing that you might strike out.  All I'm saying is we're in a much better position and have possibilities that we didn't before. 

I really don't know where Trae's head is at, but we're getting players that fit with him.  Is he on board with what they've done?  Not sure he is.  I'd be mildly surprised if he is.  

One positive difference between where we are at with picks and players and a team creating salary cap space is that the picks and players still have value even if a trade never happens.  I do think the salary cap analogy is apt in some ways though as the potential to do something isn't worth much if you don't have the skills to make it happen.  Some of the teams that have created salary cap room have been jokes reminiscent of someone keeping their Saturday night open for that date with the hot cheerleader that is never going to happen.  We are in a position where the future with Trae will be a product of how competitive we are and how much he buys into our roster now and for the future.  The proof will be in the pudding when we see what moves are made or not made given your take that we are in now in the position to make significant moves.

[JeffS17]

I don't think we're scared to make another mistake-- I think there are no players available that make sense to pursue right now.

You really need perfect circumstances to trade for a championship core piece: they need to be available, they need to want to play for the Hawks, the other team has to want the assets we have (this one is a current sticking point as we do not have many positive assets), and they need to be on a good contract (most of the time this would be a plus value max guy).  I haven't seen any guys like that available this offseason.  Even if they were, I doubt we would be able to make the strongest bid.  Championship teams almost always come from development, so our current path looks great to me.

[AHF]

Can't agree or disagree on whether there has been any player available since the end of last season that makes sense for the Hawks.  I have no idea of any of the particulars around who wanted DM, the #1 pick, or other assets we might have offered up.  But I'll definitely grant that as a possibility that we have been able to get no player better than DD and no one else close to him.

I'll disagree with some as far as the perfect circumstances you cite for a big trade.  You are raising the bar too high, imo.  You don't really need the player to be excited about playing for the Hawks, for example.  Kawhi Leonard didn't want to play for Toronto and still carried them to a ring.  Kevin Love didn't love being in Cleveland but still was a core player on a multiple finals team.  They do need to be strong players and not so toxic that they will throw the team but that is a much lower bar than 'wanting to play for the Hawks' in my mind.  Historically, almost no one has 'wanted to play for the Hawks' so I think that perfect circumstance you are describing is one that may never come and that options short of that would be totally appropriate.  Did Joe Johnson "want to play for the Hawks"?  I don't know.  I know he wanted a big contract and big opportunity and got it by coming to Atlanta.  So whether he started off caring more about playing for the Hawks than any other team at the time we traded for him is certainly not clear to me.   The most likely scenario is trading for a player under contract so we really don't need them to be hyped about it as long as they will be professional.

As far as our current path, I agree we are banking on improvement through internal development and better fit.  If you are saying that we have the pieces to develop to form a championship roster then I would respectfully differ as I think strong development of our current roster will leave us well short of that goal.  That leaves us in need of more than simple development, imo.

[JeffS17]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

If you are saying that we have the pieces to develop to form a championship roster then I would respectfully differ as I think strong development of our current roster will leave us well short of that goal.  That leaves us in need of more than simple development, imo.

I think we are on the correct path but I'm not calling for any championships right now.  I don't think there's a path where we win a chip without significant luck in the next 3 years, minimum.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

We are in a position where the future with Trae will be a product of how competitive we are and how much he buys into our roster now and for the future.  The proof will be in the pudding when we see what moves are made or not made given your take that we are in now in the position to make significant moves.

[sturt]

44 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

55 minutes ago, AHF said:

If you are saying that we have the pieces to develop to form a championship roster then I would respectfully differ as I think strong development of our current roster will leave us well short of that goal.  That leaves us in need of more than simple development, imo.

I think we are on the correct path but I'm not calling for any championships right now.  I don't think there's a path where we win a chip without significant luck in the next 3 years, minimum.

 

Okay, you're going to have to define "correct path" for me if you're telling me the Hawks, even by your own generally-optimistic estimation would have to count on luck, not reason, to achieve the holy grail before the 2027-28 season... mind you, teams routinely have turned over most of their roster if you look from leap year to the next leap year... so, if you can't envision it until 4 years out at the earliest without some "significant luck," isn't that, practically speaking, the same as saying, "In its current state, there is nothing about our roster that suggests we're on the correct path."... ???

 

And it's a genuine question, so don't get all defensive on me... remember who I am... I'm the guy who very much made the case that Hawks people... the owner in particular, but too many fans as well... have been way too quick to assess the roster on the basis of lazy logic, and their own ADD demons... or put another way, their lack of capacity for patience in view of the fundamentals that could be revealed with some stronger study of and appreciation for the pandemic's effect. I made the case that we were too quick to panic, too quick to consider the team a lost cause.

And to finish the thought just because I want to...  as a result, our owner made his front office to operate under a premise that the team wasn't yet in a good place to justify acquiring and paying another top tier talent to boost the existing playoff-caliber talent... so instead of DJM coming in and boosting, DJM came in and had a muted effect because of significant talent APR regarded as too costly for his payroll to keep (Huerter)... too muted, then, to really have any meaningful effect on that season's outcome.

So don't get me wrong. I obviously agree. There is a glass ceiling... one imposed by the owner himself... that can only be reasonably suspected will forever prevent this team from getting to that camp that APR says he requires before he will... theoretically, if we believe his schtick... then open up his treasure chest, and (finally) boost the roster in some significant way in the aspiration to summit Everest.

APR is a miser. It is clear he will always consider himself the final judge of whether the team has arrived sufficiently for him to throw significant money at pushing over the hump to a championship... and as a consequence of that miserly predisposition, you can presume the judge will never come to the conclusion that the time is right to push... and for him to spend. "We're not there yet" is just going to be the mantra every off-season. Many of those seasons, that assessment will be accurate, but because the priority is on his spreadsheet not his trophy room, even in seasons when there is a legitimate question, the refrain will be the same... "we're just not there yet."

Circling back where this began, then... it reminds me of this...

It's not just that this current situation is "out of order"... the whole system is "out of order"... the whole pursuit/goal is ill-founded, practically impossible because of the dysfunction connected to how this owner makes the decisions he does.

 

 

[JeffS17]

12 minutes ago, sturt said:

Okay, you're going to have to define "correct path" for me if you're telling me the Hawks, even by your own generally-optimistic estimation would have to count on luck, not reason, to achieve the holy grail before the 2027-28 season... mind you, teams routinely have turned over most of their roster if you look from leap year to the next leap year... so, if you can't envision it until 4 years out at the earliest without some "significant luck," isn't that, practically speaking, the same as saying, "In its current state, there is nothing about our roster that suggests we're on the correct path."... ???

No, not really the same, to answer your question.  I think what you're ascribing to as luck I am ascribing to as investment.  We have invested in a top end development program and just secured a bunch of young assets and a potentially good pick next year.  We also have a team that fits now.  I view these young players and picks more valuable to us than to other teams for this reason.  So when other teams have to weight the probability of young guys developing into plus player, I see that probability as lower than with our staff and program.  So essentially, we don't have the assets to turn this team into a contender by trades.  We need time to develop in-house.

 

17 minutes ago, sturt said:

So don't get me wrong. I obviously agree. There is a glass ceiling... one imposed by the owner himself... that can only be reasonably suspected will forever prevent this team from getting to that camp that APR says he requires before he will... theoretically, if we believe his schtick... then open up his treasure chest, and (finally) boost the roster in some significant way in the aspiration to summit Everest.

Of course! All owners have glass ceilings for their teams until they are confident the roster has the talent to contend and then they take their safety hammers to the glass ceiling.  This is the incentive structure dictated by the CBA and isn't unique to Ressler.

18 minutes ago, sturt said:

APR is a miser. It is clear he will always consider himself the final judge of whether the team has arrived sufficiently for him to throw significant money at pushing over the hump to a championship... and as a consequence of that miserly predisposition, you can presume the judge will never come to the conclusion that the time is right to push... and for him to spend. "We're not there yet" is just going to be the mantra every off-season. Many of those seasons, that assessment will be accurate, but because the priority is on his spreadsheet not his trophy room, even in seasons when there is a legitimate question, the refrain will be the same... "we're just not there yet."

Agree to disagree here.  I actually do believe Ressler will go into the tax if we can put together a team that wins with any kind of consistency.  If Trae's extension was kicking in for the '21-22 season after our ECF run, I think he would have paid it then.  He believed in that squad.  Again, I think most owners will pay the tax if they believe their roster can make deep playoff runs, but few rosters show that potential so you only end up with 5-10 tax paying teams per year, a number likely to decrease with the new CBA structure.

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I don't think we're scared to make another mistake-- I think there are no players available that make sense to pursue right now.

You really need perfect circumstances to trade for a championship core piece: they need to be available, they need to want to play for the Hawks, the other team has to want the assets we have (this one is a current sticking point as we do not have many positive assets), and they need to be on a good contract (most of the time this would be a plus value max guy).  I haven't seen any guys like that available this offseason.  Even if they were, I doubt we would be able to make the strongest bid.  Championship teams almost always come from development, so our current path looks great to me.

We had very little money, part of an MLE.   A pick or two, that if we used them we’d have zero picks left to trade.  We had mostly players with big contracts other teams didn’t value.  
People act like we had the means to turn that into a contender or deep playoff team around Trae next year. And then wag the finger at Landry for not doing it. 

[JeffS17]

3 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

We had very little money, part of an MLE.   A pick or two, that if we used them we’d have zero picks left to trade.  We had mostly players with big contracts other teams didn’t value.  
People act like we had the means to turn that into a contender or deep playoff team around Trae next year. And then wag the finger at Landry for not doing it. 

Yes, this is why I say we are 3 years minimum from contending.  Our starting point was overpaid players, decent role players, young unproven talent, and a few picks.  It's a nearly impossible spot to have a quick turnaround, so we need to power through the next year or two.

[Spud2nique]

10 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Yes, this is why I say we are 3 years minimum from contending.  Our starting point was overpaid players, decent role players, young unproven talent, and a few picks.  It's a nearly impossible spot to have a quick turnaround, so we need to power through the next year or two.

So jefe’s word is the last word here? I was on a road trip for what seemed like a million hours. Gimme more! I’m reading all you fine folks’s posts while dipping my Jack in the box egg roll in some sweet n sour. I want more of both! More posts and more egg rolls! 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

NBA 2024 Offseason Check-In: Atlanta Hawks

Free agent signings

 

• Cody Zeller: Three years, $11,025,000. Second and third years non-guaranteed. Signed using Non-Bird rights and acquired via sign-and-trade from Pelicans.
• Vit Krejci: Four years, $10,185,213. Second year partially guaranteed ($1.5MM). Third year non-guaranteed. Fourth-year team option. Re-signed using Non-Bird rights.

NBA 2024 Offseason Check-In: Atlanta Hawks

August 9th, 2024 at 8:31pm CST • By Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is checking in on the 2024 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, recapping the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll take a look at each team’s offseason moves and consider what might still be coming before the regular season begins. Today, we’re focusing on the Atlanta Hawks.

---

Free agent signings

• Cody Zeller: Three years, $11,025,000. Second and third years non-guaranteed. Signed using Non-Bird rights and acquired via sign-and-trade from Pelicans.
• Vit Krejci: Four years, $10,185,213. Second year partially guaranteed ($1.5MM). Third year non-guaranteed. Fourth-year team option. Re-signed using Non-Bird rights.

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Trades

• Acquired the draft rights to Nikola Djurisic (No. 43 pick) from the Heat in a three-team trade in exchange for the draft rights to Pelle Larsson (No. 44 pick) and cash.
• Acquired Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels, E.J. Liddell, Cody Zeller (sign-and-trade), the Lakers’ 2025 first-round pick, and either the Pelicans’ or Bucks’ 2027 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable; top-four protected) from the Pelicans in exchange for Dejounte Murray.
• Acquired David Roddy from the Suns in exchange for E.J. Liddell.

Draft picks

 

• 1-1: Zaccharie Risacher
  • Signed to rookie scale contract (four years, $57,027,436).
• 2-43: Nikola Djurisic
  • Unsigned.

    Two-way signings

    • Dominick Barlow
    • Seth Lundy
    • Keaton Wallace

    Departed/unsigned free agents

    • Saddiq Bey (Wizards)
    • Trent Forrest (Baskonia)
    • Wesley Matthews (unsigned)
    • Dylan Windler (unsigned)

    Other moves

    • Exercised Garrison Mathews‘ 2024/25 team option ($2,230,253).
    • Waived Bruno Fernando.

    Salary cap situation

    • Operating over the cap ($140.6MM) and below the luxury tax line ($170.8MM).
    • Carrying approximately $169.5MM in salary.
    • Hard-capped at $178,132,000.
    • Full mid-level, bi-annual exceptions available.
    • Two traded player exceptions available (largest worth $25,266,266).

    ---

    The offseason so far

    The Hawks’ offseason began with a bang, as the team unexpectedly landed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft lottery, moving up nine spots from No. 10 in the pre-lottery odds.In another year (say, 2023), that stroke of luck might’ve fundamentally changed the direction of the franchise. However, the 2024 draft class didn’t feature a generational prospect – or even a clear-cut top option – so moving up to first overall didn’t really alter Atlanta’s offseason goals. The team still had a backcourt situation to address, with either Dejounte Murray or Trae Young considered likely to be traded

    It was ultimately Murray who was on the move, sent to the Pelicans in exchange for a package that included a promising young guard (Dyson Daniels), a useful role player (Larry Nance Jr.), a couple salary-matching pieces, and some draft assets.While Atlanta made two more minor deals this summer, trade candidates like Young, Clint Capela, and De’Andre Hunter remain on the roster, with little indication that the club is aggressively looking to move any of them. And it was a quiet summer in free agency for the Hawks, whose only signings were Cody Zeller (part of the Murray deal via sign-and-trade) and Vit Krejci (who got a promotion after finishing last season on a two-way deal).The Hawks now appear caught somewhere in between contending and rebuilding. With Young, Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and rising star Jalen Johnson on the roster, Atlanta isn’t about to bottom out, but there’s not enough talent spread throughout the rest of the roster to make the team a legit threat to win the Eastern Conference. The development of No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher will also require some patience, as he’s unlikely to become a high-level rotation player right away.

    The Hawks’ roster underwent some changes this summer, but it still feels like more could be coming, either in the fall or at the 2025 trade deadline.

    ---

    Up next

    With Murray gone, I wouldn’t expect Young to go anywhere this summer or fall, but his situation will be worth monitoring going forward if the Hawks remain stuck in the middle. Capela is the more likely trade candidate in the short term, given that he’s entering a contract year and the club has his potential long-term replacement (23-year-old Onyeka Okongwu) under team control through 2028.The Hawks currently have 15 players on guaranteed standard deals and are operating just under the tax line, so if they do make a deal, they won’t want to take on any extra salary. It wouldn’t be a surprise if this is the group they take into the regular season.

    Even if that’s the case, there’s one more major contract situation to address: Johnson is eligible for a rookie scale extension up until October 21, the day before the regular season begins. And after a breakout year in which he averaged 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in 33.7 minutes per game across 56 contests, he’ll have some leverage in those negotiations.

    On the latest episode of Yahoo Sports’ No Cap Room podcast (YouTube link), Jake Fischer indicated that the fourth-year forward is hoping for a maximum-salary deal and that his agency – Klutch Sports – will likely open negotiations with Atlanta by asking for that amount, if that hasn’t happened already.“The Hawks made basically everyone available for trade since February besides him,” Fischer said. “So of course you’re going to be thinking, ‘Well, pay me that way.'”

    Still, as Fischer points out, Johnson has had some injury issues and played an extremely limited role prior to the 2023/24 season, so the Hawks won’t just hand him a maximum-salary contract. If that’s his demand, he’ll likely reach restricted free agency in 2025 and have to show in ’24/25 that he’s worth that sort of investment. If he’s willing to compromise with the club, perhaps the two sides will work something out by this year’s Oct. 21 deadline.

    No. 43 overall pick Nikola Djurisic‘s situation is also worth keeping an eye on. He’s one of the last remaining unsigned 2024 draftees, but he’s recovering from foot surgery and will miss the start of the season, while Atlanta doesn’t currently have a 15-man or two-way roster spot available.It’d be easy enough for the Hawks to open up a two-way spot if that’s the plan for Djurisic, but he looks like a candidate to become a draft-and-stash prospect. That would mean spending the 2024/25 season either playing overseas or as a member of the College Park Skyhawks, the Hawks’ G League affiliate.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2024/08/nba-2024-offseason-check-in-atlanta-hawks.html

[AHF]

Kind of surprised not to see Griffin's name under their list of trades (either as a 4th trade they didn't bother to cover or rolling it into the Djurisic deal).  I definitely think Johnson should not get a max deal.  His injury history is way too severe to do that and he has too little track record.  Even if you could assume 100% health and no regression, he would require significant further development to justify that kind of salary.  I do hope we find a compromise and he goes on to make that kind of a leap in his development.  I'd like to see him starting in Atlanta for a long time and definitely don't want to see us overpay someone after we've seen what happened with extensions under Schlenk.  Hopefully a mutually beneficial middle ground will be there that will give Jalen financial security for the rest of his life and the Hawks the opportunity to have someone outperforming their contract the next few years.

[JeffS17]

53 minutes ago, AHF said:

I do hope we find a compromise and he goes on to make that kind of a leap in his development.  I'd like to see him starting in Atlanta for a long time and definitely don't want to see us overpay someone after we've seen what happened with extensions under Schlenk.

This^^^

We badly need him on a reasonable deal.  If he can continue to produce at the same rates with increased usage, he will be a positive value asset, which will be huge for us going forward.  If we do end up maxing him before testing RFA, my good faith interpretation of that would say it's a strong signal they see him as the franchise player going forward and moving Trae next offseason becomes more likely.  Otherwise, why not test RFA?

[AHF]

31 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

This^^^

We badly need him on a reasonable deal.  If he can continue to produce at the same rates with increased usage, he will be a positive value asset, which will be huge for us going forward.  If we do end up maxing him before testing RFA, my good faith interpretation of that would say it's a strong signal they see him as the franchise player going forward and moving Trae next offseason becomes more likely.  Otherwise, why not test RFA?

While I've not been a real fan of several of Landry's moves, he has done a much better job leveraging RFA than his predecessor.  I'm tentatively optimistic he won't do anything rash.  If you are going to pay Jalen at the end of the day, there is no rush.  You might as well go into next offseason with the lower cap hold before you actually sign him to that max deal.

[JayBirdHawk]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

You might as well go into next offseason with the lower cap hold before you actually sign him to that max deal.

I'm an advocate of this. (Similar to  Maxi/Sixers last year)

[Wretch]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The Hawks now appear caught somewhere in between contending and rebuilding. With Young, Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and rising star Jalen Johnson on the roster, Atlanta isn’t about to bottom out, but there’s not enough talent spread throughout the rest of the roster to make the team a legit threat to win the Eastern Conference. The development of No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher will also require some patience, as he’s unlikely to become a high-level rotation player right away.

• The Hawks’ roster underwent some changes this summer, but it still feels like more could be coming, either in the fall or at the 2025 trade deadline.

The parts in bold caught my eye.  Sums up my thoughts precisely.

Speaking of JJ, one thing that's been on my mind over the last few days...  I might need to raise my personal expectations for him and the team.  He could absolutely blossom in the #2 role as a better fit than Murray.  Certainly an x-factor for our postseason hopes.

[benhillboy]

51 minutes ago, AHF said:

While I've not been a real fan of several of Landry's moves, he has done a much better job leveraging RFA than his predecessor.  I'm tentatively optimistic he won't do anything rash.  If you are going to pay Jalen at the end of the day, there is no rush.  You might as well go into next offseason with the lower cap hold before you actually sign him to that max deal.

Here’s were BBall Index placed him in terms of LEBRON contract value last season.  Games missed are a factor:

Ranges from 13 to 11 million.

I don’t know what to make of his defensive awareness/ positioning/ reading yet.  I need about 50 more games.  Metrics suggest he’s pretty good.  John improved next to Clint, hopefully Jalen can make that jump to solid consistency.

Edited August 12 by benhillboy