Donovan Clingan or Alexander Sarr: Battle of 1st overall pick

[sturt]

15 minutes ago, thecampster said:

For the 49 people who responded Sarr, maybe you should ask them the following, what evidence do they have that he'll play significant positive minutes this year and will be able to stay on the floor vs big centers. Whose minutes between Clint's, OO's, Jalen's will he take or what will his WAR be against those 3 players? And lastly ask them how we'll sign any impactful vet with only $3 million under the 2nd LT threshold.

Yeah, I'm just innocently asking the question, of course, with no dog in this fight whatsoever and just interested in your reasoning.

[AHF]

17 minutes ago, thecampster said:

For the 49 people who responded Sarr, maybe you should ask them the following, what evidence do they have that he'll play significant positive minutes this year and will be able to stay on the floor vs big centers. Whose minutes between Clint's, OO's, Jalen's will he take or what will his WAR be against those 3 players? And lastly ask them how we'll sign any impactful vet with only $3 million under the 2nd LT threshold.

This is why the big move for the offseason is trading DJM and possibly Hunter and/or CC (and/or perhaps others).  You are flipping those guys for better fitting talent.  That is more impact than we will get from any FA signing or draft pick.

[AHF]

There are a number of posts focused on the credibility of other posters.  Please stop focusing on that and get back to basketball discussion.  Feel free to take on the issues with the post but leave the poster focused content on the cutting room floor.

[marco102]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

For the 49 people who responded Sarr, maybe you should ask them the following, what evidence do they have that he'll play significant positive minutes this year and will be able to stay on the floor vs big centers. Whose minutes between Clint's, OO's, Jalen's will he take or what will his WAR be against those 3 players? And lastly ask them how we'll sign any impactful vet with only $3 million under the 2nd LT threshold.

I'll bite.

I don't see any rookie we draft impacting winning right now.  The Hawks were not supposed to get the number 1 pick. You take the pick you believe has the most upside and not a terrible floor.  You develop him over time. 

To me that's Sarr. 

They need to make othe moves to complete this roster to compete this season. The draft is a swing for the fences for me.

I'll ask you the next question.  If all players in the draft hit their highest outcomes, who is the player you think will be the best?

Edited June 20 by marco102

[sturt]

3 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I don't see any rookie we draft impacting winning right now.  The Hawks were not supposed to get the number 1 pick. You take the pick you believe has the most upside and not a terrible floor.  You develop him over time. 

To me that's Sarr. 

If that's determined to be the best philosophy to follow... and it very well may be, I'm not saying it is or isn't, and I'm not going to invest the time to study and take a hardened position on it... then, but, consistency would seem to suggest now is the time to rebuild. Yes? No? Maybe?

 

 

[marco102]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

If that's determined to be the best philosophy to follow... and it very well may be, I'm not saying it is or isn't, and I'm not going to invest the time to study and take a hardened position on it... then, but, consistency would seem to suggest now is the time to rebuild. Yes? No? Maybe?

 

 

I  got lost man. Maybe?

[sturt]

1 minute ago, marco102 said:

I  got lost man. Maybe?

Maybe I should have been clearer...

 

I took your post to assert that the priority has to be drafting for the long term highest likely benefit/asset, and that, even though in the short term, the roster probably wouldn't benefit in any significant way.

 

So, isn't that just what the hamster ordered... more wheel to run in place... you're not expecting to improve for 24-25 to any significant degree using this one high-value lever you have at your disposal. Thus, no real reason to anticipate progress... and by the time your #1 develops, you will have already lost pieces you currently like as a consequence of free agency.

 

Sooo... begs the question... wouldn't that situation call for a rebuild instead... wouldn't that be more aligned with that longer-term philosophy?

[marco102]

10 minutes ago, sturt said:

Maybe I should have been clearer...

 

I took your post to assert that the priority has to be drafting for the long term highest likely benefit/asset, and that, even though in the short term, the roster probably wouldn't benefit in any significant way.

 

So, isn't that just what the hamster ordered... more wheel to run in place... you're not expecting to improve for 24-25 to any significant degree using this one high-value lever you have at your disposal. Thus, no real reason to anticipate progress... and by the time your #1 develops, you will have already lost pieces you currently like as a consequence of free agency.

 

Sooo... begs the question... wouldn't that situation call for a rebuild instead... wouldn't that be more aligned with that longer-term philosophy?

No. You only considered half my post.

I said swing for the fences with the draft and build the rest of the roster through trades, free agency, and trade exceptions.

The likely hood a rookie coming in a making a big contribution right away are slim so if you want immediate success, the best approach is trades, trade exceptions and free agency.

[sturt]

32 minutes ago, marco102 said:

build the rest of the roster through trades, free agency, and trade exceptions.

I've not studied it, but according to what I read @thecampster post, which is consistent with the last time I was paying attention, it's a fallacy to imagine you're going to add talent in trades or free agency at this stage. Where is his assessment wrong?

Granted, you do still have about 8 days in which that JC trade exception could be somehow used... so perhaps there's something to be gained from that even this late.

Granted, too, if APR were to have some conversion experience, struck down by light on the way to Decatur or Damascus or something like that, perhaps your strategy could anticipate adding consequential talent for 24-25 through a trade that adds salary (ostensibly meaning APR pays some tax)... or who knows, maybe you can make use of MLE in free agency that secures a consequential talent.

Failing either of those, not seeing it. Should draft the best plug-and-play player available if you really want to see them compete for 24-25, because you really don't have any other rational path to that outcome it seems.

 

  

33 minutes ago, marco102 said:

if you want immediate success

If you don't, though, it seems reasonable in that case to "swing for the fences."

 

[Sothron]

9 hours ago, AHF said:

Mikey and Sothron both said Sarr has already worked out with the Hawks.

I was yelled at for confirming Mikey's post by that source. I still stand by what I posted. I cannot say anything else about workouts. Take that FWIW.

[theheroatl]

1 hour ago, Sothron said:

I was yelled at for confirming Mikey's post by that source. I still stand by what I posted. I cannot say anything else about workouts. Take that FWIW.

yelled at? What kind of abuse you taking 

 

Wink twice if Landry has you locked in a closet

Edited June 20 by theheroatl

[deester11]

6 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Just like you told the board about Sarr magical visit

Ouch. 

[AHF]

6 hours ago, sturt said:

I've not studied it, but according to what I read @thecampster post, which is consistent with the last time I was paying attention, it's a fallacy to imagine you're going to add talent in trades or free agency at this stage. Where is his assessment wrong?

Granted, you do still have about 8 days in which that JC trade exception could be somehow used... so perhaps there's something to be gained from that even this late.

Granted, too, if APR were to have some conversion experience, struck down by light on the way to Decatur or Damascus or something like that, perhaps your strategy could anticipate adding consequential talent for 24-25 through a trade that adds salary (ostensibly meaning APR pays some tax)... or who knows, maybe you can make use of MLE in free agency that secures a consequential talent.

Failing either of those, not seeing it. Should draft the best plug-and-play player available if you really want to see them compete for 24-25, because you really don't have any other rational path to that outcome it seems.

 

  

If you don't, though, it seems reasonable in that case to "swing for the fences."

 

Trading for better fitting players to me is the single biggest thing that can be done to improve this team.  If we simply never played Trae and DJM together and only paired them with Bogi and Bufkin we would be a significantly improved team.  Trading DJM for talent that fits could be a big move to improve this team and this roster year over year.

In addition, we had an abundant lack of wing and PF depth last year and the numbers showed it was devastating to us when either Hunter or JJ was out because we were then staring people like Mat(t)hews and had worse coming off the bench we stunk.  Having higher quality depth so the dropoff when they are unavailable is no longer “toonces driving off a cliff” level bad should also significantly improve the team year over year and that can be done as part of trades or even minimum contract FAs who simply are better than last year’s options.   (Internal development of Gueye, Vit, Bufkin, and AJ could also be a boon to quality depth.  Although I think it is unlikely all leap forward if say 2 of them did it would be big.)

Even if our pick has a JJ-as-a-rookie season (which I don’t expect), there are several low hanging fruit opportunities for significant year over year improvement in my mind.

[Gray Mule]

Clingan to replace Capela on the roster?  This seems to be some "experts" are saying right now.  

He's a winner from college and this is important.  He's a real 7 ft. center.  Hawks needing size, this fits.

Sarr, the expected #1 pick, may slip to #2.  I want him but if he's not the pick, I'll not cry too much.

If Capela is going, what do we get in exchange?  Perhaps draft picks, this season or in the future, 1st or 2nd round.  This way his payroll hit disappears, replaced by our #1 rookie draft pick.  

Hawks will be fighting to stay under the payroll tax for another season.  I believe that our draft pick plus all three draft picks from last season will make up a part of our final 15 roster players.  This leaves 11 spots.  Who stays?  Who goes?

[Final_quest]

9 hours ago, thecampster said:

For the 49 people who responded Sarr, maybe you should ask them the following, what evidence do they have that he'll play significant positive minutes this year and will be able to stay on the floor vs big centers. Whose minutes between Clint's, OO's, Jalen's will he take or what will his WAR be against those 3 players? And lastly ask them how we'll sign any impactful vet with only $3 million under the 2nd LT threshold.

I can’t seem to get a good answer to these questions either.  

Not sure people realize that the G league exhibition games are about the only time Sarr put up stat lines like that.  Also, he’s mostly dunking in the highlight reels of that game, or hitting a wide open three. There’s no tape of a game where he shows a skilled offensive bag.

Everyone is looking at an exhibition highlight reel and ignoring what he does or doesn’t do in actual games.

 

[AHF]

My short answer is I expect OO or CC to be our starting center next year if we draft Sarr and our starter would matchup with an opposing big center.  Bruno or whoever is on our bench would be another option.  Sarr would get minutes against PFs and mobile/stretch centers unless Quin thought he was ready to check the bulls of the position (which I don’t expect from him early in his career).

[thecampster]

Again, I posted the extended cut of Sarr film. Same highlights, but also tons of bad picks, fumbled passes, travels and missed open shots.

People see a made open 3 and say, "man can he shoot", then look at his % of 28% and shoukd say, "oh, that's why he's being left open from 3.  He is missing almost 3/4 of the 3's he takes and most of those are no hands in his face.  Those possessions of 6'7" 235lb PFs bullying him on the post for an easy 2 were all I needed to see. Basically, guys like DeAndre Hunter's size were working him on post ups.  WTF is he going to do when Stephen Adams and Joel Embiid start throwing him around?

Edited June 20 by thecampster

[deester11]

6 hours ago, sturt said:

I've not studied it, but according to what I read @thecampster post, which is consistent with the last time I was paying attention, it's a fallacy to imagine you're going to add talent in trades or free agency at this stage. Where is his assessment wrong?

Wait. Let me see if I understand what you’re saying. You’re saying that it is unimaginable that the Hawks are going to trade for more talent? Free agency is not even the biggest issue with this team and shouldn’t even be a factor. It’s all about trades because with this team there is no particular reason to go into the season with the exact same team. And if by some stroke of nonsense, you’ve decided to go with the same team, anybody that you draft is not going to see playing time anyway.

When is Clingan going to play if Clint  is still a hawk? What happens to 00? This team needs to be re-shaped not rebuilt. As such I’m looking at the draft as a bonus and I am swinging for upside which is Sarr. Barring that, whomever they draft will probably not be counted on to alter the trajectory of the team much.

[deester11]

36 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Again, I posted the extended cut of Sarr film. Same highlights, but also tons of bad picks, fumbled passes, travels and missed open shots.

People see a made open 3 and say, "man can he shoot", then look at his % of 28% and shoukd say, "oh, that's why he's being left open from 3.  He is missing almost 3/4 of the 3's he takes and most of those are no hands in his face.  Those possessions of 6'7" 235lb PFs bullying him on the post for an easy 2 were all I needed to see. Basically, guys like DeAndre Hunter's size were working him on post ups.  WTF is he going to do when Stephen Adams and Joel Embiid start throwing him around?

You really think he's going to be bodying Centers out the gate? Anybody who's a proponent of Sarr knows he's not going to bang right away. The whole thing with him is projection and highlights be damned, your favorite player in this draft is also a projection. For the umpteenth time, whomever they draft, they better be relying on the rest of the roster construction or it won't matter anyway.   

Edited June 20 by deester11

[Mikey]

5 hours ago, Sothron said:

I was yelled at for confirming Mikey's post by that source. I still stand by what I posted. I cannot say anything else about workouts. Take that FWIW.

He was in the building. One my source unlike the sources most of the people here have actually works in the building. His flight to Washington was from ATL. I assumed it was for a workout. Maybe it was to tell them he isn't wasting time with them but he was certainly there