Donovan Clingan or Alexander Sarr: Battle of 1st overall pick

[Threezus]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

In certain roles a rookie can hold down a position. It’s all in what you ask of them.

once we draft sarr, Synder and his staff should be telling him his primary focus this season will be defense. Not to say don’t work on the offensive skills (let’s not be silly)…but we don’t need to scheme around sarrs offense right now.

defensively sarr can help us immediately. This is no different than lively for the mavs or Chet for okc…or mobleys rookie season for the Cavs,

As i've said before thats the one thing about this team that works out well for him and makes us a great match.   Clint and Onyeka don't really give you much on offense most the time anyways.  So anything Sarr can give you near what they do is a bonus.  If he end sup able to give you more than thats gonna be huge.  Offense is the one thing we have in spades and with Trae's usage sarr won't be asked very much at all right away to do tons on offense.   He might have to on other teams but here it's the last thing we need from him its the elite defense we need right away to help us the most. 

[Threezus]

9 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Nobody should be scouting anyone but Sarr! If you are you’re probably wasting your time. There I said it, I’m a little scared I said it.

 

Can the Hawks go to the podium like right now and announce it? 
 

The more I scout dude the more I can’t believe he’s 7’1”. That’s crazy. 

To be fair i said the same thing about Luka in their draft and then we picked him and i thought the Hawks did the right think for once and took the best player in the draft who fell to them.  We see how that all turned out and i didn't think they could mess that up XD.    So yeah i don't trust them we have multiple times and more often than not refuse to take the guy considered the BPA and most upside and went with the guy trying to out think everyone else.   

This is going to be a terrible take and hard for me to say but i sorta just for once finally want to take what eveyone else considers the BPA and highest upside guy no matter what.   If he flops then he flops i can live with that knowing we shot for the moon and failed.  What i can't live with over and over again is settling for a lesser player just because he is your guy and then still failing over and over again while the BPA high ceiling guy goes elsewhere and succeeds.    Im honestly 100% ok at this point shooting for the stars even if it fails That won't piss me off as much.

[deester11]

6 hours ago, Threezus said:

To be fair i said the same thing about Luka in their draft and then we picked him and i thought the Hawks did the right think for once and took the best player in the draft who fell to them.  We see how that all turned out and i didn't think they could mess that up XD.    So yeah i don't trust them we have multiple times and more often than not refuse to take the guy considered the BPA and most upside and went with the guy trying to out think everyone else.   

This is going to be a terrible take and hard for me to say but i sorta just for once finally want to take what eveyone else considers the BPA and highest upside guy no matter what.   If he flops then he flops i can live with that knowing we shot for the moon and failed.  What i can't live with over and over again is settling for a lesser player just because he is your guy and then still failing over and over again while the BPA high ceiling guy goes elsewhere and succeeds.    Im honestly 100% ok at this point shooting for the stars even if it fails That won't piss me off as much.

This is a secondary viewpoint for me but I feel this post.  Sarr is almost the no brainer pick in a draft where 3-30 could be the same players: depth and nothing more.  Scouting is inexact but for once, there is more consensus that Sarr has the biggest upside of anyone in this draft than those who think he'll never reach it.

I get it. He has a lot of work to do, but he's exactly the type of prospect you dream on and plan for.  The overthinking with this organization has always been an Achilles heel.  For once...I would like to see A Falcon-esque "screw you" by taking the player no one saw us being able to get:Sarr. 

Edited May 30 by deester11

[AHF]

A Falcons-esque pick would be us taking the player we had on the board as being the highest upside guy who other teams did not rate that high that shocks the rest of the NBA, right?  I feel like the analogy to the Hawks pick would be closer to taking Daulton Knecht at #1 (older highly productive player that is projected high in the draft but who the Hawks rank higher on their board than everyone else and who will leave jaws dropped if picked at our draft slot).  

[deester11]

56 minutes ago, AHF said:

A Falcons-esque pick would be us taking the player we had on the board as being the highest upside guy who other teams did not rate that high that shocks the rest of the NBA, right?  I feel like the analogy to the Hawks pick would be closer to taking Daulton Knecht at #1 (older highly productive player that is projected high in the draft but who the Hawks rank higher on their board than everyone else and who will leave jaws dropped if picked at our draft slot).  

I threw up.  But I just mean don't over think Sarr IF he is the guy. Now IF he is not, trade down and draft some marginal guy.  

[AHF]

1 minute ago, deester11 said:

I threw up.  But I just mean don't over think Sarr IF he is the guy. Now IF he is not, trade down and draft some marginal guy.  

Sarr is also the guy I want.  I just don't think he is the parallel to what the Falcons did.  (And in defense of the Falcons I'll also say that QB is a different position than any position in the NBA as far as importance to the franchise.)

[Packfill]

1 hour ago, deester11 said:

This is a secondary viewpoint for me but I feel this post.  Sarr is almost the no brainer pick in a draft where 3-30 could be the same players: depth and nothing more.  Scouting is inexact but for once, there is more consensus that Sarr has the biggest upside of anyone in this draft than those who think he'll never reach it.

I get it. He has a lot of work to do, but he's exactly the type of prospect you dream on and plan for.  The overthinking with this organization has always been an Achilles heel.  For once...I would like to see A Falcon-esque "screw you" by taking the player no one saw us being able to get:Sarr. 

Sarr has considerable upside but he is not the type of guy you dream about being able to get when you have the number 1 pick.  He is not Wemby, Shaq, Lebron, etc.  That is okay - obviously there isn't anyone like that in this draft - but let's be honest about the opportunity here.  

And please do not do a Falcons style pick!  Sarr, to be clear, would not be a Penix like pick at all.  

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, Packfill said:

Sarr has considerable upside but he is not the type of guy you dream about being able to get when you have the number 1 pick.  He is not Wemby, Shaq, Lebron, etc.  That is okay - obviously there isn't anyone like that in this draft - but let's be honest about the opportunity here.  

And please do not do a Falcons style pick!  Sarr, to be clear, would not be a Penix like pick at all.  

Maybe, but I'd argue that being an Evan Mobley type is definitely within reach for him, and that is a positive outcome for a #1 overall pick.  

Let's look at the player archetypes of both of these guys and which player within that archetype is the most likely outcome.

My vision with Sarr has his floor as Nic Claxton with a very likely outcome that he's another Evan Mobley.  I am listening to a podcast though that compared him to Clint Capela at the same age and feels like Capela is his floor.  I thought it was interesting, because I think Sarr has a better base of additional skills.  

With Zaccharie Risacher, I'm thinking a Trey Murphy type is a likely outcome.  

[KB21]

2024 NBA Draft: Alex Sarr has taken a unique path as the projected No. 1 pick - Yahoo Sports

Quote

"The professional route just suits me better as a player and has helped me develop my game better," Alex Sarr told Yahoo Sports last fall. "The spacing allows me more freedom and versatility, so that’s why I chose to play in the NBL and not college."

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"Not finishing the season never crossed my mind, not once," Sarr told Yahoo Sports in November. "I committed to this team, and I'm going to play all the way until the end. I came here to get better and improve, and you can only improve if you're on the court playing against real competition."

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"The NBA is evolving and becoming more positionless, so even at my size, I have to be able to guard every position and feel comfortable with the ball in my hands," Sarr said. "I feel like I’ve always been able to play on the perimeter and it’s nothing new or uncomfortable for me to step outside of the paint and make plays."

This dude is going to fit very well with Quin's mindset as a coach.  

[Packfill]

6 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Maybe, but I'd argue that being an Evan Mobley type is definitely within reach for him, and that is a positive outcome for a #1 overall pick.  

Let's look at the player archetypes of both of these guys and which player within that archetype is the most likely outcome.

My vision with Sarr has his floor as Nic Claxton with a very likely outcome that he's another Evan Mobley.  I am listening to a podcast though that compared him to Clint Capela at the same age and feels like Capela is his floor.  I thought it was interesting, because I think Sarr has a better base of additional skills.  

With Zaccharie Risacher, I'm thinking a Trey Murphy type is a likely outcome.  

I don't disagree with your assessment of outcomes, but I do think it will take Sarr longer to get there then Mobley - meaning I think he is not as likely to come in day one and be a plus contributor like Mobley.  Over time, yes, I think he can get there and that would be a great outcome for the Hawks.  I do have some Brad Sellers vibes though which I hope I am wrong on.

Risacher I see more in the mold of someone who will ultimately guard 3s and 4s, rather than 2s and 3s like Murphy - so maybe more Cam Johnson or Franz Wagner.  

[KB21]

5 minutes ago, Packfill said:

I don't disagree with your assessment of outcomes, but I do think it will take Sarr longer to get there then Mobley - meaning I think he is not as likely to come in day one and be a plus contributor like Mobley.  Over time, yes, I think he can get there and that would be a great outcome for the Hawks.  I do have some Brad Sellers vibes though which I hope I am wrong on.

Risacher I see more in the mold of someone who will ultimately guard 3s and 4s, rather than 2s and 3s like Murphy - so maybe more Cam Johnson or Franz Wagner.  

I see a lot more creation ability with Wagner, and if Risacher isn't a legitimate 6'10", then any comparison to Wagner goes out the window.  

[Packfill]

12 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I see a lot more creation ability with Wagner, and if Risacher isn't a legitimate 6'10", then any comparison to Wagner goes out the window.  

Agreed, but I think there is some upside to get to a Wagner level and that would also be great for the Hawks.

[KB21]

1 minute ago, Packfill said:

Agreed, but I think there is some upside to get to a Wagner level and that would also be great for the Hawks.

He would have to show significantly more off the dribble and as a passer.  I think Buzelis is more in line with Wagner.

[AtLaS]

41 minutes ago, Packfill said:

I don't disagree with your assessment of outcomes, but I do think it will take Sarr longer to get there then Mobley - meaning I think he is not as likely to come in day one and be a plus contributor like Mobley.  Over time, yes, I think he can get there and that would be a great outcome for the Hawks.  I do have some Brad Sellers vibes though which I hope I am wrong on.

Risacher I see more in the mold of someone who will ultimately guard 3s and 4s, rather than 2s and 3s like Murphy - so maybe more Cam Johnson or Franz Wagner.  

I'm not sure why people think that Sarr can't contribute like Mobley early.  He's over an inch taller and 15 lbs heavier than Mobley was.  His per36 numbers are similar to Mobley's one year in college.  The NBL is better probably better competition than the NCAA too.  Every player in the NBL is a pro.  Every player in the NCAA is not a pro and most will not be.

Coming into an established offensive system with a player like Trae he's not going to be forced to do things.  He can play defense, press the break and rim run.  Not saying he will put up 15/10 next year but I think 12/9 is an absolute possibility if we give him minutes.  

[Packfill]

34 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

I'm not sure why people think that Sarr can't contribute like Mobley early.  He's over an inch taller and 15 lbs heavier than Mobley was.  His per36 numbers are similar to Mobley's one year in college.  The NBL is better probably better competition than the NCAA too.  Every player in the NBL is a pro.  Every player in the NCAA is not a pro and most will not be.

Coming into an established offensive system with a player like Trae he's not going to be forced to do things.  He can play defense, press the break and rim run.  Not saying he will put up 15/10 next year but I think 12/9 is an absolute possibility if we give him minutes.  

While LaMelo and Giddey were able to translate production at in the Australian NBL to production in the NBA very early in their careers, I think Sarr is going to need more development to get there as he was not as impactful in the NBL as those guys were at the same age.  Hopefully, Sarr's development is a lot quicker than Ousmane Dieng.

 

[AHF]

42 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

I'm not sure why people think that Sarr can't contribute like Mobley early.  He's over an inch taller and 15 lbs heavier than Mobley was.  His per36 numbers are similar to Mobley's one year in college.  The NBL is better probably better competition than the NCAA too.  Every player in the NBL is a pro.  Every player in the NCAA is not a pro and most will not be.

Coming into an established offensive system with a player like Trae he's not going to be forced to do things.  He can play defense, press the break and rim run.  Not saying he will put up 15/10 next year but I think 12/9 is an absolute possibility if we give him minutes.  

Mobley averaged 33.8 mpg along with 15 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 0.7 steals, and 2.5 assists as a rookie. 

Sarr played just over 17 minutes in an Australian pro league and we are now looking to project his rookie production in the NBA.  I think you have to be really, really optimistic for Sarr's projected minutes to think he will contribute anything like Mobley early.  I expect him to have a much slower buildup in terms of minutes than you do, apparently.  Saying "if we give him 34 mpg" is like saying "if he learns to dunk from the 3pt line" to me.  Neither is going to happen.

[Jody23]

 

[AtLaS]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

Mobley averaged 33.8 mpg along with 15 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 0.7 steals, and 2.5 assists as a rookie. 

Sarr played just over 17 minutes in an Australian pro league and we are now looking to project his rookie production in the NBA.  I think you have to be really, really optimistic for Sarr's projected minutes to think he will contribute anything like Mobley early.  I expect him to have a much slower buildup in terms of minutes than you do, apparently.  Saying "if we give him 34 mpg" is like saying "if he learns to dunk from the 3pt line" to me.  Neither is going to happen.

Agreed we won't give him 34 mpg as a rookie.  I moreso meant his ability to contribute early is being understated IMO.  I think his per36 could look similar in his rookie season.

[terrell]

11 hours ago, Threezus said:

To be fair i said the same thing about Luka in their draft and then we picked him and i thought the Hawks did the right think for once and took the best player in the draft who fell to them.  We see how that all turned out and i didn't think they could mess that up XD.    So yeah i don't trust them we have multiple times and more often than not refuse to take the guy considered the BPA and most upside and went with the guy trying to out think everyone else.   

This is going to be a terrible take and hard for me to say but i sorta just for once finally want to take what eveyone else considers the BPA and highest upside guy no matter what.   If he flops then he flops i can live with that knowing we shot for the moon and failed.  What i can't live with over and over again is settling for a lesser player just because he is your guy and then still failing over and over again while the BPA high ceiling guy goes elsewhere and succeeds.    Im honestly 100% ok at this point shooting for the stars even if it fails That won't piss me off as much.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, AtLaS said:

Agreed we won't give him 34 mpg as a rookie.  I moreso meant his ability to contribute early is being understated IMO.  I think his per36 could look similar in his rookie season.

On a per minute basis his production was very strong in Australia but he couldn't earn the minutes to make it add up.  I would guess we see an unusually low number of total minutes for Sarr as a rookie.  Probably among the lowest ever for players taken at #1 overall.