Donovan Clingan or Alexander Sarr: Battle of 1st overall pick

[JayBirdHawk]

Remember, the Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to provide a solid estimate of how the Draft could play out (Last update: June 20, 8:01 a.m. ET

• There’s a new No. 1! A week out from the Draft, nine of the 10 mocks have been updated, and Zaccharie Risacher has overtaken fellow Frenchman and previous consensus No. 1 Alexandre Sarr by a 5-4 margin. Yet Sarr fills the second slot in each draft he’s not listed first, while Risacher slides as low as No. 4 on one card, so the center retains his lead on points.
• While Kentucky sharpshooter Reed Sheppard has continued firming up a lock on the No. 3 slot, Connecticut guard Stephon Castle is quickly gaining a hold on No. 4.
• Just behind them, G League Ignite forward Matas Buzelis and Castle’s UConn teammate, Donovan Clingan, are locking into a tight band between No. 5 and No. 7.
• The late lottery includes a quartet of risers, with scoring threats Robert Dillingham and Ron Holland II being joined by defensive stalwarts Cody Williams and Devin Carter. Each move up at least two slots in this update.
• As for Holland, his positioning contains the most volatility of anyone on the board: as high as No. 2 (SB Nation) and off the board for Yahoo and USA Today/FTW.
• The knee injury suffered by Serbian prospect Nikola Topic, who has a partially torn ACL, has driven a further slide down to No. 12. A patient team could reap large rewards …
• The third French prospect in the lottery mix, Tidjane Salaun, appears a lottery lock, though toward the back end as of now (No. 13, down from No. 9)
• Returning to the Consensus Lottery is Isaiah Collier, who replaces Ja’Kobe Walter in the final lottery slot.
• Nine players appear in the lottery in 9 updated mocks we surveyed: Alexandre Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, Matas Buzelis, Donovan Clingan, Dalton Knecht, Cody Williams and Tidjane Salaun. Nikola Topic and Ron Holland II slid off a pair of boards.

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MOST COMMON PICKS

No. 1 (Hawks): Zaccharie Risacher (5)

No. 2 (Wizards): Alexandre Sarr (5)

No. 3 (Rockets): Reed Sheppard (7)

No. 4 (Spurs): Stephon Castle (5)

No. 5 (Pistons): Matas Buzelis (5)

No. 6 (Hornets): Stephon Castle (3)

No. 7 (Trail Blazers): Donovan Clingan (5)

No. 8 (Spurs): Tidjane Salaun (3)

No. 9 (Grizzlies): Devin Carter, Ron Holland II, Dalton Knecht (2)

No. 10 (Jazz): Dalton Knecht (3)

No. 11 (Bulls): Robert Dillingham (3)

No. 12 (Thunder): Cody Williams (3)

No. 13 (Kings): Tidjane Salaun (2)

No. 14 (Trail Blazers): Kyshawn George, Tidjane Salaun (2)

Consensus Mock Draft: Zaccharie Risacher rising toward No. 1 | NBA.com

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

Here's what I'm saying, just objectively from 30,000 feet.

[macdaddy]

21 minutes ago, thecampster said:

LOL - maybe you

Ok Landry.  

[Bonzaii58]

Clingan is growing on me. But we need to figure out a way to get someone like Marcus Smart or Caruso, too. I am tired of us being bullied. The only pick I’d be unhappy about is Risacher. 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I don’t think we have to get the “exact” right players and that there could be multiple possible trades that would work.

We'll have to... strongly... agree to... strongly... disagree on that, my friend.

Maybe if this was just a local YMCA league, where the only consideration was plain talent, and the stakes weren't so high that it would be relatively simple to persuade another squad to switch up some guys.

29 other teams might seem like a lot of potential trade partners, but once you shave off of that number the teams actually having the type of talent at the position at the age/experience level you think will work... and then shaving down that number of teams to just the ones that you have something they would... not just consider sufficiently equivalent, but a higher bar, that they would want... and then shaving down that number to just the ones where the contracts can match up and/or there's adequate draft pick inventory that can level out the trade to both sides' satsifaction...

My opinion is that that's working backward from a much-preferred conclusion, and minimizing the obstacles in order to justify the optimism. We're just not going to agree.

Mark it down. June 20, 2024... the day that AHF and sturt first came to different conclusions... wow, we're finally here, who knew.

[theheroatl]

I thought Sarr would solidify himself after the lottery but the two excuses mocks are making is Hawks flying to see Risachers game and Sarr not working out...

 

I think they are pulling a Banchero and drafting Sarr.

 

There has been a lot of grasping at straws by media this cycle.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

We'll have to... strongly... agree to... strongly... disagree on that, my friend.

Maybe if this was just a local YMCA league, where the only consideration was plain talent, and the stakes weren't so high that it would be relatively simple to persuade another squad to switch up some guys.

29 other teams might seem like a lot of potential trade partners, but once you shave off of that number the teams actually having the type of talent at the position at the age/experience level you think will work... and then shaving down that number of teams to just the ones that you have something they would... not just consider sufficiently equivalent, but a higher bar, that they would want... and then shaving down that number to just the ones where the contracts can match up and/or there's adequate draft pick inventory that can level out the trade to both sides' satsifaction...

My opinion is that that's working backward from a much-preferred conclusion, and minimizing the obstacles in order to justify the optimism. We're just not going to agree.

Mark it down. June 20, 2024... the day that AHF and sturt first came to different conclusions... wow, we're finally here, who knew.

If the exact right player to get in a DJM trade is Mikael Bridges let me give you several alternatives just for shooting guards that would improve our team year over year, imo:

1) DJM for Herb Jones and filler

2) DJM for KCP and a pick

3) DJM + Sac pick for Bane

4) DJM + Sac pick for Devin Vassell

5) DJM for Jalen Suggs + filler

I could keep going all day with trades at other positions.  There are lots of trades that could improve this team year over year.  The bar is low for trades that wouldn't given that simply reducing DJM's playing time to 18 mpg and Trae's to 30 mpg and never playing them together would instantly improve this team substantially, imo.  

[terrell]

Wes is clearly on the Clingan train...

 

Edited June 20 by terrell

[Hawkmoor]

4 hours ago, KB21 said:

They literally are not an iso heavy offense.  They run the PNR as part of Quin's motion offense.  Quin f***ing invented 5 slot this year.  

The Slot 5 is another reason you draft Sarr and not Clingan.  Slot 5 is just switching your 4 and 5 in positions in your 5 out offense.  Its small but it IS big.  I give props to Quin or whoever came up with that on his coaching staff.  The problem goes back to my main bane with the Hawks.  Slot 5 gives Jalen Johnson more control of the offense.  How often do the Hawks run slot 5 when Trae want to run pick and roll? 

My position on the slot 5 goes back to my whole premise about Quin.  Quin has me thinking he isn't forward thinking because my eyes tell me that Trae is still the focus of the offense.  The slot 5 opened up Jalen Johnson but how much of Jalen are we gonna be allowed to see?  Sarr being soo versatile can also really shine in that Slot 5 also because you don't HAVE to 45 cut him to the rim because he can just stand in the slot and shoot from there.  You are not doing that with Clingan or Edey.  They are 45 cut ONLY and I question them even effectively being able to do that at the NBA level.  I almost forgot why I'm even responding to you. Oh yes, Quin.  I will give you THAT. The slot 5 IS forward thinking.  Now get the best players to fit that scheme.

[Hawkish]

1 hour ago, terrell said:

Wes is clearly on the Clingan train...

 

I kind of miss those guys.

[Hawkmoor]

My bad.  Board acting up so I had to delete what I posted here.

Edited June 20 by Hawkmoor

[Final_quest]

4 hours ago, warcore said:

I guess you chose to just disregard my entire bit about him taking Dre's and Bey's minutes. 

When have we seen Dre or Bey assigned to guard Embiid or Adams? 

I'm happy to respond to your posts, but not if you're picking and choosing what to ignore. 

And just in case it's no clear, the above means CC and OO would still be guarding those players. (If they're still here). 

This is an interesting take that I've heard/seen a couple times.  One thing you are highlighting is the positional dilemma with Sarr.  The other thing you are saying is that drafting Sarr requires you to keep both CC and OO.  That kinda sucks, right?  Where do you see Sarr long term?  

[Hawkmoor]

4 hours ago, theheroatl said:

I thought Sarr would solidify himself after the lottery but the two excuses mocks are making is Hawks flying to see Risachers game and Sarr not working out...

 

I think they are pulling a Banchero and drafting Sarr.

 

There has been a lot of grasping at straws by media this cycle.

But why would the Hawks have to play ANY games when they hold the number 1 pick?  I don't get that. Its really simple. This is not directed at you. I'm just talking in general. Everyone knew Wemby was going to San Antonio well before the draft.  This is different.  I believe the rumors have merit.  I believe the Hawks are keeping every option on the table up until the draft itself.  I believe if Wemby was in this draft and the Hawks had the number 1 pick that they still would play this up until the draft and rumors would abound that have merit. I believe the Hawks are overthinking this and want to get the best fit and not the best player.

Edited June 20 by Hawkmoor

[warcore]

16 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

This is an interesting take that I've heard/seen a couple times.  One thing you are highlighting is the positional dilemma with Sarr.  The other thing you are saying is that drafting Sarr requires you to keep both CC and OO.  That kinda sucks, right?  Where do you see Sarr long term?  

Not necessarily saying it requires us to keep Cap, but I'm definitely saying that if Sarr is the pick, I would want us moving Dre and letting Bey walk to allow Sarr to take major minutes at the forward positions sharing time with JJ for the majority. I feel like that would allow him to expand his skillset most impactfully his rookie year. He shouldn't be worried about logging C minutes until his frame fills out. And when that finally occurs, it would be great if he already has the agility, POA defense, movements, shooting, etc all down from playing forward his first year or so. 

I'd like to move on from CC just to get an asset versus losing him for nothing. But I'm not opposed to him staying on one more year as a mentor and us clearing him off the books next summer. I would like to keep OO. 

Remember, we can move CC and get another big that fits our roster better than him. Or we can obtain another pick in this draft to study under him one more year before taking the reigns. I'm not a fan of the big slow footed dudes some people are excited about, but I wouldn't be made at grabbing Edey with a mid round pick. I also like Kel'el Ware as a late first if we obtain one. 

Long term I see Sarr has the potential to be a unicorn -- can play 3 to 5 on both sides of the ball and do it all (if he reaches his ceiling). 

Even if he doesn't, I'm happy with at least having a forward with length and athletic ability to shore up our defense. 

[KB21]

2 hours ago, Hawkmoor said:

The Slot 5 is another reason you draft Sarr and not Clingan.  Slot 5 is just switching your 4 and 5 in positions in your 5 out offense.  Its small but it IS big.  I give props to Quin or whoever came up with that on his coaching staff.  The problem goes back to my main bane with the Hawks.  Slot 5 gives Jalen Johnson more control of the offense.  How often do the Hawks run slot 5 when Trae want to run pick and roll? 

My position on the slot 5 goes back to my whole premise about Quin.  Quin has me thinking he isn't forward thinking because my eyes tell me that Trae is still the focus of the offense.  The slot 5 opened up Jalen Johnson but how much of Jalen are we gonna be allowed to see?  Sarr being soo versatile can also really shine in that Slot 5 also because you don't HAVE to 45 cut him to the rim because he can just stand in the slot and shoot from there.  You are not doing that with Clingan or Edey.  They are 45 cut ONLY and I question them even effectively being able to do that at the NBA level.  I almost forgot why I'm even responding to you. Oh yes, Quin.  I will give you THAT. The slot 5 IS forward thinking.  Now get the best players to fit that scheme.

You are still missing the mark.  The fit with Trae isn’t the only reason they like Clingan.  In fact, he’s a slower roller than what Trae is used to.  
 

It’s much more multifactorial.   
 

UConn runs a very complex motion oriented heavy ball screen action offense for the college game.  The closest NBA analog to the UConn offense as far as complexity goes is Quin’s system.  
 

This is long, but it’s a great breakdown of what UConn does on offense:  https://halfcourthoops.substack.com/p/uconns-ridiculous-playbook

So, while there is a fits with Trae component, Quin loves him for his basketball intelligence and his ability to master his role in a similar scheme.  Quin is excited about his ball screen ability and his DHO connective passing ability as he is his ability I be a roll man with Trae.  
 

https://halfcourthoops.substack.com/p/quin-snyder-and-the-atlanta-hawks

This is a breakdown of Quin’s offense.  Heavy ball screens.  Lots of plays and complex sets.  
 

https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/can-quin-snyder-save-the-hawks
 

 

[Hawkmoor]

1 hour ago, warcore said:

Not necessarily saying it requires us to keep Cap, but I'm definitely saying that if Sarr is the pick, I would want us moving Dre and letting Bey walk to allow Sarr to take major minutes at the forward positions sharing time with JJ for the majority. I feel like that would allow him to expand his skillset most impactfully his rookie year. He shouldn't be worried about logging C minutes until his frame fills out. And when that finally occurs, it would be great if he already has the agility, POA defense, movements, shooting, etc all down from playing forward his first year or so. 

I get everything you said BUT I have a question.  Why can't Sarr play the 5 right now?  How many NBA teams base their offense around a 5 that plays in the post?  Again, Boston just proved that you dont have to play big inside to win a championship in today's offense.  Horford, Porzingas was beating you from the perimeter.  I would prefer to keep Hunter and run Sarr at the 5.  I looked more into that 5 slot offense that @KB21 pointed out and really dug into it. 

Since Sarr has a jump shot (obviously better than Clingan, OO, Capela or Edey) he can play in that 5 slot and has the option to either "45 cut " OR keep his position and receive the pass for a open jumper.  The floor spacing is amazing.  I was harping on Quin not being innovative (a result of him continuing to running a lot of pick and rolls for Trae) that I dismissed the merits of the 5 slot and shouldn't have done that.  I want to see more of THAT with the RIGHT players.  Sarr playing in space as a 5 would be nightmares for defenses in that slot 5 offense of the Hawks.

[Hawkmoor]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

You are still missing the mark.  The fit with Trae isn’t the only reason they like Clingan.  In fact, he’s a slower roller than what Trae is used to.  
 

It’s much more multifactorial.   
 

UConn runs a very complex motion oriented heavy ball screen action offense for the college game.  The closest NBA analog to the UConn offense as far as complexity goes is Quin’s system.  
 

This is long, but it’s a great breakdown of what UConn does on offense:  https://halfcourthoops.substack.com/p/uconns-ridiculous-playbook

So, while there is a fits with Trae component, Quin loves him for his basketball intelligence and his ability to master his role in a similar scheme.  Quin is excited about his ball screen ability and his DHO connective passing ability as he is his ability I be a roll man with Trae.  
 

https://halfcourthoops.substack.com/p/quin-snyder-and-the-atlanta-hawks

This is a breakdown of Quin’s offense.  Heavy ball screens.  Lots of plays and complex sets.  
 

https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/can-quin-snyder-save-the-hawks
 

 

I'm not missing the mark. I got steered into a "FIT" conversation vs the best player available conversation which has been my premise since the Hawks got the 1st pick of the draft.  You pointed out the 5 slot offense.  I dug into it and you are correct, its VERY forward thinking. I was wrong about that.  If Clingan is the better "fit" right now for that offense from a familiarity point of view, thats one thing.  I like Sarr's overall upside more because he is a better player than Clingan.  Sometimes you can overthink things and I've said over and over that I believe thats what the Hawks are doing.  Defenses catch up. They do EVERYTIME. Once they learn how to protect the rim with the proper rotations when defending the slot 5, you neutralize the 5.  Thats where the jump shot ability of Sarr comes in.  I will look at that U Conn offense because I love X's and Os.

[bird_dirt]

8 hours ago, thecampster said:

If he's the best player out of this class in 3 years, I'll happily tell you I'm wrong.

He doesn’t have to be the best player of this class, just better than Edey, Clingan, or Risacher, aka the primary guys for consideration by either the Hawks or a few Squawkers here. 

If that happens, that’s when I think we should have a reckoning. 

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

He doesn’t have to be the best player of this class, just better than Edey, Clingan, or Risacher, aka the primary guys for consideration by either the Hawks or a few Squawkers here. 

If that happens, that’s when I think we should have a reckoning. 

Edey is not being considered by the Hawks.  

[bird_dirt]

7 hours ago, thecampster said:

With Sarr, I think of the cautionary tale of Andre Drummond. His draft year, he tested off the charts athletically. He was 255 and could run like a deer. 5 years later he definitely +300 though listed 280. Couldn't leap anymore and never developed a good outside game. He's a good piece today, great rebounder but reached for the extra chicken leg too much to reach his potential.  For Sarr, that weight is mandatory if he's going to play the 5 and the outside shot mandatory to play the 4.  There's some real unknowns there.

Well, I guess you could say if your cautionary tale happens and her turns into Drummond, then we know how he’ll be able to handle the Adam’s and Embiids of the league, right?