Who do you think is the safest pick in this draft?

[JTB]

Just curious who everyone believes is the safest pick in the draft. Not necessarily going to be a star player but safest pick in terms of solid starter, there’s no chance this individual fails at the nba level as long as he’s healthy. What you have seen in college and nba combine will be the same if not better in the nba no matter where he lands.

I actually have 2 in no particular order…Reed & Clingan…no matter where those two land they will have a solid nba career guaranteed in my opinion. They are the safest picks in this draft in my opinion.
 

i believe every other player in this draft including Sarr, Edey, Risacher, etc has a higher chance at failing to be a normal rotation player depending on where they end up. These remaining players aren’t weak, they just lean heavily on the “fit” type so it really matters what team they end up on in my opinion, whether or not they hit their full potential.

 

who’s your pick(s) ?

[bleachkit]

I'm with you, Reed and Clingan. What they do well, they do very well.

[terrell]

Dalton Knect

 

Edited May 30 by terrell

[terrell]

11 minutes ago, terrell said:

Dalton Knect

 

Hard to imagine him not averaging 15-20 a game in the league. Can play on and off ball efficiently and should be a top 10 pick despite his age.

[marco102]

Just my opinion, but Sarr's defense makes him a safe pick to me. 

[Sothron]

Reed and Sarr for me. Clingan and Zach not far after that.

[Sothron]

3 hours ago, terrell said:

Hard to imagine him not averaging 15-20 a game in the league. Can play on and off ball efficiently and should be a top 10 pick despite his age.

I just worry about him defensively...and he's already 23. I'm not a fan of old rookies tbh. He can definitely get you a bucket.

[Spud2nique]

8 hours ago, bleachkit said:

I'm with you, Reed and Clingan. What they do well, they do very well.

Shocker!

[AHF]

I feel like Risacher might be the safest pick.  He is a wing with nice length which is generally the most in demand position in the game and looks to be a pretty good shooter and to have pretty good defensive tools.  I feel like a useful 3&D player is pretty close to his floor.  He just seems like the kind of player that can fit and contribute on every team in the league in every system in the league.

[bleachkit]

14 minutes ago, AHF said:

I feel like Risacher might be the safest pick.  He is a wing with nice length which is generally the most in demand position in the game and looks to be a pretty good shooter and to have pretty good defensive tools.  I feel like a useful 3&D player is pretty close to his floor.  He just seems like the kind of player that can fit and contribute on every team in the league in every system in the league.

I wouldn't mind if we took Risacher. The consensus seems to be Sarr and Risacher will go 1 and 2 in some order. The best player in the draft will probably be someone no one predicted though. 

[bleachkit]

I also like Stephon Castle. If he could shoot better he might be going #1.

[KB21]

7 hours ago, marco102 said:

Just my opinion, but Sarr's defense makes him a safe pick to me. 

Agree.  Sarr's floor is very high, and he has the upside that could be star level.  He's the safest pick in the draft.

[macdaddy]

52 minutes ago, AHF said:

I feel like Risacher might be the safest pick.  He is a wing with nice length which is generally the most in demand position in the game and looks to be a pretty good shooter and to have pretty good defensive tools.  I feel like a useful 3&D player is pretty close to his floor.  He just seems like the kind of player that can fit and contribute on every team in the league in every system in the league.

Already being a really good shooter, 19 years old, playing in a pro league,  plus being 6'10".  That's the kind of wing I don't really want to pass up on.  I have limited exposure to either Sarr or Risacher but from what i've seen Risacher has the tools and the size to be a great NBA player. 

[AHF]

42 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I wouldn't mind if we took Risacher. The consensus seems to be Sarr and Risacher will go 1 and 2 in some order. The best player in the draft will probably be someone no one predicted though. 

 

5 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Already being a really good shooter, 19 years old, playing in a pro league,  plus being 6'10".  That's the kind of wing I don't really want to pass up on.  I have limited exposure to either Sarr or Risacher but from what i've seen Risacher has the tools and the size to be a great NBA player. 

I will root for him if we draft him but if you are asking me where his ceiling is compared to others I might have him ranked 5th or so.  I'm not sure he has the shot creation upside to get where you'd want and the scouting reports I've read don't make me think he has "stopper" type defensive upside.  I could see a median outcome from him being a wing who can take the ball to the rim and hit jumpers when he is fed while being a solid defender.  I think 2023-24 Trey Murphy is probably a 70th percentile outcome for him which is a very good player but not necessarily a star.

I am still more excited about the idea of adding Sarr.

[Final_quest]

Risacher really could be the guy.  It's easy to see the fit with Trae and Jalen. 

Sarr's fit is good, but there's more questions on where he lands.  He could be a pure 4, and then we have fit issues with Jalen.  

[AtLaS]

17 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Agree.  Sarr's floor is very high, and he has the upside that could be star level.  He's the safest pick in the draft.

100%.  I think because Sarr's potential is so astronomically high people somehow believe his floor is low.  The dude is 7'1", 224 with a 37" vertical, already taking/making threes in games as an 18 year old against pros, and has a pretty good handle for his size.  If he stays healthy there's just no way he won't be at least a solid player.  But his potential is best player in the league.

[KB21]

15 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Already being a really good shooter, 19 years old, playing in a pro league,  plus being 6'10".  That's the kind of wing I don't really want to pass up on.  I have limited exposure to either Sarr or Risacher but from what i've seen Risacher has the tools and the size to be a great NBA player. 

So, one of the big characteristics that is being sold on Risacher is that he's a 6'10" supersized wing.  What if he's actually a 6'7" or 6'8" average sized wing?  Does losing 2 to 3 inches in expected height have an effect on your view of him as a prospect?

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Risacher really could be the guy.  It's easy to see the fit with Trae and Jalen. 

Sarr's fit is good, but there's more questions on where he lands.  He could be a pure 4, and then we have fit issues with Jalen.  

Risacher is an easy fit on almost any team.  Hard to imagine any team that can't use more good wings.  I do think if Sarr works out that he will fit with a variety of players and don't discount the idea of actually playing with size where JJ plays significant minutes at the 3.  I think Sarr will end up being able to play minutes at both the 4 and the 5 given his size and agility.  Should give us the ability to flex the lineup defensively in really interesting ways.

[KB21]

1 minute ago, AtLaS said:

100%.  I think because Sarr's potential is so astronomically high people somehow believe his floor is low.  The dude is 7'1", 224 with a 37" vertical, already taking/making threes in games as an 18 year old against pros, and has a pretty good handle for his size.  If he stays healthy there's just no way he won't be at least a solid player.  But his potential is best player in the league.

The things that "weaknesses" right now are all things that can be worked upon and improved:

• Adding strength to better handle and finish through contact
• Improving hip flexibility to better utilize his overall athleticism
• Consistency with footwork on spot up jump shots
• Improving overall processing and court mapping

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

100%.  I think because Sarr's potential is so astronomically high people somehow believe his floor is low.  The dude is 7'1", 224 with a 37" vertical, already taking/making threes in games as an 18 year old against pros, and has a pretty good handle for his size.  If he stays healthy there's just no way he won't be at least a solid player.  But his potential is best player in the league.

Potential = ceiling.  (I don't agree with best player in the league in any reasonable projection but agree with high ceiling.)

Floor is about what happens if he doesn't develop.  He came off the bench playing bench minutes in a non-top pro league.  He shot the ball poorly on 3's true but also near the basket. What if he doesn't add strength, doesn't develop an effective jumper, etc.  I do think there is a floor that is pretty ugly.  But I consider that a low % outcome and think his 25% outcome is more like what you would envision as his floor - a solid player who delivers some value with his defense and his offensive versatility. 

For pure floor, we have seen some skilled and athletic big men who never turn the corner, though, and since Sarr has a long way to go from where he was last season to being an impact NBA player I will acknowledge a floor that would be ugly.  I just don't think that will be the reality.  The things he needs are things that are reasonable projectable development for him and physical maturity should enhance his game a lot as well.