A history lesson, Kwame Brown

[kg01]

27 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

Hawks fans, I know we love Sarr, but don’t act like Clingan shouldn’t be in consideration for that pick too.

 

 

I think he'll be a useful player.  But, as I said before, the top pick is where you take homerun swings.  This is not a homerun prospect.  It's more like a guy you can sign just about every other year in free agency. 

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Aha, challenge accepted!

No one in this draft was ever meant to push us toward contention.  The Murray trade was always going to be the vehicle by which we improve as a team.  The draft pick is simply gravy.

Therefore ... to wit ... and such as ... no matter who we draft, the plan was always going to be waiting 2-3 seasons for development.

And the defense rests, your honor! 

You do realize we only won 36 games last year right?

[kg01]

Just now, thecampster said:

You do realize we only won 36 games last year right?

I do.  I also don't think we were demonstrably worse than probably 6 of the 8 playoff seeds in the East.  And that was as a fundamentally flawed and injured roster.

Meaning, with a few fixes, we could fairly easily be 'in the mix'. 

[thecampster]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

I think he'll be a useful player.  But, as I said before, the top pick is where you take homerun swings.  This is not a homerun prospect.  It's more like a guy you can sign just about every other year in free agency. 

I still contend picking at 1 is a mistake and trading down is the best option.

If you're considering Sarr, you fire sale and choose the reset option, rebuild option and start tanking...oh wait, no draft picks....bah!

If you're considering Clingan, you trade down and take Edey. 

If you still take Clingan, you trade down to get more value out of 1.

[kg01]

5 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm not putting anyone on blast with this thread.  That's just not me. But I stand by the concepts outlined. I was aware when I posted it people would push back.  Kwame was near consensus without much proven.  Sarr wasn't even a starter in his limited pro experience. They are similar size with Kwame having a better scouting report coming out.

A recent video podcast linked on here by a pro-Sarr poster admitted that Sarr might spend most of the first year at College Park. The podcast admitted his offense is a question mark, as is his weight and post defense.  When I'm picking #1, I don't like question marks. I want as few as possible. I'll let history and not other posters determine if I'm right or wrong.

I understand some of you are in love with the guy based on highlight videos and potential/word of mouth advertising. I am not and that's okay. That some specific people are coming at me about this post actually strengthens my resolve (some posters have a history of being very wrong, very often and a poor memory of it).

I haven't come out with "what I would do" if it were my off-season but here goes.

1) I do not trade Hunter unless there is a great package.
2) I do not trade Young or Murray unless I'm getting a great package. I'm not sold on them together as a back court, but I'm tired of taking it in the shorts on trades and contracts.

1a+2a) I realize 1 of the 3 is probably gone. If its a part of the deal that brings back Bridges, I'm down. As long as we get good value.

3) I package and ship off Capela any way I know how while he still has value. He's a season or two removed from not being able to keep up. Injuries/the game have taken a toll on his body. Move him to a team in win now mode who doesn't mind someone who cannot space the floor.  A center who can't space the floor has to be good around the basket. Clint is not good offensively anywhere anymore and is clogging the paint most nights with minimal return. His offensive rebound numbers are high because he's always around the rim. Some of those are just falling into his laps when our driving guards miss. Love his effort some nights, hate the package he brings.

4) One interesting scenario I'm 1000% on board with is trading #1 + Capela for 4+8 (+ matching salary of 2 players) and taking Edey+Knecht.  Edey + Knecht at 4 and 8 is a much better salary proposition than Sarr + 1 bench salary, provides 2 players than can contribute right now and specifically, an offensive threat down low. We have become way, way, way too guard dependent. Despite missing a combined 32 games, Trae and DeJounte scored 32.8% of our total points. That is just way too predictable and easy to defend.

5) Using the mid level to sign a vet 3+D wing
6) don't bring back Bey, Forest or W.Matthews.
7) do bring back Lundy (develop), Vit (rotation) while continuing to develop Gueye.

The above sheds a few million in salary while giving us a bigger, more versatile offensive roster.  Again, I realize most won't see it, but I'm not here to be popular.

I actually don't hate your thinking or your plan.  On Sarr, I view it in the lens I mentioned in my previous post.  I'm not looking for a savior, so I don't care if "all" he is year-1 is a piece.

Only part I disagree with is trading down for 4+8.

[kg01]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I still contend picking at 1 is a mistake and trading down is the best option.

If you're considering Sarr, you fire sale and choose the reset option, rebuild option and start tanking...oh wait, no draft picks....bah!

If you're considering Clingan, you trade down and take Edey. 

If you still take Clingan, you trade down to get more value out of 1.

I don't love the options at 1 either, but I'm sold on the alternatives even less.

[kg01]

How it started ....

9 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm not putting anyone on blast with this thread....

How it's going ...

9 minutes ago, thecampster said:

.... That some specific people are coming at me about this post actually strengthens my resolve (some posters have a history of being very wrong, very often and a poor memory of it).

Name names, tc.

Not me, of course, since I'm never wrong.  I totally knew Antman was always gonna be great. 

[theheroatl]

Nothing is more resourceful and accurate than random tweeter fans... 

 

The cherry picked bullet points are non-sensical

[Spud2nique]

21 minutes ago, kg01 said:

to wit

[Spud2nique]

19 minutes ago, thecampster said:

That's just not me.

You put me on blast for JJ not 2 months ago homie!  That just ain’t you huh? How am I supposed to read on when you aren’t being honest with us comon bady!

[thecampster]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

I actually don't hate your thinking or your plan.  On Sarr, I view it in the lens I mentioned in my previous post.  I'm not looking for a savior, so I don't care if "all" he is year-1 is a piece.

Only part I disagree with is trading down for 4+8.

You have to see that part of my argument like a CFO.  I posted it earlier so I won't clog this thread with it but the way the rookie salary scale works is considerably more risk in unknown quantities the higher you to pick 1.  This year's top pick is $10.8 million year 1.  That means you have that much less salary for rotation players. Since we are over the cap, this only allows us exceptions to sign players.  Part of that problem has been us giving salary for unproven talent.

Take my favorite recently departed Hawk, Kevin Huerter.  We gave tons of salary to JC and Trae that caused us to let Huerter go. We replaced his salary a year later with Bey. Nothing wrong with Bey's effort. Good guy. Amazing hustle. He didn't shoot as well Huerter and didn't play as smart. Some of those bulldog drives to the basket just stalled the offense.  Bad financial decisions come back to haunt you.

The number 1 picks' total salary cost for 4 years is over $47.6 million. The cost for picks 4 and 8 are right at $58.4 million.  When you consider that's 2 players and they'll be in the rotation to start, that's way better value than a player who won't be a real rotation piece till year 3.  Sarr might be the second coming. I could be totally wrong but his very $10.5 and $11 million salaries the next 2 years without a guarantee he'll be a rotation guy almost guarantees we'll be swimming up stream. The per year difference between 1 and 4/8 the 1st 2 years is about $2.5 million or the cost of a min level vet (Kevin Knox if you will).  But if both Edey and Knect are in the rotation, that's 2 less rotation pieces we need.  Bey's entire salary can be gone and with Edey here backing up OO, Clint can be swapped out for value.  This means when JJ's up for a contract extension, we aren't having hard conversations because those 2 are locked in for 4 years at value. I'm looking very long game here.  You can't be tossing $11 million a year at a player who won't contribute.

[Spud2nique]

15 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I actually don't hate your thinking or your plan.

Nice! That’s makes of us … 

 

My bad..

[ATLHawks3]

33 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Aha, challenge accepted!

No one in this draft was ever meant to push us toward contention.  The Murray trade was always going to be the vehicle by which we improve as a team.  The draft pick is simply gravy.

Therefore ... to wit ... and such as ... no matter who we draft, the plan was always going to be waiting 2-3 seasons for development.

And the defense rests, your honor! 

lol, still not convinced.

I think Trae is asking for a trade if we have that approach for this pick.

I think Clingan is the best blend of win-now and potential in this draft right now.

[deester11]

8 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

lol, still not convinced.

I think Trae is asking for a trade if we have that approach for this pick.

I think Clingan is the best blend of win-now and potential in this draft right now.

What is it with you wanting that dude at one no less?

[ATLHawks3]

9 minutes ago, deester11 said:

What is it with you wanting that dude at one no less?

I think his defense and passing ability makes him the most impactful player in this draft right out the gate. It’s Clingan, Sarr, Risacher for me at 1.

Edited June 3 by ATLHawks3

[Spud2nique]

5 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

I think his defense and passing ability makes him the most impactful player in this draft right out the gate. It’s Clingan, Sarr, Risacher for me at 1.

Meyers Leonard is what Clingan should strive to be most likely. 

[deester11]

4 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

I think his defense and passing ability makes him the most impactful player in this draft right out the gate. It’s Clingan, Sarr, Risacher for me at 1.

I can respect that. Seriously. Don't like it...but I can see Clingan. At 4 or beyond....I'm just ready to get it over with. Whatever dumbazz decision we make that I'll eventually get behind anyway.

[macdaddy]

I have seen very little of any of these guys so i'm going to make some super uneducated comments:

1. Clingan would be a mistake at 1.  How good of a defender will he be when he can't just stand under the basket all the time.   The guys he blocks from behind in those clips are all smaller and slower than anyone in the nba.

2. Sarr will not spend the season in CP if we take him.  This ain't Nate's hawks.  He'll learn the system and be contributing by mid season because he has the physical tools to do it. 

3. I like Risacher but some have questioned his handle and his actual height.  So i really don't know but i like wings that can shoot and have great size at #1.  But if it's debatable whether he has actual all star potential or will be a liability on D then i think you have to take Sarr. 

[kg01]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

You have to see that part of my argument like a CFO.  I posted it earlier so I won't clog this thread with it but the way the rookie salary scale works is considerably more risk in unknown quantities the higher you to pick 1.  This year's top pick is $10.8 million year 1.  That means you have that much less salary for rotation players. Since we are over the cap, this only allows us exceptions to sign players.  Part of that problem has been us giving salary for unproven talent.

Take my favorite recently departed Hawk, Kevin Huerter.  We gave tons of salary to JC and Trae that caused us to let Huerter go. We replaced his salary a year later with Bey. Nothing wrong with Bey's effort. Good guy. Amazing hustle. He didn't shoot as well Huerter and didn't play as smart. Some of those bulldog drives to the basket just stalled the offense.  Bad financial decisions come back to haunt you.

The number 1 picks' total salary cost for 4 years is over $47.6 million. The cost for picks 4 and 8 are right at $58.4 million.  When you consider that's 2 players and they'll be in the rotation to start, that's way better value than a player who won't be a real rotation piece till year 3.  Sarr might be the second coming. I could be totally wrong but his very $10.5 and $11 million salaries the next 2 years without a guarantee he'll be a rotation guy almost guarantees we'll be swimming up stream. The per year difference between 1 and 4/8 the 1st 2 years is about $2.5 million or the cost of a min level vet (Kevin Knox if you will).  But if both Edey and Knect are in the rotation, that's 2 less rotation pieces we need.  Bey's entire salary can be gone and with Edey here backing up OO, Clint can be swapped out for value.  This means when JJ's up for a contract extension, we aren't having hard conversations because those 2 are locked in for 4 years at value. I'm looking very long game here.  You can't be tossing $11 million a year at a player who won't contribute.

I dont doubt any of your facts and figures.  But I'll say, if Toni Baloney (yes I know that's not how to spell it) and the gang are viewing the pick that way, then all is already lost, Obi Wan.

And none of it has anything to do with who we pick.

50 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

lol, still not convinced.

I think Trae is asking for a trade if we have that approach for this pick.

I think Clingan is the best blend of win-now and potential in this draft right now.

I think we've done enough to warrant anyone rightfully asking for a trade, tbh, but that's a whole other discussion. 

I dont think we disagree much, honestly.  Just think, if they take that guy at 1, we'll be looking back on this pick like we do most every other Hawks lotto pick minus 1. 

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

You put me on blast for JJ not 2 months ago homie!  That just ain’t you huh? How am I supposed to read on when you aren’t being honest with us comon bady!

You spent a considerable part of the past season then offseason ragging on me for saying Jalen was the future and a better fit than Collins. You had it coming.....and I said not putting anyone on blast "in this thread".  []