Trae/Murray/Roster

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, supermariowest said:

It’s not like that at all. I have not suggested either of the two options you mentioned. My point is the “Trae plus 1 or 2 other star players” path is hard to envision due to cap restraints, our limited trade assets, and the small pool of “star” players that are both available and affordable for a team up against the cap and with meager assets. Who are the two star players and how do you acquire them given those constraints? To reiterate, none of this comes from a place of hate (or stupidity). It’s a sincere question.

Thanks to @macdaddy for addressing the actual question — including the nuance.

Thanks to @KB21 for the beginning of what I am sure will be a well-researched reply. 

Ingram would at least be a poor man's star for a year but i don't know that he's a long term solution.   But i think the answer is probably Jalen developing into an offensive force. 

DJ will be addition by subtraction even if Bogi ends up being the starter but ideally we get a good 3&D 2 guard but i'm not sure who that is.  

Looking at the Celtics though Horford is making $9million this year (i think).  That is unbelievable value.  We need to find a versatile big who can shoot.  

 

[AHF]

41 minutes ago, supermariowest said:

You quoted mac who quoted me, which is why I quoted you. Agreed that Herb Jones would be a great addition but he’s definitely not the “star” player you mentioned. And acquiring him uses up virtually all of our trade assets (other than #1 pick). I’ll also add his contract is amazing (from a team-building perspective).

There is perhaps a small subset of posters who never liked Trae and want him gone. But I think you are misrepresenting arguments presented in the other thread. It’s not so much that DJM is just as good as Trae. It’s definitely not that Trae should be moved for peanuts. It’s that DJM is a good player on a much friendlier contract and MAYBE moving Trae — if and only if we get equivalent value back — should be an option in light of the constraints we’re facing otherwise.

Maybe we agree to disagree and just leave it at “Go Hawks!”

Moving any player is on the table.  It all depends on the return.  I've said before that I have little confidence in getting a good return on a trade of DJM or Trae.  We've set our ability to negotiate back really badly with the Huerter and Collins trades.  Teams are conditioned to expect to rip us off (in terms of talent exchange).

What I would say about team building is that the hardest thing to find are superstars and it is the VAST majority of NBA champions who win with one.  We've never drafted a player as good as Trae in the entirety of the Hawks time in Atlanta.  Probably the best case is for Al Horford and I'm not sure he has ever been the best player on his team (and if you think he was it wasn't a huge gap between him and JJ).  We traded for Nique who I think will have a similar legacy if teams with Trae never do anything more than they have done to date and I still regret that we let Nique go when we did. 

Unless you can get a great return, I will go down swinging trying to make it work with Trae because if you say "we can't get great players to add to Trae so let's go with DJM and use the difference in their salary to add another $15M in talent" I don't think that gets you anywhere.  I think your best case is that you are like the Mookie / Smittie era of Hawks teams that never threatened in the East but made the playoffs consistently.  Worst case is what we've seen from DJM career to date.  (Incidently, I don't blame him for the fact that the Hawks have been worse with him than before they got him because a lot of that is the terrible fit between him and Trae.  They are a dumpster fire together.)  The only Trae trade that makes sense to me is for a similar talent (i.e,. someoneone who has a good shot at the HOF) and any team with that kind of talent is trading for Trae to add him to their existing star(s) and not to shuffle the stars on their roster.  

If I am Landry Fields I will take calls on Trae for sure but I'm realistically expecting and working to trade DJM.  One must go and I think you are going to get closer to a fair trade with Murray.

[KB21]

Getting Ingram is making a move just to be making a move.  

[cam1218]

I think some folks don't understand what some people are suggesting when there are mentions of the "option" of trading Trae Young. Like pretty much everyone here, I was a Hawks fan before Trae, and ultimately I want what is best for the Hawks. I'll gladly admit that Trae is my favorite player, he's the only player I have a bought a Hawks jersey for since Horford. By all means I would much rather move on from DJM, keep Trae, and build a team that is successful around him. Heck, I wish the pairing of DJM and Trae DID work, because I like both players. Unfortunately, it didn't and that is where we are at. A lot of it is the pairing, but I keep in mind that we also let John Collins and Kevin Huerter go and still haven't really received any value from that other than Jalen Johnson getting more minutes. Even with that, he was hurt a good bit this year.

So rounding back to my first sentence, how do we get better? I honestly don't know, but I believe it definitely starts with listening to offers for both guards and see what return makes the team better. I have no idea what those offers would look like, and we can all assume what they might look like based on rumors of what the return *might* be, but again - these are rumors. We have other issues that need to be addressed, such as front court depth (and health), but until we figure out if our path forward is with Trae + what DJM brings back or DJM + what Trae brings back it is kind of hard to focus on how this team will be built. Personally, I hope it is with Trae + what DJM brings back, but I also hope they are doing their due diligence and exploring all options to improve this team.

 

 

[macdaddy]

My theory is that the team who wins a playoff series has 2 of the best 3 players on the floor.   It's not 100% but i'd bet it's well over 80% true.   

If you trade Trae then you are on the hunt for a guy who can be the best player on the Hawks because DJ is likely to be the third best player in a series or worse.  That's very hard to find. 

With Trae you are on the hunt for the guy who can be the second or even third best player on the court in a playoff series.  There are so many more of those and easier to acquire. 

 

[Birdsfan]

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

Getting Ingram is making a move just to be making a move.  

For a player like DJ though?  Ingram is a damned good player.  He just had a down series.

[KB21]

46 minutes ago, cam1218 said:

I think some folks don't understand what some people are suggesting when there are mentions of the "option" of trading Trae Young. Like pretty much everyone here, I was a Hawks fan before Trae, and ultimately I want what is best for the Hawks. I'll gladly admit that Trae is my favorite player, he's the only player I have a bought a Hawks jersey for since Horford. By all means I would much rather move on from DJM, keep Trae, and build a team that is successful around him. Heck, I wish the pairing of DJM and Trae DID work, because I like both players. Unfortunately, it didn't and that is where we are at. A lot of it is the pairing, but I keep in mind that we also let John Collins and Kevin Huerter go and still haven't really received any value from that other than Jalen Johnson getting more minutes. Even with that, he was hurt a good bit this year.

So rounding back to my first sentence, how do we get better? I honestly don't know, but I believe it definitely starts with listening to offers for both guards and see what return makes the team better. I have no idea what those offers would look like, and we can all assume what they might look like based on rumors of what the return *might* be, but again - these are rumors. We have other issues that need to be addressed, such as front court depth (and health), but until we figure out if our path forward is with Trae + what DJM brings back or DJM + what Trae brings back it is kind of hard to focus on how this team will be built. Personally, I hope it is with Trae + what DJM brings back, but I also hope they are doing their due diligence and exploring all options to improve this team.

 

 

First, we need to come to the realization that there is NO AVENUE to getting better without Trae Young.  You trade Trae, and you are in for a long rebuild/in for a few middling seasons before ownership decides to tank again.  

8 minutes ago, Birdsfan said:

For a player like DJ though?  Ingram is a damned good player.  He just had a down series.

His shot diet doesn't fit, and you will never see him completely abandon his mid-range game for more threes/more shots at the rim.

[Final_quest]

3 hours ago, KB21 said:

The Hawks made a run to the ECF in 2020-21 and these were their leading minutes played players in the playoffs that year:

• Trae Young 
• Bogdan Bogdanovich
• John Collins
• Clint Capela
• Kevin Huerter
• Danillo Gallinari
• Lou Williams

That team also had the best record in the Eastern Conference over the second half of that season.  They only got 4 games from Cam Reddish and 5 from Deandre Hunter in the playoffs.  

Let's start with Kevin Huerter.  He had his limitations, but within that particular scheme, he fit with Trae in the back court.  He offered some secondary ball handling when needed, but he was a willing shooter.  When he drove, he didn't settle for mid-range jumpers.  He broke the paint.  He had very good passing vision, and he was a better defensive player than he was given credit for being.  He was +6.9 over the second half of that season

Then there was Clint Capela.  He was a FORCE that season on defense.  He was arguably one of the 5 best defenders in the NBA, and he was very efficient on offense.  Do you want to know why a coach like Quin still relies on Clint despite his overall decline over the past couple of years.  This is why:

Notice how Clint recognizes and gets the Hawks out of a bad switch situation.  

Clint was a +8.9 over the second half of that season and had a defensive rating of 108 with an offensive rating of 128.  He was an All Star level player that year  

Bogdanovich started around 25 games over the second half of the year.  He shot 46% from three and had a +5.8 rating.

John Collins shot 41% from three and had a 112 defensive rating.  His secondary rim protection was legit that season, and he was able to expand his shooting.  He was +8.7.  

More to come.

One of your best posts in a while.  Back in 2021 I tried to tell anyone who would listen that Cam and Dre had virtually nothing to do with our success.  Our big miss following the ECF was not trading a couple of our young player for a better and more established star.  I got so much flack for that suggestion.  

 

 

3 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I just think this is a peculiar Atlanta myth.   Look at the top teams in the league.   If they aren't enjoying rookie contracts for their top players like OKC then they usually have 3 or more guys making $30million plus a year.  We have one. We can do it but we have to spend and find value.  

To be more specific i'd say DJ/Capela/Hunter are too expensive combined for what they are giving us.  That $70 million would be better spent on 2 high level players.  

Then we have to find value players like we see in the playoffs every year.  Guys like Gafford, Hart, Horford, Reed, Anderson.

I know this isn't super specific but it's just not the impossibility that some say it is.   Yeah it's hard but teams do it every year.  

Another great post.  Our problem was spending on the wrong things.  The frontcourt was completely overpaid.  The roster was expensive for what we got.  If you look at ALL of the luxury tax spending teams, they have highly paid stars.  Any team with highly paid role players is a failure.  

Further I would say that Trae has been a constant.  Capela and Bogi being healthy and playing well were the main factors in success or failure over the years.  Especially Capela.  Trae does not need much.  If you support Trae in the right ways, he can take us pretty far.  If you spend on ridiculous contracts and players that don't perform, that's not on Trae.  Plus Murray was just the wrong pairing.  

 

[Wretch]

15 hours ago, supermariowest said:

Also note the question isn’t simply which PG is better. Consider their contracts, their trade values, and the LT/aprons. How do you build a winner from here? I’m hoping somebody can lay out a blueprint for the FO. 

1 hour ago, cam1218 said:

I think some folks don't understand what some people are suggesting when there are mentions of the "option" of trading Trae Young. 

This is the type of thing that annoys me to no end.  It's hard to enter the discussion when the board always splits into these extremely polarized camps.  No matter how hard you try, someone will always try to force you into one camp or the other.  Mention Trae and it's you're a hater or you're a stan...nothing in between.

As it pertains to this discussion, I don't believe there are many (if any) fans who believe DJ and Trae are in the same NBA tier.  The contention is simply that we could move Trae and probably trust DJ with the point.  This is not to say, at least from my point of view, that the team is better off or even the same by directly comparing the two.  It's saying that Murray is a very good starting PG.

Which obviously then begs the question, how do you replace what Trae is?  Which is the million dollar question.  I don't believe that Murray + a bunch of decent players will go very far. The ceiling of that team is every 2nd round Hawks team we've watched for the past 20 something years.  I would sooner nuke the whole thing and go back to the lottery than endure that...and before anyone starts with the polarizing narratives, I'M NOT INTERESTED IN BLOWING IT UP AND TANKING.  Just emphasizing that I would prefer to trade one PG and keep trying to build a contender.

The only other thing I would add is that I'm not all in on riding it out with Trae.  I wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket and it has nothing to do with his individual performance.  For one, I just don't trust our ownership and FO to get it right.  Secondly, Trae is pretty vocal about not wanting to waste time.  He wants to win right now and has been explicit in expressing it.  In light of that, for me whether or not we should be listening on Trae primarily depends on how well we execute on building a playoff team - and obviously what return would be coming back. And I'm looking at a window from now through next summer.

[Afro]

Too much to post and respond individually. 

My overarching point is this:

People keep saying "how do we get better with Trae" "I don't see a path forward" "Were stuck" "We have no money" . 

This is all about 2 things and it's the only 2 things that matter. Not Trae. Not DJM. Not whatever the hell. 

Those two things are:

1. This FO actually doing their job to make the team better. The Hawks have assets(most are in player form). I don't accept this position that we can't make large improvements to the roster without trading Trae. We certainly can. Again. That's exactly what Landrys job is. Shit or get off the pot. 

2. Ressler and the finances. I'm not going to sit here and constantly think about the financials behind the team and the tax floors(outside of the real bad one). Ressler has to spend more. If he doesn't, absolutely not of this matters. You are not winning with an owner that won't spend. 

 

If we don't have a FO that can do their job or an owner who doesn't care about winning, yall can discuss trading Trae or DJM till your blue in the face, it won't matter. 

If the FO can do their job and/or Ressler spends, there is absolutely no reason to trade the only superstar you've had since Nique. 

Edited June 11 by Afro

[Afro]

Also, as AHF keeps mentioning, unless you're getting a superstar back(which ain't happening) there is no Trae trade that makes this team better. 

The NBA has proven time and time again that there is no combination of role players that equals the championship value of a superstar. 

You can trade Trae for an Allstars team worth of "almost stars" and it will get you no closer to a title. History(especially ours) has proven this time and time again. 

Edited June 11 by Afro

[AHF]

46 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Any team with highly paid role players is a failure.  

While I'd say you can have 1 or maybe 2 role players that are what I would consider highly paid
(I'm thinking of Iggy and Bogut as the #2 and #3 salaries on GS's first championship team), you sure as **** can't build a roster out of overpaid guys who might start on a good team.  We've had way too many of those over the last few years.  This is precisely what RFA is intended to prevent and we did not leverage RFA to keep our contracts in check.  Good post.

[Jdawgflow]

6 hours ago, Afro said:

Egg-zactly.

I hate to keep beating this same drum.....but Trae has won before? DJM hasn't done anything really in 7 seasons? What are we doing here lol. Some people just need to say they hate him for his haircut so we can move on. 

Plus, Trae won with a roster that really isnt all that difficult to replace. It's not like he made the ECF with a bunch of superstars we can't afford anymore. Just a bunch of quality role players who could play team defense and hit shots. That's not that hard to build lol. 

Also, that run wasn't a fluke. Hawks beat a decent and healthy Knicks team. Beat the Sixers with a functioning Embiid(as much as he ever is in the offs) and a Ben Simmons who was still elite. Went toe to toe with the Bucks. That wasn't a mickey mouse run. Trae really did that shit. 

Im gonna keep saying this until people acknowledge it and stop with this "how do you compete with Trae"? BS. Tyler Jones says it best. The problem never was Trae. The problem is the Hawks had no idea why that team was good.....and its been years and they STILL dont know why that roster was good. 

 

Asking a front office that cant put a minimumly competitive roster around a superstar.....to build a roster without said superstar.....is stupid as hell lol. 

Our front office has said “hold my beer” on the bolded.  
 

To this overall post:

5 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Everything going to be different this year.  

There are about to be Rogain and hair dye shortages in our future it seems.  

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, Jdawgflow said:

Our front office has said “hold my beer” on the bolded.  
 

To this overall post:

There are about to be Rogain and hair dye shortages in our future it seems.  

He got tips from Quin.

[supermariowest]

46 minutes ago, Wretch said:

This is the type of thing that annoys me to no end.  It's hard to enter the discussion when the board always splits into these extremely polarized camps.  No matter how hard you try, someone will always try to force you into one camp or the other.  Mention Trae and it's you're a hater or you're a stan...nothing in between.

Agreed and I think you made a similar point in the other thread. Nuance is ignored in favor of polarization.

The rest of this comment isn’t really a reply to you, just answering my own question.

I don’t think NO would do a DJM:Jones swap (one for one). I imagine more players would have to be involved and more salaries too. Call the framework something like DJM/OO for Jones/BI/Nance. I don’t love moving OO but the framework seems ~realistic to me. The heart of the deal is DJM/Jones and the other pieces flesh it out.

Targeting Delon Wright as BU PG is a no-brainer regardless of which PG we keep. Should have never let him leave. 

From there, I’d also target Alex Caruso. He’s on an expiring deal which makes acquiring him risky (maybe he walks) but it should bring his price down. Another poster told me we’d get laughed out of the building but maybe some combination of Griffin/Bufkin/Kings first gets it done (given that he’s expiring). Or maybe we get laughed out of the building.

Is Kevin Love washed? If not, he could provide Horford-lite value. He has a player option and my guess is he stays in Miami. But maybe a small raise entices him. 

I’ve seen KCP mentioned as a possible target. He also has a player option but Denver could be looking to shed salary.

Given the above, our roster looks something like:

Trae/Delon

Caruso/Bogi/Lundy

Jones/BI/Vit

JJ/Love/Gueye

CC/Sarr/Nance

Is it a contender? Eh. Is it realistic? It’s close. I have BI off the bench because I think he’s a one-year rental. Hunter is notably absent (cap casualty?). I liked him off the bench last year and wouldn’t mind keeping him in that role.

Note I’m not saying this is a great plan, but I think something like this is feasible given the constraints we’re up against.

[Afro]

7 minutes ago, Jdawgflow said:

Our front office has said “hold my beer” on the bolded.  
 

To this overall post:

There are about to be Rogain and hair dye shortages in our future it seems.  

Our Front office has not gotten nearly enough criticism. I don't mean they haven't gotten criticism, cause they have, but it's not enough lol. 

Its just a basketball thing I guess? Because every other recent Atlanta GM in other sports has gotten wayyyyy more heat even when they've done way more right than the Schlenk/Landry regimes. 

Schlenk gets too much credit for his drafts. Like AHF mentioned, he signed them to far too expensive deals so we got absolutely nothing out of the guys he "hit" on(sans Hunter for the moment). So I don't really see why he deserves credit for that. 

Landry.... Ain't done shit. 

Edited June 11 by Afro

[macdaddy]

7 minutes ago, Afro said:

Schlenk gets too much credit for his drafts. Like AHF mentioned, he signed them to far too expensive deals so we got absolutely nothing out of the guys he "hit" on(sans Hunter for the moment) 

I don't know.  I think he signed guys and then they tied his hands on making changes.  

[deester11]

6 minutes ago, Afro said:

Our Front office has not gotten nearly enough criticism. I don't mean they haven't gotten criticism, cause they have, but it's not enough lol. 

Its just a basketball thing I guess? Because every other recent Atlanta GM in other sports has gotten wayyyyy more heat even when they've done way more right than the Schlenk/Landry regimes. 

Schlenk gets too much credit for his drafts. Like AHF mentioned, he signed them to far too expensive deals so we got absolutely nothing out of the guys he "hit" on(sans Hunter for the moment). So I don't really see why he deserves credit for that. 

Landry.... Ain't done shit. 

Preach it.  Oh..from the roof tops preach that shyt! Ohhhhwheeee

[Afro]

5 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I don't know.  I think he signed guys and then they tied his hands on making changes.  

Yeah, his signings were fine. I'm just talking about his draft picks, which is where I feel he gets almost all of his reputation/praise. 

Trae and Hunter were the only ones to offer any kind of longterm asset.

Its a hard thing to balance. He picked very good players. But almost all of them were gone within 5ish years with absolutely nothing to show for it because of the contracts and that ultimately falls on him. 

Edited June 11 by Afro

[Afro]

Im also still annoyed that it took him 3(? Maybe it was 2) years to get a damn decent backup PG lol.