2024-25 Insider Thread

[AHF]

4 hours ago, Final_quest said:

The team turns the corner when all the bloat is gone and we have a solid core that fits well and is growing together.  It could happen a lot sooner than you think.

You think Hunter can hold the damn.  I think he’s a mirage.  Hunter is the kind of contract that holds us back.  You can’t upgrade from him in a straight up trade.  

But I do think Hunter for Williams and Capela + Nance for Ayton could put us in the top 6 maybe even a four seed.  

I’m up for an avatar bet if you are.  My confidence in the Hawks trading for Ayton and it working out well is very low.  Very low chance it happens.  If it does I’m skeptical he is nearly as impactful as you think he will be.

Most likely scenario is we dump Hunter’s salary, don’t get that hypothetical first round pick, don’t trade for Ayton, and sign ourselves up to 3 years of watching Williams be what he was in Dallas (someone the team was happy to dump).  The only good news is Charlotte isn’t close to good so at least Hunter shouldn’t be on a team that kicks our butt.

 Next season we end up letting Nance and Capela walk and then we don’t sign anyone who moves the needle.  We net something like Nance, Capela and Hunter for Williams and a MLE player.  

[SalvorMallow]

Just now, AHF said:

I’m up for an avatar bet if you are.  My confidence in the Hawks trading for Ayton and it working out well is very low.  Very low chance it happens.  If it does I’m skeptical he is nearly as impactful as you think he will be.

Most likely scenario is we dump Hunter’s salary, don’t get that hypothetical first round pick, don’t trade for Ayton, and sign ourselves up to 3 years of watching Williams be what he was in Dallas (someone the team was happy to dump).  The only good news is Charlotte isn’t close to good so at least Hunter shouldn’t be on a team that kicks our butt.

 Next season we end up letting Nance and Capela walk and then we don’t sign anyone who moves the needle.  We net something like Nance, Capela and Hunter for Williams and a MLE player.  

What are the terms? 

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, SalvorMallow said:

What are the terms? 

If we don’t trade for Ayton this offseason or he doesn’t meet whatever performance criteria we agree on, the salary dump failed to produce the expected transformation of the team and I win the bet.  If we trade for Ayton and he meet whatever criteria we agree on, then Landry delivered what FQ promised he would and proved me wrong and he wins the bet.

[Sothron]

For those that were arguing with me about Nance as a PF...Brad Rowland confirmed Nance has played 85% or so of his minutes the last two seasons as a center. He's not a PF any more. 

[gurpilo]

hace 50 minutos, Sothron dijo:

For those that were arguing with me about Nance as a PF...Brad Rowland confirmed Nance has played 85% or so of his minutes the last two seasons as a center. He's not a PF any more. 

This season he was the backup of Valanciunas, there was no other option. 

One season ago he was playing PF mainly as Jaxson Hayes and Willy Hernan Gomez were Valanciunas backups and Nance was playing mainly PF as Zion was injured and Herb was their starting PF with Ingram at SF.

[Final_quest]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

If we don’t trade for Ayton this offseason or he doesn’t meet whatever performance criteria we agree on, the salary dump failed to produce the expected transformation of the team and I win the bet.  If we trade for Ayton and he meet whatever criteria we agree on, then Landry delivered what FQ promised he would and proved me wrong and he wins the bet.

Not sure what the criteria is exactly but taking a long range view on a roster means you don’t make win now moves that hurt your team’s future.  Example is trading Huerter for a pick because keeping him means your payroll would explode the following season.  You keep Huerter and have to deal with a Golden State size payroll without much impact on wins.

You’re playing in a world where everything is about keeping players and even adding salary to make our team winners immediately without regard for future payroll or draft capital.  Hunter is another case where you don’t value getting either draft picks or shedding high pay for low performance players.  

[AHF]

37 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Not sure what the criteria is exactly but taking a long range view on a roster means you don’t make win now moves that hurt your team’s future.  Example is trading Huerter for a pick because keeping him means your payroll would explode the following season.  You keep Huerter and have to deal with a Golden State size payroll without much impact on wins.

You’re playing in a world where everything is about keeping players and even adding salary to make our team winners immediately without regard for future payroll or draft capital.  Hunter is another case where you don’t value getting either draft picks or shedding high pay for low performance players.  

I don’t believe for a second we can get a Charlotte first round pick.  Instead I’m looking at whether acquiring a player on the same 3 year contract but $8-10M cheaper per year is worth it when that player contributes less on both sides of the ball.  I’m doing so knowing that wing depth is the most important area for depth on the roster and the most challenging to fill.  Two way wings get paid which is why a role player like KCP just signed for more than what Junter will make this year.

Im not opposed to shedding salary while improving the team.  For example, when we signed DMC and Millsap in. FA those were high impact moves at low prices.  If we could dump Hunter and sign those two it would be a home run move.  It is why Daniels and the LA pick are the big returns for DJM (both offer serious upside with controlled salary and extended team control).

My issue with the idea of a Williams trade is we aren’t opening a roster spot, taking on a smaller contract, getting upside or improving performance.  We are simply downgrading both performance and payrolll.  That is a move I’ve advocated to do with CC but wing depth I view differently than center depth.

We got less back for DJM than I expected (more of the return in future draft picks and salary dumping) and we haven’t signed a FA of any note.  We improved fit so we should be better but is it enough?  What if we now doengrade the wing spot to save $8-10M over the next two years (I saw two here to express my skepticism we make any other meaningful moves as a result of salary dumping Hunter this year so that gives us the next two offseasons) when that won’t make us meaningful players in FA?  Do I trust Landry to pull off an impact trade during that time?

Then there is the big question in my mind.  If saving $8-10M per year for the next 3 years costs us Trae Young will it have been worth it?  

[Dragitoff]

5 hours ago, Sothron said:

For those that were arguing with me about Nance as a PF...Brad Rowland confirmed Nance has played 85% or so of his minutes the last two seasons as a center. He's not a PF any more. 

I think he only works as a PF if he's paired with OO since OO is mobile enough to guard on the perimeter some. 

[REHawksFan]

5 hours ago, Sothron said:

For those that were arguing with me about Nance as a PF...Brad Rowland confirmed Nance has played 85% or so of his minutes the last two seasons as a center. He's not a PF any more. 

 

4 hours ago, gurpilo said:

This season he was the backup of Valanciunas, there was no other option. 

One season ago he was playing PF mainly as Jaxson Hayes and Willy Hernan Gomez were Valanciunas backups and Nance was playing mainly PF as Zion was injured and Herb was their starting PF with Ingram at SF.

Helping out....

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

 

Helping out....

I don’t think how many minutes he played is as important as whether his mobility has been compromised.  He has been versatile enough to play both positions for years.  Did he play almost all center the last two years because he can’t play PF anymore or because that is where he was best utilized?  

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I don’t believe for a second we can get a Charlotte first round pick.  Instead I’m looking at whether acquiring a player on the same 3 year contract but $8-10M cheaper per year is worth it when that player contributes less on both sides of the ball.  I’m doing so knowing that wing depth is the most important area for depth on the roster and the most challenging to fill.  Two way wings get paid which is why a role player like KCP just signed for more than what Junter will make this year.

Im not opposed to shedding salary while improving the team.  For example, when we signed DMC and Millsap in. FA those were high impact moves at low prices.  If we could dump Hunter and sign those two it would be a home run move.  It is why Daniels and the LA pick are the big returns for DJM (both offer serious upside with controlled salary and extended team control).

My issue with the idea of a Williams trade is we aren’t opening a roster spot, taking on a smaller contract, getting upside or improving performance.  We are simply downgrading both performance and payrolll.  That is a move I’ve advocated to do with CC but wing depth I view differently than center depth.

We got less back for DJM than I expected (more of the return in future draft picks and salary dumping) and we haven’t signed a FA of any note.  We improved fit so we should be better but is it enough?  What if we now doengrade the wing spot to save $8-10M over the next two years (I saw two here to express my skepticism we make any other meaningful moves as a result of salary dumping Hunter this year so that gives us the next two offseasons) when that won’t make us meaningful players in FA?  Do I trust Landry to pull off an impact trade during that time?

Then there is the big question in my mind.  If saving $8-10M per year for the next 3 years costs us Trae Young will it have been worth it?  

Charlotte has two other frp's outside of their own, Dallas and Miami. Getting one of those picks is a significant factor if they are offering it as part of the deal.  

Hunter is part of the $67-70M tied up with him, Capela, and Murray.  Starters we want to move on from.  If we successfully trade Hunter, that amount goes down another $8.5M.  That's just part of the aggregate momentum in reshaping the roster.  Those guys are good players, but if you can't make your decisions based on only getting a better player in return without regard to Quin's style of play.

With Collins we had about $100M in starters paired with Trae who turned into a terrible fit at a high cost.  Leaving Capela out of it for now, if we just trade Hunter for Williams and a pick, look at the progress.  That $100M is paired down to paying Williams and Dyson Daniels after this season and we would have gained 3 frp's.  

I would personally like to see us move Capela and Nance for Ayton, but if not we have more options next offseason to make moves than we've had in a long time.  Moving off of high dollar contracts and towards young talent that fits while replenishing draft capital and payroll is short term pain for long term gain.  
***********************************************
To address the Trae Young concern.  Either way we need to move off of Hunter so I see this move for Grant Williams plus a pick as something we would do.  After stripping down and gaining some draft capital, I think they will be in a better position to make a significant move to add to what we have with the new core which would be Trae, Dyson, Risacher, Jalen, and Okongwu with Bufkin and Bogi in support.  
Lots of questions with how they want to build with Trae, but it seems like they are taking a hard stance that they will not make overpay mistakes of the past.  

[AHF]

I'll say this, I will like the deal a lot more with a first than without one but I worry that we keep deteriorating the talent on this team at a time when I feel like we need to have more focus on winning because this team is radically different without Trae on board than with him. I don't think we'll get one but the top 14 protected Miami pick and top 2 protected Dallas picks are much more realistic.  The Miami pick becomes unprotected in 2028 if it fails to convey in 2027 which is very interesting.  The Dallas pick disappears completely if it falls in the top 2 (becoming a second rounder).  I think Dallas is better positioned for the next few years so it might make sense to trade that one to us but I'm still skeptical that Landry can get any of these without additional protections being put on them in a Hunter trade.

I've been burned by the Huerter trade that saw us trade him for an asset that probably won't be a positive impact on the floor until 2026.  We have a two year window to make it work with Trae.  The picks are meaningless for that window unless we flip them in a trade with the Miami pick perhaps contributing on the floor for the first time in 2029 and the Dallas pick in 2028.  We can't keep pushing returns on trades out that far into the future or we will end up with Trae bailing and us back in the lottery on a new rebuild, imo.  We've got to have a balance between immediate impact and future cap implications and I am not seeing big impact from the $8-10M per year in savings that Williams will bring over Hunter (at least the JC dump trade and Huerter dump trades got us under the tax which hasn't had much basketball impact but did have a big financial impact for Ressler).  We are already set to be a non-tax team for the foreseeable future so to make it impactful means adding a big FA or adding a big trade.  You are confident Landry will do exactly that and I hope you are right.

[macdaddy]

14 hours ago, AtLaS said:

This is just a case of bias because you've seen him play for years. The grass isn't always greener on the other side. Williams or Barnes both have tons of issues too and will be much more annoying to watch, it's just that you've seen Hunter play so much and seen all the mistakes that he's made.  The reality he is a big 2-way wing who is nearly a 40% 3pt shooter, who averages 15+ ppg, with a not terrible contract.  That is a heavily desired commodity in the NBA.  It would be HUGE to have him as depth at wing for this year.  We would have one of the deepest wing rotations in the NBA all built around Trae, and built in one offseason. 

We are going to have injuries just like we always do, so all these guys will get ample playing time.  Having a solid backup to step in will make a huge difference in the win/loss column.  As a reference last year when JJ went out and we played Bey/Mathews at PF, we lost like 9 out of 10 games or something like that.  It derailed the entire season up to that point.  

You would think.  But so far it seems like Hunter, despite his numbers, is not heavily desired.  

[Final_quest]

7 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

You would think.  But so far it seems like Hunter, despite his numbers, is not heavily desired.  

The new CBA is largely stars getting max or near max deals, role players getting paid MLE and under, rookie contracts, and vet mins.  Less space to commit to guys like Hunter.
 

 

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

We are already set to be a non-tax team for the foreseeable future so to make it impactful means adding a big FA or adding a big trade.  You are confident Landry will do exactly that and I hope you are right.

Cutting salary is for the team benefit, even after we cut JC and Huerter we still started the following season being well over the tax line.  We're in a different stage that you don't seem to appreciate, which is being projected to have room below the tax line and more draft capital.  I'm saying that is a better position to be in compared to back against the wall with limited roster improvement options. 

Never made a comment about confidence in Landry making a big move.  There's a difference in saying he finally will have more opportunity to make a move.  His position in the market shifts with talent level being higher than payroll, having spending power, and having draft capital.  That is closer to where you want to be as a FO. 

I actually am not convinced Landry is capable of pulling off a big move that adds a star or star level impact player.  It doesn't change my perspective that he should finish the job he started clearing the $100M/year we had committed to Murray, JC, Capela, and Hunter.  

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Final_quest said:

Cutting salary is for the team benefit...

Never made a comment about confidence in Landry making a big move.  There's a difference in saying he finally will have more opportunity to make a move.  

I actually am not convinced Landry is capable of pulling off a big move that adds a star or star level impact player.  It doesn't change my perspective that he should finish the job he started clearing the $100M/year we had committed to Murray, JC, Capela, and Hunter.  

How is cutting salary for the team benefit if it doesn't translate into adding talent that we could not have otherwise added that leaves us a better team than we would have been had we simply held onto Hunter?  (The scenario I am talking about is one without getting a first round pick.)

At some point, having cap space is meaningless unless you are filling it with quality players.  We are already at the point where we are under the tax line for the foreseeable future so now I am focusing on comparing the quality of the roster under different scenarios that all leave us under the tax line.  Being closer to the tax line and a better team for me is better than having $5M in cap space but being a worse team unless you are going to actually pull the trigger on a move that leaves the team better than that "close to the tax line" roster.  Merely being closer to the cap line without being a better team in actuality is just more money for Ressler not a more competitive team for fans.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Cutting salary is for the team benefit, even after we cut JC and Huerter we still started the following season being well over the tax line.

We did not start the season over the tax line in any of those years.

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We did not start the season over the tax line in any of those years.

I think he meant that when the offseason started we had to take additional steps to get under the tax line.  I am pretty sure he knows that the Ressler owned Hawks don't start any season in a tax paying position.

[Afro]

11 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

The new CBA is largely stars getting max or near max deals, role players getting paid MLE and under, rookie contracts, and vet mins.  Less space to commit to guys like Hunter.
 

Im not sure there is a whole lot of evidence for that? Like it's definitely a nice soundbite, but isn't overly realistic. 

Non-Star players that signed for 15+ million this offseason. 

Patrick Williams

KCP

Tobias

Obi Toppin

Hartenstein

OG

Isaac

Monk

Quickley

There's probably a few more but I'm also not including any of the rookies that got max extensions, cause that's TBD. 

This offseason spending is going exactly how it usually does. "Well rounded" wings are mostly getting 15-25 million. The vets with limitations are getting the MLE. 

There are a few on my list that are better than Hunter....but are making more than Hunter. KCP is the only exception to that. 

 

This whole "Hunter is vastly overpaid" argument that I see around here is not supported by anything. Patrick Williams just signed for 90 mill without a single season of above 10ppg. Breaking News: decent starting wings cost money lol. I'm not a Hunter fan, but y'all act like hes an absolute bum that should be making somewhere near what Slo-Mo does? That's not anywhere close to realistic. 

 

[JTB]

I’m not shocked about Nance being listed as a Center.

it just makes things more interesting. It means that to our FO we have 4 centers on the roster in Capela, OO, Bruno, and Nance.

yeah there’s no way they are going to keep all 4 centers if this is how they view Nance.

it begs to question that perhaps the talks with Portland are truly happening to get Ayton here or it could just be my wishful thinking that the plan is to get Ayton and whoever is left is the automatic backup center.

Anyways the fact that Nance is seen as a center now tells me that 2 things stick out that are highly important!

1) FO doesn’t believe we have a capable backup 4 (Nance is a center to the eyes of our FO and apparently the league)

2) FO doesn’t believe we have a capable backup 3 (they’ve made it clear that Hunter is not the right fit with what Synder and his staff envisions)

 

technically that’s two huge holes on the roster at both forward positions. That’s what I’m gathering in my opinion of what’s running through the minds of our FO.

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, JTB said:

I’m not shocked about Nance being listed as a Center.

it just makes things more interesting. It means that to our FO we have 4 centers on the roster in Capela, OO, Bruno, and Nance.

yeah there’s no way they are going to keep all 4 centers if this is how they view Nance.

it begs to question that perhaps the talks with Portland are truly happening to get Ayton here or it could just be my wishful thinking that the plan is to get Ayton and whoever is left is the automatic backup center.

Anyways the fact that Nance is seen as a center now tells me that 2 things stick out that are highly important!

1) FO doesn’t believe we have a capable backup 4 (Nance is a center to the eyes of our FO and apparently the league)

2) FO doesn’t believe we have a capable backup 3 (they’ve made it clear that Hunter is not the right fit with what Synder and his staff envisions)

 

technically that’s two huge holes on the roster at both forward positions. That’s what I’m gathering in my opinion of what’s running through the minds of our FO.

I'm not sold on either conclusion here.  Has Nance's mobility deteriorated to the point where he is no longer effective at PF?  I haven't watched him enough to compare him from two years ago to him last year.  His size and shooting range seem well fitted for backup PF minutes so I'm not convinced he can no longer be effective there.  He is old enough that I would expect it to be a bit more matchup dependent with smaller, perimeter PFs maybe needing to be guarded by more of a wing (which would be a good fit for Hunter's physique and skillset).

I don't know that they've made it clear on Hunter but I do think that will be clear by the end of the offseason.  If he gets salary dumped for an inferior player, they will definitely have sent the message that he doesn't fit with what Snyder wants but I think he can serve a very valuable spot on the roster this season with his ability to play both ways at SF and against smallball PFs.  If he goes, we need a good replacement if we want to compete this season.

Right now, I am assuming that Wallace, Lundy, Liddell, and Zeller are basically empty roster spots as far as their expected contribution and am thinking that Gueye might be in this bucket as well.  If Mo or Liddell can give us quality minutes at PF that would definitely help with depth there but I'm not sold on that happening this year.