2024-25 Insider Thread

[KB21]

On 8/4/2024 at 4:44 PM, georgia said:

Read a blurb from Brett Seidel that Ayton trade market is low and they’ll trade him soon

What would a Hawks trade for him look like?

Realize that there is a reason the Ayton trade market is low.  He's grossly overpaid for what he is.  He doesn't fit the Hawks ethos nor their desired playing style.  Portland may have to consider attaching a 1st round pick or two along with him to move him.  He's simply not a good player.

[kg01]

42 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Realize that there is a reason the Ayton trade market is low.  He's grossly overpaid for what he is.  He doesn't fit the Hawks ethos nor their desired playing style.  Portland may have to consider attaching a 1st round pick or two along with him to move him.  He's simply not a good player.

Yeah, this is something we tend to ignore when we assess players.

He's available for several reasons. 

It's like all the folks that still believe in Christian Wood.  Guy's about to be on his 9th or 10th team.  What do people think is good there that these teams aren't seeing? 

On Ayton, he was a #1 pick and is about to be on his 3rd team in 2 years.  If that doesn't scream 'red flags', what more do people need to see.

I want us to upgrade the 5, but ...

 

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Yeah, this is something we tend to ignore when we assess players.

He's available for several reasons. 

It's like all the folks that still believe in Christian Wood.  Guy's about to be on his 9th or 10th team.  What do people think is good there that these teams aren't seeing? 

On Ayton, he was a #1 pick and is about to be on his 3rd team in 2 years.  If that doesn't scream 'red flags', what more do people need to see.

I want us to upgrade the 5, but ...

 

The fact that they drafted over him with a guy who is likely to be a good starter but not really envisioned to be a franchise player (which is precisely what Ayton was envisioned to be when he was drafted) is another red flag to me.  Normally teams would be fighting over getting a healthy former first round pick but at his price it is really easy to see things going very south with him.  (Given his tools it is also easy to see why people would be interested but I just don't see the passion for basketball or competitiveness that I think is needed to translate those tools.  If you buy on him even buying low, you have to predict that he will mature and become more competitive over time which isn't always the case for guys with suspect motors.)

[Edit:  Your post was an insightful and well-reasoned post.  The Matrix gif was the reason for the laughing response rather than a heart or thanks.  I figured you would appreciate that more.]

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

I'm assuming this is less than a max deal since that term isn't used?  If so, how big is the gap?

[Dragitoff]

21 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm assuming this is less than a max deal since that term isn't used?  If so, how big is the gap?

All I see is JJ keeps getting more expensive.  I don't see him getting max $, but it won't be a value deal most likely. 

[JeffS17]

22 minutes ago, Dragitoff said:

All I see is JJ keeps getting more expensive.  I don't see him getting max $, but it won't be a value deal most likely. 

Unfortunately agree with you

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I'm assuming this is less than a max deal since that term isn't used?  If so, how big is the gap?

Less than a max....he renegotiated his current contract for this season going from.$18 mil to $42 mil. Utah had capspace to do so, then signed an extension.

[AHF]

Thanks, Jay.  So between his renegotiation and the extension, it is actually better than him going to FA and signing a max deal with another  team and by quite a bit (net ~$21M more for him).  I'm mentally filing this away as a max deal that carries a higher cap number this year and slightly lower cap numbers in the future.  

[AtLaS]

6 hours ago, kg01 said:

Yeah, this is something we tend to ignore when we assess players.

He's available for several reasons. 

It's like all the folks that still believe in Christian Wood.  Guy's about to be on his 9th or 10th team.  What do people think is good there that these teams aren't seeing? 

On Ayton, he was a #1 pick and is about to be on his 3rd team in 2 years.  If that doesn't scream 'red flags', what more do people need to see.

I want us to upgrade the 5, but ...

 

He's not a superstar and hasn't turned out to be a terrific #1 overall pick but he is still a good player, and he fits our offense extremely well.  Portland is in full rebuild mode they don't need someone like Ayton.

Ayton was a major contributor to a finals team and played very well in the playoffs.

PHX was a top defense all 3 years with Ayton as the starting C.  #6 in 20-21, #3 in 21-22, and #9 in 22-23. 

If you have good defense around him he won't kill you on that end.  And he is WORLDS better than Capela on offense.  It's not about what he will do personally, it's about how he can spread the floor which improves everyone else's offense.  Just look at our perimeter players' shooting % inside with CC on the floor vs when CC was off the floor.  The guards shot like 10% better, it was that major of a difference.  CC is absolutely suffocating our offense, it really shows how great Trae is that we are still in the top half of the league with him in the lineup.

 

[kg01]

53 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

He's not a superstar and hasn't turned out to be a terrific #1 overall pick but he is still a good player, and he fits our offense extremely well.  Portland is in full rebuild mode they don't need someone like Ayton.

Ayton was a major contributor to a finals team and played very well in the playoffs.

PHX was a top defense all 3 years with Ayton as the starting C.  #6 in 20-21, #3 in 21-22, and #9 in 22-23. 

If you have good defense around him he won't kill you on that end.  And he is WORLDS better than Capela on offense.  It's not about what he will do personally, it's about how he can spread the floor which improves everyone else's offense.  Just look at our perimeter players' shooting % inside with CC on the floor vs when CC was off the floor.  The guards shot like 10% better, it was that major of a difference.  CC is absolutely suffocating our offense, it really shows how great Trae is that we are still in the top half of the league with him in the lineup.

 

Respectfully, you're reaching.

They're not moving on from him because they're rebuilding.  They're moving on from him, assuming they can find a sucker ... er, I mean a 'taker', because they've seen enough of his act and his attitude.

[AtLaS]

34 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Respectfully, you're reaching.

They're not moving on from him because they're rebuilding.  They're moving on from him, assuming they can find a sucker ... er, I mean a 'taker', because they've seen enough of his act and his attitude.

Agreed they are probably tired of him, and don't need him at 33M.  But for our roster he would be a great fit that I believe would unlock our offense to the next level.  

But championships are many times built by buy low trades.  He's a very productive player that we could acquire without having to give up much.  

Show me the guy who can average 20/10 with a great attitude, and has been on a finals team who is only 25 years old and is available in trade for less than a king's ransom.  Doesn't exist.  Sometimes you have to roll the dice on a talented, albeit has had some troubles, player.

My opinion though you are free to disagree. I just feel that strongly that we need a floor spacer at C who is still a solid rebounder.

[JTB]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

Thanks, Jay.  So between his renegotiation and the extension, it is actually better than him going to FA and signing a max deal with another  team and by quite a bit (net ~$21M more for him).  I'm mentally filing this away as a max deal that carries a higher cap number this year and slightly lower cap numbers in the future.  

This sounds like the old poison pill contracts that use to be thing.

[kg01]

48 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

Agreed they are probably tired of him, and don't need him at 33M.  But for our roster he would be a great fit that I believe would unlock our offense to the next level.  

But championships are many times built by buy low trades.  He's a very productive player that we could acquire without having to give up much.  

Show me the guy who can average 20/10 with a great attitude, and has been on a finals team who is only 25 years old and is available in trade for less than a king's ransom.  Doesn't exist.  Sometimes you have to roll the dice on a talented, albeit has had some troubles, player.

My opinion though you are free to disagree. I just feel that strongly that we need a floor spacer at C who is still a solid rebounder.

Not disparaging, just disagreeing.  Good thing about this place is we can disagree without devaluing each other.

Ooh, that was profound.  Let's marinate on that for a second....

Anyway, I definitely want to move on from Capela but I just can't stomach Ayton's red flags.  I see what you see game-wise.  Just feel like it would be another Dejounte-like move.  Looks good mainly in theory.

[AHF]

I don’t think I’ve ever heard Ayton described as a guy with a great attitude.  Pretty sure he would still be in Phoenix if that was the case.  And what team that is looking to rebuild is looking to ditch a 25 year old 20/10 center with amazing physical tools and a great attitude?  
 

My take is it is precisely because of his approach to the game that Portland is moving on.  They saw enough to say they are out on him.  Price is tough but they knew his price when they traded for him.  It is what they’ve seen for his makeup since he has been there that has them saying, “yeah, no thanks.”

If we trade for him, I’ll hope to heck I’m wrong but he seems like a living embodiment of a massive red flag.

[JeffS17]

13 hours ago, AHF said:

I don’t think I’ve ever heard Ayton described as a guy with a great attitude.  Pretty sure he would still be in Phoenix if that was the case.  And what team that is looking to rebuild is looking to ditch a 25 year old 20/10 center with amazing physical tools and a great attitude?  
 

My take is it is precisely because of his approach to the game that Portland is moving on.  They saw enough to say they are out on him.  Price is tough but they knew his price when they traded for him.  It is what they’ve seen for his makeup since he has been there that has them saying, “yeah, no thanks.”

If we trade for him, I’ll hope to heck I’m wrong but he seems like a living embodiment of a massive red flag.

Yep, the red flags are there but not even relevant imo.  Red flags are used to throw caution when you are figuring out who guys really are.  We know who Ayton is-- there is a mountain of empirical evidence to show he's a poor attitude, selective effort, player that doesn't impact winning.  There's no situation where we should take on his salary imo.  If he was making $15M a year, you start thinking about how to assimilate him into the culture but on that contract, he's completely toxic imo

[JTB]

14 hours ago, AHF said:

I don’t think I’ve ever heard Ayton described as a guy with a great attitude.  Pretty sure he would still be in Phoenix if that was the case.  And what team that is looking to rebuild is looking to ditch a 25 year old 20/10 center with amazing physical tools and a great attitude?  
 

My take is it is precisely because of his approach to the game that Portland is moving on.  They saw enough to say they are out on him.  Price is tough but they knew his price when they traded for him.  It is what they’ve seen for his makeup since he has been there that has them saying, “yeah, no thanks.”

If we trade for him, I’ll hope to heck I’m wrong but he seems like a living embodiment of a massive red flag.

I haven’t seen any reports suggesting that they are moving on from Ayton.

Actually last public report I’ve seen is that Billups wants to play both Ayton at the 4 and Clingan at the 5.

they appear to be going to Minny route. Unless the insiders have heard otherwise I really don’t think Ayton is available.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, JTB said:

I haven’t seen any reports suggesting that they are moving on from Ayton.

Actually last public report I’ve seen is that Billups wants to play both Ayton at the 4 and Clingan at the 5.

they appear to be going to Minny route. Unless the insiders have heard otherwise I really don’t think Ayton is available.

3 days ago, rumors started up:

Trail Blazers Expected To Trade Deandre Ayton At Some Point This Year (msn.com)

ClutchPoints: Portland Trail Blazers might consider trading Deandre Ayton | Sports | thenassauguardian.com

Trail Blazers put star center up on the trade block | Sporting News

[capstone21]

Hopefully we don't pursue Ayton.

Lazy, no motor, EGO, no Defense and does not set screens 

He does like to get his own stats.

Portland fans can't get rid of him fast enough

[AtLaS]

It's just not that big a risk IMO.  The upside is tremendous, he fits exactly what we need offensively.  7'0, can stretch the floor, good rebounder, 25 years old.  You can win with him, he was key starter on a finals team, he was the starter on a team that finished #6, #3, and #9 in defensive rating 3 years in a row.

The downside is very low, his contract is only for 2 seasons and we wouldn't have to give up much to get him.  Would y'all really rather have CC over Ayton?  Next year he will be an expiring contract, those can always be moved.

He and Monty Williams had issues (Ayton wasn't the only one) and got traded to a rebuilding team in Portland who just blew up the roster. 

Many folks here talk about trading Hunter for a heavily protected pick 3 years into the future but don't want Ayton.  I don't get it.

Who else that fits what we need at C is realistically available for less than a haul of talent and/or picks?