2024-25 Insider Thread

[kg01]

54 minutes ago, JTB said:

...

they appear to be going to Minny route. Unless the insiders have heard otherwise I really don’t think Ayton is available.

Nah, the insiders asleep at the wheel.  This is all about the outsiders, baybee.

I think POR has a logjam at the 5.  Ayton at the 4 would be a 'make do' plan, imho.  They probably need to move either him or R. Williams who has minimal value since he's damaged goods. 

[bird_dirt]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

3 days ago, rumors started up:

Trail Blazers Expected To Trade Deandre Ayton At Some Point This Year (msn.com)

ClutchPoints: Portland Trail Blazers might consider trading Deandre Ayton | Sports | thenassauguardian.com

Trail Blazers put star center up on the trade block | Sporting News

This sounds like they need a half season to pump out some PR driven puff pieces on Ayton, with plenty of quotes from coaches talking about how get he’s been buying into their system, a true professional, etc. 

They aren’t going to be able to trade him as is now, but they don’t want to go through another full season with him. They need to limit his exposure to the press and pump up his stock. 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

[LucastheThird]

7 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

This is where we have to remember that Pat Bev is still one of the top 1,000 in the world at basketball. He's still good enough to be a part of the most elite league in the world. He would absolutely destroy the majority of the world in his profession. 

 

The quote is fun to laugh at, but he is right. He will probably cook a bit in that league, even at his age. 

Edited August 9 by LucastheThird

[AHF]

Given he is joining what I assume is a fairly low level Israeli league, he probably will dominate.  It is just that he has never been even an average offensive player in the NBA and he acts like the NBA has done him wrong by not making him the featured player on offense on a team with Giannis.  I’m laughing at him playing the victim like that.

[REHawksFan]

18 hours ago, AtLaS said:

It's just not that big a risk IMO.  The upside is tremendous, he fits exactly what we need offensively.  7'0, can stretch the floor, good rebounder, 25 years old.  You can win with him, he was key starter on a finals team, he was the starter on a team that finished #6, #3, and #9 in defensive rating 3 years in a row.

The downside is very low, his contract is only for 2 seasons and we wouldn't have to give up much to get him.  Would y'all really rather have CC over Ayton?  Next year he will be an expiring contract, those can always be moved.

He and Monty Williams had issues (Ayton wasn't the only one) and got traded to a rebuilding team in Portland who just blew up the roster. 

Many folks here talk about trading Hunter for a heavily protected pick 3 years into the future but don't want Ayton.  I don't get it.

Who else that fits what we need at C is realistically available for less than a haul of talent and/or picks?

As with everything else, it just depends on what you are giving up to get him.  Are we just trading Clint and Nance for Ayton straight up?  Are we expected to throw in a pick?  

I would trade Clint and Nance for Ayton without any picks.  It's a risk but you can try starting DA and having OO be the backup 4 and 5.  

I'm not giving up the Lakers pick to acquire him.  Honestly, I may not give up Nance to acquire him, but the money works with him I think.  

I'm not one who thinks Ayton is the scarlet letter but I'm also not one that thinks he's a slam dunk asset.  It's risky.  It could go either way.  The Hawks don't have an abundance of assets to begin with, so I'm not giving up anything I value asset wise to get him.  

While I like the potential of Ayton, there's a real, legit stink around him.  Young, talented center that puts up 17/10 on 62% TS on a team trying to contend and they trade him for Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, Nurjic, and Keon Johnson?  Nah....something stinks.  

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

As with everything else, it just depends on what you are giving up to get him.  Are we just trading Clint and Nance for Ayton straight up?  Are we expected to throw in a pick?  

I would trade Clint and Nance for Ayton without any picks.  It's a risk but you can try starting DA and having OO be the backup 4 and 5.  

I'm not giving up the Lakers pick to acquire him.  Honestly, I may not give up Nance to acquire him, but the money works with him I think.  

Only thing I would be interested in trading is CC $22.2 mil and Zeller $3.5 mil (Dec 15th) plus another small contract like Roddy $2.8 mil.  Ayton is $34 mil.

That's a $5.5 mil difference to the Hawks cap sheet, but it will also put them over the LT, so unfortunately it won't happen.

The other thing to consider is Ayton's $35 mil next season with JJ's new contract also coming into play.

Sending out a pick has not even crossed my mind.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Trade Details

Los Angeles Lakers Receive: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela

Atlanta Hawks Receive: Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, 2025 Second-Round Pick (LAL), 2027 Second-Round Pick (LAL)

The Hawks take on the albatross contract of Vincent in this deal which is giving them two young and valuable rotational players that can fit around Trae Young right now to keep their team viable as a playoff threat. Meanwhile, JJ Redick gets his wish of adding a big man next to Anthony Davis while getting an elite shooter like Bogdan Bogdanovic on an expiring contract.

The Hawks Start To Pivot While Staying In The Playoff Hunt

The Hawks would have accepted Reaves along with picks for Dejounte Murray if the Lakers offered that package, but they wanted a lot back then. If they can compromise and take Reaves in lieu of major draft compensation for two veterans, the Hawks can find themselves in a healthier position going forward. They get rid of two players who are 30+ while adding younger talent that could help them immediately as proven NBA rotational players.

The Hawks won't want to keep Trae Young and tank outright, but they could put the pieces of success around Young starting now and have a core that grows together. With players like Young, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu, Reaves and Hachimura fit that perfectly. Reaves would be a high-IQ combo guard next to Young who is a high-effort team defender, while Hachimura is a versatile forward who can play across the frontcourt and provide competent two-way play.

 

https://fadeawayworld.net/lakers-land-serbian-sniper-rim-protector-mock-trade-deal-hawks

[AHF]

I'm not a big fan of Rui (and think Reaves is overrated by LA fans) this isn't the worst trade idea in the world.  Reaves and Bogi are very similar players and Reaves is both younger and cheaper.  Rui and Vincent are both grossly overpaid but Rui is at least useful as a backup although he would have a very limited role here for a $17M player.  

A big problem with the trade is that it would push us over the tax line and we would need to cut someone to fit the players in.  Seems like including a low $ player from our end would help us meet the mandatory "avoid the tax" requirement for this team.

This trade would make me sad but there is at least a logic I could see behind this trade unlike many of the Hawks trades proposed in the media.

[djjob23]

For the anti-Ayton crowd, how can the Hawks upgrade the C position? JoeLLLL, AD, KAT, Allen, Claxton, Kessler, Lauri? Cause to me I see 5 paths:

1. Stay put because “We like our core” (current status). No C upgrade and ATL continues to have size/spacing issues (regardless of OO’s improvements as he’s best suited as a 4/5 backup). This path likely gives ATL another middling (36 or fewer win) season that gives Trae one more notch on his “Traed Me” belt. 
2. Sign a star C in FA (very unlikely). Set aside the ATL FO inexperience in signing big FA (balked this year), this team doesn’t have the cap flexibility to sign anybody better than OO/Capela (especially after a potential JJ extension). Even if ATL loses Capela and Nance next offseason and trades Hunter to try signing someone (like Myles, Sengun, etc), we just saw upgrades like Allen, Claxton, and Lauri stay with their respective teams and get pay days due to their values. If ATL sold Trae on this idea and balk again, see path 1. 
3. Wait for a star C to request a trade to ATL (extremely unlikely). If hell froze over and this happened, how much would it cost ATL? So far, the ATL FO has shown they aren’t capable of navigating blockbuster trades without overpaying. When was the last time a star requested a trade to Atlanta? 
4. Draft a starting caliber C (risky). With the LAL pick next year, ATL could be looking at players like Khaman Maluach / Rocco Zikarsky / Aaron Bradshaw. However, getting NBA proven talent is more valuable for a win-now team like ATL than relying on an unproven rookie. If Trae wanted ATL to trade this years #1 pick for win-now players and the FO wants Trae staying, then see path 5.
5. Find available young talented players that fit team needs (starting caliber offensive C who rebounds and can protect the paint) and buy low (winning move). Not too many players fit this path that a team can buy at a value, but DA is one that can fit this path. If DA didn’t have a bumpy history, he’d be just as if not more untouchable/unavailable than stars/players that fit ATL’s needs.

It’s easily forgotten that players are YOUNG when they start their NBA career and could mature over time and with a better environment (see Zach Randolph). I think DA was able to grow in a healthy manner in Portland (who dealt with loads of injuries last year). If you see any Portland forum at the end of the season, most fans loved DA’s growth/maturity and saw a future dynamic duo in DA and Scoot as the rookie improved throughout the year, but their FO ultimately went the rebuilding/cheaper route (sound familiar?). DA needs a feeder to thrive and there’s NOBODY that spams C better than Trae in the league. I believe DA fits ATL so well, he would LOVE playing there, and would be a solid locker room voice being on a young, talented, hungry team (like he did in POR).

Including the LAL 1st is an overpay for DA, but I can see it involved should ATL be dealing with a rebuilding team like POR looking to get off bigger contracts (regardless of talent) and gain draft capital (especially with our FO’s trade history). At the end of the day, ATL could see this offseason shake out to DJM, CC for DD, DA, Roddy, Zeller, and 2027 1st. In my book, that’s a winning offseason that addresses most of ATL’s team needs!

Trae / Bufkin / Wallace (2w)
DD / Bogi / Mathews / Lundy (2w)
ZR / Hunter / Vit
JJ / Gueye / Roddy / Barlow (2w)
DA / OO / Zeller

Edited August 9 by djjob23

[AtLaS]

6 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

As with everything else, it just depends on what you are giving up to get him.  Are we just trading Clint and Nance for Ayton straight up?  Are we expected to throw in a pick?  

I would trade Clint and Nance for Ayton without any picks.  It's a risk but you can try starting DA and having OO be the backup 4 and 5.  

I'm not giving up the Lakers pick to acquire him.  Honestly, I may not give up Nance to acquire him, but the money works with him I think.  

I'm not one who thinks Ayton is the scarlet letter but I'm also not one that thinks he's a slam dunk asset.  It's risky.  It could go either way.  The Hawks don't have an abundance of assets to begin with, so I'm not giving up anything I value asset wise to get him.  

While I like the potential of Ayton, there's a real, legit stink around him.  Young, talented center that puts up 17/10 on 62% TS on a team trying to contend and they trade him for Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, Nurjic, and Keon Johnson?  Nah....something stinks.  

The stink is why his trade value is low.  He is actually obtainable, without giving up much.  It's low risk.  Players without "stink" with his talent aren't obtainable without giving up a ton.  That's why to me it's worth the risk.  If he sucks we can dump him on someone else, he will be an expiring next year.  It won't sting that much since we didn't give up much for him.  

Rasheed Wallace had a stink around him before Detroit traded for him, Billups was traded 3 times before Detroit.  Kyrie had a stink on him until last year.  Dallas gave up scrubs, 2 2nd rounders and 1 2029 1st for him.  You think that wasn't a steal?  Hell a lot of ppl think Trae doesn't have value, he's the WOAT on defense and is a coach killer.  

I understand the hesitancy and I wouldn't give up a pick for him, but if the cost is Hunter/Nance, or CC/Nance I'm on that all day.

[Wretch]

2 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

As with everything else, it just depends on what you are giving up to get him.  Are we just trading Clint and Nance for Ayton straight up?  Are we expected to throw in a pick?  

I would trade Clint and Nance for Ayton without any picks.  It's a risk but you can try starting DA and having OO be the backup 4 and 5.  

I'm not giving up the Lakers pick to acquire him.  Honestly, I may not give up Nance to acquire him, but the money works with him I think.  

I'm not one who thinks Ayton is the scarlet letter but I'm also not one that thinks he's a slam dunk asset.  It's risky.  It could go either way.  The Hawks don't have an abundance of assets to begin with, so I'm not giving up anything I value asset wise to get him.  

While I like the potential of Ayton, there's a real, legit stink around him.  Young, talented center that puts up 17/10 on 62% TS on a team trying to contend and they trade him for Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, Nurjic, and Keon Johnson?  Nah....something stinks.  

I'm not Anti-Ayton either.  We'd always want to come out ahead, but I'm honestly ok with paying whatever the fair market value is for him - and the market is probably as low as it will get.  I'll leave the salaries to the capologists, but taking him on in the middle of his extension lines up with Trae's window.  We'll not be stuck with him if it blows up in our face.  

I'd surely burn a lottery protected first on him as the base.  He's worth that.  I think the risk/reward is there.  I would absolutely not consider this trade if we didn't have Trae.  It's purely because of how elite he is at elevating other players and how the ideal fits for him are shooters and a versatile big.  I think that gives us an advantage as other teams may not have the risk tolerance (on or off the court) or the fit. 

He'd be an interesting get.  Could be a redemption arc for dude, but I do think he spits in the face of "Hawks DNA" 100% lol 

[AHF]

The risk with him is that adding his salary will put us in a bind next season.  So he had better be worth the $35.5M.  The good news is if Portland is ready to dump his salary then we should be able to get  him without giving up a pick.  Heck, Portland got him without giving up a pick so why would they think they would get one for him now?

He was acquired by Portland for Keon Johnson, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic.   That is a dump.  His value sure hasn't increased since then.

[Wretch]

23 minutes ago, AHF said:

The risk with him is that adding his salary will put us in a bind next season.  So he had better be worth the $35.5M.  The good news is if Portland is ready to dump his salary then we should be able to get  him without giving up a pick.  Heck, Portland got him without giving up a pick so why would they think they would get one for him now?

He was acquired by Portland for Keon Johnson, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic.   That is a dump.  His value sure hasn't increased since then.

Scared money don't make money AHF! LOL!  I hear you and I hear the anti-Ayton crowd, but I think the fit and path to redemption is there.  Like I said, I'd only consider this because I've seen how Trae unlocks players.  For me, it's just a question of financial risk and I'd totally be willing to risk Ressler's money on this.

I'm curious to know if he were offered in a legit dump from Portland, would you honestly be opposed?

[djjob23]

41 minutes ago, AHF said:

The risk with him is that adding his salary will put us in a bind next season.  So he had better be worth the $35.5M.  The good news is if Portland is ready to dump his salary then we should be able to get  him without giving up a pick.  Heck, Portland got him without giving up a pick so why would they think they would get one for him now?

He was acquired by Portland for Keon Johnson, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic.   That is a dump.  His value sure hasn't increased since then.

Value wise to me… Nurkic (top 20 C with 3 yrs left on contract), Keon Johnson (21st pick in 2021 and 21yo), Nassir Little (25th pick in 2019 and 23yo) = CC (top 15 expiring C), Nance (solid expiring backup C), and a lottery protected 1st. If ATL had a competent FO that could negotiate, then it’d be fair value to trade CC, Nance and the 2027 1st (via NOP/MIL) for DA. However (based on ATL’s FO history), I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the LAL 1st. Regardless, although the LAL 1st is too much of an overpay for DA, a normal overpay is expected to get a deal done. It’s also important to factor in DA’s growth and his current market value when comparing his trade value from last offseason. It shouldn’t be much different, but just something to consider when comparing.

Edited August 9 by djjob23

[capstone21]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I'm not a big fan of Rui (and think Reaves is overrated by LA fans) this isn't the worst trade idea in the world.  Reaves and Bogi are very similar players and Reaves is both younger and cheaper.  Rui and Vincent are both grossly overpaid but Rui is at least useful as a backup although he would have a very limited role here for a $17M player.  

A big problem with the trade is that it would push us over the tax line and we would need to cut someone to fit the players in.  Seems like including a low $ player from our end would help us meet the mandatory "avoid the tax" requirement for this team.

This trade would make me sad but there is at least a logic I could see behind this trade unlike many of the Hawks trades proposed in the media.

The bad part is LA instantly get better and that makes their pick worse for us

[AHF]

39 minutes ago, Wretch said:

Scared money don't make money AHF! LOL!  I hear you and I hear the anti-Ayton crowd, but I think the fit and path to redemption is there.  Like I said, I'd only consider this because I've seen how Trae unlocks players.  For me, it's just a question of financial risk and I'd totally be willing to risk Ressler's money on this.

I'm curious to know if he were offered in a legit dump from Portland, would you honestly be opposed?

I would be terrified.  I think he is someone whose attitude and level of engagement is going to prevent him from ever reaching his potential and will lead to a massive decrease in his next contract because no one is going to be willing to bet on him again.  But I at least see appeal here.  My issue is that I'm  skeptical that the redemption story plays out.  Is he more Chauncey Billups or more Ben Simmons?  I lean towards the latter but I don't know the man and so am just speculating based on what we've seen of his career to date.

If I was the Hawks GM I would sure want Quin pushing me for it and would want to look Ayton in the eye before pulling the trigger.  I would also want to plan out the 2025-26 payroll because it would hurt to have to salary dump Bogi or something to get under the tax line (assuming this remains the mandate of the owner and FO).

3 minutes ago, capstone21 said:

The bad part is LA instantly get better and that makes their pick worse for us

Good point.

[REHawksFan]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Trade Details

Los Angeles Lakers Receive: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela

Atlanta Hawks Receive: Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, 2025 Second-Round Pick (LAL), 2027 Second-Round Pick (LAL)

The Hawks take on the albatross contract of Vincent in this deal which is giving them two young and valuable rotational players that can fit around Trae Young right now to keep their team viable as a playoff threat. Meanwhile, JJ Redick gets his wish of adding a big man next to Anthony Davis while getting an elite shooter like Bogdan Bogdanovic on an expiring contract.

The Hawks Start To Pivot While Staying In The Playoff Hunt

The Hawks would have accepted Reaves along with picks for Dejounte Murray if the Lakers offered that package, but they wanted a lot back then. If they can compromise and take Reaves in lieu of major draft compensation for two veterans, the Hawks can find themselves in a healthier position going forward. They get rid of two players who are 30+ while adding younger talent that could help them immediately as proven NBA rotational players.

The Hawks won't want to keep Trae Young and tank outright, but they could put the pieces of success around Young starting now and have a core that grows together. With players like Young, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu, Reaves and Hachimura fit that perfectly. Reaves would be a high-IQ combo guard next to Young who is a high-effort team defender, while Hachimura is a versatile forward who can play across the frontcourt and provide competent two-way play.

 

https://fadeawayworld.net/lakers-land-serbian-sniper-rim-protector-mock-trade-deal-hawks

 

ZERO interest in giving up Bogi.  Also, since when is he expiring?  I thought he had 2 years left??  

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I'm not a big fan of Rui (and think Reaves is overrated by LA fans) this isn't the worst trade idea in the world.  Reaves and Bogi are very similar players and Reaves is both younger and cheaper.  Rui and Vincent are both grossly overpaid but Rui is at least useful as a backup although he would have a very limited role here for a $17M player.  

A big problem with the trade is that it would push us over the tax line and we would need to cut someone to fit the players in.  Seems like including a low $ player from our end would help us meet the mandatory "avoid the tax" requirement for this team.

This trade would make me sad but there is at least a logic I could see behind this trade unlike many of the Hawks trades proposed in the media.

I hate Reaves game. I am a lot higher on Bogi

[RedDawg#8]

8 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I hate Reaves game. I am a lot higher on Bogi

Reaves is so overrated. He is not a needle mover on a team that does have Lebron on it.