2024-25 Insider Thread

[Wretch]

58 minutes ago, AHF said:

I would be terrified.  I think he is someone whose attitude and level of engagement is going to prevent him from ever reaching his potential and will lead to a massive decrease in his next contract because no one is going to be willing to bet on him again.  But I at least see appeal here.  My issue is that I'm  skeptical that the redemption story plays out.  Is he more Chauncey Billups or more Ben Simmons?  I lean towards the latter but I don't know the man and so am just speculating based on what we've seen of his career to date.

If I was the Hawks GM I would sure want Quin pushing me for it and would want to look Ayton in the eye before pulling the trigger.  I would also want to plan out the 2025-26 payroll because it would hurt to have to salary dump Bogi or something to get under the tax line (assuming this remains the mandate of the owner and FO).

Good point.

This is why I would not pursue him absent quite literally Trae Young in a Hawks uniform.  He's 100% damaged goods for any other scenario and not worth the risk.  You confirmed my own thoughts as well in mentioning talking with him and getting the coaching staff involved.  It would have to be a joint decision to move on it.

All that aside, the buy low scenario doesn't get much more optimal.  Picking him up for pennies as a UFA, but even that is an incentive for him to get right.  If he doesn't get right after another change of scenery, he now carries the stigma of being stupid enough to leave a lot of easy money on the table.  There'd be no question about his maturity and motor.  He'd be a completely toxic asset.

[JayBirdHawk]

4 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Reaves is so overrated. He is not a needle mover on a team that does have Lebron on it.

Reaves is the next Horton-Tucker.....overated because he plays for LAL. Now not much.

[AtLaS]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I would be terrified.  I think he is someone whose attitude and level of engagement is going to prevent him from ever reaching his potential and will lead to a massive decrease in his next contract because no one is going to be willing to bet on him again.  But I at least see appeal here.  My issue is that I'm  skeptical that the redemption story plays out.  Is he more Chauncey Billups or more Ben Simmons?  I lean towards the latter but I don't know the man and so am just speculating based on what we've seen of his career to date.

If I was the Hawks GM I would sure want Quin pushing me for it and would want to look Ayton in the eye before pulling the trigger.  I would also want to plan out the 2025-26 payroll because it would hurt to have to salary dump Bogi or something to get under the tax line (assuming this remains the mandate of the owner and FO).

Good point.

I don't see any scenario where we would have to salary dump Bogi or someone else because of Ayton.  If Ayton is a headcase and the team is .500 and a play-in team next season, then Ayton will be an expiring contract.  Those can always be moved, especially ones that come with a productive, albeit headcase type of player.  A team who has a veteran leader like a LeBron and thinks they are one piece away would take him on.  

If we dumped Bogi, it could mean two things.  Either the team just isn't good and we are getting as much value back for him as we can, or Ayton is everything we hoped he would be and we need to make room for his next contract.  At this point, Ayton is playing for his next contract so he has a LOT of incentive to not goof off.  I like that scenario.

The downside of trading for Ayton is very low IMO if we don't have to give up anything of value in the trade.  He has some issues but I just can't see any way that the team would be better off with CC.

[AHF]

35 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

I don't see any scenario where we would have to salary dump Bogi or someone else because of Ayton.  If Ayton is a headcase and the team is .500 and a play-in team next season, then Ayton will be an expiring contract.  Those can always be moved, especially ones that come with a productive, albeit headcase type of player.  A team who has a veteran leader like a LeBron and thinks they are one piece away would take him on.  

If we dumped Bogi, it could mean two things.  Either the team just isn't good and we are getting as much value back for him as we can, or Ayton is everything we hoped he would be and we need to make room for his next contract.  At this point, Ayton is playing for his next contract so he has a LOT of incentive to not goof off.  I like that scenario.

The downside of trading for Ayton is very low IMO if we don't have to give up anything of value in the trade.  He has some issues but I just can't see any way that the team would be better off with CC.

Here is what I'm expecting:  Right now we have Nance and Capela expiring which creates room for us to resign JJ without going over the cap next season.  If we trade them for Ayton without including more salary, it not only pushes us over the cap this year but makes it all but impossible to resign JJ next year without needing to salary dump someone.  

Maybe I'm wrong and hopefully someone has the salaries lined up and can give us the details on how this would play out.  But I would expect us to be materially over the cap next year if we simply deal Nance and Capela for Ayton and which would then require use to dump a material salary.  I mentioned Bogi as someone who I am sure we could easily move.  Hunter would almost surely be preferred as a dump candidate but it might be hard to find anyone who would take him into their cap room without some serious assets being attached.

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I hate Reaves game. I am a lot higher on Bogi

I am much higher on Bogi too.  I'm just saying there isn't a huge gap in their production.

Both guys would definitely see dips in their numbers / efficiency if they were forced to be more premium options in offenses without stars with the gravity of LeBron or Trae.  Beyond just his veteran savvy, I've got an affection for Bogi I doubt I would have for Reaves so I'm not rooting for the trade.  The reasons for me to dislike the trade go at least as much to the impact on our cap management and the LA pick this year than due to this downgrade though because I think getting a 26 year old player on a $13M contract versus a 32 year old player on a $17M contract means you can downgrade some for this season and still justify the deal.

[JeffS17]

Buying low to me is when you grab an unpolished rookie who has lots of uncertain upside, or a guy coming off an injury, or playing in a toxic environment, etc.  Ayton is the toxic environment.  Ayton is a penny stock worth 35 cents that has a 2% chance of being worth $2 next year but a 98% chance of being worth a nickel.  The idea of buying low presumes there is some reason the value is low today and will not be tomorrow.  Unless we get intel Ayton has an incredible therapist, I'm steering clear

[JeffS17]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

Here is what I'm expecting:  Right now we have Nance and Capela expiring which creates room for us to resign JJ without going over the cap next season.  If we trade them for Ayton without including more salary, it not only pushes us over the cap this year but makes it all but impossible to resign JJ next year without needing to salary dump someone.  

Maybe I'm wrong and hopefully someone has the salaries lined up and can give us the details on how this would play out.  But I would expect us to be materially over the cap next year if we simply deal Nance and Capela for Ayton and which would then require use to dump a material salary.  I mentioned Bogi as someone who I am sure we could easily move.  Hunter would almost surely be preferred as a dump candidate but it might be hard to find anyone who would take him into their cap room without some serious assets being attached.

I am much higher on Bogi too.  I'm just saying there isn't a huge gap in their production.

Both guys would definitely see dips in their numbers / efficiency if they were forced to be more premium options in offenses without stars with the gravity of LeBron or Trae.  Beyond just his veteran savvy, I've got an affection for Bogi I doubt I would have for Reaves so I'm not rooting for the trade.  The reasons for me to dislike the trade go at least as much to the impact on our cap management and the LA pick this year than due to this downgrade though because I think getting a 26 year old player on a $13M contract versus a 32 year old player on a $17M contract means you can downgrade some for this season and still justify the deal.

I actually don't mind that trade as outlined.  Reaves is younger and less injury prone, would set us up for the future well.  I love Bogi though and he probably carries a premium just for how much the FO, Trae, and fans love him

I've mentioned before I think Bogi is a perfect sell high candidate -- these Olympics really exacerbate that.

[Wretch]

2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

 Unless we get intel Ayton has an incredible therapist, I'm steering clear

That forced an audible chuckle out of me. I do agree, but I suppose have more of a risk appetite.  Not generally speaking, but because I think it's a good "on paper" fit for Trae.  I've also seen the worst of players find redemption.  Seriously, it doesn't get more toxic than the Malice in the Palace or more mentally exhausting than Ron "I just need a few months off to record a rap album" Artest.

Not disputing your position, just reinforcing my own as it were.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

I actually don't mind that trade as outlined.  Reaves is younger and less injury prone, would set us up for the future well.  I love Bogi though and he probably carries a premium just for how much the FO, Trae, and fans love him

The cap challenge would be that none of these guys are expiring contracts and we are giving up $20M in expiring Capela.  I think it is reasonable as far as talent in the abstract.  

1 hour ago, Wretch said:

All that aside, the buy low scenario doesn't get much more optimal.  Picking him up for pennies as a UFA, but even that is an incentive for him to get right.  If he doesn't get right after another change of scenery, he now carries the stigma of being stupid enough to leave a lot of easy money on the table.  There'd be no question about his maturity and motor.  He'd be a completely toxic asset.

 

9 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Buying low to me is when you grab an unpolished rookie who has lots of uncertain upside, or a guy coming off an injury, or playing in a toxic environment, etc.  Ayton is the toxic environment.  Ayton is a penny stock worth 35 cents that has a 2% chance of being worth $2 next year but a 98% chance of being worth a nickel.  The idea of buying low presumes there is some reason the value is low today and will not be tomorrow.  Unless we get intel Ayton has an incredible therapist, I'm steering clear

Buying low is just acquiring someone at a low cost relative to their future value.  For example, I think Dallas bought low on Kyrie Irving despite him being on a big contract.  He had been unavailable and unengaged in recent times but returned to his more normal outstanding production this season.  His reputation is now improved and he would cost more to acquire him from Dallas than it cost Dallas to get him.  That could be Ayton if he improves his image for his next team. 

Where I differ some on Ayton from Wretch is that if he doesn't change his ways I don't think he is worth his current contract.  In that sense, his next FA contract is where I would anticipate him being a true buy low opportunity because I don't think he will get anything close to $35M on his next deal.  For me, whether it is a buy low chance on him depends on what I project from him going forward.  If he isn't worth $35M a year, it isn't buying low because he will still be giving you less than you are paying him.  Plus we already know his market value.  We just saw Portland trade for him and what we would be giving up would be very much on par with that so it isn't like he would have cost a mint a year ago but now you can get him super cheap or something.  

[JeffS17]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

Buying low is just acquiring someone at a low cost relative to their projected future value.

Added one word here but yeah, I get it.  I'm just outlining the types of players I think of as buy low projects.  Guys with attitude issues on max contracts aren't really it.  Buying low implies a big opportunity to outperform the contract, and like you said, Ayton isn't even worth his current contract, so I see Ayton as a falling knife, much like Ben Simmons.  

[AtLaS]

5 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Added one word here but yeah, I get it.  I'm just outlining the types of players I think of as buy low projects.  Guys with attitude issues on max contracts aren't really it.  Buying low implies a big opportunity to outperform the contract, and like you said, Ayton isn't even worth his current contract, so I see Ayton as a falling knife, much like Ben Simmons.  

Ben Simmons?  That's an outrageous comparison.  

Ayton is a productive player.  Y'all act like he just got off parole or something.  He's just slightly overpaid, that's all.  But he's a perfect fit talent wise with this team.  His archetype is exactly what we are missing.  We have no chance at getting any of the other stretch 5's unless we trade multiple firsts and young talent away with it.  

DA has been a starter on a winning team, that had three top 10 defensive rated finishes, and made the finals and was a key contributor.  

CC and Nance are likely gone next year anyway.  Ayton is better than both of them.  Even if he flops, he will be an expiring next offseason which can be easily dumped if we needed to.

[JTB]

5 hours ago, djjob23 said:

For the anti-Ayton crowd, how can the Hawks upgrade the C position? JoeLLLL, AD, KAT, Allen, Claxton, Kessler, Lauri? Cause to me I see 5 paths:

1. Stay put because “We like our core” (current status). No C upgrade and ATL continues to have size/spacing issues (regardless of OO’s improvements as he’s best suited as a 4/5 backup). This path likely gives ATL another middling (36 or fewer win) season that gives Trae one more notch on his “Traed Me” belt. 
2. Sign a star C in FA (very unlikely). Set aside the ATL FO inexperience in signing big FA (balked this year), this team doesn’t have the cap flexibility to sign anybody better than OO/Capela (especially after a potential JJ extension). Even if ATL loses Capela and Nance next offseason and trades Hunter to try signing someone (like Myles, Sengun, etc), we just saw upgrades like Allen, Claxton, and Lauri stay with their respective teams and get pay days due to their values. If ATL sold Trae on this idea and balk again, see path 1. 
3. Wait for a star C to request a trade to ATL (extremely unlikely). If hell froze over and this happened, how much would it cost ATL? So far, the ATL FO has shown they aren’t capable of navigating blockbuster trades without overpaying. When was the last time a star requested a trade to Atlanta? 
4. Draft a starting caliber C (risky). With the LAL pick next year, ATL could be looking at players like Khaman Maluach / Rocco Zikarsky / Aaron Bradshaw. However, getting NBA proven talent is more valuable for a win-now team like ATL than relying on an unproven rookie. If Trae wanted ATL to trade this years #1 pick for win-now players and the FO wants Trae staying, then see path 5.
5. Find available young talented players that fit team needs (starting caliber offensive C who rebounds and can protect the paint) and buy low (winning move). Not too many players fit this path that a team can buy at a value, but DA is one that can fit this path. If DA didn’t have a bumpy history, he’d be just as if not more untouchable/unavailable than stars/players that fit ATL’s needs.

It’s easily forgotten that players are YOUNG when they start their NBA career and could mature over time and with a better environment (see Zach Randolph). I think DA was able to grow in a healthy manner in Portland (who dealt with loads of injuries last year). If you see any Portland forum at the end of the season, most fans loved DA’s growth/maturity and saw a future dynamic duo in DA and Scoot as the rookie improved throughout the year, but their FO ultimately went the rebuilding/cheaper route (sound familiar?). DA needs a feeder to thrive and there’s NOBODY that spams C better than Trae in the league. I believe DA fits ATL so well, he would LOVE playing there, and would be a solid locker room voice being on a young, talented, hungry team (like he did in POR).

Including the LAL 1st is an overpay for DA, but I can see it involved should ATL be dealing with a rebuilding team like POR looking to get off bigger contracts (regardless of talent) and gain draft capital (especially with our FO’s trade history). At the end of the day, ATL could see this offseason shake out to DJM, CC for DD, DA, Roddy, Zeller, and 2027 1st. In my book, that’s a winning offseason that addresses most of ATL’s team needs!

Trae / Bufkin / Wallace (2w)
DD / Bogi / Mathews / Lundy (2w)
ZR / Hunter / Vit
JJ / Gueye / Roddy / Barlow (2w)
DA / OO / Zeller

The Anti Ayton folks are currently blind but it’s all good.

To answer your question….this should have been addressed either in the draft or via trade. Unfortunately there are not many options of different makers at center available.

Ayton is clearly the best available center and likely was tied with Jarrett Allen before his extension but there are no impactful center options.

If we don’t land Ayton, we have to keep CC and OO in my opinion. The only way OO will be a better option at center than Ayton will be if OO gets a reliable 3pter…that’s it…that’s our options.

Teams are holding on to their centers and the whole small ball game is dying. We seem to be the only fan base stuck on only wanting mobile centers only rather than strong 7foot physical centers.

then folks wonder why we keep getting beat up in the paint by bigs who aren’t even considered great.

5 hours ago, AHF said:

The risk with him is that adding his salary will put us in a bind next season.  So he had better be worth the $35.5M.  The good news is if Portland is ready to dump his salary then we should be able to get  him without giving up a pick.  Heck, Portland got him without giving up a pick so why would they think they would get one for him now?

He was acquired by Portland for Keon Johnson, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic.   That is a dump.  His value sure hasn't increased since then.

In Atlanta he’s worth the 35.5mil ….the fit is bout as perfect as anyone can imagine.

4 hours ago, Wretch said:

Scared money don't make money AHF! LOL!  I hear you and I hear the anti-Ayton crowd, but I think the fit and path to redemption is there.  Like I said, I'd only consider this because I've seen how Trae unlocks players.  For me, it's just a question of financial risk and I'd totally be willing to risk Ressler's money on this.

I'm curious to know if he were offered in a legit dump from Portland, would you honestly be opposed?

Say it louder for people in the back @Wretch!

[djjob23]

49 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

Ben Simmons?  That's an outrageous comparison.  

Ayton is a productive player.  Y'all act like he just got off parole or something.  He's just slightly overpaid, that's all.  But he's a perfect fit talent wise with this team.  His archetype is exactly what we are missing.  We have no chance at getting any of the other stretch 5's unless we trade multiple firsts and young talent away with it.  

DA has been a starter on a winning team, that had three top 10 defensive rated finishes, and made the finals and was a key contributor.  

CC and Nance are likely gone next year anyway.  Ayton is better than both of them.  Even if he flops, he will be an expiring next offseason which can be easily dumped if we needed to.

This. To add, I think we should all look very closely at Trae Young right now. He can walk away from ATL in just 2 years time (2026 offseason Player Option). ATL’s window to convince him to stay is small… like this offseason small…

If ATL isn’t a contender next season, I think we’ll see Trae request a trade, which is exactly what rival teams want and why they are tanking his value so hard. In this scenario (should ATL not address starting C this offseason), if the ATL FO hasn’t improved on their trade negotiations, I think we are setup for a lose lose scenario where they either: (A) trade Trae for pennies on the dollar; or (B) keep a disgruntled superstar because the offers weren’t good enough and ATL sees him walk for nothing.

This is why I think it’s crucial ATL addresses their team needs NOW before we see a complete implosion and Ressler loses his golden egg (Trae) without owning any of their next 3 year picks (‘25, ‘26 pick swap, ‘27). The glaring hole right now is starting C, and right now (based on what’s available and what ATL can afford) DA is the only key I see right now that fits ATL’s needs the most and has the highest reward. If there’s another key, I implore anyone to shed some light on any other available candidates...

38 minutes ago, JTB said:

The Anti Ayton folks are currently blind but it’s all good.

To answer your question….this should have been addressed either in the draft or via trade. Unfortunately there are not many options of different makers at center available.

Ayton is clearly the best available center and likely was tied with Jarrett Allen before his extension but there are no impactful center options.

If we don’t land Ayton, we have to keep CC and OO in my opinion. The only way OO will be a better option at center than Ayton will be if OO gets a reliable 3pter…that’s it…that’s our options.

Teams are holding on to their centers and the whole small ball game is dying. We seem to be the only fan base stuck on only wanting mobile centers only rather than strong 7foot physical centers.

then folks wonder why we keep getting beat up in the paint by bigs who aren’t even considered great.

In Atlanta he’s worth the 35.5mil ….the fit is bout as perfect as anyone can imagine.

Say it louder for people in the back @Wretch!

Agreed! It feels like ATL is frozen in time while other teams are upgrading/improving/grinding getting bigger/stronger and leaving ATL in the dust. OO w/ reliable 3pt shot is 100% an upgrade, but I still see OO as a 4/5 tweener that doesn’t address the team’s size issue. If ATL plans to address size issue and want to keep Trae happy, it seems they’re now left with our final option of DA or bust.

Edited August 9 by djjob23

[Wretch]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

The cap challenge would be that none of these guys are expiring contracts and we are giving up $20M in expiring Capela.  I think it is reasonable as far as talent in the abstract.  

 

Buying low is just acquiring someone at a low cost relative to their future value.  For example, I think Dallas bought low on Kyrie Irving despite him being on a big contract.  He had been unavailable and unengaged in recent times but returned to his more normal outstanding production this season.  His reputation is now improved and he would cost more to acquire him from Dallas than it cost Dallas to get him.  That could be Ayton if he improves his image for his next team. 

Where I differ some on Ayton from Wretch is that if he doesn't change his ways I don't think he is worth his current contract.  In that sense, his next FA contract is where I would anticipate him being a true buy low opportunity because I don't think he will get anything close to $35M on his next deal.  For me, whether it is a buy low chance on him depends on what I project from him going forward.  If he isn't worth $35M a year, it isn't buying low because he will still be giving you less than you are paying him.  Plus we already know his market value.  We just saw Portland trade for him and what we would be giving up would be very much on par with that so it isn't like he would have cost a mint a year ago but now you can get him super cheap or something.  

This is where we diverge I suppose.  Buying low for me aligns more with cost and availability vs. cost and production.  Availability in my opinion is the biggest factor in the trade market and ranges on a scale from untouchable on the low side, to compensate through the nose, all the way up to "please take him."   Remove the mental issues, and Ayton is easily low to mid-low availability and right now he's like zero cost.

We both agree, optimally, buying low is his next contract.  Though, I imagine that if he doesn't turn it around, he'll be impossibly toxic outside of the lowest of lowball flyers taken on him.

[JeffS17]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Reaves is the next Horton-Tucker.....operated because fe plays for LAL. Now not much.

Reaves is a good player

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, AtLaS said:

I don't see any scenario where we would have to salary dump Bogi or someone else because of Ayton.  If

By my rough quick calculations, this is what the salaries would look like next season. @AHF

Hawks will have $115 mil in salaries for 11 players if we let CC, Nance and GMat expire. [I excluded JJ for this part of the exercise]

If we trade for Ayton's $35.5 mil, salary would be $150.5 mil for 12 players. Then add in the salaries for the two 2025 1st round picks say an estimated $14 mil (this will change depending on the pick slot) . That is $164.5 million for 14 players. If we assume JJ gets $25 million....that's a Total of $189.5 million.

The projected Salary Cap is $154.4 mill

The Luxury Tax threshold is projected to be $187.8 million.

Knowing what we know about the Hawks and their aversion to the tax, it makes it difficult to just add Ayton to the existing group without future considerations.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, djjob23 said:

It feels like ATL is frozen in time while other teams are upgrading/improving/grinding getting bigger/stronger and leaving ATL in the dust.

I can't disagree with this. The offseason has left me wanting.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Added one word here but yeah, I get it.  I'm just outlining the types of players I think of as buy low projects.  Guys with attitude issues on max contracts aren't really it.  Buying low implies a big opportunity to outperform the contract, and like you said, Ayton isn't even worth his current contract, so I see Ayton as a falling knife, much like Ben Simmons.  

Your addition is antithetical to buying low. Market rate is based on the market’s projected future performance. Buying low is buying where the market is lower than your projection and you are right so you reap the benefits when the stock, player, or whatever outperforms where the market was priced.

You and I are closer in our projections for Ayton’s future performance.

[djjob23]

6 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

By my rough quick calculations, this is what the salaries would look like next season. @AHF

Hawks will have $115 mil in salaries for 11 players if we let CC, Nance and GMat expire. [I excluded JJ for this part of the exercise]

If we trade for Ayton's $35.5 mil, salary would be $150.5 mil for 12 players. Then add in the salaries for the two 2025 1st round picks say an estimated $14 mil (this will change depending on the pick slot) . That is $164.5 million for 14 players. If we assume JJ gets $25 million....that's a Total of $189.5 million.

The projected Salary Cap is $154.4 mill

The Luxury Tax threshold is projected to be $187.8 million.

Knowing what we know about the Hawks and their aversion to the tax, it makes it difficult to just add Ayton to the existing group without future considerations.

 

Nice! So if ATL trades for DA but wants to be under the tax this year and next season, then how about the following trade package instead. This trade works only after Nance is trade eligible (Sep 4) and makes sure all teams stay under the tax. This trade looks balanced value wise and seems to address all team needs, but can see the DET 1st (protected) going to POR should push come to shove (based on our negotiation history):

ATL: CC, Hunter, Nance, 2025 1st (least favorable between SAC/LAL) —> DA, Thybulle, future 1st (via DET)
DET: THJ, future 1st (protected) —> Hunter
POR: DA, Thybulle —> CC, Nance, THJ, 2025 1st (via ATL)

Assuming these numbers are accurate for ATL’s next offseason cap and the trade above occurs, if JJ gets ~$25m, have 1 2025 1st (~$12m for #1 pick), and replace Hunter’s $23.3m next year salary with Thybulle’s $11.5m, then ATL is looking at around $175.8m total for 14 guaranteed contracts with enough space under the tax to sign someone or resign Nance/GMat. ATL could then use the 2025 1st to address any holes in the roster, but one hole that sticks out to me is the need for a strong, versatile, 3&D SF/PF (like Cooper Flagg, Donnie Freeman, Liam McNeeley). ATL’s 2025 roster could look something like this… SUPER SCARY!  

Trae | Bufkin | Vit
DD | Bogi | FA/GMat
ZR | Thybulle | Roddy
JJ | ’25 FRP | Gueye
DA | OO | Zeller

For this year, ATL would be losing offensive versatility and strength at SF/PF, but improving team/help/perimeter defense and offensive spacing. Based on the data, Thybulle’s game looks to fit better offensively with Trae (higher 3PA rate) compared to Hunter who thrives more as a 2-level shooter (midrange and 3s) rather than a spacer. Offensive core = Trae, JJ, DA, Bogi. Defensive core = DD, Thybulle, OO, ZR. That’s really solid balance on both ends, addresses team needs, and puts us in win-now mode.

Should this go south and Trae request a trade, we are only on the hook for this year and next year before Trae (PO), DA, and Thybulle’s contracts expire and we go into rebuild mode, so this doesn’t break the future bank either.

[Final_quest]

20 hours ago, AtLaS said:

I don't see any scenario where we would have to salary dump Bogi or someone else because of Ayton.  If Ayton is a headcase and the team is .500 and a play-in team next season, then Ayton will be an expiring contract.  Those can always be moved, especially ones that come with a productive, albeit headcase type of player.  A team who has a veteran leader like a LeBron and thinks they are one piece away would take him on.  

If we dumped Bogi, it could mean two things.  Either the team just isn't good and we are getting as much value back for him as we can, or Ayton is everything we hoped he would be and we need to make room for his next contract.  At this point, Ayton is playing for his next contract so he has a LOT of incentive to not goof off.  I like that scenario.

The downside of trading for Ayton is very low IMO if we don't have to give up anything of value in the trade.  He has some issues but I just can't see any way that the team would be better off with CC.

I don't follow the NBA at large like some people, but compared to other behavior issues with players I think Ayton's issues are not that serious.  He was an important player on a Finals team.  We forget how young these players come into the league.  I haven't seen any evidence of him being toxic.  Any negative reports from him having attitude problems in Portland?  

[Final_quest]

17 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

By my rough quick calculations, this is what the salaries would look like next season. @AHF

Hawks will have $115 mil in salaries for 11 players if we let CC, Nance and GMat expire. [I excluded JJ for this part of the exercise]

If we trade for Ayton's $35.5 mil, salary would be $150.5 mil for 12 players. Then add in the salaries for the two 2025 1st round picks say an estimated $14 mil (this will change depending on the pick slot) . That is $164.5 million for 14 players. If we assume JJ gets $25 million....that's a Total of $189.5 million.

The projected Salary Cap is $154.4 mill

The Luxury Tax threshold is projected to be $187.8 million.

Knowing what we know about the Hawks and their aversion to the tax, it makes it difficult to just add Ayton to the existing group without future considerations.

 

This is why I want to get rid of Hunter.  If adding a salary of Ayton's size is a problem, it wouldn't be a big deal with Hunter gone.  If you don't like Ayton, Hunter still keeps us from making moves to bring in high salary players we might want.