2024-25 Insider Thread

[AtLaS]

19 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

By my rough quick calculations, this is what the salaries would look like next season. @AHF

Hawks will have $115 mil in salaries for 11 players if we let CC, Nance and GMat expire. [I excluded JJ for this part of the exercise]

If we trade for Ayton's $35.5 mil, salary would be $150.5 mil for 12 players. Then add in the salaries for the two 2025 1st round picks say an estimated $14 mil (this will change depending on the pick slot) . That is $164.5 million for 14 players. If we assume JJ gets $25 million....that's a Total of $189.5 million.

The projected Salary Cap is $154.4 mill

The Luxury Tax threshold is projected to be $187.8 million.

Knowing what we know about the Hawks and their aversion to the tax, it makes it difficult to just add Ayton to the existing group without future considerations.

 

Thanks for this!

I don't think we should avoid making moves this year because it might put us in the tax next year.  We can deal with that next year.  We will have a full season to evaluate players and determine who needs to stay and go.  Even if your numbers are accurate, we would be a measley 1.7 million over the tax threshold.  If we needed to find a way out of that we can.

Not to mention, 14 million for 2 first rounders is a lofty expectation.  I HOPE that is the case, that would mean the Lakers pick is super high. We may not even get the Kings pick, but if we do it's top 12 protected.  The #13 pick in the draft next year will make 4.2 million, and the salary keeps going down from there the later in the draft it goes. 

In order for us to hit 14 mil for 2 rookies, the Lakers pick would need to be #1 or #2 overall as those are the only picks making 10+ million, a damn good problem for us to have.  I think it's more likely the Lakers pick ends in the 8-15 range which will probably be around 5M, keeping us out of the tax.  The likelyhood that the Kings pick lands at #13 and the Lakers pick is top 2 is nearly impossible, so I'm not worried about that and that would be a FANTASTIC problem to have.  Plus we could always dump Hunter/Ayton/Bogi, etc. 

If the team goes .500 next season we aren't going to pay the tax and fans will want to make major changes anyway.

If Ayton is a total steal and the team shows great promise, then again that's a great problem to have. 

Our thinking on this roster will be TOTALLY different next offseason.  

 

[AtLaS]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

I don't follow the NBA at large like some people, but compared to other behavior issues with players I think Ayton's issues are not that serious.  He was an important player on a Finals team.  We forget how young these players come into the league.  I haven't seen any evidence of him being toxic.  Any negative reports from him having attitude problems in Portland?  

Agreed, I think folks are way overplaying this narrative.  You could find bad attitude articles about Trae Young and DJM too.  

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, djjob23 said:

DET: THJ, future 1st (protected) —> Hunter

Detroit owes their 2025 1st to NYK. (Detroit's 1st round pick to New York protected for selections 1-13 in 2025, 1-11 in 2026 and 1-9 in 2027)

Which means The first pick Detroit can trade is in 2029. I don't see them tying up another future pick that far out. Not for a team like theirs.

 

[djjob23]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Detroit owes their 2025 1st to NYK. (Detroit's 1st round pick to New York protected for selections 1-13 in 2025, 1-11 in 2026 and 1-9 in 2027)

Which means The first pick Detroit can trade is in 2029. I don't see them tying up another future pick that far out. Not for a team like theirs.

 

Super helpful! Didn’t realize the DET 2025 1st owned by NYK had so much protection. I could still see DET trading their 2029 future 1st, but only if it’s heavily protected and not stretched out (1-14 in 2029, then 2 2nds if not conveyed). However, I think DET replacing the protected future 1st with 2/3 future 2nds would be close to equal value if preferred. Revised:

ATL: CC, Hunter, Nance, 2025 1st (least favorable between SAC/LAL) —> DA, Thybulle, 3 2nds (via DET)
DET: THJ, 3 2nds —> Hunter
POR: DA, Thybulle —> CC, Nance, THJ, 2025 1st (via ATL)

After this trade, the ATL roster would be super solid/balanced  (need more quality defense & shooting depth for big wings at SF/PF) and would be playoff contenders this year!

Trae | Bufkin | Wallace (2w)
DD | Bogi | Mathews
ZR | Thybulle | Lundy (2w)
JJ | Roddy | Gueye | Barlow (2w)
DA | OO | Zeller

Regardless, like @AtLaS said, ATL could still keep Hunter, get DA, and wait to see where the 2 2025 picks land as it should be manageable to get under the tax should they get to worst case scenario financially (land the #1 & #12 picks) and become over tax by less than $5m. Man… what a great problem to have!

Edited August 10 by djjob23

[AHF]

4 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I don't follow the NBA at large like some people, but compared to other behavior issues with players I think Ayton's issues are not that serious.  He was an important player on a Finals team.  We forget how young these players come into the league.  I haven't seen any evidence of him being toxic.  Any negative reports from him having attitude problems in Portland?  

Please explain how Phoenix got so very little for him if you don’t think other GMs view his attitude negatively.  IMO, the Suns would have gotten a LOT more for him if his attitude was as good as some of you guys think.

The fact that Portland immediately drafted over him is really compelling to me.  More so than anything Portland could say.  To me that is the most compelling negative report.  They already decided he isn’t their future.  (I don’t believe for a second they buy into Ayton and Clingan as twin towers in the same lineup although they may do it to pump his numbers in an attempt to pump his trade value).  It is a matter of time before they deal Ayton not a question of “if.”

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Please explain how Phoenix got so very little for him if you don’t think other GMs view his attitude negatively.  IMO, the Suns would have gotten a LOT more for him if his attitude was as good as some of you guys think.

The fact that Portland immediately drafted over him is really compelling to me.  More so than anything Portland could say.  To me that is the most compelling negative report.  They already decided he isn’t their future.  (I don’t believe for a second they buy into Ayton and Clingan as twin towers in the same lineup although they may do it to pump his numbers in an attempt to pump his trade value).  It is a matter of time before they deal Ayton not a question of “if.”

Simple, it’s just like our entire starting frontline was overpaid.  Teams didn’t want Collins, nor do they want Hunter or Capela.  Ayton is overpaid, no doubt, and he’s got a couple legitimate yellow flags with his character.  
Perfect players aren’t available, especially if all you give up is Capela and Nance.  But you’re putting words in my mouth again.  I never said GMs have a positive view on his attitude or that I think he has a good attitude.  All I said is he’s been part of a winning team before and I don’t know of any specific report where he’s been an attitude problem in Portland.  
I was actually asking for understanding on how much substance there is to the idea that Ayton is toxic.  
Rebuilding teams flip players all the time.  I think I read that was Utah’s plan with Collins.  But Collins didn’t restore value as Utah hoped.  Ayton being overpaid means teams will want to move him. Though  I’m definitely not an expert on Ayton’s game, or know enough to claim his attitude is fine.  

[JayBirdHawk]

 

[djjob23]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Simple, it’s just like our entire starting frontline was overpaid.  Teams didn’t want Collins, nor do they want Hunter or Capela.  Ayton is overpaid, no doubt, and he’s got a couple legitimate yellow flags with his character.  
Perfect players aren’t available, especially if all you give up is Capela and Nance.  But you’re putting words in my mouth again.  I never said GMs have a positive view on his attitude or that I think he has a good attitude.  All I said is he’s been part of a winning team before and I don’t know of any specific report where he’s been an attitude problem in Portland.  
I was actually asking for understanding on how much substance there is to the idea that Ayton is toxic.  
Rebuilding teams flip players all the time.  I think I read that was Utah’s plan with Collins.  But Collins didn’t restore value as Utah hoped.  Ayton being overpaid means teams will want to move him. Though  I’m definitely not an expert on Ayton’s game, or know enough to claim his attitude is fine.  

Hope these articles help answer the question on DA’s growth/personality after leaving Phoenix and getting a fresh start in Portland! Just goes to show that environment can make all the difference. I see a lot of similarities between DA and Zach Randolph.

https://www.nba.com/blazers/news/season-in-review-deandre-ayton
”However, Ayton’s positive influence in the locker room might have been one of his most important contributions during his first season in Portland. Ayton wanted to prove he had leadership qualities, something he didn’t get to display much on more the more veteran teams he played for in Phoenix, and one needed to only hear him deflect praise from himself and on to his teammates, something he did regularly this season, to understand his benefit in the Trail Blazers’ locker room.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2024/05/deandre-ayton-a-key-to-rip-citys-future-trail-blazers-season-review-look-ahead.html
“Over the final two months, Ayton demonstrated much-needed leadership to go along with his aggressive play on offense.”
”Ayton said that by late last season, he had become comfortable with coaches, the organization, and teammates. That should allow him to be a force at the start of next season.”

https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/4/16/24132115/trail-blazers-deandre-ayton-had-amazing-first-season-in-portland
“My first season here went amazing,” Ayton said via Danny Marang. “I got to truly see who I am as a player. I got a new start a lot of obstacles. I learned a lot about who I am - I learned I’m a leader, and through trials and tribulations I pushed through. How to be a true vet and example to how to approach the game. To keep my professionalism to a point that they can learn from it.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2024/04/trail-blazers-deandre-ayton-and-scoot-henderson-building-chemistry-thats-leading-to-victories.html
The Blazers have been playing without Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle and Malcolm Brogdon. That has left Ayton as the only player in the rotation with extensive NBA experience. It’s also made him the team’s leader, a role he has embraced. Blazers coach Chauncey Billups said he has been impressed by how Ayton has taken upon himself to do the little things that have helped Henderson and others flourish. “DA doesn’t get the credit for being as smart as he is on the floor,” Billups told reporters. “He’s understanding the angle in which he has to set the screens for Scoot as teams try to go under him. I say it all the time with that pick-and-roll, it’s the point guard and the big guy, it’s a two-way relationship. It takes some time to get used to. You can see them starting to develop some chemistry in the coverages that teams play against us and against Scoot, which obviously is totally different than with (Simons). So, it takes some concentration to be honest with you, but I just love to see that chemistry developing between those two guys.” Furthermore, Ayton has taken it upon himself to be the focal point and take the brunt of the pressure while also being encouraging to the younger players. “I always thought and think still that the best players should always deflect the attention because you naturally will get most of it,” Billups said. “And we all know as basketball players we can never do this thing alone. We know what it takes to go out there and play.”

Edited August 10 by djjob23

[LucastheThird]

Some people take a narrative and run with it. Monty Williams' messy behavior and comments that should have stayed in-house hurt DA's image. DA wants to be involved in the offense and feel like an important piece/leader. That can happen here in Atlanta with Trae spamming the 1-5 PnR. 

Portland has been vocal about DA and how he handled being a leader on a very young team that dealt with adversity with injuries last year. 

There are a lot of people here acting like this dude has a history of locker-room fights and other bad behavior. 

[AtLaS]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

Please explain how Phoenix got so very little for him if you don’t think other GMs view his attitude negatively.  IMO, the Suns would have gotten a LOT more for him if his attitude was as good as some of you guys think.

The fact that Portland immediately drafted over him is really compelling to me.  More so than anything Portland could say.  To me that is the most compelling negative report.  They already decided he isn’t their future.  (I don’t believe for a second they buy into Ayton and Clingan as twin towers in the same lineup although they may do it to pump his numbers in an attempt to pump his trade value).  It is a matter of time before they deal Ayton not a question of “if.”

Ayton is slightly overpaid, those players don't fetch good returns.  We didn't get anything for Collins, we probably won't get anything for Hunter either.  Attitude doesn't have much to do with it.

Portland is rebuilding, why would they draft for need?  To them Clingan was the best player on the board and they took him, who cares about position?  It will also keep them in the lottery the next couple years as they want to add more talent.  Regardless I tend to agree with the pick, at #7 Clingan was a no brainer.  Portland is the ultimate team that knows not to draft based on need after the 1984 draft.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, LucastheThird said:

 

There are a lot of people here acting like this dude has a history of locker-room fights and other bad behavior. 

The talk against Ayton seems like he’s similar to Trae where the extremes he’s getting undervalued are too far.  
Portland sent out a lot of salary in the Lillard and Nurkic trade.  I never got the idea they thought of Ayton as much more than a filler salary.  

[JeffS17]

3 hours ago, LucastheThird said:

There are a lot of people here acting like this dude has a history of locker-room fights and other bad behavior

No i just think hes mentally soft and quick to give up on plays/games. Id rather him scrap in the locker room tbh nothing i hate more than guys who cant play for the team when theyre having a bad game

[RedDawg#8]

4 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

Trae Young looking like a bargain right now lmao

[LucastheThird]

16 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

No i just think hes mentally soft and quick to give up on plays/games. Id rather him scrap in the locker room tbh nothing i hate more than guys who cant play for the team when theyre having a bad game

Then he should get some credit for how he played this last year in Portland, or you're being hypocritical. He showed he was not mentally soft and became a leader for that team. 

[JeffS17]

2 hours ago, LucastheThird said:

Then he should get some credit for how he played this last year in Portland, or you're being hypocritical. He showed he was not mentally soft and became a leader for that team. 

I saw the local Portland articles talking about how he was a leader.  Someone in their org doesn't value that at all though, clearly.  If he has transformed into an effective leader, what is the rationale for putting him on the block and drafting Clingan?  If you were a hypothetical fan of Portland, are you upset with your front office for wanting to trade him?

[AHF]

On 8/10/2024 at 5:53 PM, Final_quest said:

Simple, it’s just like our entire starting frontline was overpaid.  Teams didn’t want Collins, nor do they want Hunter or Capela.  Ayton is overpaid, no doubt, and he’s got a couple legitimate yellow flags with his character.  
Perfect players aren’t available, especially if all you give up is Capela and Nance.  But you’re putting words in my mouth again.  I never said GMs have a positive view on his attitude or that I think he has a good attitude.  All I said is he’s been part of a winning team before and I don’t know of any specific report where he’s been an attitude problem in Portland.  
I was actually asking for understanding on how much substance there is to the idea that Ayton is toxic.  
Rebuilding teams flip players all the time.  I think I read that was Utah’s plan with Collins.  But Collins didn’t restore value as Utah hoped.  Ayton being overpaid means teams will want to move him. Though  I’m definitely not an expert on Ayton’s game, or know enough to claim his attitude is fine.  

Teams flipping the #1 pick after 5 years of 18 and 10 type play for pedestrian players is extraordinary.  It isn’t just a matter of being overpaid.  It is wanting to be rid of the player, imo.

Portland I’m more willing to believe was excited about him and has now views him akin to a JC.  They really don’t have much reason to care about his salary so this is a “nope he ain’t it” type of decision to draft over him from my read on it which is admittedly just reading the circumstances around his first year.

[AHF]

23 hours ago, djjob23 said:

Hope these articles help answer the question on DA’s growth/personality after leaving Phoenix and getting a fresh start in Portland! Just goes to show that environment can make all the difference. I see a lot of similarities between DA and Zach Randolph.

https://www.nba.com/blazers/news/season-in-review-deandre-ayton
”However, Ayton’s positive influence in the locker room might have been one of his most important contributions during his first season in Portland. Ayton wanted to prove he had leadership qualities, something he didn’t get to display much on more the more veteran teams he played for in Phoenix, and one needed to only hear him deflect praise from himself and on to his teammates, something he did regularly this season, to understand his benefit in the Trail Blazers’ locker room.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2024/05/deandre-ayton-a-key-to-rip-citys-future-trail-blazers-season-review-look-ahead.html
“Over the final two months, Ayton demonstrated much-needed leadership to go along with his aggressive play on offense.”
”Ayton said that by late last season, he had become comfortable with coaches, the organization, and teammates. That should allow him to be a force at the start of next season.”

https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/4/16/24132115/trail-blazers-deandre-ayton-had-amazing-first-season-in-portland
“My first season here went amazing,” Ayton said via Danny Marang. “I got to truly see who I am as a player. I got a new start a lot of obstacles. I learned a lot about who I am - I learned I’m a leader, and through trials and tribulations I pushed through. How to be a true vet and example to how to approach the game. To keep my professionalism to a point that they can learn from it.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2024/04/trail-blazers-deandre-ayton-and-scoot-henderson-building-chemistry-thats-leading-to-victories.html
The Blazers have been playing without Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle and Malcolm Brogdon. That has left Ayton as the only player in the rotation with extensive NBA experience. It’s also made him the team’s leader, a role he has embraced. Blazers coach Chauncey Billups said he has been impressed by how Ayton has taken upon himself to do the little things that have helped Henderson and others flourish. “DA doesn’t get the credit for being as smart as he is on the floor,” Billups told reporters. “He’s understanding the angle in which he has to set the screens for Scoot as teams try to go under him. I say it all the time with that pick-and-roll, it’s the point guard and the big guy, it’s a two-way relationship. It takes some time to get used to. You can see them starting to develop some chemistry in the coverages that teams play against us and against Scoot, which obviously is totally different than with (Simons). So, it takes some concentration to be honest with you, but I just love to see that chemistry developing between those two guys.” Furthermore, Ayton has taken it upon himself to be the focal point and take the brunt of the pressure while also being encouraging to the younger players. “I always thought and think still that the best players should always deflect the attention because you naturally will get most of it,” Billups said. “And we all know as basketball players we can never do this thing alone. We know what it takes to go out there and play.”

I will believe this when I watch them commit to Ayton and Clingan moving forward.  If this is all true, there is no reason to get rid of him and they should be looking at him as a piece to build around at his still young age.

Actions speak louder than words.  I am assuming they drafted over him and want to dump him.  If they keep him for the long haul because he is so talented and such a leader, then my entire perspective in built on a faulty foundation and caves like a house of cards.  Not going to lie about that.  

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I will believe this when I watch them commit to Ayton and Clingan moving forward.  If this is all true, there is no reason to get rid of him and they should be looking at him as a piece to build around at his still young age.

Actions speak louder than words.  I am assuming they drafted over him and want to dump him.  If they keep him for the long haul because he is so talented and such a leader, then my entire perspective in built on a faulty foundation and caves like a house of cards.  Not going to lie about that.  

That’s a pretty narrow view.  Portland keeps him and sees him as a leader with high character.  They trade him and it means he is a low effort, low character failure.  
Completely ignores the real issue of Portland being a rebuilding team that is below the cap next year if they trade Ayton for expiring contracts.  Moving Ayton to them is like when we moved Collins.  Salary dumps are not only about character and talent.  Ignoring that aspect is what is causing you to sound like you misunderstand the situation by a wide margin.  

[djjob23]

47 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I saw the local Portland articles talking about how he was a leader.  Someone in their org doesn't value that at all though, clearly.  If he has transformed into an effective leader, what is the rationale for putting him on the block and drafting Clingan?  If you were a hypothetical fan of Portland, are you upset with your front office for wanting to trade him?

There may be additional points to your questions, but here’s my perspective (based on what I’ve read from articles and forums):

• “I saw the local Portland articles talking about how he was a leader.  Someone in their org doesn't value that at all though, clearly.  If he has transformed into an effective leader, what is the rationale for putting him on the block and drafting Clingan?” Clingan is younger/cheaper, plays better defense than Ayton (their games are mirror opposites), and fits better with their rebuild. Billups wants to pair Clingan w/ Ayton at PF (team doesn’t want Ayton to go), but FO is likely testing Ayton’s market seeing if they can flip Ayton for more cap flexibility and assets (very similar to JC).  
   
• “If you were a hypothetical fan of Portland, are you upset with your front office for wanting to trade him?” As a hypothetical fan, yes… to a degree. POR FO has been questionable at best since the Lillard fallout and actual fans seem to dislike ownership as they never cared about building a true contender (sound familiar?). POR didn’t start last season in rebuild/tank mode, but was injury riddled and 1 of the few bright lights was the budding dynamic duo of Scoot and Ayton once Scoot improved and the game slowed down for him at the end of the season (fans were excited for the future). However, their FO picking a definitive direction for the rebuild by drafting Clingan and trading for Avdija are welcomed regardless of if it means Ayton is traded.

 

Hope this helps!

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

That’s a pretty narrow view.  Portland keeps him and sees him as a leader with high character.  They trade him and it means he is a low effort, low character failure.  
Completely ignores the real issue of Portland being a rebuilding team that is below the cap next year if they trade Ayton for expiring contracts.  Moving Ayton to them is like when we moved Collins.  Salary dumps are not only about character and talent.  Ignoring that aspect is what is causing you to sound like you misunderstand the situation by a wide margin.  

But why would you not want to keep a good locker room leader and good player that is still young on a rebuilding team?  Feels like that's exactly who you want want to keep around.  And them wanting to dump him a la Collins doesn't do much to change my mind that he is someone we should pursue.  That's just Portland signaling he's bad salary, or in a best case interpretation, worse salary than their other guys who are not world beaters.  This is the second team that wants to move on from him, much like JC, so it's not really a leap to assume there are things these coaching staffs and front offices do not like. 

IMO he's the De'Andre Hunter of centers: great on paper, low impact to winning on the court, big salary.