2024-25 Insider Thread

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

That’s a pretty narrow view.

Did you just proclaim that the mod’s views were narrow?  
 

I’ll miss you FQ! It’s been an honor.  

 

Hey, don’t be a stranger. Make sure and not see me on FakeGM occasionally! 

[Final_quest]

9 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

But why would you not want to keep a good locker room leader and good player that is still young on a rebuilding team?  Feels like that's exactly who you want want to keep around.  And them wanting to dump him a la Collins doesn't do much to change my mind that he is someone we should pursue.  That's just Portland signaling he's bad salary, or in a best case interpretation, worse salary than their other guys who are not world beaters.  This is the second team that wants to move on from him, much like JC, so it's not really a leap to assume there are things these coaching staffs and front offices do not like. 

IMO he's the De'Andre Hunter of centers: great on paper, low impact to winning on the court, big salary.

I don’t know if Ayton is a good locker room leader.  My point was it’s not a binary of keeping him proves Portland has a high view of him vs trading him proves they have a low view of him.  
If this trade goes down, all it means is we see enough potential/value that we’re willing to pay him for two years.  Overpaid guys get passed around because of a contract, I don’t fault Ayton for that.  All he has to be is a notch or two better than Capela.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

That’s a pretty narrow view.  Portland keeps him and sees him as a leader with high character.  They trade him and it means he is a low effort, low character failure.  
Completely ignores the real issue of Portland being a rebuilding team that is below the cap next year if they trade Ayton for expiring contracts.  Moving Ayton to them is like when we moved Collins.  Salary dumps are not only about character and talent.  Ignoring that aspect is what is causing you to sound like you misunderstand the situation by a wide margin.  

No comparison between our trade our JC and them dumping Ayton.  First, we were over the tax line and had to cut salary.  Portland doesn’t.  Second, JC was under contract for like 4 years to come.  Ayton is under contract for two more seasons.  There is zero need for Portland to dump him to get under the tax line.  Who are they going to sign that is a high upside player with leadership qualities?  That is the kind of player they should be trying to acquire not throwing away.

[Final_quest]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

No comparison between our trade our JC and them dumping Ayton.  First, we were over the tax line and had to cut salary.  Portland doesn’t.  Second, JC was under contract for like 4 years to come.  Ayton is under contract for two more seasons.  There is zero need for Portland to dump him to get under the tax line.  Who are they going to sign that is a high upside player with leadership qualities?  That is the kind of player they should be trying to acquire not throwing away.

It’s way more simple than that as a comparison.  They are both overpaid. That’s the only reason Portland needs to trade him. 

[marco102]

Lol..I'm all in for Ayton.  Upgrade the talent on this team and he actually fits the team really well. I'm not really worried about his attitude or low impact as I believe Trae will get him enough touches for him to feel involved.  We will also have OO there as well.  Make it happen Landry. 

I'll add I wouldn't give up any draft picks or anything to make this trade happen. Just match salaries.  Gambling on a player like this can have big payoffs.  The downside is you're playing OO more than Ayton.  To me, I'll take that gamble.  Cause I'm sick of them running this sub .500 team back.  Do whatever to improve on the margins.

[JayBirdHawk]

There are two sides to Ayton;

The one that played on a winning team in the Suns that was asked to do specific things and sulked when he didn't get his touches on offense.

The other is playing for a non winning team in the Blazers where he can get his touches.

 

[AHF]

9 hours ago, Final_quest said:

It’s way more simple than that as a comparison.  They are both overpaid. That’s the only reason Portland needs to trade him. 

They are the perfect team to absorb two years of overpaying him if if he actually good with a good attitude and is a team leader.  You get to reset his salary in two years. The comparison doesn’t work for me.

[Final_quest]

7 hours ago, marco102 said:

Lol..I'm all in for Ayton.  Upgrade the talent on this team and he actually fits the team really well. I'm not really worried about his attitude or low impact as I believe Trae will get him enough touches for him to feel involved.  We will also have OO there as well.  Make it happen Landry. 

I'll add I wouldn't give up any draft picks or anything to make this trade happen. Just match salaries.  Gambling on a player like this can have big payoffs.  The downside is you're playing OO more than Ayton.  To me, I'll take that gamble.  Cause I'm sick of them running this sub .500 team back.  Do whatever to improve on the margins.

I think it’s a low stakes gamble with Ayton.  The narrative that he’s gonna have all our young players at his house playing video games and eating Doritos, I don’t buy.  

The other one is he’s too low energy and low effort to be a winning player.  Phoenix won 64 games where he was their number two scorer and he shot 63% being fed by Chris Paul.  “You can’t win with Ayton.”?  

I get to choose between Ayton and Capela, and people prefer Capela.  Why?  Ayton was going for 24 and 12 after the allstar break.  You sure he’s so toxic we’re better off letting Capela play out his contract?

Ayton’s not a fit for Portland’s timeline relative to his cost.  OKC is the model.  Portland has a bottom 8 team, but is spending as much as playoff teams.  They need to move from the luxury tax line to the salary cap line.  Ayton is not an SGA level player and if Portland can clear his salary they should. 

[Final_quest]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

They are the perfect team to absorb two years of overpaying him if if he actually good with a good attitude and is a team leader.  You get to reset his salary in two years. The comparison doesn’t work for me.

I have a very different view of managing payroll from you.  Rebuilding teams shouldn’t pay and keep guys like Ayton.  They need to shed salary much quicker.

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

I think it’s a low stakes gamble with Ayton.  The narrative that he’s gonna have all our young players at his house playing video games and eating Doritos, I don’t buy.

I can be convinced an Ayton trade is a good move if the cost is very low.  But I think it's not a good long term move and we're better off not moving pieces for him right now.  Either way, what you're describing above is a mischaracterization of the issue with guys like Ayton and their attitude's impact on the locker room.  People become a product of their environment and if you add guys like Ayton to the mix, it has an impact on the locker room.  We can debate what that impact is but imo he's not worth it.

I recommend the entire interview because it's good (linked below) because its good and there's a lot of good insight in here, but the relevant piece is what Jay clipped below in the tweet.

 

On 7/31/2024 at 9:30 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

I have a very different view of managing payroll from you.  Rebuilding teams shouldn’t pay and keep guys like Ayton.  They need to shed salary much quicker.

Only if the guy isn’t worth keeping around.  26 year old elite talent with a great attitude and who is a team leader is not a dump player to me but reasonable minds can differ.  Part of my thought is there is very little Portland is going to do with that salary over the next two years.  Maybe take on some bad salaries in exchange for a pick.  No one is going to sign with them except for premium salary because they are obviously going to suck.

[Final_quest]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

Only if the guy isn’t worth keeping around.  26 year old elite talent with a great attitude and who is a team leader is not a dump player to me but reasonable minds can differ.  Part of my thought is there is very little Portland is going to do with that salary over the next two years.  Maybe take on some bad salaries in exchange for a pick.  No one is going to sign with them except for premium salary because they are obviously going to suck.

Again that puts Ayton in a binary of either being an elite talent with a great attitude or a low effort and lazy malcontent.  He’s not either one.

On the payroll side, very little Portland can do by freeing up Ayton’s salary I think is just incorrect.  There are good reasons why rebuilding teams keep away from flirting with the luxury tax line.  If you don’t value payroll capacity and flexibility, I think that is a blind spot.

[Final_quest]

45 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I can be convinced an Ayton trade is a good move if the cost is very low.  But I think it's not a good long term move and we're better off not moving pieces for him right now.  Either way, what you're describing above is a mischaracterization of the issue with guys like Ayton and their attitude's impact on the locker room.  People become a product of their environment and if you add guys like Ayton to the mix, it has an impact on the locker room.  We can debate what that impact is but imo he's not worth it.

I recommend the entire interview because it's good (linked below) because its good and there's a lot of good insight in here, but the relevant piece is what Jay clipped below in the tweet.

 

 

I understand this point much better.  The question of Ayton not having the character or mettle to be worth our time is valid consideration.  That’s a case I will listen to, but simply Portland wanting to trade him isn’t enough to make that case.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Final_quest said:

Again that puts Ayton in a binary of either being an elite talent with a great attitude or a low effort and lazy malcontent.  He’s not either one.

On the payroll side, very little Portland can do by freeing up Ayton’s salary I think is just incorrect.  There are good reasons why rebuilding teams keep away from flirting with the luxury tax line.  If you don’t value payroll capacity and flexibility, I think that is a blind spot.

They aren’t flirting with the tax line.  This saves them nothing this year. It frees up nothing this year.  The only benefit from a team building perspective is next year.  So what will they do with the salary dropping off that makes giving up on him worthwhile?
 

They are giving away the upside of Ayton to get salary relief one year earlier.  That tells me they think the upside is either very limited or very low probability.

If a team like the Blazers think his salary is so toxic that they are willing to give him away, that tells me we should stay far away given that we are in a much more challenging position that demands we be much more careful about how we use our dollars.  Portland has a lot more flexibility than we do and no ambitions to compete in the near term.  They should be setting themselves up to win 3 or 4 years down the road when Ayton would be in his absolute prime.  Whatever they would do with that one year of salary relief in their minds has to be worth more than his upside.  They don’t believe in him.

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I understand this point much better.  The question of Ayton not having the character or mettle to be worth our time is valid consideration.  That’s a case I will listen to, but simply Portland wanting to trade him isn’t enough to make that case.

I feel like we are going in circles.  From an on-the-court perspective, why do you think they want to trade him other than his character or mettle?  He looks like Tarzan.  He has the tools.  It is why he puts up numbers and was the #1 pick over Luka, Trae, etc.  It is all about whether they believe in his competitiveness and maturity to me.

If he has the fire to be a warrior and the character you want, we should run not walk to get him and the Suns were fools for letting him go for filler.  The fact that Portland drafted over him just one season after trading for him and seems likely to let him go for filler (if they can find a trade partner) is something I can’t ignore as far as what it says about their assessment on his competitiveness.

[Packfill]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I have a very different view of managing payroll from you.  Rebuilding teams shouldn’t pay and keep guys like Ayton.  They need to shed salary much quicker.

I would argue that rebuilding teams should use their cap space, if available, to acquire assets. 

To me, Portland obviously does not view Ayton as part of their core going forward likely due to a combination of skill, cost and timeline.  They are also obviously motivated to move him not just for salary relief but for draft picks and young assets that fit within their rebuild.  If they think an expiring CC is a more valuable trade asset at the deadline and can net them more value then I could see them moving Ayton in that type of trade.   

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, Packfill said:

I would argue that rebuilding teams should use their cap space, if available, to acquire assets. 

To me, Portland obviously does not view Ayton as part of their core going forward likely due to a combination of skill, cost and timeline.  They are also obviously motivated to move him not just for salary relief but for draft picks and young assets that fit within their rebuild.  If they think an expiring CC is a more valuable trade asset at the deadline and can net them more value then I could see them moving Ayton in that type of trade.   

They aren’t even close to the cap line, and moving Ayton’s two year deal for Capela’s one year deal is a huge step towards getting there at the end of this season.  

But yes cap space is a powerful asset for rebuilding teams to use.  That’s actually why they might be motivated to move Ayton.  Shedding him makes generating cap space possible.  Keeping him makes it virtually impossible.  

Capela and Nance are also much easier to flip into a tangible asset by the trade deadline.  There is a lot of appeal for Portland in moving Ayton.  That’s why being dogmatic in saying they only move him because he’s an abject failure and locker room cancer is a “pretty narrow view”.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I feel like we are going in circles.  From an on-the-court perspective, why do you think they want to trade him other than his character or mettle?  

Teams don’t always make moves to improve immediately on the court, especially rebuilding teams.  Moving Ayton for Portland clears the way for younger players to develop.  

Ayton is the kind of contract where you are paying a premium for his production.  Portland has no need to pay a high premium for talent.  Young and cheap talent should be their focus.

You see shedding him only as a severe condemnation on his talent and attitude.  It’s more multi-layered than that.  

[Wretch]

Just now, Final_quest said:

Teams don’t always make moves to improve immediately on the court, especially rebuilding teams.  Moving Ayton for Portland clears the way for younger players to develop. 

This is a good point.  He had a complete falling out in Phoenix and I've read some fan perspectives on it.  They're not all of the opinion that Ayton alone was the problem.  I'm not making excuses for whatever mental struggles he's having, but certainly being dumped from a playoff contender back to square one didn't help.

I think here, there would be no questions about his touches or his role.  Trae and JJ would feed him literally as much as he could handle...and then some.

[AHF]

26 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Teams don’t always make moves to improve immediately on the court, especially rebuilding teams.  Moving Ayton for Portland clears the way for younger players to develop.  

Ayton is the kind of contract where you are paying a premium for his production.  Portland has no need to pay a high premium for talent.  Young and cheap talent should be their focus.

You see shedding him only as a severe condemnation on his talent and attitude.  It’s more multi-layered than that.  

Before they drafted over him there was no one on the roster to clear room for.  He was a 25 year old young player who had no competition for minutes last year since the only other young talent on the roster was the perpetually injured Robert Williams who is a full year older than Ayton anyway. 

They never would have acquired him if they didn't want to develop him so one year ago I think we can agree that in the eyes of Joe Cronin he was a young player they were excited to add to the team and build around knowing his salary.  Not anymore.  Same player, same GM.  His production in Portland was very similar to his production in Phoenix and clearly his salary was known when they dealt for him.  So why the sudden change in direction? 

I think they got a full season look at him and decided they had seen enough to know they didn't believe in him.  Probably felt like they now understood why Phoenix dumped him for filler.  Why else would they have traded for him in the first place unless they saw him as someone they thought had a future in Portland?  The cap implications from him being on the roster were not something that came as a surprise to the team 12 months later and unlike JC there is no need to make a move immediately since they are not a tax paying team and they do not have any big moves that are pending on him being moved.  

Clearly the return on any trade will shape the story here so I guess I'm kind of waiting on that at this point.  If they get back big value for him, I have misjudged his market and he enhanced his value over when the Suns dealt him.  If they trade him for matching non-expiring salary, then this will not have much if anything to do with clearing their books or managing the cap since at best the matching salary coming back will expire at the same time as  his contract but may also extend out farther beyond his.  If they keep him and build around him for the long-term, then the rumors are wrong and as is both my reading on things and yours.  Etc.  Time will tell.