2024-25 Insider Thread

[AHF]

15 hours ago, Final_quest said:

They gave up a mid player for him by NBA standards.  Ayton’s not good enough to keep paying a high price for and pencil in as your starting center for the next 5-10 years.  

Similar downsides if we trade for him to be honest.  If he plays well, he won’t want a pay cut.  

I'm not sure there is any less talented package they could have given up while balancing salaries.  Like Capela is a mid player but we would absolutely give him up in any package for Ayton because we need to match salary and not have 100 centers on the roster.  Capela and Nurkic were necessarily part of the least valuable packages you could come up with when you are getting a high minute center in return. 

As a result of this, you are right that Portland is not heavily invested in Ayton.  But we were similarly not heavily invested in Kyle Korver when we acquired him.  Just because you gave up very little doesn't mean you shouldn't want to retain that talent.  You only trade for the player if you think he has value that makes having him worthwhile, and you only turn around and dump someone if you think they aren't worth keeping.

[djjob23]

17 hours ago, AHF said:

I would be shocked if we gave away a first round pick that was only lottery protected in a deal for Ayton.  You should expect me to be critical of Fields if that happens.

Agreed!

On 8/9/2024 at 11:51 AM, djjob23 said:

Value wise to me… Nurkic (top 20 C with 3 yrs left on contract), Keon Johnson (21st pick in 2021 and 21yo), Nassir Little (25th pick in 2019 and 23yo) = CC (top 15 expiring C), Nance (solid expiring backup C), and a lottery protected 1st. If ATL had a competent FO that could negotiate, then it’d be fair value to trade CC, Nance and the 2027 1st (via NOP/MIL) for DA. However (based on ATL’s FO history), I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the LAL 1st. Regardless, although the LAL 1st is too much of an overpay for DA, a normal overpay is expected to get a deal done. It’s also important to factor in DA’s growth and his current market value when comparing his trade value from last offseason. It shouldn’t be much different, but just something to consider when comparing.

____________

1 hour ago, AHF said:

…

As a result of this, you are right that Portland is not heavily invested in Ayton.  But we were similarly not heavily invested in Kyle Korver when we acquired him.  Just because you gave up very little doesn't mean you shouldn't want to retain that talent.  You only trade for the player if you think he has value that makes having him worthwhile, and you only turn around and dump someone if you think they aren't worth keeping.

This is true in its simplest form. It’s important to note that each org has different motives (based on their goals) and perspectives on what their goals are, which make it more complex.

For example, if an org sees more value in a player than the other org is selling them for and they believe they can get more for said player, then they will plan to buy and flip said player (like selling Goodwill items for twice the price on Amazon). If the org that bought is in win-now mode, they would value said player’s current and future on-court performance and would only flip him if it benefitted/improved the team’s winning goals. If the org that bought is in rebuild mode, they would value the said player’s past and current performance and would only flip him if it benefitted/improved their rebuild goals.

An orgs mode can change based on performance, environment, and most importantly… money.

Edited August 13 by djjob23

[AHF]

2 hours ago, djjob23 said:

Agreed!

____________

This is true in its simplest form. It’s important to note that each org has different motives (based on their goals) and perspectives on what their goals are, which make it more complex.

For example, if an org sees more value in a player than the other org is selling them for and they believe they can get more for said player, then they will plan to buy and flip said player (like selling Goodwill items for twice the price on Amazon). If the org that bought is in win-now mode, they would value said player’s current and future on-court performance and would only flip him if it benefitted/improved the team’s winning goals. If the org that bought is in rebuild mode, they would value the said player’s past and current performance and would only flip him if it benefitted/improved their rebuild goals.

An orgs mode can change based on performance, environment, and most importantly… money.

 

Portland was in rebuild mode when they traded for him.  They are in rebuild mode now.  Portland's O/U in the pre-season last year was 20 some wins.  It will be 20 some wins again this year.  Not much has changed.  Doesn't really matter if it is 23 or 26 or whatever.  It appears they have decided he is no longer worth keeping around.  I don't think that is because of a dramatic change in the team's winning goals.  They are basically looking to fill some seats and get lucky in the lottery both years.  They hope to land a star and have their 20-something players emerge as pieces around them.  Shape, Scoot, Clingan, etc.  No reason Ayton couldn't be among that group based on age so it is other factors that have led them to reverse their position from buyers to sellers on him.

Call me skeptical that Ayton is in so much more demand this offseason than he was last year to your idea buying and flipping him.  If the goal was to flip him all along, I don't think they did a ton to convince other teams to buy in.  We'll see if and when they move him how big the return is.

[djjob23]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

 

Portland was in rebuild mode when they traded for him.  They are in rebuild mode now.  Portland's O/U in the pre-season last year was 20 some wins.  It will be 20 some wins again this year.  Not much has changed.  Doesn't really matter if it is 23 or 26 or whatever.  It appears they have decided he is no longer worth keeping around.  I don't think that is because of a dramatic change in the team's winning goals.  They are basically looking to fill some seats and get lucky in the lottery both years.  They hope to land a star and have their 20-something players emerge as pieces around them.  Shape, Scoot, Clingan, etc.  No reason Ayton couldn't be among that group based on age so it is other factors that have led them to reverse their position from buyers to sellers on him.

Call me skeptical that Ayton is in so much more demand this offseason than he was last year to your idea buying and flipping him.  If the goal was to flip him all along, I don't think they did a ton to convince other teams to buy in.  We'll see if and when they move him how big the return is.

Absolutely! I don’t think anybody here is saying POR is been focusing on winning (they’re in rebuild mode), but ATL is/should be focused on winning. To that point, DA(25yo) is a productive player that has become more available after drafting Clingan who has an ideal skillset (defensive anchor) that fits better with their core. This gives POR the opportunity to test DA’s market with teams looking to win (who value productive players more) and trade for pieces (picks, young players with potential, expirings with benefits like vet leadership or picks attached) that can help them build around their core (Scoot(19), Sharpe(20), Clingan(20), and possibly Avdija(23)).

I think POR plan trading for DA was 2-fold where they could: (A) test if he fits their core; and/or (B) flip him to get better pieces that fit with their rebuild. Their plan to up his trade value failed when their season got COMPLETELY injury riddled. Additionally, if Scoot came out the gate the way he ended the season, DA would’ve had a more impressive season with an improved trade value, but this didn’t happen. With Clingan falling to them in the draft, it has given POR more options to either: (A) try playing him next to Clingan at the 4; (B) trade him for young players with potential that naturally play needed positions; or (C) trade him for picks/expirings that provide future assets for their rebuild.

At the end of the day, I think DA just wants to win and provide leadership. He has never been on a team that has allowed him to have both of these traits. If ATL can give these to him, then I think there’s an increased chance DA has full buy in with our system and provides us with the perfect fit.

Edited August 13 by djjob23

[AHF]

I don't know that he wasn't "allowed" to provide leadership in Phoenix.  There seems to be reems of maturity issue scenarios where he was doing the opposite of providing leaderhship there but I don't think that was the team's fault.  Like when you stand there and just watch as Jokic plays ping pong with the ball against the rim and backboard that isn't not being allowed to give hard effort.  When he got chewed out for not doing the right things by Booker and others I don't think that was not being allowed to lead by example so much as simply failing to do so.  Whether he was 'allowed' or not, I think things would have gone better there had he had a more team focused and mature approach to competing and that has to be part and parcel of being a leader anywhere.  Anyone can be a leader by example even if it takes time to earn a leadership position on a team with more established stars.  I don't think there was much of that at all in Phoenix and that isn't really on anyone but Ayton.  That isn't to completely condemn him give his young age but I don't see that as being a product of a glass ceiling that the Suns limited who he could be.

[djjob23]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

I don't know that he wasn't "allowed" to provide leadership in Phoenix.  There seems to be reems of maturity issue scenarios where he was doing the opposite of providing leaderhship there but I don't think that was the team's fault.  Like when you stand there and just watch as Jokic plays ping pong with the ball against the rim and backboard that isn't not being allowed to give hard effort.  When he got chewed out for not doing the right things by Booker and others I don't think that was not being allowed to lead by example so much as simply failing to do so.  Whether he was 'allowed' or not, I think things would have gone better there had he had a more team focused and mature approach to competing and that has to be part and parcel of being a leader anywhere.  Anyone can be a leader by example even if it takes time to earn a leadership position on a team with more established stars.  I don't think there was much of that at all in Phoenix and that isn't really on anyone but Ayton.  That isn't to completely condemn him give his young age but I don't see that as being a product of a glass ceiling that the Suns limited who he could be.

I don’t know either, but the articles with Ayton in POR give us the best insight as he compares the environments between there and PHX. I don’t think DA ever had a chance at a leadership role with large diva energies like CP3, Booker, and Durant on the rosters (Monty limiting his role didn’t help either). DA’s issues in PHX can’t be summed up in a post (it’s more of a masterclass that should be studied), but DA needed freedom to fail, learn, and grow and that just wasn’t possible under PHX’s winning-first goals. POR was a much better fit for DA as he got to grow and be in a vet leadership role with a younger, developing roster. If ATL is a spot where he can have the best of both worlds ((1) a win-now team with Trae who’s the best at spamming C; and (2) he can be in a vet leadership role with our young roster) then ATL would likely get the best version of DA, which would fit very well with their core and direction.  

Edited August 13 by djjob23

[JTB]

3 hours ago, djjob23 said:

I don’t know either, but the articles with Ayton in POR give us the best insight as he compares the environments between there and PHX. I don’t think DA ever had a chance at a leadership role with large diva energies like CP3, Booker, and Durant on the rosters (Monty limiting his role didn’t help either). DA’s issues in PHX can’t be summed up in a post (it’s more of a masterclass that should be studied), but DA needed freedom to fail, learn, and grow and that just wasn’t possible under PHX’s winning-first goals. POR was a much better fit for DA as he got to grow and be in a vet leadership role with a younger, developing roster. If ATL is a spot where he can have the best of both worlds ((1) a win-now team with Trae who’s the best at spamming C; and (2) he can be in a vet leadership role with our young roster) then ATL would likely get the best version of DA, which would fit very well with their core and direction.  

[Sothron]

Our position from what I've been told is we are going to be "very comfortable" with this roster with an eye on moving Capela/Hunter before the deadline if a deal they like is finally offered for either of them.

My take: we still need a veteran backup PG. I don't trust Kobe to stay healthy for 82 games and I don't think a 2 way player is the answer. I absolutely hate we have to carry a non NBA level player on our roster because the FO wouldn't play harder ball with the Pelicans to refuse the corpse of a Zeller. 

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, Sothron said:

Our position from what I've been told is we are going to be "very comfortable" with this roster with an eye on moving Capela/Hunter before the deadline if a deal they like is finally offered for either of them.

My take: we still need a veteran backup PG. I don't trust Kobe to stay healthy for 82 games and I don't think a 2 way player is the answer. I absolutely hate we have to carry a non NBA level player on our roster because the FO wouldn't play harder ball with the Pelicans to refuse the corpse of a Zeller. 

Biggest shock of the offseason is bringing back Capela.  He’s not as bad as his reputation around here, but can’t believe they haven’t resolved committing to Okongwu.  

Third string PG is a weakness, but wonder if they think of Dyson as an option for that role.  Will also be interesting to see how they manage backup PF and rotations in general.  

[AHF]

12 hours ago, djjob23 said:

I don’t know either, but the articles with Ayton in POR give us the best insight as he compares the environments between there and PHX. I don’t think DA ever had a chance at a leadership role with large diva energies like CP3, Booker, and Durant on the rosters (Monty limiting his role didn’t help either). DA’s issues in PHX can’t be summed up in a post (it’s more of a masterclass that should be studied), but DA needed freedom to fail, learn, and grow and that just wasn’t possible under PHX’s winning-first goals. POR was a much better fit for DA as he got to grow and be in a vet leadership role with a younger, developing roster. If ATL is a spot where he can have the best of both worlds ((1) a win-now team with Trae who’s the best at spamming C; and (2) he can be in a vet leadership role with our young roster) then ATL would likely get the best version of DA, which would fit very well with their core and direction.  

This is the definitely the best case hope for everything DA past and present.  I don’t think we will trade for him but if we do I hope you are right (even though I think this is not accurate and that he is to blame for most of his failures career to date).

[JTB]

I didn’t want to bring the Ayton conversation into another thread so I’ll keep it here but in the “Trae Young - The Man, The Viper, …” thread @JayBirdHawk posted a new interview Trae did on “Podcast P”….and one thing that stood out to me was PG suggesting that Trae needs a bucket getter at center. Capela is cool and all but Trae need a center who can really get at it offensively. We all know Trae spams the center position but when you hear another all star player who’s known for good defense like Paul George mentions how Traes pick n roll with the center is unstoppable even when you know it’s coming ….that speaks volumes! 
 

It’s not really that hard to understand….Trae needs a scoring center. Ayton is the best available…Trae makes players around him better offensively but especially centers.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, JTB said:

I didn’t want to bring the Ayton conversation into another thread so I’ll keep it here but in the “Trae Young - The Man, The Viper, …” thread @JayBirdHawk posted a new interview Trae did on “Podcast P”….and one thing that stood out to me was PG suggesting that Trae needs a bucket getter at center. Capela is cool and all but Trae need a center who can really get at it offensively. We all know Trae spams the center position but when you hear another all star player who’s known for good defense like Paul George mentions how Traes pick n roll with the center is unstoppable even when you know it’s coming ….that speaks volumes! 
 

It’s not really that hard to understand….Trae needs a scoring center. Ayton is the best available…Trae makes players around him better offensively but especially centers.

I think it's more the VERSATILITY of the center that matters. It opens up room for the other players. Trae talked about how he played with Dedmon and Len..picking and popping etc.

[JayBirdHawk]

8 hours ago, Sothron said:

Our position from what I've been told is we are going to be "very comfortable" with this roster with an eye on moving Capela/Hunter before the deadline if a deal they like is finally offered for either of them.

 

Mid August - perfect timing.  Just like last offseason. "We are comfortable going into the season as is"

[JayBirdHawk]

8 hours ago, Sothron said:

My take: we still need a veteran backup PG. I don't trust Kobe to stay healthy for 82 games and I don't think a 2 way player is the answer. I absolutely hate we have to carry a non NBA level player on our roster because the FO wouldn't play harder ball with the Pelicans to refuse the corpse of a Zeller.

.

That Zeller deal still really annoys me.

Have any of your sources talked about it?

 

[Sothron]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

.

That Zeller deal still really annoys me.

Have any of your sources talked about it?

 

only thing I can remember is Wizards wouldn't work a three way deal because Travis refused.

[macdaddy]

10 minutes ago, Sothron said:

only thing I can remember is Wizards wouldn't work a three way deal because Travis refused.

Hawking

[hawkman]

44 minutes ago, Sothron said:

only thing I can remember is Wizards wouldn't work a three way deal because Travis refused.

I can't really blame him. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Sothron said:

only thing I can remember is Wizards wouldn't work a three way deal because Travis refused.

The other three things are:

(1) NO was doing them a favor by letting them have Jonas on a S&T so there was some leverage there for NO to get WAS to do something;

(2) NO was comfortable telling Atlanta to shove it without feeling a need to enhance the deal for us when we agreed to take Zeller to help them; and

(3) since NO didn't feel pressure from us to force WAS to combine the deals we ended up getting **** on by Schlenk and got nothing for helping NO.

Not a great example of making deals work for everyone but if you are willing to roll over and take it then you end up with the short end of the stick so can't say it is that surprising.

[Gray Mule]

Cody Zeller is an Atlanta Hawk.  A 6'11" center who is 31 years old.  His $2 mil. salary is one of our cheapest.  It seems to be the belief of all of us who post on the Squawk that he is completely useless.  The deal wasn't going to happen if we didn't take him.  I must wonder how he feels about all this.  After all, somewhere in his past he was good enough to be awarded with an NBA contract.

What if he's not as terrible as we believe?  I hope we play him enough in pre-season so we can actually see what we have.

The deal happened.  He's a Hawk.  Cody Zeller, enjoy your time here!

[RedDawg#8]

I have long let go of the Zeller thing. Mainly because I can actually picture Nance as a PF which helps balance our roster. For those who only see him as a Center then the Zeller thing looks even crazier.

He is an emergency big. Whatever at this point.