2024-25 Insider Thread

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Top 8?? There’s a better chance we give up a top 4 pick… 5-8 seems very unlikely unless trae and jj both get injured for most of the season 

Why is top 4 more likely?

[JeffS17]

19 minutes ago, AHF said:

Why is top 4 more likely?

For us to be 5-8 we’d have to be the 5-8th worst team (and this assumes no one jumps up in the lottery in-which we’d need to be even worse, like 4-7 worst team range), but i can at least fathom another lucky lotto ball situation after we finish as 9-12th seed to land top 4 in the draft.

So 1-4 is luck (for the Spurs, really) and 5-8 suggests we’ll be just as bad as teams tanking, in a season where we’ll be trying to win every game.  Teams like the Hornets and Pistons and Nets will actively be trying to lose to us.

[djjob23]

54 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

For us to be 5-8 we’d have to be the 5-8th worst team (and this assumes no one jumps up in the lottery in-which we’d need to be even worse, like 4-7 worst team range), but i can at least fathom another lucky lotto ball situation after we finish as 9-12th seed to land top 4 in the draft.

So 1-4 is luck (for the Spurs, really) and 5-8 suggests we’ll be just as bad as teams tanking, in a season where we’ll be trying to win every game.  Teams like the Hornets and Pistons and Nets will actively be trying to lose to us.

I agree with this! To clarify on my previous post, I see ATL’s worst case scenario (not including Trae or JJ injuries which would be worse) as being the 8th worst record in the league should the unknowns not meet expectations, giving SAS the 8th best opportunity at getting a top 4 pick via lottery. I don’t expect ATL to give SAS a 5-7 pick… 8-9 or 1-4 is much more likely after the lottery should we have the 8th worst record.

Edited September 9 by djjob23

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

For us to be 5-8 we’d have to be the 5-8th worst team (and this assumes no one jumps up in the lottery in-which we’d need to be even worse, like 4-7 worst team range), but i can at least fathom another lucky lotto ball situation after we finish as 9-12th seed to land top 4 in the draft.

So 1-4 is luck (for the Spurs, really) and 5-8 suggests we’ll be just as bad as teams tanking, in a season where we’ll be trying to win every game.  Teams like the Hornets and Pistons and Nets will actively be trying to lose to us.

Thanks.  I guess I see the odds of us getting a top 4 pick as being incredibly low so would not consider that viable or worth spending time on but I can understand the logic as far as a lucky low probability outcome like last season.  I am setting our worst case scenario as a repeat of last year.  In the absence of a near full season injury of Trae and/or JJ it would be a remarkable failure not to at least match last season’s outcome given just how badly matched Trae and DM were.

[JeffS17]

24 minutes ago, AHF said:

Thanks.  I guess I see the odds of us getting a top 4 pick as being incredibly low so would not consider that viable or worth spending time on but I can understand the logic as far as a lucky low probability outcome like last season.  I am setting our worst case scenario as a repeat of last year.  In the absence of a near full season injury of Trae and/or JJ it would be a remarkable failure not to at least match last season’s outcome given just how badly matched Trae and DM were.

Yeah, same here.  We should be better and none of the teams below us in the East are really getting better. And I give us a decent chance of leaping Miami, Chicago, and maybe another team (ORL/IND/CLE) based on how well we gel.

[Gray Mule]

DON'T FORGET:

Next summer's draft Finds the Hawks draft pick going to someone else.  Our 1st round draft pick is from the Spurs.  Wherever they end up in the draft will be where we draft, not where the Hawks end up.

I don't believe this applies to the 2nd round.  Do we even have one or did we trade it already?

[JeffS17]

22 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

DON'T FORGET:

Next summer's draft Finds the Hawks draft pick going to someone else.  Our 1st round draft pick is from the Spurs.  Wherever they end up in the draft will be where we draft, not where the Hawks end up.

I don't believe this applies to the 2nd round.  Do we even have one or did we trade it already?

We have two firsts in the next draft-- one from the Lakers and likely one from the Kings (if it lands 13+).  The Spurs will take our pick

[AtLaS]

14 hours ago, AHF said:

Thanks.  I guess I see the odds of us getting a top 4 pick as being incredibly low so would not consider that viable or worth spending time on but I can understand the logic as far as a lucky low probability outcome like last season.  I am setting our worst case scenario as a repeat of last year.  In the absence of a near full season injury of Trae and/or JJ it would be a remarkable failure not to at least match last season’s outcome given just how badly matched Trae and DM were.

We should be able to handle a JJ injury better than last year, but if Trae gets hurt this year we are screwed.  That means Bufkin (not a true PG and unproven) is the starter and Wallace is the backup.  I'm not convinced that DD or Bogi can play PG for any period over maybe few minutes.  Having Murray really helped us when Trae got hurt.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, AtLaS said:

We should be able to handle a JJ injury better than last year, but if Trae gets hurt this year we are screwed.  That means Bufkin (not a true PG and unproven) is the starter and Wallace is the backup.  I'm not convinced that DD or Bogi can play PG for any period over maybe few minutes.  Having Murray really helped us when Trae got hurt.

If I have to bank on health from one of our young vets, I'd rather it be Trae than JJ and Hunter last year.  I do think PG and PF are our most shallow positions now so fingers crossed for both Trae and JJ.  Our wing depth is a ton better and our center depth is overflowing even if the quality isn't anywhere near elite.

[ABH]

5 hours ago, AtLaS said:

We should be able to handle a JJ injury better than last year, but if Trae gets hurt this year we are screwed.  That means Bufkin (not a true PG and unproven) is the starter and Wallace is the backup.  I'm not convinced that DD or Bogi can play PG for any period over maybe few minutes.  Having Murray really helped us when Trae got hurt.

Yeah need to trade a center and get a vet PG

Edited September 9 by ABH

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

[Sothron]

So heard back, will share here:

I was told Jalen's team is wanting 150 million for an extension. The Hawks were wanting it in the 125 million range but it sounds like they might have to go for the 150 million in order to keep him here long term. 

 

[AHF]

4 hours ago, Sothron said:

So heard back, will share here:

I was told Jalen's team is wanting 150 million for an extension. The Hawks were wanting it in the 125 million range but it sounds like they might have to go for the 150 million in order to keep him here long term. 

 

This is the perfect RFA situation.  The only way he should get $150M is if another team is willing to do it.  His injury history would make it very unlikely he takes the QO over a $125M deal.  Push hasn’t come to shove yet and because the Hawks have more FA flexibility before he is signed they shouldn’t be in a rush even if ok paying through the nose.  Now is the time to sign him to a bargain deal or let it ride.

[JayBirdHawk]

5 hours ago, Sothron said:

So heard back, will share here:

I was told Jalen's team is wanting 150 million for an extension. The Hawks were wanting it in the 125 million range but it sounds like they might have to go for the 150 million in order to keep him here long term. 

 

4 or 5 year deal? I'm guessing it's a 5 year deal.

[JayBirdHawk]

For reference a regular rookie max contract is 5yrs $224 million ($269 designated rookie extension).

[JeffS17]

12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

4 or 5 year deal? I'm guessing it's a 5 year deal.

150/5 isnt bad and id be fine with, but we should try to push that down if we’re extending him early.  At least make him prove he can go a year with an ankle sprain— JJ needs new shoes or an ankle brace or something 

[AHF]

48 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

150/5 isnt bad and id be fine with, but we should try to push that down if we’re extending him early.  At least make him prove he can go a year with an ankle sprain— JJ needs new shoes or an ankle brace or something 

Fully agree.  If he has a breakout superstar season so be it.  That isn't a bad outcome.  If he misses 45 games or something, his price should drop considerably from $150M.  

Next offseason we have a lot of expiring salary (Clint and Nance stand out) and if we were going to make a big move that seems like a potential window.  Jalen not resigning until then gives us more flexibility to do something by using the smaller cap figure on the books until he resigns.  

Bargain deal or revisit next summer.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

[Sothron]

I heard it was for 5 years. 

The team knows it holds the cards here. Look at the deal Vit got. That is, hands down, the worst contract I've ever seen for a young rotation player but Vit took it because it was the best deal he was going to take. They played hardball with him and it worked. I expect the same with Jalen simply due to concerns over Jalen's injury history and his need to prove himself for a second season.

 

[JeffS17]

27 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I heard it was for 5 years. 

The team knows it holds the cards here. Look at the deal Vit got. That is, hands down, the worst contract I've ever seen for a young rotation player but Vit took it because it was the best deal he was going to take. They played hardball with him and it worked. I expect the same with Jalen simply due to concerns over Jalen's injury history and his need to prove himself for a second season.

 

Playing hard ball like that shifts the culture over time, too, once a lot of guys in the locker room have had to prove themselves before getting paid.  It's one of the things I respect about Miami's FO.  The big question for me is how much hard ball are we going to be playing when it comes time for Trae's extension.