2024-25 Insider Thread

[Sothron]

My personal take: I love Bogi but this is the all time best sell high for him coming off his great last season and showing at the Olympics. This is the best time to move him for either an upgrade at center or future draft picks.

This is how I feel regardless of a possible MPJ trade. 

[terrell]

1 hour ago, RedDawg#8 said:

I think trades are always a risk. If you can add someone that you KNOW has chemistry with your best player, on and off the court, you should give it look if it makes sense roster wise. 

Murray was a PG that did not fit next to another PG. MPJ is a 6-10 Forward thats a sniper and fits what we are looking for from a size and length aspect. He fits us in a way Murray never could. 

Hed fit right in the Hawkspital also....

Back problems never go away............................

It's only a matter of time imo....

And isn't he on  Max deal?

Edited 15 hours ago by terrell

[terrell]

44 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Replacing Hunter in the starting lineup with a high volume knock-down 40%+ threat from three that rebounds well would make us significantly better.  It would hurt not having Bogi off the bench, but thankfully Risacher is here for that 6th man impact.  Not to mention Vit is looking very serviceable right now and some other developing guys.  No championship team wins because they have $70M of salary coming off the bench, which is what we're staring at this season.  And it'll be $80M when Risacher takes Hunters starting spot.  The timing might not be right now, but we will absolutely have to make a consolidation trade at some point if we want to make the finals, and potentially win it.

So the #1 pick is our future 6th man bench player?

We gonna do this again with a top 6 pick?(OO)

 

 

Edited 15 hours ago by terrell

[Wretch]

7 minutes ago, Hawkish said:

I have no issue with having depth.  I’m wondering if the resources could be better used in other areas of weakness.

Disclaimer: I don't necessarily disagree.  I also want to be clear that I'm not simply advocating for MPJ in saying this...

So in general, this is the sort of "nesting" that we have historically done - IE trying to fill holes and/or build the perfect landing spot.  Say we move DH for a backup C, keep Bogi, and draft a serviceable player 3 years from now.  We're a middle of the pack team with a competitive 2nd round PEAK.

I worry less about how we replace a player we don't want, adding depth behind two bigs with no offensive impact outside of 5ft, and finding a backup PG.  These are things I would be concerned about as a contender.  We're not close to that.  As a team trying to build something to contend with, I am more concerned with finding impact compliments and filling in the blanks afterwards.

Again, I like MPJ...but my opinion is irrespective of this particular conversation. (I'm also of the opinion of selling high, but that's another conversation).

[Wretch]

5 minutes ago, terrell said:

So the #1 pick is our future 6th man bench player?

We gonna do this again with a top 6 pick?(OO)

 

We didn't bench OO.  He never played into the starting role.  If he had, he would have been starting a long time ago.

I think Risacher can ride the bench for a few years at least.  He's been fine in preseason doing just that. You're 100% right though that we didn't draft him #1 overall to be a career sub.  It's just that if we can get an impact player (even if it's not MPJ), I worry less about fit.  Figure the fit out later.

[AHF]

My issues with the trade proposal:

1. Why would we be giving up a first round pick in this deal?  Granted it is the double protected pick so it isn't an especially valuable first round pick but we don't need to add any pick to these players.
2. MPJ just isn't that great.  I like his shooting and his rebounding would be an obvious improvement over Hunter.  But at the end of the day he averaged 16.7 points a game and 19.0 points per 36 last season.  Bogi averaged 16.9 PPG / 20.0 PP36 and Hunter averaged 15.6 PPG / 19.1 PP36.  You'll notice that both Bogi and Hunter averaged more points per minute.  Being outscored by Hunter on a per minute basis is not the mark of a great scorer.  His all-in metrics aren't very good either.  15.5 PER  .115 WS/48   0.1 BPM   1.3 VORP.  Those are comparable to Bogi despite a contract for double the price. 
3. As noted right above, MPJ is very expensive.  $36M / $38M / $41M for the rest of his contract.  He is overpaid.
4. We give up two useful rotation players with injury risk to get one back with probably the scariest medical history of the bunch.  Back problems are potential career enders.  I'm reluctant after last season to see us give up on having good depth this quickly.

Things that interest me about a reworked version of this trade:

1. Hunter is also overpaid with unimpressive metrics so getting a better player back in a Hunter trade could be good even if that player is also overpaid.
2. The fit is nice with elite floor spreading and strong rebounding at the 3.
3. MPJ and Trae being thrilled to play together is a nice thing.

But as described, we are giving up too much.  

 

[terrell]

24 minutes ago, Wretch said:

We didn't bench OO.  He never played into the starting role.  If he had, he would have been starting a long time ago.

I think Risacher can ride the bench for a few years at least.  He's been fine in preseason doing just that. You're 100% right though that we didn't draft him #1 overall to be a career sub.  It's just that if we can get an impact player (even if it's not MPJ), I worry less about fit.  Figure the fit out later.

I know we didnt bench him per se.. My point is, he never got the chance to be the starter after we traded for Capela.

That's crazy for top 6 pick...

Much less the #1 pick in the draft...

Either way, I just cant see paying the max for a spot up shooter(who's had 3 back surgeries) who cant really defend...

Edited 15 hours ago by terrell

[bird_dirt]

We’d be trading two injury prone players for one which is a positive for me. Opens more playing time for ZR & Vit theoretically. 

I'm all for trading Bogi while his stock is high and trading Hunter while his stock is still meh. 
Like everyone else , MPJs cap hold is the biggest issue with him. But that’s also why he’s available. 

I’m not fretting over C yet. We have OO CC Nance and Zeller. It’s not great, but they’re all replacement level talent that may be good enough for this year. Maybe next year we can find one before maxing JJ out if nothing pans out by the deadline. 

I’m leaning 55/45% in favor of the trade. 5% swing either way depending on whose comment I read the most recently. I’m a fence sitter. 

[kg01]

1 minute ago, bird_dirt said:

We’d be trading two injury prone players for one which is a positive for me. Opens more playing time for ZR & Vit theoretically. 

I'm all for trading Bogi while his stock is high and trading Hunter while his stock is still meh. 
Like everyone else , MPJs cap hold is the biggest issue with him. But that’s also why he’s available. 

I’m not fretting over C yet. We have OO CC Nance and Zeller. It’s not great, but they’re all replacement level talent that may be good enough for this year. Maybe next year we can find one before maxing JJ out if nothing pans out by the deadline. 

I’m leaning 55/45% in favor of the trade. 5% swing either way depending on whose comment I read the most recently. I’m a fence sitter. 

What'll it take to sway to to the 'no' column?

5?  10?

To be clear, we're talkin' cents.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, Wretch said:

We didn't bench OO.  He never played into the starting role.  If he had, he would have been starting a long time ago.

I think Risacher can ride the bench for a few years at least.  He's been fine in preseason doing just that. You're 100% right though that we didn't draft him #1 overall to be a career sub.  It's just that if we can get an impact player (even if it's not MPJ), I worry less about fit.  Figure the fit out later.

The MPJ thing has very little impact on Risacher.  I see Risacher, Dyson, and MPJ getting most of the wing minutes if that trade happens.  It's enough PT for everybody.    

Dyson is so integrative, can even guard 4's.  We got these guys partially because they are fluid and can play with a lot of other skill profiles.  

[AHF]

3 hours ago, terrell said:

I know we didnt bench him per se.. My point is, he never got the chance to be the starter after we traded for Capela.

That's crazy for top 6 pick...

Much less the #1 pick in the draft...

Either way, I just cant see paying the max for a spot up shooter(who's had 3 back surgeries) who cant really defend...

I would not say he never had a chance to be the starter.  His health got in the way.  Availability is the most important ability as they say.  See last year.  CC got hurt so OO went on a streak of nice games as the starter.  Then OO suffered yet another injury.  You can't seize the job when you can't stay on the floor.

He also didn't perform as well as CC.  The fact that neither Nate nor Quin turned the role over to OO, imo, says that both thought CC was the better option.  That doesn't mean you didn't have a chance to be a starter but when the starter is outperforming you then it is on you for failing to seize the job.  And I'm not just talking about the defensive force that Capela was during the ECF run.  Last year Capela played 25.8 minutes a game.  OO played 25.5 minutes a game.  What did they average in the same amount of time?

Clint:  11.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 0.6 steals

OO:  10.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, 0.5 steals

OO needs to look in the mirror to see who has kept him out of the starting role not to the coach or front office.

[Wretch]

4 hours ago, terrell said:

I know we didnt bench him per se.. My point is, he never got the chance to be the starter after we traded for Capela.

That's crazy for top 6 pick...

Much less the #1 pick in the draft...

Either way, I just cant see paying the max for a spot up shooter(who's had 3 back surgeries) who cant really defend...

No argument about his contract.  If he were paid less, this deal wouldn't even be on the table.  It's not about MPJ though.  Players that draw a lot of attention to the paint need shooters.  This is LeBron, Giannis, Shaq, Dwight Howard, etc.  You put shooters around these guys to open the game up.

He's not a big, but Trae draws that same kind of gravity to the paint.  We rode that all the way to the ECF's and it all that came to a screeching halt when teams started packing the lane and forcing another Hawk to step up.  We haven't recovered since.  DJM was an failed experiment to alleviate the problem and get Trae off the ball.

Trae needs a big man that can command a double and pass it out or he needs shot up shooters (both is a championship formula).  MPJ is an elite shooter and MUCH better rebounder than Dre.  He's an ideal fit if he's healthy.  We're overpaying on the contract sure, but I don't care about that mediocre 1st or the loss of depth.

As far as OO...  The front office made a commitment to win games.  Capela didn't block OO's growth, he was brought in as a veteran to help Trae compete.  He was not our C of the future.  The plan was always to groom OO for that.  Be it health or performance, he never took the leap and we're still waiting.

If we're tryin to win games, then starting a rookie probably isn't the best bet.  This isn't a thing for playoff teams.  Not unless the rookie is just sensational.  In which case, there's no one in the front court that will keep him on the bench regardless of what moves we make.  That said, unless one of these tall dudes can guard the two, a decision on the wings would have to be made between Risacher, MPJ, and JJ

Defensively...I don't know that MPJ is a bad defender.  I think he's probably an average defender, but because he's not a defensive standout people immediately scream "HELL NAW WE NEED SOME DEFANSE!" and all of a sudden everyone who isn't DD is a liability.  I don't follow him that tight, but whatever he is defensively...it hasn't stopped Denver from contending and winning a title. 

They found a way to make it work, but his back will always make you question if he has mobility issues on D.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 hours ago, macdaddy said:

MPJ is fine it's just the contract makes it double risky.  If Trae/MPJ/JJ are making 120million i'm not sure how we build around that.  Plus it's 3 guys making in the 30, 35m+ that aren't perennial all stars (even if one should be). 

It's interesting but seems like a reach.  

It would REQUIRE Messy Ressy to be WILLING to pay the TAX.

Hawks are in possession of a $26 million TPE to use next offseason.

[deester11]

5 hours ago, AtLaS said:

He's not.  MPJ is not a max player.  He plays with Jokic.  His PER is like 17.  Giving up that much value PLUS a first for an overpaid, injury risk player isn't something I want to do.  Plus it solidifies ZR as a bench player for the next 3 years.  How do we address C after that?  MPJ doesn't make us a contender.  

MPJ is also not a good defensive player so we get worse defensively.

And noone has addressed the salary cap restriction that you are only allowed to have 2 rookie max players on your roster (Trae/MPJ).  If JJ has a breakout year we can't give him the max.  

Yap gotta stop with that. If Hunter is good defensively, MPJ is. Better defensive stats mean nothing? Look it up. You do not get worse IMHO. And the fit with Trae is much better than Trae has had. I present that Trae, ZR, MPJ, JJ, DD alone are problems. HOWEVER, still not enough. Pass..but not for the reasons I keep seeing.

Edited 10 hours ago by deester11

[ShayD]

If they don't care about the tax or defense or health or depth then it's fine, just do not overpay for another mid player but is on a ridiculous contract. Take Bogi and the first out of the deal. Give them hunter and whatever else. The DJM trade should have taught them to never overpay for mid, no matter what.

Edited 10 hours ago by ShayD

[JayBirdHawk]

5 hours ago, AtLaS said:

And noone has addressed the salary cap restriction that you are only allowed to have 2 rookie max players on your roster (Trae/MPJ).  If JJ has a breakout year we can't give him the max.  

I think the new CBA changed that. Plus we can just pay JJ $1 less than the max to circumvent that rule 

[phoostal]

I find interesting Hunter had hardly played in the preseason, wonder if they are holding him out for a reason