Did we get enough value in the Murray trade?

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Might be time for an avatar change then....incoming.

Perfect.  Now it just looks like Moe

[Watchman]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Might be time for an avatar change then....incoming.

Oh No!!!  I didn't mean to run you off Ralphie,...er, Zach.  Shucks.

[JayBirdHawk]

54 minutes ago, Watchman said:

Oh No!!!  I didn't mean to run you off Ralphie,...er, Zach.  Shucks.

It was due an update with September rolling in...time to get ready for training camp starting end of September.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Quote

Nique on the Murray/Trae pairing

His opinion on the Hawks’ failed experiment with Dejounte Murray and Trae Young or their selection of Zaccharie Risacher with the No. 1 overall pick holds more weight than it may seem. 

“I love Dejounte Murray. He was good for us. But sometimes things just don't work,” Wilkins said on the “All The Smoke” podcast on September 5. “I thought we had really the most dynamic backcourt in the league. But sometimes it don't work that way. And so Trae is a guy with a big personality on our team and he's a guy who's – that's your leader. That's your leader, and that's the guy that is gonna, hopefully, get you to that next level.”

Much has been made about the Hawks’ decision to trade Murray, who starts a four-year, $114 million contract in 2024-25 instead of Young who has three years remaining on his five-year, $215.1 million pact.

Both players have player options in 2026-27.

However, Murray’s cheaper cost only enhanced the fact that he is also the bigger option and, thus, less of a defensive liability.

Young expressed similar sentiments about the pairing, noting his excitement over the trade to bring Murray to Atlanta in 2022. The duo went 55-62 in their two seasons together, making the postseason in 2022-23 but losing to the Boston Celtics in six games.

“To be honest it was a great – I mean it was good and bad,” Young said on the “Podcast P” podcast in August. “The only bad part is we didn't get to win as much as we wanted to. To be honest with you. the good part is we have a lifelong relationship. Our relationship goes outside of basketball.

“It sucks and we both admit it sucks, and that's just part of the game. If it doesn't work teams have to figure out what to do next and make moves.”

Murray said similar things about their fit and relationship. He was also happy about the trade.

[Final_quest]

Taking another step back you can look at this trade as what we got for Gallo expiring salary, Cam, and Huerter plus our 2025-2027 pick configuration.  Murray is neutralized as coming in and going out.

We have received Dyson, Nance, Vit, and Garrison.  Picks coming in Lakers 2025, Kings 2025, and lesser of Bucks/Pelicans 2027.  

A lot depends on where the picks fall on both sides.  Two picks and a swap going out and three picks coming in.  If any of the picks turn into high lottery it changes the deal significantly. 

 

[AHF]

27 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Taking another step back you can look at this trade as what we got for Gallo expiring salary, Cam, and Huerter plus our 2025-2027 pick configuration.  Murray is neutralized as coming in and going out.

We have received Dyson, Nance, Vit, and Garrison.  Picks coming in Lakers 2025, Kings 2025, and lesser of Bucks/Pelicans 2027.  

A lot depends on where the picks fall on both sides.  Two picks and a swap going out and three picks coming in.  If any of the picks turn into high lottery it changes the deal significantly. 

 

I do think you can get some additional insight by focusing on the two trades, though.  DM was in a very different position in the two times he was traded.

Leaving SA, he was 25 years old coming off of a breakout season where he made his first All-Star team and an All-NBA defensive team.  He was a question mark given that his previous two seasons he was 11 and 4 and 16 and 5.  He was under team control on a great contract for just two years before he became an UFA.

Leaving ATL, he was 27 years old coming off of three consecutive seasons of 20+ and 6+.  He had showed he wasn't a fit at SG and needed to play PG again.  He was under team control on a good contract for four years before he will become an UFA.

In short, leaving SA there was the prospect of a lower floor and higher ceiling and only two years of team control.  Leaving Atlanta, he had a proven higher floor and lower ceiling with a strong four years of team control.  

Definitely more risk and reward leaving SA and a more secure bet coming out of Atlanta.  I'm going to be very interested in seeing what he does in NO given that their overall team fit is going to be strained with DM, McCollum and Ingram all on the same roster.  Feels like a trade really needs to happen there.  I bet they are praying that Ingram has a blistering start to the season and they can unload him as soon as possible.

[macdaddy]

SA sold very high on DJ.  I think we sold pretty high too and feel fortunate to have gotten the deal we did.   I hope he thrives in Nola but i have a lot of doubts. 

[JeffS17]

When we originally traded for DJ:

• 2 unprotected picks
• 1 protected pick
• 1 swap
• We traded out bad expiring salary, Gallo, $5M if i recall

Agree with AHF there was more volatility in the expected outcome when we traded for Murray.  We got him on a deal that was 14% of the cap and 2 years of team control.

We traded him out for:

• Dyson (I view this as an unprotected first or better but I'm high on Dyson who was drafted 8th)
• Nance
• 1 unprotected pick
• 1 protected pick (roughly the same value as the protected pick going out imo)
• Bad salary in, Zeller, $3.5M

An important point here is that when we traded DJ out, he had 1 additional year of team control (3), but he was on a materially less valuable contract at 21% of the cap.  The difference boils down to, roughly, we are down a pick swap and up Nance, but Murray's contract is +7% of cap space.  IMO we got marginally better return than what we sent for him.  The painful part of the experiment is the lost 2 years, but the fit is significantly better now and roster is on the right track.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

When we originally traded for DJ:

• 2 unprotected picks
• 1 protected pick
• 1 swap
• We traded out bad expiring salary, Gallo, $5M if i recall

Agree with AHF there was more volatility in the expected outcome when we traded for Murray.  We got him on a deal that was 14% of the cap and 2 years of team control.

We traded him out for:

• Dyson (I view this as an unprotected first or better but I'm high on Dyson who was drafted 8th)
• Nance
• 1 unprotected pick
• 1 protected pick (roughly the same value as the protected pick going out imo)
• Bad salary in, Zeller, $3.5M

An important point here is that when we traded DJ out, he had 1 additional year of team control (3), but he was on a materially less valuable contract at 21% of the cap.  The difference boils down to, roughly, we are down a pick swap and up Nance, but Murray's contract is +7% of cap space.  IMO we got marginally better return than what we sent for him.  The painful part of the experiment is the lost 2 years, but the fit is significantly better now and roster is on the right track.

Just for comparing items, I would assess them like this:

Protected picks cancel out - agree

Atlanta 2027 unprotected pick > Dyson (I don't think SA would trade that pick for Dyson - there are definitely scenarios where this pick is massive value)

2026 Pick swap >> Nance (Nance is very short-term whereas the pick swap can be substantial long-term value)

Atlanta 2025 unprotected pick = LA 2025 unprotected pick (LA is projected to be better than Atlanta by Vegas but this is close enough)

Gallo > Zeller (the reason Gallo is much easier for SA to eat than Zeller is for ATL is that SA was tanking after trading DM so taking on dead salary wasn't a concern at all whereas Zeller eats up a roster spot, forced us to cut Bruno, and eats into our cap space which is minimum and thus at a premium as we do our best to compete) [also notable is that Gallo had to be included to make the deal work whereas there was zero reason we had to take Zeller other than Schlenk telling us to **** ourselves]

[Gray Mule]

QUESTION:  Did we get enough in the Murray trade?  ANSWER:  Yes.

[Final_quest]

The main impact of the Murray trade so far is knowing you can’t tank for the next three years.  
The players and picks lost and gained are comparable.  

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

The main impact of the Murray trade so far is knowing you can’t tank for the next three years.  

Definitely agree with this.  As part of it, I'd say you have to retain Trae or trade him for value as well.  You can't fire sale him or let him walk.  You can't afford to have him lose confidence in the front office which could end up resulting in a fire sale or him walking.