Did we get enough value in the Murray trade?

[AHF]

2 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

We got 4 assets for DJM.  2 premium assets and 2 lesser assets but still pieces that have value.  That's not "leaving money on the table" for him.  I don't think he's worth much, if any, more than that.  He's probably a Top 10-15 PG in the NBA and Top 50-75 player in the NBA.  Mikal Bridges was traded for 5 1sts.  Murray was traded for 3 1sts plus a rotational vet big. 

It seems like you are being overly pessimistic about what we are receiving as a manner of continuing the line of dissatisfaction with the FO.  You undervalue the return and overvalue DJM in an effort to prove that the FO isn't doing their job. 

I disagree that the Lakers pick is not a real, valuable asset.  I disagree that Daniels is just a small rotational piece.  I disagree that DJM should be valued as a prime asset.  I disagree that Nance should be looked at as filler.  I disagree that the pick swap isn't a real pick.  I realize you personally may not have asserted each and every one of these statements, but you have some and I've read all of them on this board. 

Reading the board the last few days just seems a lot like folks going from upset about non trades and lack of FAs and as a result, the actual work they have done to improve the team gets minimized and written off as even that is a failure.    

Detroit got 5 assets for Bey.  Did they get more than us?  Of course not.

dyson is an asset with moderate value

the Lakers pick is a moderate value first round pick (nothing like a tanking teams pick and likely middle of the round but upside)

the protected pick is a low value 2027 pick

Nance is extremely low value as an expiring 32 year old bench player

These are not very good assets for DJM,  I can imagine worse deals but Herb Jones is worth more than all of them by way of example.  This is not a rich return. 
 

This is leaving money in the table because a reasonable return for DJM is more than this.

[bird_dirt]

10 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

In all seriousness, I think whether we can develop Daniels into a serviceable player on offense is my measuring stick with this trade.  Picks are great but its tough to hindsight them too much.  The decision to execute this trade primarily depends on how much upside the FO thinks Daniels has and their confidence tapping into it.

Of course, we needed to offload Murray regardless, so if this was the best deal available, it is what it is.  Not moving him would have been a disaster of an offseason.

Agreed 

9 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

.  I may be wrong.  Wouldn't be the first time and not the last.

Same

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

In all seriousness, I think whether we can develop Daniels into a serviceable player on offense is my measuring stick with this trade.  Picks are great but its tough to hindsight them too much.  The decision to execute this trade primarily depends on how much upside the FO thinks Daniels has and their confidence tapping into it.

Of course, we needed to offload Murray regardless, so if this was the best deal available, it is what it is.  Not moving him would have been a disaster of an offseason.

This is a good summary.  The deal is based as if we already successfully tapped into Daniels potential and made him a complete player.  If he becomes what we hope he becomes the trade is fair along with the picks.  If he exceeds that expectation of being a defensive standout who becomes solid on offense then it can be a win.  If he only improves modestly from where he is today the deal is a loss.

We seem to have baked his development into the baseline price as if it is a given while NO gets the finished player under 4 years of team control for their bench wing, bench big man, a moderately good future pick, and a likely late round first.  This is why money was left on the table and we should have gotten more.

[JeffS17]

14 minutes ago, AHF said:

This is a good summary.  The deal is based as if we already successfully tapped into Daniels potential and made him a complete player.  If he becomes what we hope he becomes the trade is fair along with the picks.  If he exceeds that expectation of being a defensive standout who becomes solid on offense then it can be a win.  If he only improves modestly from where he is today the deal is a loss.

We seem to have baked his development into the baseline price as if it is a given while NO gets the finished player under 4 years of team control for their bench wing, bench big man, a moderately good future pick, and a likely late round first.  This is why money was left on the table and we should have gotten more.

IMO, if his development was baked into the deal, we wouldnt have received any picks at all.  Hes already far superior to DJ on defense and already has good off ball instincts on offense and can play make to a degree.  If he rounds out his offensive game, he’ll be a straight up more impactful player than DJ, so if that development was baked in, no picks for us in my opinion.  The picks cover the risk we’re taking.

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

IMO, if his development was baked into the deal, we wouldnt have received any picks at all.  Hes already far superior to DJ on defense and already has good off ball instincts on offense and can play make to a degree.  If he rounds out his offensive game, he’ll be a straight up more impactful player than DJ, so if that development was baked in, no picks for us in my opinion.  The picks cover the risk we’re taking.

Wow.  You definitely value him way more than most Squawkers and all NBA GMs.

No wonder you think this trade is a fantastic return.

[REHawksFan]

13 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

IMO, if his development was baked into the deal, we wouldnt have received any picks at all.  Hes already far superior to DJ on defense and already has good off ball instincts on offense and can play make to a degree.  If he rounds out his offensive game, he’ll be a straight up more impactful player than DJ, so if that development was baked in, no picks for us in my opinion.  The picks cover the risk we’re taking.

This is exactly right, imo. DD is being undervalued on the Squawk and DJ is being overvalued. 

[AHF]

Give me some numbers for what to expect from Daniels.  Becomes a starter and plays around 30 mpg.  All-NBA defense combined with 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game?  Is that about what people are expecting?

[JeffS17]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

Wow.  You definitely value him way more than most Squawkers and all NBA GMs.

No wonder you think this trade is a fantastic return.

No, I think it was fair value and I'm happy with it [because it solved our most poignant roster issue], as I stated earlier (see below) in a comment you read and replied to.

6 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

And I'm not advocating this deal was a home run by any means-- it was a pretty fair value deal for both teams.  We fixed issues in our fit and got a player with good upside.  I'm happy with it but I'm by no means "caping" for Landry with these posts.  The jury is still out on Landry as we haven't seen much, yet.  The only thing I'm "caping" for is sanity and rational arguments.

Your crusade around this trade is baffling.  I don't get why you keep misstating facts around it and fabricating scenarios to slander Landry.    It's a done deal.  We're a better team for it.

[Threezus]

It honestly depends who you ask and how they like a team built.  I have seen a ton of fans of other teams completely trash the trade and then others think the Pels were dumb and got screwed over in the trade.  Because they didn't believe in Murray and thought Daniels was a really good up and coming player.    I personally think it was a pretty fair trade for both sides getting what they need to put around their star players.    Trae and Murray both great players just didn't work out together for obvious reasons.  Daniels on the other hand is the correct type of player you need around trae and has the upside if his shot comes around to be better than murray.  His defense is already better and can guard more positions,  But he is quite a bit a way from murray on the offensive side as he sits.   2 1sts and a solid PF makes up that difference easily for me between murray and daniels.    I think Daniels by himself could still get a 1st round pick somewhere in a trade so i valued the trade as  3 1sts and Nance in value   thats not much different than what we gave up and murray is older and more expensive now.  So overall it's a fair trade and i think we got the better type of players and depth we need around trae.   If those 2 1sts become anything good at all even in another trade then we came out on top a better team.

[Threezus]

Just now, AHF said:

Give me some numbers for what to expect from Daniels.  Becomes a starter and plays around 30 mpg.  All-NBA defense combined with 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game?  Is that about what people are expecting?

Honestly i think thats fair and i would gladly accept that if it improves our defense as a whole and allows other players to defend better as well not having to do as much. 

[Gray Mule]

21 minutes ago, AHF said:

Wow.  You definitely value him way more than most Squawkers and all NBA GMs.

No wonder you think this trade is a fantastic return.

As they said about the fat girl, "Time will tell!"

[NBASupes]

19 hours ago, AHF said:

The trade makes us better but the return on the trade should have been better.  
 

Value of assets:

1) LA pick.  We get more for this than any other part of the trade.  Odds are that Dyson will be better because the pick won’t be that high but it could be huge.

2) Dyson.  A nice rotation piece with upside to one day be a complete player.  Brings much needed POA defense.  A clear future with the team.  If we don’t sign a backup PG, he should get some minutes there (as well as SG) along with Bufkin backing up Trae.

3) The double protected 2027 pick.  Not only the worst of two teams with nice core pieces (MVP and a bunch of 20 somethings), but even if we get incredibly lucky and both teams miss the playoffs and both picks win top 4 spots in the lottery now we give that up too.  What a **** job of negotiating on this.  Two layers of protection really suck a lot of the value out of this one.

4) Nance.  A one year and done useful bench player.  Very low value.  No future with the team.  Because we have zero depth at PF behind JJ this is slightly more than just the filler it is from NO’s perspective.  This part of the trade is the win/win people would like to label the entire trade.  NO wants to dump his salary and we can use the depth even if we can’t trade him for anything.  Works reasonably well for both sides.

5) Liddel.  Forgettable enough that I forgot to list him.  NO wanted off of his salary.  I have zero expectations for him but welcome being positively surprised if he is a useful part of the rotation in the next two seasons.

6) Zeller.  Negative value asset.  We used a roster spot on him that would be better spent on another player.

This is a suboptimal return.  It isn’t the worst thing out there but if Landry wants to make this team a contender he has to do better in the future.

To be clear.  This trade should absolutely make us better but that is not a useful criteria for measuring the trade.  Limiting DJM to only playing when Trae is not on the floor makes us better.  Making us better is a very low bar to clear.  Maximizing return on the trade is the goal and measuring stick.  That is where we fall short.

While LAL fans won't like this, I expect them to be the same tier as us. 

Which is .500, maybe a few games above it or below it based on fit and injuries. 

Last year. They had a tremendous bill of health and won 47 games. I am not expecting that again. I am expecting the usual. I do see them around 12th seed in the west. Houston is a team that i have right there with them. Just having a year of Steven Adams will be dynamic for their bench. They are all fighting for a play in spot 

Golden State and Sacramento have improved and both had a bad bill of health last year. I have them around the same exact record just due to the difficulties of the West. 

Phoenix as quiet as people have been has significantly improved. They should be a top 5 team in the West. 

Memphis takes a jump back to the top with health and Edey. 

Spurs should join the Lakers, Hawks, and Rockets in that tier. 

The Blazers which would actually be one of the better bad teams in the east is gonna finish last and bad. 

The Jazz will finish poorly and they aren't even bad. There is gonna to be a near .500 team in the West that will finish 13th. 

I think the bottom 8 teams are set right now:

Pistons which did get better but still suck

Wizards, should be awful

Hornets took a leap from bad to below average but that's not a huge jump. The Hornets are interesting if Mark Williams can stay healthy. They are a massively different team with him. Without him, they aren't any good. 

Raptors looks decent on paper but the fit and bill of health looked rough. They also didn't really have a good style of play. Maybe they make the just to solid team like Atlanta but if last year was any indication, they might be like last year's Hawks where the fits don't fit and it's just confirmation. 

Nets are bad and are tanking

Bulls are bad and are tanking. 

Miami is average at times and contenders at times. Their inconsistency in the regular season been pretty normal but as long as they remain overall solid, they should be a 42-46 win team. 

Hawks are solid. Last year, they were average. The year before, average. So I do believe they improved but I don't see a major leap. They don't have many holes but they don't have this talented squad. Even though the fit should be better than ever before with Trae, I don't know if they have the talent to be more than solid at best. Luka turns squads like this to WCF contenders. Trae has to show that growth or he is who they think he is. 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Gray Mule said:

As they said about the fat girl, "Time will tell!"

If that expectation plays out this will end up a great trade.  I just think you have to look at it based on where people and picks are valued today.  If LA wins 50 games next year it doesn’t make the trade right now any better or worse and if Daniels ends up spitting the bit or becoming an All-Star it also doesn’t change  how well optimized the trade is.  You have to base that on current values.

(By way of an extreme example, trading DJM for the #41 pick in the draft would be a terribly suboptimal trade even if they pick is used to select Nikola Jokic.  Reality is you could get that pick for cheaper and still get Jokic if you can see the future like that and so the trade would be a disaster eve if you ended up with the league MVP.)

[REHawksFan]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

Give me some numbers for what to expect from Daniels.  Becomes a starter and plays around 30 mpg.  All-NBA defense combined with 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game?  Is that about what people are expecting?

I think he's a starter from day 1 next to Trae.  I think he massively improves the defense and has potential for all defense.

Offensively, I expect him to immediately be a legit secondary ball handler. I think 15 pts / 7-8reb / 6-7 ast is reasonable. I could see more points if and when his shot improves. I think he could reasonably end the year in the 34% range from 3pt. 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, REHawksFan said:

I think he's a starter from day 1 next to Trae.  I think he massively improves the defense and has potential for all defense.

Offensively, I expect him to immediately be a legit secondary ball handler. I think 15 pts / 7-8reb / 6-7 ast is reasonable. I could see more points if and when his shot improves. I think he could reasonably end the year in the 34% range from 3pt. 

Thanks.  That is a good benchmark.

[BrazilianHawk]

1 hour ago, dalamchops said:

Lakers are one AD/LBJ injury away from giving us a top 10 pick. I also like DD a lot, i think he has a lot more offensive potential than someone like thybulle, and hopefully snyder can unlock that.

Yeah... that could be good, but counting on injuries goes both ways.. We could give SA a top 5 pick, it would only take a Trae injury.

I don't think the Hawks will even sniff the playoffs this season. 

[JayBirdHawk]

Year 3 

Trey Murphy: 29.6 mpg: 14.8 ppg (10.9 attempts)/4.9 rpg/2.2 apg

Herb Jones: 30.5 mpg: 11.0 ppg/3.6rpg/2.6 apg/1.2 spg

Can Dyson have a similar year 3 leap and fall in the middle of his old teammates? He's not the shooter Trey is, especially from 3, and his freethrow shooting is miserable which if he doesn't fix will affect his ppg. I think he'll be better at rebounding, assists, steals than both.

[Threezus]

6 hours ago, Hawkmoor said:

If you call giving up a Mclaren P1 GTR for a couple of Yugos as value, then yes, the Hawks got good value.

 

I like the analogy but the cars based on value of each thing are pretty far off imo XD   Murray is a good player but he ain't not elite super car type of player LOL.  If i had to put both things received in cars for me it would be something like this.

Murray is a newer mustang GT - Very quality piece of machine that can out do most normal cars and is reliable you know what you are getting in it and can run with some lower end supercars.  But won't hang with the elites of the world like that Mclaren. 

Daniels i would say is a C5 Z06 - What he does he does very well (defense) and if you have time to put work into him and build around his better base(all around size and game) he has the potential to be better than that newer mustang GT. 

The 2 1sts and Nance are just some extra power adder pieces you can pair with that vette hopefully 1 of those 1sts becomes a supercharger and a supercharged c5 kicks that mustangs azz 24/7 

1st time i ever turned players into cars that was sorta fun

[JeffS17]

15 minutes ago, BrazilianHawk said:

Yeah... that could be good, but counting on injuries goes both ways.. We could give SA a top 5 pick, it would only take a Trae injury.

I don't think the Hawks will even sniff the playoffs this season. 

Trae is 25 and has been an iron man for us.  I actually think even with health, this Lakers team isnt better than an 9th seed.  I have Denver, OKC, Dallas, Minnesota, Phoenix, NO, Sac, and Warriors ahead of them.  Record wise, probably around .500 or a little worse.  The non-AD minutes are going to be brutal for that squad.  I’m not sure they have another plus defender on the whole roster.  Maybe Vanderbilt?  Gabe is okay but small.

[JeffS17]

7 minutes ago, Threezus said:

I like the analogy but the cars based on value of each thing are pretty far off imo XD   Murray is a good player but he ain't not elite super car type of player LOL.  If i had to put both things received in cars for me it would be something like this.

Murray is a newer mustang GT - Very quality piece of machine that can out do most normal cars and is reliable you know what you are getting in it and can run with some lower end supercars.  But won't hang with the elites of the world like that Mclaren. 

Daniels i would say is a C5 Z06 - What he does he does very well (defense) and if you have time to put work into him and build around his better base(all around size and game) he has the potential to be better than that newer mustang GT. 

The 2 1sts and Nance are just some extra power adder pieces you can pair with that vette hopefully 1 of those 1sts becomes a supercharger and a supercharged c5 kicks that mustangs azz 24/7 

1st time i ever turned players into cars that was sorta fun

As soon as you started referring to a car model as a combination of letters and numbers I was lost lol