Did we get enough value in the Murray trade?

[Spud2nique]

3 minutes ago, Afro said:

Him tripling his PPG on 33% more mpg is a huge ask. This puts him somewhere close to tied with the expected output from actual scorers like Bogi and Zacc. 

For a guy that shot 64% FT and scored 6ppg in 22 minutes. To me, that it just asking a ton of DD, regardless of a scheme change. 

Idk how we got to this point and it makes me nervous if this is what we're gonna judge the trade on. 

I'm not shitting on DD at all here, kind of the opposite. 

Ok gimme your stats tough guy. 

[Afro]

I'd also just like to note those Drexler and Drazen increases came on the backs of almost double the minutes. Which is usually how this goes. 

For DD to double his minutes, he needs to play 44 minutes a game lol. 

[Afro]

3 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Ok gimme your stats tough guy. 

I think somewhere between 10-12ppg is reasonable. 

IF he learns how to consistently shoot, we might see 15+ in a few years, but I don't think anyone is gonna wait that long to judge the deal lol. 

[Spud2nique]

6 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Where you been Big Mac???

Hey how come I don’t get a cool nickname like that when I don’t show up for a minute. I know you got some good ones jefe!

I like Spuderoni (tenda)  

 

myyyyyyy heeeeearrrtttt belongs to A RONI!!!! Sheeessssss myyyyyyyyyyy only giiiiirlllllll  

 

 

[Spud2nique]

3 minutes ago, Afro said:

I'd also just like to note those Drexler and Drazen increases came on the backs of almost double the minutes. Which is usually how this goes. 

For DD to double his minutes, he needs to play 44 minutes a game lol. 

Ok I sprinkled a lil Hawks optimism on his stats but don’t tell anyone they prolly won’t be able to taste it anyhoo. 
 

It’ll be “our lil secret” .. like the basement thing when we were 6. 

[Afro]

5 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Ok I sprinkled a lil Hawks optimism on his stats but don’t tell anyone they prolly won’t be able to taste it anyhoo. 
 

It’ll be “our lil secret” .. like the basement thing when we were 6. 

I won't tell a soul. 

I want DD to be good. I hope he does get to 15ppg quickly. 

This isn't directed at you either, but I just get the sense that a lot of people assume that DD was playing bit player minutes. Sort of like year 2 JJ. So they just assume "Oh he's gonna see a massive role increase so the scoring will increase with that like JJ". 

But he wasn't a bit player. Just a backup. JJ only played 15mpg in year 2 and then 34 in year 3. THAT'S a big jump. Not the 22 to 30 were expecting from DD. 

The closest comparison we have minutes per game wise on the roster would be OO. He played 25 minutes per game. 

Now are we expecting an entirely different level of offensive output from OO by giving him 5 more minutes as the starter? I don't think so. 

Edited July 8 by Afro

[deester11]

16 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

This is all based on the idea that DJ is worth a ton.  But if this isn't good return, and the whole league knew we were shopping him, how did we not get a better deal?   It's because the league knows his actual value vs what was propped up at the end of the season.  There's a reason a rebuilding Spurs team didn't want to keep him around.  

I'm not knocking him.  He's a great guy and a good player.  He's just not what people think he is. 

No. Not really. But to say he's not worthy of more..all subjective. In the role he played before Trae got hurt, he was less Murray than he was in SA. You saw him after..different player. I'm not saying he is top 20. Nor was I expecting a superstar in return. Possibly the Hawks got the best they could. But other than Daniels, you telling me Nance did it for you? Zeller? Liddell? The redeeming factor of the draft picks. Not the best or worse. Time..that's all that day what this is.

[JeffS17]

18 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Patiently waiting for the Hawks to make another move.......

[Spud2nique]

6 minutes ago, Afro said:

Now are we expecting an entirely different level of offensive output from OO by giving him 5 more minutes as the starter? I don't think so. 

I will say one thing about stats with OO and DD. They might not matter at all in the whole scheme of things. These two dude don’t strike me (and history has shown) them to be stat stuffers trying to get their own numbers, they care more about playing solid defense and getting wins imo. I actually love those type of dudes, the anti LUKA looking for that last rebound to get his triple double.

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, deester11 said:

No. Not really. But to say he's not worthy of more..all subjective. In the role he played before Trae got hurt, he was less Murray than he was in SA. You saw him after..different player. I'm not saying he is top 20. Nor was I expecting a superstar in return. Possibly the Hawks got the best they could. But other than Daniels, you telling me Nance did it for you? Zeller? Liddell? The redeeming factor of the draft picks. Not the best or worse. Time..that's all that day what this is.

Those guys were just filler although we needed a guy like Nance last year desperately so he may be good for us.  

Just seems to me that last thing you do before pulling the trigger is circle back with interested teams and say we're about to send him to nola unless you got something better.   Nothing better came up. 

 

[JeffS17]

5 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I will say one thing about stats with OO and DD. They might not matter at all in the whole scheme of things. These two dude don’t strike me (and history has shown) them to be stat stuffers trying to get their own numbers, they care more about playing solid defense and getting wins imo. I actually love those type of dudes, the anti LUKA looking for that last rebound to get his triple double.

Same here, it's why I hesitate to put stat expectations on Dyson.  My expectations for him are lots of altered shots, ball deflections, strong defense that leads to shot clock violations, cuts that pause the defense and open up space for others, running the floor and drawing defenders to free lanes for JJ, etc.  If he is who I think he is, he's that key role player that helps teams win but gets no credit from lazy pundits or casual fans.  OO can be that too I think.  I wish he got to play when they let teams D-up last year (after all-star break).  OO + no ticky tacky fouls = defensive monster

[Hawkish]

15 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Is this how the front office feels after a deal falls through or you have to make a concession?  

[deester11]

2 minutes ago, Hawkish said:

Is this how the front office feels after a deal falls through or you have to make a concession?  

You are correct...lmao 

[Afro]

18 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I will say one thing about stats with OO and DD. They might not matter at all in the whole scheme of things. These two dude don’t strike me (and history has shown) them to be stat stuffers trying to get their own numbers, they care more about playing solid defense and getting wins imo. I actually love those type of dudes, the anti LUKA looking for that last rebound to get his triple double.

Yup, that's also my point. I'm expecting/hoping for something similarish to the Jrue we saw in the playoffs. 

I just don't want people to be disappointed with DD and judge the deal off of his scoring output. (ima judge it off the Lakers pick lol) 

Now, with that said, I do still have some offensive worries, but that'll mostly be about lineups. Hawks currently have only 4 guys who can even begin to be expected to score. Zacc is the 5th, but he's 19, so I'm not *expecting* that. 

Trae, Bogi, JJ, Hunter. Now currently you can have one of them on the floor at all times. But if Trae and Bogi are ever off together, I'd expect those results to go down significantlan

And if Bogi goes down...woof. It's Trae, JJ, and a whole bunch of dudes that can't effeciently get their own shot. Like at all lol. 

Edited July 8 by Afro

[kg01]

32 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Hey how come I don’t get a cool nickname like that when I don’t show up for a minute. I know you got some good ones jefe!

I like Spuderoni (tenda)  

 

myyyyyyy heeeeearrrtttt belongs to A RONI!!!! Sheeessssss myyyyyyyyyyy only giiiiirlllllll  

 

 

I would ask @JeffS17 to give me a nickname but I'm scared of what he'd come up with... 

[REHawksFan]

37 minutes ago, Afro said:

This post isn't directed at you, but I think it's well organized so it's the best one to respond to lol. 

Are you saying that's this year? Or just some point in the future? 

I just want to give some statistical context, because I see a lot of "he will definitely explode with more minutes". 

His minutes per game went up from 17 to 22 from year one to year 2. We're expecting a jump from 22 to 30ish probably in year 3. 

In year 2 he averaged 6,3, 4, and 1.5 steals in 22mpg. 

Those numbers saw an increase of +2, +.5, +.5, +.7 from year 1 to 2 with  the 5mpg increase. 

This is where I start to think some of these projections are unreasonable and a bit unfair to DD. In year 3? Absolutely. But some are projecting that some of his counting stats will more than double, immediately, with 8 more mpg, and I just don't see where that's a fair thing to put on DD. 

I think you and others are missing a very vital point in this discussion.  

It's not just that DD is going to get an extra 8 min a game.  Rather, the ROLE of DD is going to change completely.  I didn't watch a lot of NOP games this year but I have listened to a few podcasts with people that covered the Pels and they all indicated that DD was a backup player, used predominantly for his defense and not considered a key part of any offensive game plan.  He was probably the 8th or 9th option offensively.  

When I look at his game log this year, he attempted more than 8 shots SEVEN times all season while attempting less than 5 shots 31 times.  That's an offensive role that is more similar to Kobi Bufkin, Garrison Mathews, and Vit Krejci than it is to a rotational player.  The Hawks traded for him to be a much more significant part of the team - offensively and defensively.  It's not about his minutes increasing.  I think his FGAs will increase dramatically.  I think he should get 11-14 shots a game (similar to Bey, Hunter, and Bogi this year), a lot of those at the rim from Trae.  If his attempts goes from 5.1/game to 11 or 12 per game, his points can easily go from 5.8/game to 14 or 15 per game. 

As the roster stands today, the Hawks have lost 30 FGAs per game between DJM and Bey.  The only players we've added that figure to get rotational minutes are Risacher and Daniels with Nance getting much fewer.  Even if Trae, Bogi, Hunter, and JJ all increase their FGA slightly, there's still some 20-22 attempts per game that will be spread between Risacher and Daniels.   It's pretty easy to see Daniels getting 11 or 12 shots per game, imo.  If he shows absolutely no improvement whatsoever on his efficiency, that's 13.6 pts on 12 attempts.  And I think playing with Trae and in Quin's system will help him improve a bit.  So 15 or 16 pts, to me, is not that big of a stretch.  

 

[JeffS17]

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I would ask @JeffS17 to give me a nickname but I'm scared of what he'd come up with... 

The big ticket, maybe? Doesn't KG stand for Kevin Garnett??  

[deester11]

4 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I would ask @JeffS17 to give me a nickname but I'm scared of what he'd come up with... 

Letting @JeffS17 nickname you is a losing proposition. I don't need that in my life

[kg01]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

The big ticket, maybe? Doesn't KG stand for Kevin Garnett??  

I've never been more insulted than I am right now in this moment. 

Good thing I got a ringer to defend me... 

 Take it back, jeffe. And apologize. 

[JeffS17]

3 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I think you and others are missing a very vital point in this discussion.  

It's not just that DD is going to get an extra 8 min a game.  Rather, the ROLE of DD is going to change completely.  I didn't watch a lot of NOP games this year but I have listened to a few podcasts with people that covered the Pels and they all indicated that DD was a backup player, used predominantly for his defense and not considered a key part of any offensive game plan.  He was probably the 8th or 9th option offensively.  

When I look at his game log this year, he attempted more than 8 shots SEVEN times all season while attempting less than 5 shots 31 times.  That's an offensive role that is more similar to Kobi Bufkin, Garrison Mathews, and Vit Krejci than it is to a rotational player.  The Hawks traded for him to be a much more significant part of the team - offensively and defensively.  It's not about his minutes increasing.  I think his FGAs will increase dramatically.  I think he should get 11-14 shots a game (similar to Bey, Hunter, and Bogi this year), a lot of those at the rim from Trae.  If his attempts goes from 5.1/game to 11 or 12 per game, his points can easily go from 5.8/game to 14 or 15 per game. 

As the roster stands today, the Hawks have lost 30 FGAs per game between DJM and Bey.  The only players we've added that figure to get rotational minutes are Risacher and Daniels with Nance getting much fewer.  Even if Trae, Bogi, Hunter, and JJ all increase their FGA slightly, there's still some 20-22 attempts per game that will be spread between Risacher and Daniels.   It's pretty easy to see Daniels getting 11 or 12 shots per game, imo.  If he shows absolutely no improvement whatsoever on his efficiency, that's 13.6 pts on 12 attempts.  And I think playing with Trae and in Quin's system will help him improve a bit.  So 15 or 16 pts, to me, is not that big of a stretch.  

 

One specific thing I look forward to, and I hope we implement, is some Dyson Daniels PnR action that opens up his floater with Trae/Risacher on the perimeter.  Both Trae and Zach are excellent off the catch so any collapsing on 6'7" Daniels to take away the floater should open up the entire floor with an outlet pass.  He's a good enough passer now and I think he will improve as Quin will want to further unlock that part of his game.